Preview: Northwestern vs. UCLA

Game	Northwestern Wildcats vs. UCLA Bruins
Date:	March 18th, 2023 8:50 PM
TV:	TNT

Preview

Northwestern Offense vs. UCLA Defense

The Wildcats are ranked 71st nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Northwestern shoots 46.5 percent on twos and 32.1 percent on threes for a 47.2 effective field goal percentage.

UCLA’s defense is ranked 2nd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 46.8 percent on twos and 31.1 percent on threes for a 46.8 effective field goal percentage against the Bruins.

Basics

Northwestern is one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, averaging 2.3 years of experience weighted by minutes played, per KenPom.com.
The Wildcats are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 77.7 inches according to KenPom.com.
The Wildcats have a size advantage on the perimeter as their guards rank in the 71st percentile size wise compared to UCLA’s guards which rank in the 34th percentile.
Northwestern plays at a deliberate pace. The Wildcats average 66 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball.
Northwestern makes 75 percent of its free throws which should come in handy in a close game.

Extra Possessions

Northwestern does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Wildcats only turn it over on 14.8 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a UCLA defense that forces giveaways on 23.6 percent of possessions.

Shot Profile

Northwestern’s offensive attack is perimeter-oriented. The Wildcats attempt 41 percent of their shots from 3-point range. Despite shooting a lot of threes, Northwestern isn’t particularly accurate, shooting 32 percent from long distance. UCLA’s defense is vulnerable against the three, allowing its opponents to attempt 40 percent of their shots from outside the arc.
Northwestern’s offense doesn’t have a single player shooting 38% or better from 3-point range with over 50 attempts.
UCLA controls the area around the hoop, allowing 53 percent shooting inside of five-feet. Northwestern makes 55 percent of its interior shots which is about average in college basketball. .

Style

Northwestern is one of the better passing teams in the country and 55 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season.
Modern basketball is a ball screen game and Northwestern’s offense is no exception. The Wildcats score 29.6 points per game out of ball screens and average 0.82 points per ball screen play. UCLA’s defense excels at defending ball screens, allowing just 0.67 points per play which should set up a key strength-on-strength matchup.
Northwestern’s offense incorporates more off-ball actions and screens than the average Division I team. The Wildcats score 8.8 points per game off of off-ball actions at 0.98 points per play. UCLA’s defense excels at defending off-ball sets, allowing just 0.90 points per play.

UCLA Offense vs. Northwestern Defense

The Bruins are ranked 21st nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. UCLA shoots 50.3 percent on twos and 34.7 percent on threes for a 50.8 effective field goal percentage.

Northwestern’s defense is ranked 20th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 46.6 percent on twos and 33.9 percent on threes for a 48.4 effective field goal percentage against the Wildcats.

Basics

Extra Possessions

UCLA does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Bruins only turn it over on 15.2 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a Northwestern defense that forces giveaways on 21.7 percent of possessions.
UCLA does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Bruins score 19.5 points points per game off of turnovers. Northwestern avoids turnovers for touchdowns, allowing only 9.7 points per game off of giveaways.
UCLA is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Bruins grab 33.6 percent of their missed shots. Northwestern is average on the defensive glass, grabbing 72.7 percent of opponent misses, and that matchup on the boards will be a key swing stat on Saturday.
Second chance points are crucial to UCLA’s offense. The Bruins score 12.2 points off of second chances and only allow 8.0 points per game, outscoring teams by 4.2 points per game just on second chance opportunities.

Shot Profile

UCLA’s offensive attack is interior-focused. The Bruins only attempt 29 percent of their shots from 3-point range.
Northwestern only contests 49 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, UCLA’s offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 56 percent of the Bruins’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
UCLA dominates the paint. The Bruins score 33.6 points and allow 23.8 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 9.8 points per game.
UCLA’s offense can be somewhat one-dimensional because there’s only one player (Singleton) on the roster who shoots 38% or better from 3-point range on 50+ attempts.
UCLA is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Bruins shoot 60 percent at the rim and Northwestern allows 55 percent shooting inside of five feet.
UCLA’s offense is heavy on mid-range jumpers. The Bruins attempt 32 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 38 percent clip.

Style

Northwestern’s has the tendency to over-help on defense and its opponents record assists on 61 percent of made baskets.
Modern basketball is a ball screen game and UCLA’s offense is no exception. The Bruins score 27.3 points per game out of ball screens and average 0.82 points per ball screen play. Northwestern’s defense excels at defending ball screens, allowing just 0.68 points per play which should set up a key strength-on-strength matchup.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik projects a 66-59 UCLA victory over Northwestern and gives the Bruins a 77 percent chance at picking up the win.

NW Personnel

#0 Boo Buie

Role: Domineering Ball Handler
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 180 lbs

Distributor Takes Tough Shots Mega Usage Minutes Logger Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
17.1	3.3	4.5	104.8	28.7%	46.8%

#1 Chase Audige

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 200 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Pick Pocket Go-To Guy Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
13.8	3.4	2.8	94.2	25.3%	44.1%

❄️❄️❄️: Audige is averaging 6.7 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 7.1 points below his season average.

#3 Ty Berry

Role: Movement Wing
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 185 lbs

Off Screen Shooter Pick Pocket Poor Finisher Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
8.5	4.7	1.2	98.5	17.9%	42.6%

#31 Robbie Beran

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 215 lbs

Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
7.8	4.7	0.7	109.2	15.6%	46.6%

#13 Brooks Barnhizer

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 215 lbs

Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
7.7	4.9	1.1	109.2	17.4%	49%

🔥🔥🔥: Barnhizer is averaging 16.7 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 9 points above his season average.

UCLA Personnel

#24 Jaime Jaquez

Role: Unknown
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 225 lbs

Pick Pocket Defensive Rebounder Go-To Guy Avoids Turnovers

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
17.3	8.1	2.3	112.8	26.9%	50.5%

#10 Tyger Campbell

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 5'11" | Weight: 180 lbs

Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Poor Finisher Takes Tough Shots Go-To Guy Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
13.6	2.6	4.6	110.1	24.1%	45.1%

🔥🔥🔥: Campbell is averaging 20.7 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 7 points above his season average.

#0 Jaylen Clark

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 205 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Pick Pocket Avoids Turnovers

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
13	6	1.9	116.1	21.2%	52.1%

#34 David Singleton

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 210 lbs

Corner 3-Point Specialist Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
9.1	2.7	1.1	128.0	13.5%	57.5%

❄️❄️❄️: Singleton is averaging 6 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 3.1 points below his season average.

#5 Amari Bailey

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 185 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
10.6	3.7	2	96.7	23.3%	52.1%

🔥🔥🔥: Bailey is averaging 18 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 7.4 points above his season average.

ATS

UCLA ATS Performance

This Season

UCLA is 20-14-2 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 18 of 36 UCLA games (50%) this season.

UCLA is 4-4-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 5 of UCLA’s 8 games on neutral floors (62.5%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/7/2022	Sacramento State	W, 76-50	-24	W	2	135	UNDER	-9
11/11/2022	Long Beach State	W, 93-69	-19	W	5	145	OVER	17
11/14/2022	Norfolk State	W, 86-56	-20.5	W	9.5	141.5	OVER	0.5
11/18/2022	vs. Illinois	L, 70-79	-2	L	-11	146.5	OVER	2.5
11/20/2022	vs. Baylor	L, 75-80	3	L	-2	152	OVER	3
11/23/2022	Pepperdine	W, 100-53	-18	W	29	149.5	OVER	3.5
11/27/2022	Bellarmine	W, 81-60	-23	L	-2	134.5	OVER	6.5
12/1/2022	at Stanford	W, 80-66	-5.5	W	8.5	136.5	OVER	9.5
12/4/2022	Oregon	W, 65-56	-10.5	L	-1.5	144.5	UNDER	-23.5
12/10/2022	Denver	W, 87-64	-26	L	-3	149	OVER	2
12/14/2022	at Maryland	W, 87-60	1	W	28	140.5	OVER	6.5
12/17/2022	vs. Kentucky	W, 63-53	-2	W	8	143	UNDER	-27
12/21/2022	UC Davis	W, 81-54	-24	W	3	146	UNDER	-11
12/30/2022	at Washington State	W, 67-66	-8.5	L	-7.5	133.5	UNDER	-0.5
1/1/2023	at Washington	W, 74-49	-10.5	W	14.5	139	UNDER	-16
1/5/2023	USC	W, 60-58	-13	L	-11	140.5	UNDER	-22.5
1/12/2023	Utah	W, 68-49	-12	W	7	134.5	UNDER	-17.5
1/14/2023	Colorado	W, 68-54	-11.5	W	2.5	138.5	UNDER	-16.5
1/19/2023	at Arizona State	W, 74-62	-5	W	7	135.5	OVER	0.5
1/21/2023	at Arizona	L, 52-58	1.5	L	-4.5	148.5	UNDER	-38.5
1/26/2023	at USC	L, 64-77	-5	L	-18	131	OVER	10
2/2/2023	Washington	W, 70-61	-18	L	-9	136.5	UNDER	-5.5
2/4/2023	Washington State	W, 76-52	-11.5	W	12.5	131	UNDER	-3
2/9/2023	at Oregon State	W, 62-47	-15	P	0	125	UNDER	-16
2/11/2023	at Oregon	W, 70-63	-2.5	W	4.5	133.5	UNDER	-0.5
2/16/2023	Stanford	W, 73-64	-14	L	-5	134.5	OVER	2.5
2/18/2023	California	W, 78-43	-24.5	W	10.5	125	UNDER	-4
2/23/2023	at Utah	W, 78-71	-7	P	0	131.5	OVER	17.5
2/26/2023	at Colorado	W, 60-56	-6	L	-2	134	UNDER	-18
3/2/2023	Arizona State	W, 79-61	-13	W	5	134	OVER	6
3/4/2023	Arizona	W, 82-73	-5	W	4	148	OVER	7
3/9/2023	vs. Colorado	W, 80-69	-8	W	3	132.5	OVER	16.5
3/10/2023	vs. Oregon	W, 75-56	-6	W	13	134.5	UNDER	-3.5
3/11/2023	vs. Arizona	L, 59-61	0	L	-2	148.5	UNDER	-28.5
3/16/2023	vs. UNC Asheville	W, 86-53	-18	W	15	134.5	OVER	4.5
3/18/2023	vs. Northwestern	W, 68-63	-8	L	-3	127.5	OVER	3.5

Head to Head

UCLA is 0-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Northwestern in recorded games since 2023. The over has hit in 1 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (100%).

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
3/18/2023	vs. Northwestern	W, 68-63	-8	L	-3	127.5	OVER	3.5

Northwestern ATS Performance

This Season

Northwestern is 20-12-2 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 15 of 34 Northwestern games (44.1%) this season.

Northwestern is 4-1-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 3 of Northwestern’s 5 games on neutral floors (60%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/7/2022	Chicago State	W, 85-54	-26	W	5	139	UNDER	0
11/11/2022	Northern Illinois	W, 63-46	-17	P	0	140	UNDER	-31
11/15/2022	at Georgetown	W, 75-63	0	W	12	144	UNDER	-6
11/18/2022	Purdue Fort Wayne	W, 60-52	-12	L	-4	142	UNDER	-30
11/22/2022	vs. Liberty	W, 66-52	-3.5	W	10.5	132	UNDER	-14
11/23/2022	vs. Auburn	L, 42-43	5.5	W	4.5	135	UNDER	-50
11/28/2022	Pittsburgh	L, 58-87	-8.5	L	-37.5	127	OVER	18
12/4/2022	at Michigan State	W, 70-63	7	W	14	126.5	OVER	6.5
12/11/2022	Prairie View A&M	W, 61-51	-18	L	-8	129	UNDER	-17
12/17/2022	DePaul	W, 83-45	-6.5	W	31.5	133.5	UNDER	-5.5
12/20/2022	UIC	W, 92-54	-15.5	W	22.5	131.5	OVER	14.5
12/29/2022	Brown	W, 63-58	-14.5	L	-9.5	123.5	UNDER	-2.5
1/1/2023	Ohio State	L, 57-73	2.5	L	-13.5	138	UNDER	-8
1/4/2023	Illinois	W, 73-60	2	W	15	131.5	OVER	1.5
1/8/2023	at Indiana	W, 84-83	6.5	W	7.5	133.5	OVER	33.5
1/11/2023	Rutgers	L, 62-65	1	L	-2	120.5	OVER	6.5
1/15/2023	at Michigan	L, 78-85	4.5	L	-2.5	136	OVER	27
1/23/2023	Wisconsin	W, 66-63	-3	P	0	122	OVER	7
1/25/2023	at Nebraska	W, 78-63	-2	W	13	130.5	OVER	10.5
1/28/2023	Minnesota	W, 81-61	-12	W	8	127.5	OVER	14.5
1/31/2023	at Iowa	L, 70-86	6.5	L	-9.5	149.5	OVER	6.5
2/2/2023	Michigan	L, 51-68	-4.5	L	-21.5	139	UNDER	-20
2/5/2023	at Wisconsin	W, 54-52	3.5	W	5.5	124.5	UNDER	-18.5
2/9/2023	at Ohio State	W, 69-63	5.5	W	11.5	137.5	UNDER	-5.5
2/12/2023	Purdue	W, 64-58	4.5	W	10.5	131	UNDER	-9
2/15/2023	Indiana	W, 64-62	1	W	3	134.5	UNDER	-8.5
2/19/2023	Iowa	W, 80-60	0	W	20	145.5	UNDER	-5.5
2/23/2023	at Illinois	L, 62-66	5.5	W	1.5	136	UNDER	-8
2/26/2023	at Maryland	L, 59-75	6.5	L	-9.5	130.5	OVER	3.5
3/1/2023	Penn State	L, 65-68	-3	L	-6	134	UNDER	-1
3/5/2023	at Rutgers	W, 65-53	5	W	17	126.5	UNDER	-8.5
3/10/2023	vs. Penn State	L, 65-67	0	L	-2	130.5	OVER	1.5
3/16/2023	vs. Boise State	W, 75-67	1.5	W	9.5	128.5	OVER	13.5
3/18/2023	vs. UCLA	L, 63-68	8	W	3	127.5	OVER	3.5

Head to Head

Northwestern is 1-0-0 against the spread when it plays against UCLA in recorded games since 2023. The over has hit in 1 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (100%).

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
3/18/2023	vs. UCLA	L, 63-68	8	W	3	127.5	OVER	3.5

Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.

Adem Bona (03/19): Bona recorded six points (3-3 FG, 0-2 FT), one rebound and two blocks in 21 minutes during Saturday's 68-63 victory over Northwestern.
David Singleton (03/18): Singleton suffered an ankle injury during Saturday's win against Northwestern, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
Tyger Campbell (03/18): Campbell ended with seven points (2-9 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 2-2 FT), three rebounds, 10 assists and one steal in 26 minutes during Thursday's 86-53 win over UNC Asheville.
Jaime Jaquez (03/18): Jaquez had 17 points (8-14 FG, 0-1 3Pt, 1-3 FT), eight rebounds, one assist and five steals in 30 minutes during Thursday's 86-53 victory over UNC Asheville.
Adem Bona (03/18): Bona (shoulder) is in the starting lineup for Saturday's game against Northwestern.
Adem Bona (03/18): Bona (shoulder) will have a more active practice moving forward, Ben Bolch of the Los Angeles Times reports.
Adem Bona (03/17): Bona (Thursday) did not play in Thursday's 86-53 win oiver UNC-Asheville.
Kenneth Nwuba (03/16): Nwuba is in the starting lineup for Thursday's first-round matchup against UNC-Asheville.
Adem Bona (03/16): Bona (shoulder) is not in the starting lineup for Thursday's first-round game against UNC-Asheville.
Adem Bona (03/15): Coach Mick Cronin said that Bona (shoulder) is sore and is expected to be a game-time decision for Thursday's game against UNC-Asheville, Ben Bolch of the Los Angeles Times reports.
Julian Roper (03/15): Northwestern head coach Chris Collins confirmed Wednesday that Roper (ankle) won't be available during the NCAA Tournament, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
Amari Bailey (03/12): Bailey chipped in 19 points (8-14 FG, 1-5 3Pt, 2-2 FT), seven rebounds, one assist and one steal in 37 minutes during Saturday's 61-59 loss to Arizona.
Kenneth Nwuba (03/12): Nwuba had one point (1-2 FT), three rebounds and one assist in 17 minutes before fouling out of Saturday's 61-59 loss to Arizona.
Kenneth Nwuba (03/11): Nwuba is in the starting lineup for Saturday's game against Arizona.
Adem Bona (03/11): Bona has been ruled out of Saturday's game against Arizona due to a shoulder injury, Ben Bolch of the Los Angeles Times reports.
Tyger Campbell (03/11): Campbell closed with 28 points (11-21 FG, 4-8 3Pt, 2-2 FT), three rebounds, six assists and one steal over 35 minutes during Friday's 75-56 win over Oregon.
David Singleton (03/10): Singleton (hip/arm) is in the starting lineup for Friday's game versus Oregon.
Jaime Jaquez (03/10): Jaquez chipped in 16 points (5-11 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 5-7 FT), nine rebounds, two assists and one steal over 38 minutes during Thursday's 80-69 victory over Colorado.
Amari Bailey (03/10): Bailey logged 26 points (8-12 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 8-9 FT), three rebounds, three assists and one steal over 29 minutes during Thursday's 80-69 victory over Colorado.
Adem Bona (03/10): Bona had 11 points (5-8 FG, 1-3 FT), 10 rebounds, one assist and three blocks across 29 minutes during Thursday's 80-69 victory over Colorado.
David Singleton (03/09): Singleton is part of the Bruins' starting lineup Thursday against Colorado, according to their Twitter account.
Jaylen Clark (03/08): Clark will sit out the remainder of the 2022-23 NCAA season because of an Achilles injury, according to Jeff Goodman of Stadium.
Tyger Campbell (03/07): Campbell accumulated 21 points (5-15 FG, 0-3 3Pt, 11-12 FT), five rebounds, four assists and one steal in 37 minutes during Saturday's 82-73 win over Arizona.
Mac Etienne (03/07): Etienne ended Saturday's 82-73 victory over Arizona with two points (1-1 FG), six rebounds, one assist and one steal in 11 minutes.
Jaylen Clark (03/07): Clark (lower leg) has been ruled out for this week's Pac-12 Tournament, Ben Bolch of the Los Angeles Times reports.