Preview: Princeton vs. Missouri

Game	Princeton Tigers vs. Missouri Tigers
Date:	March 18th, 2023 6:10 PM
TV:	TNT

Preview

Princeton Offense vs. Missouri Defense

The Tigers are ranked 100th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Princeton shoots 54.3 percent on twos and 34.3 percent on threes for a 53.1 effective field goal percentage.

Missouri’s defense is ranked 176th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 51.7 percent on twos and 35.4 percent on threes for a 52.3 effective field goal percentage against the Tigers.

Basics

Missouri’s defense has been shutting teams down over the last month and is ranked 149th in adjusted defensive efficiency over that span compared to 176th for the season.
The Tigers have a size advantage on the perimeter as their guards rank in the 86th percentile size wise compared to Missouri’s guards which rank in the 29th percentile.
For better or worse, Princeton doesn’t stand out in any of the other four factors. The Tigers are right around Division I average in turnover rate, offensive rebounding rate and free-throw rate.
Princeton plays as fast as any team in the country. The Tigers average 70 possessions per game. Missouri also loves to play fast and averages 71 possessions per game
Missouri plays a notable amount of zone defense. The Tigers utilize zone defense on 19.7 percent of their defensive plays, per Synergy. That’s more than most Division I teams and they allow 0.92 points per play in zone defense. Princeton has done a great job of attacking zone defenses this year — 1.06 points per play — and that should help the Tigers create an offensive advantage.
Princeton does a great job attacking full-court pressure defenses, scoring 1.02 points per play. Missouri’s applies full court pressure on 28.9 percent of possessions which should allow the Tigers to create an offensive advantage.
Missouri can get into trouble given its tendency to commit fouls. The Tigers send their opponents to the free-throw line 35 times per 100 shot attempts. That’s one of the worst rates in the country and Princeton gets to the stripe 31 times per 100 field goal attempts.

Extra Possessions

Missouri is one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers. MIZZ forces giveaways on 24.3 percent of offensive possessions while Princeton turns it over on 18 percent of its possessions this season.
Second chance points are crucial to Princeton’s offense. The Tigers score 13.2 points off of second chances and only allow 4.6 points per game, outscoring teams by 8.6 points per game just on second chance opportunities. Missouri has struggled on the glass and has been outscored by 4.2 points per game in the paint.

Shot Profile

Princeton’s offensive attack is perimeter-oriented. The Tigers attempt 42 percent of their shots from 3-point range. Missouri’s defense is vulnerable against the three, allowing its opponents to attempt 44 percent of their shots from outside the arc.
Missouri only contests 41 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Princeton’s offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 58 percent of the Tigers’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
Princeton dominates the paint. The Tigers score 35.6 points and allow 30.8 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 4.8 points per game. Missouri has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 3.5 points per game in the paint.

Style

Missouri’s has the tendency to over-help on defense and its opponents record assists on 57.7 percent of made baskets.
Princeton has one of the most dominant post-up offenses in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 13.3 points per game on 0.91 points per post-up play. Missouri’s defense should be up to the challenge, allowing 0.77 points per post-up play.
Princeton runs more isolation sets than the average Division I team. The Tigers score 8.1 points per game out of ioslations at 1.01 points per play. Missouri’s defense excels at defending one-on-one, allowing just 0.61 points per isolation play.

Missouri Offense vs. Princeton Defense

The Tigers are ranked 11th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Missouri shoots 55.9 percent on twos and 36.1 percent on threes for a 55.1 effective field goal percentage.

Princeton’s defense is ranked 106th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 46.7 percent on twos and 32.4 percent on threes for a 47.4 effective field goal percentage against the Tigers.

Basics

Missouri’s offense enters the tournament on a cold streak. Over the last 30 days, the Tigers are ranked 49th in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to 11th for the year.
Princeton’s defense has been shutting teams down over the last month and is ranked 35th in adjusted defensive efficiency over that span compared to 106th for the season.
Missouri is one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, averaging 2.8 years of experience weighted by minutes played, per KenPom.com.
According to KenPom, Missouri is one of the “luckier” teams in the field, ranked 9th nationally in luck, meaning that they’ve won more games than their adjusted efficiency margin stats would indicate.
The Tigers’ rotation only has an average height of 76.4 inches according to KenPom.com, making them one of the shortest teams in the field.
Missouri plays as fast as any team in the country. The Tigers average 71 possessions per game. Princeton also loves to play fast and averages 70 possessions per game
Missouri makes 76 percent of its free throws which should come in handy in a close game.

Extra Possessions

Missouri does a great job of valuing the basketball, turnovers on just 16 percent of possessions, and Princeton’s defense doesn’t prioritize forcing giveaways. The Tigers only force giveaways on 14.9 percent of opponent possessions, so expect a low turnover performance by Missouri’s offense.
Missouri does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Tigers score 20.5 points points per game off of turnovers.

Shot Profile

Missouri’s offensive attack is perimeter-oriented. The Tigers attempt 44 percent of their shots from 3-point range. The Tigers also make a lot of those attempts, shooting 36 percent from outside the arc. Princeton matches up well against the perimeter threat and only allows its opponents to attempt 32 percent of shots from outside the arc.
Princeton does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, PRIN contests 63 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Missouri’s offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 58 percent of the Tigers’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
Missouri is difficult to guard because it has 3 players on the roster shooting at least 38 percent from 3-point range on over 50 perimeter attempts.
Missouri is a tough scout because its bigs can stretch the floor. The Tigers have 2 bigs with at least 75 3-point attempts including Noah Carter.
Princeton’s defense excels around the bucket, allowing 52 percent shooting within five-feet of the rim. Missouri is generally a great finishing team, making 62 percent of its shots at the bucket — setting up a key battle inside.
Princeton’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Tigers opponents attempt 25 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 38 percent clip. Missouri’s offense shoots 40 percent on its mid-range attempts.

Style

Missouri has an elite transition offense and scores 17.6 points per game in transition, while Princeton’s transition defense has been run of the mill and allows 9.7 points per game in transition.
Missouri is one of the better passing teams in the country and 56.6 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season. On the other side, Princeton’s defense excels at preventing assisted field goals and forcing one-on-one play. The Tigers only allow their opponents to record assists on 42.9 percent of made baskets.
Missouri runs more isolation sets than the average Division I team. The Tigers score 7.1 points per game out of ISO sets at 0.89 points per play. Princeton’s defense struggles to defend isolation actions. Opponents score 0.92 points per isolation play (including pass-outs) against the Tigers.

Bottom Line

According to Bart Torvik, Missouri is a 78-75 favorite with a 63 percent chance of advancing.

PRIN Personnel

#20 Tosan Evbuomwan

Role: Playmaking Wing
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 217 lbs

Distributor Non Shooter Mega Usage Gets to the Line Below 65% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
14.8	6.2	4.8	107.4	28.3%	53.8%

#3 Ryan Langborg

Role: Movement Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 186 lbs

Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
12	3.1	1.5	106.4	19.0%	52.1%

#14 Matt Allocco

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 200 lbs

Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
10.9	4.9	2	114.3	15.9%	57.3%

#32 Keeshawn Kellman

Role: Post Up Big
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 235 lbs

Finisher Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Go-To Guy Gets to the Line Efficient Shooter Below 65% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
8.1	4.6	0.5	105.8	24.3%	60.4%

❄️❄️❄️: Kellman is averaging 3.7 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 4.5 points below his season average.

#12 Caden Pierce

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 205 lbs

Smart Shot Selection Avoids Turnovers Below 65% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
8.1	7	1.2	113.3	14.5%	51.9%

🔥🔥🔥: Pierce is averaging 13.3 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 5.2 points above his season average.

MIZZ Personnel

#24 Kobe Brown

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 250 lbs

Stretch Big Man Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Smart Shot Selection Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
15.8	6.3	2.5	125.8	23.7%	62.1%

#5 D'Moi Hodge

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 188 lbs

Corner 3-Point Specialist Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Smart Shot Selection Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
14.8	3.8	1.6	125.3	20.3%	61.3%

🔥🔥🔥: Hodge is averaging 20.3 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 5.5 points above his season average.

#4 DeAndre Gholston

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 215 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Takes Tough Shots Go-To Guy

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
10.7	2.3	1.8	101.4	24.7%	48.6%

🔥🔥🔥: Gholston is averaging 14 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 3.3 points above his season average.

#35 Noah Carter

Role: Stretch Big
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 235 lbs

Stretch Big Man Pick and Pop Roll Man Smart Shot Selection

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
9.5	4	1.7	115.1	21.8%	56.7%

#10 Nick Honor

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 5'10" | Weight: 200 lbs

Corner 3-Point Specialist Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
8	1.6	2.9	119.0	13.7%	53.4%

ATS

Missouri ATS Performance

This Season

Missouri is 17-15-1 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 16 of 33 Missouri games (48.5%) this season.

Missouri is 4-2-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 2 of Missouri’s 6 games on neutral floors (33.3%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/11/2022	Pennsylvania	W, 92-85	-12.5	L	-5.5	150.5	OVER	26.5
11/15/2022	SIU-Edwardsville	W, 105-80	-18	W	7	151	OVER	34
11/20/2022	Mississippi Valley State	W, 83-62	-30	L	-9	146	UNDER	-1
11/23/2022	Coastal Carolina	W, 89-51	-15	W	23	152.5	UNDER	-12.5
11/26/2022	Houston Baptist	W, 105-69	-24.5	W	11.5	155	OVER	19
11/29/2022	at Wichita State	W, 88-84	-2	W	2	142	OVER	30
12/4/2022	SE Missouri St	W, 96-89	-21.5	L	-14.5	153.5	OVER	31.5
12/10/2022	Kansas	L, 67-95	3.5	L	-24.5	160.5	OVER	1.5
12/17/2022	vs. UCF	W, 68-66	2.5	W	4.5	143	UNDER	-9
12/22/2022	vs. Illinois	W, 93-71	6	W	28	153.5	OVER	10.5
12/28/2022	Kentucky	W, 89-75	2.5	W	16.5	153.5	OVER	10.5
1/4/2023	at Arkansas	L, 68-74	7.5	W	1.5	155.5	UNDER	-13.5
1/7/2023	Vanderbilt	W, 85-82	-8.5	L	-5.5	149	OVER	18
1/11/2023	at Texas A&M	L, 64-82	1	L	-17	155.5	UNDER	-9.5
1/14/2023	at Florida	L, 64-73	3.5	L	-5.5	155.5	UNDER	-18.5
1/18/2023	Arkansas	W, 79-76	1.5	W	4.5	156.5	UNDER	-1.5
1/21/2023	Alabama	L, 64-85	5.5	L	-15.5	162.5	UNDER	-13.5
1/24/2023	at Ole Miss	W, 89-77	1.5	W	13.5	147.5	OVER	18.5
1/28/2023	Iowa State	W, 78-61	1.5	W	18.5	142.5	UNDER	-3.5
2/1/2023	LSU	W, 87-77	-10	P	0	145.5	OVER	18.5
2/4/2023	at Mississippi State	L, 52-63	3	L	-8	142	UNDER	-27
2/7/2023	South Carolina	W, 83-74	-14.5	L	-5.5	146.5	OVER	10.5
2/11/2023	at Tennessee	W, 86-85	11.5	W	12.5	141.5	OVER	29.5
2/14/2023	at Auburn	L, 56-89	6	L	-27	150.5	UNDER	-5.5
2/18/2023	Texas A&M	L, 60-69	1	L	-8	159	UNDER	-30
2/21/2023	Mississippi State	W, 66-64	-1	W	1	139.5	UNDER	-9.5
2/25/2023	at Georgia	W, 85-63	-3	W	19	155	UNDER	-7
3/1/2023	at LSU	W, 81-76	-4.5	W	0.5	149	OVER	8
3/4/2023	Ole Miss	W, 82-77	-9	L	-4	148.5	OVER	10.5
3/10/2023	vs. Tennessee	W, 79-71	6	W	14	141.5	OVER	8.5
3/11/2023	vs. Alabama	L, 61-72	9.5	L	-1.5	157.5	UNDER	-24.5
3/16/2023	vs. Utah State	W, 76-65	2	W	13	154.5	UNDER	-13.5
3/18/2023	vs. Princeton	L, 63-78	-6.5	L	-21.5	150	UNDER	-9

Head to Head

Missouri is 0-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Princeton in recorded games since 2023. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
3/18/2023	vs. Princeton	L, 63-78	-6.5	L	-21.5	150	UNDER	-9

Princeton ATS Performance

This Season

Princeton is 17-12-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 15 of 29 Princeton games (51.7%) this season.

Princeton is 4-2-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 0 of Princeton’s 6 games on neutral floors (0%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/7/2022	Hofstra	L, 77-83	-2.5	L	-8.5	150.5	OVER	9.5
11/11/2022	at Navy	L, 73-74	0	L	-1	135.5	OVER	11.5
11/14/2022	at Umbc	W, 94-64	-3	W	27	150	OVER	8
11/19/2022	at Marist	W, 62-55	-6.5	W	0.5	144.5	UNDER	-27.5
11/24/2022	vs. Army	W, 74-66	11	W	19	151.5	UNDER	-11.5
11/26/2022	vs. Northeastern	W, 56-54	-5.5	L	-3.5	138	UNDER	-28
12/3/2022	at Drexel	W, 83-63	-2	W	18	133	OVER	13
12/6/2022	Lafayette	W, 69-58	-12	L	-1	132	UNDER	-5
12/10/2022	Monmouth	W, 91-54	-17	W	20	142.5	OVER	2.5
12/13/2022	vs. Iona	L, 64-70	5.5	L	-0.5	145	UNDER	-11
12/16/2022	Delaware	L, 69-76	-8	L	-15	143	OVER	2
12/31/2022	Harvard	W, 69-66	-6	L	-3	135.5	UNDER	-0.5
1/6/2023	at Columbia	W, 68-49	-10	W	9	137.5	UNDER	-20.5
1/7/2023	at Cornell	W, 75-68	3	W	10	153	UNDER	-10
1/14/2023	at Brown	L, 70-72	-3.5	L	-5.5	135.5	OVER	6.5
1/16/2023	at Pennsylvania	W, 72-60	0	W	12	145.5	UNDER	-13.5
1/21/2023	Dartmouth	W, 93-90	-12.5	L	-9.5	137.5	OVER	45.5
1/28/2023	at Yale	L, 65-87	3	L	-19	140	OVER	12
2/3/2023	Cornell	W, 89-82	-3	W	4	157	OVER	14
2/4/2023	Columbia	W, 88-66	-18.5	W	3.5	143	OVER	11
2/11/2023	at Dartmouth	L, 76-83	-7.5	L	-14.5	141.5	OVER	17.5
2/17/2023	Brown	W, 78-67	-6.5	W	4.5	143	OVER	2
2/18/2023	Yale	L, 83-93	1	L	-9	142	OVER	34
2/25/2023	at Harvard	W, 58-56	1	W	3	139.5	UNDER	-25.5
3/4/2023	Pennsylvania	W, 77-69	-4	W	4	148	UNDER	-2
3/11/2023	Pennsylvania	W, 77-70	-3	W	4	146.5	OVER	0.5
3/12/2023	vs. Yale	W, 74-65	3	W	12	140.5	UNDER	-1.5
3/16/2023	vs. Arizona	W, 59-55	14.5	W	18.5	154	UNDER	-40
3/18/2023	vs. Missouri	W, 78-63	6.5	W	21.5	150	UNDER	-9

Head to Head

Princeton is 1-0-0 against the spread when it plays against Missouri in recorded games since 2023. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
3/18/2023	vs. Missouri	W, 78-63	6.5	W	21.5	150	UNDER	-9

Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.

Ronnie DeGray (03/19): DeGray (knee) did not play during Missouri's 78-63 loss Saturday against Princeton.
Tre Gomillion (03/19): Gomillion (groin) did not play during Missouri's 78-63 loss Saturday against Princeton.
Tre Gomillion (03/18): Gomillion (groin) is not warming up with his teammates ahead of Saturday's Round of 32 game against Princeton, Dave Matter of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Tre Gomillion (03/18): Gomillion (groin) is listed as questionable for Saturday's Round of 32 game against Princeton and will test how he feels in warmups to see if he's able to go, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
Tre Gomillion (03/17): Gomillion (groin) is a game-time decision for Friday's game against Princeton, Dave Matter of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
D'Moi Hodge (03/16): Hodge provided 23 points (8-14 FG, 5-10 3Pt, 2-2 FT), four rebounds, two assists and four steals in 37 minutes during Thursday's 76-65 victory over Utah State.
Kobe Brown (03/16): Brown contributed 19 points (7-8 FG, 3-4 3Pt, 2-4 FT), eight rebounds, two assists, one block and two steals in 33 minutes during Thursday's 76-65 win over Utah State.
Tre Gomillion (03/16): Gomillion (groin) is fighting back tears as he has gone to the bench while the rest of the team is warming up ahead of Thursday's game versus Utah State, Dave Matter of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Noah Carter (03/16): Carter is part of Missouri's starting lineup Thursday against Utah State.
Mohamed Diarra (03/16): Diarra isn't in the starting five for Thursday's game versus Utah State, Rivals.com reports.
Ronnie DeGray (03/16): DeGray (knee) was spotted practicing on Wednesday, according to Drew King of Rivals.com.
Tre Gomillion (03/15): Gomillion (groin) is a game-time decision before Missouri's game Thursday against Utah State.
Deven Austin (03/12): Austin (undisclosed) has missed five consecutive games for the Tigers.
Ronnie DeGray (03/12): DeGray (knee) did not play during Missouri's game Saturday against Alabama.
Tre Gomillion (03/11): Gomillion (groin) said after Saturday's game that he hopes to play in the NCAA Tournament, Dave Matter of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Ronnie DeGray (03/10): DeGray (knee) won't play in Friday's game versus Tennessee, Dave Matter of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Tre Gomillion (03/10): Gomillion (undisclosed) will not play in Friday's game against Tennessee.
Isiaih Mosley (03/10): Mosley won't play in Friday's SEC Tournament game against Tennessee given that he didn't make the trip to Nashville due to personal reasons, Dave Matter of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
DeAndre Gholston (03/06): Gholston finished Saturday's 82-77 win over Ole Miss with 15 points (7-13 FG, 0-4 3Pt, 1-2 FT), four rebounds and four assists in 32 minutes.
Tre Gomillion (03/05): Gomillion (undisclosed) played nine minutes during Missouri's 82-77 win Saturday versus Mississippi.
Isiaih Mosley (03/04): Mosley (personal) is dressed in uniform for warmups ahead of Saturday's game versus Mississippi, Dave Matter of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Tre Gomillion (03/02): Coach Dennis Gates said Gomillion told him to "shut me down" due to an undisclosed injury in Wednesday's win over LSU, Dave Matter of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Isiaih Mosley (03/02): Mosley (personal) didn't play in Wednesday's game versus LSU.
Kaleb Brown (02/25): Brown (illness) will be inactive for Saturday's game against Georgia.
D'Moi Hodge (02/22): Hodge produced 16 points (5-13 FG, 3-9 3Pt, 3-5 FT), four rebounds, two assists, three blocks and three steals over 37 minutes during Tuesday's 66-64 OT win over Mississippi State.