Preview: Penn State vs. Texas

Game	Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Texas Longhorns
Date:	March 18th, 2023 8:17 PM
TV:	CBS

Preview

Penn State Offense vs. Texas Defense

The Nittany Lions are ranked 12th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Penn State shoots 53.5 percent on twos and 38.7 percent on threes for a 55.7 effective field goal percentage.

Texas defense is ranked 10th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 47.2 percent on twos and 32.7 percent on threes for a 47.8 effective field goal percentage against the Longhorns.

Basics

Penn State is one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, averaging 2.5 years of experience weighted by minutes played, per KenPom.com. Texas isn’t short on experience itself, with an average weighted years of experience of 2.2 years.
The Nittany Lions have a size advantage on the perimeter as their guards rank in the 72nd percentile size wise compared to Texas guards which rank in the 30th percentile.
Penn State plays at a deliberate pace. The Nittany Lions average 66 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball. Texas prefers to play fast and averages 71 possessions per game meaning this should be a game of contrasting tempo.
Penn State does a great job attacking full-court pressure defenses, scoring 1.2 points per play. Texas applies full court pressure on 9.1 percent of possessions which should allow the Nittany Lions to create an offensive advantage.
Texas can get into trouble given its tendency to commit fouls. The Longhorns send their opponents to the free-throw line 34 times per 100 shot attempts. That’s one of the worst rates in the country and Penn State gets to the stripe 21 times per 100 field goal attempts.

Extra Possessions

Penn State does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Nittany Lions only turn it over on 13.7 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a Texas defense that forces giveaways on 22.8 percent of possessions.
Penn State is unique because its guards are aggressive on the offensive glass. Perimeter players account for 31.6 percent of the Nittany Lions’ offensive boards. That should put extra pressure on Texas perimeter players to clean up the glass.

Shot Profile

Penn State’s offensive attack is perimeter-oriented. The Nittany Lions attempt 48 percent of their shots from 3-point range. The Nittany Lions also make a lot of those attempts, shooting 39 percent from outside the arc.
Penn State is difficult to guard because it has 4 players on the roster shooting at least 38 percent from 3-point range on over 50 perimeter attempts.
Penn State is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Nittany Lions shoot 59 percent at the rim and Texas allows 58 percent shooting inside of five feet.
Texas defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Longhorns opponents attempt 27 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 34 percent clip. Penn State’s offense shoots 47 percent on its mid-range attempts.

Style

Texas Offense vs. Penn State Defense

The Longhorns are ranked 18th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Texas shoots 53.9 percent on twos and 33.9 percent on threes for a 52.8 effective field goal percentage.

Penn State’s defense is ranked 110th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 48.7 percent on twos and 33.7 percent on threes for a 49.4 effective field goal percentage against the Nittany Lions.

Basics

Texas offense enters the tournament on a cold streak. Over the last 30 days, the Longhorns are ranked 57th in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to 18th for the year.
Texas plays as fast as any team in the country. The Longhorns average 71 possessions per game. On the other side, Penn State prefers to control the game and does a good job of that. Nittany Lions games only average 66 possessions per game
Texas makes 75 percent of its free throws which should come in handy in a close game.

Extra Possessions

Texas does a great job of valuing the basketball, turnovers on just 16.5 percent of possessions, and Penn State’s defense doesn’t prioritize forcing giveaways. The Nittany Lions only force giveaways on 13.2 percent of opponent possessions, so expect a low turnover performance by Texas offense.
Texas does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Longhorns score 18.1 points points per game off of turnovers. Penn State avoids turnovers for touchdowns, allowing only 10.2 points per game off of giveaways.

Shot Profile

Texas dominates the paint. The Longhorns score 31.7 points and allow 27.4 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 4.3 points per game. Penn State has struggled inside this year and has been outscored by 2.2 points per game in the paint.
Texas offense can be somewhat one-dimensional because there’s only one player (Cunningham) on the roster who shoots 38% or better from 3-point range on 50+ attempts.
Texas is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Longhorns shoot 63 percent at the rim and Penn State allows 60 percent shooting inside of five feet.
Texas’s offense is heavy on mid-range jumpers. The Longhorns attempt 30 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 43 percent clip.
Penn State’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Nittany Lions opponents attempt 29 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 36 percent clip. Texas offense shoots 43 percent on its mid-range attempts.

Style

Texas loves to push the ball in transition. An impressive 17.2 percent of TEX’s offensive plays are in transition and those transition plays create 14.0 points per game. Penn State’s defense does a great job of limiting transition opportunities and only allows 6.4 points per game in transition.
Texas is one of the better passing teams in the country and 56.4 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season. That should provide a significant advantage for the Longhorns because Penn State’s defense allows a lot of assisted field goals. PSU opponents record assists on 55.7 percent of made baskets.
Texas runs a lot of off-ball actions. The Longhorns score 9.3 points per game out of off-ball screens and cuts at 1.06 points per play. Penn State’s defense is fairly average defending off the ball. Opponents score 0.98 points per play against the Nittany Lions.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik projects a 73-68 Texas victory over Penn State and gives the Longhorns a 71 percent chance at picking up the win.

PSU Personnel

#22 Jalen Pickett

Role: Playmaking Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 209 lbs

Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Mega Usage Minutes Logger Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
18.1	7.4	6.8	121.4	29.1%	56.8%

#1 Seth Lundy

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 220 lbs

Corner 3-Point Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
14.2	6.3	0.9	117.5	21.4%	57.7%

#10 Andrew Funk

Role: Movement Wing
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 200 lbs

Glue Guy Off Screen Shooter Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
12.2	2.9	1.1	114.7	16.6%	60.1%

#11 Camren Wynter

Role: Domineering Ball Handler
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 200 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Takes Tough Shots Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
8.8	2.9	1.9	104.4	18.7%	53.7%

#2 Myles Dread

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 235 lbs

Just A Shooter Low Usage Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
5.2	2.1	0.8	108.6	12.9%	54.8%

TEX Personnel

#5 Marcus Carr

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 175 lbs

Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Pick Pocket Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
15.9	3	4	112.9	23.0%	51%

#4 Tyrese Hunter

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'0" | Weight: 175 lbs

Catch and Shoot Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
10.2	2.9	2.5	98.5	19.7%	46.8%

#0 Timmy Allen

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 210 lbs

Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Non Shooter Takes Tough Shots Gets to the Line Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
10.5	5.5	3.4	103.8	22.4%	48.6%

#1 Dylan Disu

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 225 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Rim Protector Foul Prone Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
8.3	4.2	1	115.2	19.8%	62.4%

🔥🔥🔥: Disu is averaging 14.7 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 6.4 points above his season average.

#32 Christian Bishop

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 220 lbs

Pick Pocket Non Shooter Gets to the Line Below 65% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
6.3	3.6	0.9	104.1	19.2%	52.5%

ATS

Texas ATS Performance

This Season

Texas is 18-17-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 15 of 35 Texas games (42.9%) this season.

Texas is 5-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 2 of Texas 8 games on neutral floors (25%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/7/2022	UTEP	W, 72-57	-21	L	-6	130	UNDER	-1
11/10/2022	Houston Baptist	W, 82-31	-33	W	18	141.5	UNDER	-28.5
11/16/2022	Gonzaga	W, 93-74	-1	W	18	144.5	OVER	22.5
11/21/2022	vs. Northern Arizona	W, 73-48	23	W	48	134	UNDER	-13
11/26/2022	UT Rio Grande Valley	W, 91-54	-34.5	W	2.5	147	UNDER	-2
12/1/2022	Creighton	W, 72-67	-7	L	-2	139.5	UNDER	-0.5
12/6/2022	vs. Illinois	L, 78-85	-4.5	L	-11.5	140.5	OVER	22.5
12/10/2022	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	W, 88-43	-36	W	9	140	UNDER	-9
12/12/2022	Rice	W, 87-81	-26.5	L	-20.5	144	OVER	24
12/18/2022	vs. Stanford	W, 72-62	-11.5	L	-1.5	130.5	OVER	3.5
12/21/2022	Louisiana	W, 100-72	-18	W	10	141	OVER	31
12/31/2022	at Oklahoma	W, 70-69	-3	L	-2	133.5	OVER	5.5
1/3/2023	Kansas State	L, 103-116	-10	L	-23	139	OVER	80
1/7/2023	at Oklahoma State	W, 56-46	-3.5	W	6.5	140	UNDER	-38
1/11/2023	TCU	W, 79-75	-8	L	-4	142.5	OVER	11.5
1/14/2023	Texas Tech	W, 72-70	-8.5	L	-6.5	142	UNDER	0
1/17/2023	at Iowa State	L, 67-78	2	L	-9	131.5	OVER	13.5
1/21/2023	at West Virginia	W, 69-61	1.5	W	9.5	145.5	UNDER	-15.5
1/24/2023	Oklahoma State	W, 89-75	-6	W	8	135	OVER	29
1/28/2023	at Tennessee	L, 71-82	5.5	L	-5.5	134.5	OVER	18.5
1/30/2023	Baylor	W, 76-71	-2.5	W	2.5	150.5	UNDER	-3.5
2/4/2023	at Kansas State	W, 69-66	-1	W	2	148.5	UNDER	-13.5
2/6/2023	at Kansas	L, 80-88	4	L	-4	146.5	OVER	21.5
2/11/2023	West Virginia	W, 94-60	-7	W	27	149	OVER	5
2/13/2023	at Texas Tech	L, 67-74	-3.5	L	-10.5	145.5	UNDER	-4.5
2/18/2023	Oklahoma	W, 85-83	-9.5	L	-7.5	142.5	OVER	25.5
2/21/2023	Iowa State	W, 72-54	-5.5	W	12.5	135	UNDER	-9
2/25/2023	at Baylor	L, 72-81	3.5	L	-5.5	148.5	OVER	4.5
3/1/2023	at TCU	L, 73-75	1.5	L	-0.5	149	UNDER	-1
3/4/2023	Kansas	W, 75-59	-3	W	13	148.5	UNDER	-14.5
3/9/2023	vs. Oklahoma State	W, 61-47	-6.5	W	7.5	142.5	UNDER	-34.5
3/10/2023	vs. TCU	W, 66-60	-2	W	4	147	UNDER	-21
3/11/2023	vs. Kansas	W, 76-56	1.5	W	21.5	142	UNDER	-10
3/16/2023	vs. Colgate	W, 81-61	-14	W	6	147	UNDER	-5
3/18/2023	vs. Penn State	W, 71-66	-5.5	L	-0.5	140.5	UNDER	-3.5

Head to Head

Texas is 0-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Penn State in recorded games since 2023. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
3/18/2023	vs. Penn State	W, 71-66	-5.5	L	-0.5	140.5	UNDER	-3.5

Penn State ATS Performance

This Season

Penn State is 20-16-1 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 23 of 37 Penn State games (62.2%) this season.

Penn State is 8-1-1 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 6 of Penn State’s 10 games on neutral floors (60%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/7/2022	Winthrop	W, 93-68	-12.5	W	12.5	139.5	OVER	21.5
11/10/2022	Loyola (MD)	W, 90-65	-17	W	8	133	OVER	22
11/14/2022	Butler	W, 68-62	-7	L	-1	139.5	UNDER	-9.5
11/17/2022	vs. Furman	W, 73-68	-2	W	3	136	OVER	5
11/18/2022	vs. Virginia Tech	L, 59-61	2	P	0	138.5	UNDER	-18.5
11/20/2022	vs. Colorado State	W, 68-56	-4.5	W	7.5	134	UNDER	-10
11/25/2022	Lafayette	W, 70-57	-20.5	L	-7.5	125	OVER	2
11/29/2022	at Clemson	L, 94-101	0	L	-7	132	OVER	63
12/7/2022	Michigan State	L, 58-67	-3.5	L	-12.5	134.5	UNDER	-9.5
12/10/2022	at Illinois	W, 74-59	8.5	W	23.5	140	UNDER	-7
12/18/2022	Canisius	W, 97-67	-18.5	W	11.5	137.5	OVER	26.5
12/22/2022	Quinnipiac	W, 77-68	-15	L	-6	139	OVER	6
12/29/2022	Delaware State	W, 60-46	-31	L	-17	137	UNDER	-31
1/1/2023	Iowa	W, 83-79	-2	W	2	145	OVER	17
1/4/2023	at Michigan	L, 69-79	3	L	-7	141.5	OVER	6.5
1/8/2023	vs. Purdue	L, 63-76	5	L	-8	135.5	OVER	3.5
1/11/2023	Indiana	W, 85-66	-1.5	W	17.5	143.5	OVER	7.5
1/17/2023	at Wisconsin	L, 60-63	2	L	-1	129.5	UNDER	-6.5
1/21/2023	Nebraska	W, 76-65	-8.5	W	2.5	133.5	OVER	7.5
1/24/2023	at Rutgers	L, 45-65	4.5	L	-15.5	130.5	UNDER	-20.5
1/29/2023	Michigan	W, 83-61	-3.5	W	18.5	141	OVER	3
2/1/2023	at Purdue	L, 60-80	10	L	-10	135.5	OVER	4.5
2/5/2023	at Nebraska	L, 63-72	-5	L	-14	136	UNDER	-1
2/8/2023	Wisconsin	L, 74-79	-4.5	L	-9.5	126.5	OVER	26.5
2/11/2023	at Maryland	L, 68-74	8	W	2	134.5	OVER	7.5
2/14/2023	Illinois	W, 93-81	2.5	W	14.5	142	OVER	32
2/18/2023	at Minnesota	W, 76-69	-8.5	L	-1.5	133.5	OVER	11.5
2/23/2023	at Ohio State	W, 75-71	2	W	6	142.5	OVER	3.5
2/26/2023	Rutgers	L, 56-59	-3.5	L	-6.5	132	UNDER	-17
3/1/2023	at Northwestern	W, 68-65	3	W	6	134	UNDER	-1
3/5/2023	Maryland	W, 65-64	-2	L	-1	135	UNDER	-6
3/9/2023	vs. Illinois	W, 79-76	2	W	5	141.5	OVER	13.5
3/10/2023	vs. Northwestern	W, 67-65	0	W	2	130.5	OVER	1.5
3/11/2023	vs. Indiana	W, 77-73	3	W	7	140	OVER	10
3/12/2023	vs. Purdue	L, 65-67	6	W	4	134.5	UNDER	-2.5
3/16/2023	vs. Texas A&M	W, 76-59	3	W	20	134.5	OVER	0.5
3/18/2023	vs. Texas	L, 66-71	5.5	W	0.5	140.5	UNDER	-3.5

Head to Head

Penn State is 1-0-0 against the spread when it plays against Texas in recorded games since 2023. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
3/18/2023	vs. Texas	L, 66-71	5.5	W	0.5	140.5	UNDER	-3.5

Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.

Tyrese Hunter (03/18): Hunter closed Thursday's 81-61 victory over Colgate with 10 points (4-12 FG, 2-7 3Pt), four rebounds, two assists, one block and one steal across 37 minutes.
Dylan Disu (03/18): Disu notched 17 points (8-11 FG, 1-1 FT), 10 rebounds, one assist and one block in 21 minutes during Thursday's 81-61 victory over Colgate.
Timmy Allen (03/17): Allen had four points (1-2 FG, 2-2 FT), three rebounds, five assists and one block in 20 minutes during Thursday's 81-61 win over Colgate.
Timmy Allen (03/16): Allen is back in the starting lineup for Thursday's first-round matchup against Colgate.
Timmy Allen (03/13): Allen (leg) will be available for Thursday's showdown with Colgate, Joseph Cook of On3.com reports.
Marcus Carr (03/12): Carr posted 17 points (8-15 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 0-1 FT), three rebounds and three assists in 38 minutes during Saturday's 76-56 win over Kansas.
Brock Cunningham (03/12): Cunningham had eight points (3-7 FG, 2-4 3Pt), nine rebounds, three assists and two steals across 26 minutes during Saturday's 76-56 win over Kansas.
Timmy Allen (03/11): Allen (leg) is out Saturday for the Big12 Tournament title game against Kansas, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
Dylan Disu (03/10): Disu chipped in 11 points (4-7 FG, 3-4 FT), 11 rebounds, one assist, one block and three steals over 32 minutes during Thursday's 61-47 win over Oklahoma State.
Camren Wynter (03/10): Wynter registered 18 points (7-9 FG, 0-1 3Pt, 4-7 FT), five rebounds, one assist and one steal across 30 minutes during Thursday's 79-76 victory over Illinois.
Andrew Funk (03/10): Funk had 20 points (6-9 FG, 6-9 3Pt, 2-2 FT), one rebound and one steal across 38 minutes during Thursday's 79-76 win over Illinois.
Timmy Allen (03/09): Allen (leg) has been ruled out for Thursday's Big 12 Tournament game against Oklahoma State, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
Tyrese Hunter (03/07): Hunter closed Saturday's 75-59 win over Kansas with 20 points (4-10 FG, 3-7 3Pt, 9-10 FT), two rebounds and three assists over 33 minutes.
Jalen Pickett (03/06): Pickett recorded 16 points (7-12 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 0-1 FT), seven rebounds, seven assists and four steals over 40 minutes during Sunday's 65-64 victory over Maryland.
Seth Lundy (03/02): Lundy posted 14 points (5-12 FG, 4-9 3Pt), six rebounds and one block across 41 minutes during Wednesday's 68-65 OT victory over Northwestern.
Camren Wynter (03/02): Wynter ended with 24 points (9-15 FG, 4-5 3Pt, 2-2 FT), four rebounds and three assists in 39 minutes during Wednesday's 68-65 OT victory over Northwestern.
Caleb Dorsey (03/02): Dorsey (undisclosed) did not play in Wednesday's 68-65 win over Northwestern.
Dylan Disu (02/25): Disu closed with 24 points (10-15 FG, 3-4 3Pt, 1-2 FT), four rebounds, two assists and two steals across 26 minutes before fouling out of Saturday's 81-72 loss to Baylor.
Marcus Carr (02/23): Carr chipped in 13 points (5-9 FG, 3-5 3Pt), two rebounds, five assists and one steal in 35 minutes during Tuesday's 72-54 victory over Iowa State.
Jalen Pickett (02/20): Pickett supplied 32 points (11-20 FG, 4-8 3Pt, 6-7 FT), nine rebounds, eight assists, one block and one steal across 37 minutes during Saturday's 76-69 win over Minnesota.
Andrew Funk (02/20): Funk supplied 11 points (4-8 FG, 3-6 3Pt), three rebounds, one assist and one steal across 33 minutes during Saturday's 76-69 victory over Minnesota.
Brock Cunningham (02/19): Cunningham provided 10 points (4-7 FG, 2-3 3Pt), four rebounds, four assists and one steal across 32 minutes before fouling out of Saturday's 85-83 OT victory over Oklahoma.
Timmy Allen (02/19): Allen posted 15 points (7-13 FG, 1-3 FT), nine rebounds, four assists and two steals across 41 minutes during Saturday's 85-83 OT victory over Oklahoma.
Myles Dread (02/15): Dread had three points (1-3 FG, 1-3 3Pt) and one rebound over 21 minutes during Tuesday's 93-81 victory over Illinois.
Jalen Pickett (02/15): Pickett recorded 41 points (15-20 FG, 5-9 3Pt, 6-6 FT), two rebounds, eight assists and one steal in 39 minutes during Tuesday's 93-81 victory over Illinois.