Preview: Maryland vs. Alabama

Game Maryland Terrapins vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Date: March 18th, 2023 10:02 PM
TV: TBS

Preview

Maryland Offense vs. Alabama Defense

Maryland checks in at 39th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Terrapins shoot 52 percent on twos and 33 percent on threes for a 51.1 effective field goal percentage.

Alabama is ranked 3rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Alabama opponents make 41.6 percent of their twos and 27.9 percent of their threes for a 41.7 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
  • Maryland is one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, averaging 2.5 years of experience weighted by minutes played, per KenPom.com.
  • According to KenPom, Maryland ranked 279th nationally in luck, meaning that their adjusted efficiency margin stats indicate they should have a better record and have come up short in close games.
  • The Terrapins are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 77.9 inches according to KenPom.com. Alabama should match up well against the Terrapins’ size, with an average height of 78.1 inches.
  • Maryland plays at a deliberate pace. The Terrapins average 65 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball. Alabama prefers to play fast and averages 74 possessions per game meaning this should be a game of contrasting tempo.
  • Maryland does a great job of getting to the free-throw line. The Terrapins attempt 34 free throws per 100 field goal attempts. Maryland’s ability to get to the line will pose issues for Alabama, which struggles to stay out of foul trouble and keep its opponents off the line. The Crimson Tide allow 33 free throws per 100 shot attempts.
  • You can trust Maryland at the line in a close game. The Terrapins shoot 74 percent at the line for the season.
Extra Possessions
  • Maryland does a great job of valuing the basketball, turnovers on just 16.2 percent of possessions, and Alabama’s defense doesn’t prioritize forcing giveaways. The Crimson Tide only force giveaways on 15.9 percent of opponent possessions, so expect a low turnover performance by Maryland’s offense.
  • Maryland is unique because its guards are aggressive on the offensive glass. Perimeter players account for 26.3 percent of the Terrapins’ offensive boards. That should put extra pressure on Alabama’s perimeter players to clean up the glass.
Shot Profile
  • Alabama excels at preventing 3-point shot attempts. Its opponents only attempt 31 percent of their shots from 3-point range and make 29 percent of those attempts. On the year, Maryland is shooting 33 from outside and attempts 38 percent of its shots from long distance.
  • Maryland dominates the paint. The Terrapins score 32.2 points and allow 28.6 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 3.6 points per game. Alabama has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 4.0 points per game in the paint.
  • Maryland’s offense can be somewhat one-dimensional because there’s only one player (Martinez) on the roster who shoots 38% or better from 3-point range on 50+ attempts.
  • Alabama is one of the best teams in the country at defending around the basket. Crimson Tide opponents are shooting just 47 percent at the rim. Maryland is usually very good at creating quality looks around the basket — finishing 61 percent of its shots withing five-feet — which sets up an interesting battle inside.
  • Alabama’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Crimson Tide opponents attempt 31 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 35 percent clip. Maryland’s offense shoots 39 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Alabama’s defense is unique for its ability to prevent assists. Only 42 percent of made baskets are assisted against the Crimson Tide.
  • Maryland is reliant on ball screen screen offense. The Terrapins score 24.9 points per game out of ball screen actions at 0.92 points per play. Alabama’s defense excels at defending ball screens, allowing just 0.74 points per play which should set up a key strength-on-strength matchup.
  • Maryland relies on post-up offense to score. The Terrapins average 10.5 points per game out of post-up actions. Alabama’s defense does a terrific job of guarding post-up scorers. On the year, the Crimson Tide allow just 0.72 points per post-up play.

Alabama Offense vs. Maryland Defense

The Crimson Tide are ranked 15th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Alabama shoots 54.7 percent on twos and 33.8 percent on threes for a 52.8 effective field goal percentage.

Maryland’s defense is ranked 38th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 47.7 percent on twos and 32.1 percent on threes for a 47.9 effective field goal percentage against the Terrapins.

Basics
  • Maryland’s defense needs to get back on track in the NCAA Tournament. Over the last 30 days, the Terrapins are ranked 84th in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to 38th overall.
  • According to KenPom, Alabama is one of the “luckier” teams in the field, ranked 37th nationally in luck, meaning that they’ve won more games than their adjusted efficiency margin stats would indicate.
  • Alabama plays as fast as any team in the country. The Crimson Tide average 74 possessions per game. On the other side, Maryland prefers to control the game and does a good job of that. Terrapins games only average 65 possessions per game
  • Maryland plays a notable amount of zone defense. The Terrapins utilize zone defense on 11.1 percent of their defensive plays, per Synergy. That’s more than most Division I teams and they allow 0.92 points per play in zone defense. Alabama has been fairly average against zone defenses this year, scoring just 0.94 points per play.
  • Alabama does a great job attacking full-court pressure defenses, scoring 0.99 points per play. Maryland’s applies full court pressure on 24.5 percent of possessions which should allow the Crimson Tide to create an offensive advantage.
  • Alabama does a great job of getting to the free-throw line. The Crimson Tide attempt 37 free throws per 100 field goal attempts. This should be an advantage for Maryland, which only allows 28 free throws per 100 shot attempts.
Extra Possessions
  • The game should be fairly turnover neutral on this side of the ball. Alabama turns it over on 19 percent of possessions and Maryland forces giveaways on 18.4 percent of possessions.
  • Alabama is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Crimson Tide grab 33.2 percent of their missed shots. Maryland is average on the defensive glass, grabbing 72.8 percent of opponent misses, and that matchup on the boards will be a key swing stat on Saturday.
  • Second chance points are crucial to Alabama’s offense. The Crimson Tide score 13.0 points off of second chances and only allow 10.0 points per game, outscoring teams by 3.0 points per game just on second chance opportunities. Maryland has also been great on the glass this year, outscoring opponents by 1.6 points per game on second chances.
Shot Profile
  • Alabama’s offensive attack is perimeter-oriented. The Crimson Tide attempt 48 percent of their shots from 3-point range. Maryland matches up well against the perimeter threat and only allows its opponents to attempt 32 percent of shots from outside the arc.
  • Alabama dominates the paint. The Crimson Tide score 33.8 points and allow 29.8 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 4.0 points per game. Maryland has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 3.6 points per game in the paint.
  • Alabama’s offense can be somewhat one-dimensional because there’s only one player (Miller) on the roster who shoots 38% or better from 3-point range on 50+ attempts.
  • Alabama is a tough scout because its bigs can stretch the floor. The Crimson Tide have one big with at least 75 3-point attempts including Noah Clowney.
  • Maryland’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Terrapins opponents attempt 27 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 36 percent clip. Alabama’s offense shoots 34 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Alabama loves to push the ball in transition. An impressive 18 percent of ALA’s offensive plays are in transition and those transition plays create 15.7 points per game. Maryland’s defense does a great job of limiting transition opportunities and only allows 9.3 points per game in transition.
  • Alabama is one of the better passing teams in the country and 54.6 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season.
  • Modern basketball is a ball screen game and Alabama’s offense is no exception. The Crimson Tide score 33.5 points per game out of ball screens and average 0.94 points per ball screen play. Maryland’s defense excels at defending ball screens, allowing just 0.73 points per play which should set up a key strength-on-strength matchup.
  • Alabama runs a lot of isolation actions. The Crimson Tide score 8.5 points per game out of isolation at 0.76 points per play. Maryland’s defense is fairly average defending isolations. Opponents score 0.75 points per isolation action (including pass-outs) against the Terrapins.

Bottom Line

Will we see an upset? Bart Torvik gives Maryland a 22 percent chance of advancing and predicts a 75-67 final score.

MD Personnel

#1 Jahmir Young

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 185 lbs

Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Pick Pocket Takes Tough Shots Mega Usage Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
16.2 4.7 3.2 108.5 29.5% 46.8%

#24 Donta Scott

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 230 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
11.5 5.9 1.6 102.9 22.0% 45.5%

#13 Hakim Hart

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 205 lbs

Glue Guy Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
11.5 4.2 2.5 119.8 17.9% 55.4%

#10 Julian Reese

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 230 lbs

Finisher Roll Man Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Defensive Rebounder Gets to the Line Efficient Shooter Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
11.2 7.3 1 111.2 22.7% 63.2%

#0 Don Carey

Role: Movement Wing
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 187 lbs

Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
7.3 1.9 1.1 106.2 16.1% 50.2%
🔥🔥🔥: Carey is averaging 11 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 3.7 points above his season average.

ALA Personnel

#24 Brandon Miller

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 200 lbs

Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Go-To Guy Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
19.5 8.2 2 120.6 24.1% 56.8%

#1 Mark Sears

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 185 lbs

Catch and Shoot Gets to the Line Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.8 3.5 2.6 111.7 20.0% 51.5%
❄️❄️❄️: Sears is averaging 5.7 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 7.2 points below his season average.

#15 Noah Clowney

Role: Stretch Big
Height: 6'10" | Weight: 210 lbs

Stretch Big Man Roll Man Defensive Rebounder Smart Shot Selection Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10.2 7.9 0.8 113.0 18.2% 55.6%

#5 Jahvon Quinerly

Role: Unknown
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 175 lbs

Distributor Turnover Prone Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
7.7 1.9 3.8 99.2 23.9% 45.9%

#0 Jaden Bradley

Role: Domineering Ball Handler
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 185 lbs

Distributor Turnover Prone Poor Finisher Takes Tough Shots Gets to the Line
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
7.1 2.8 3.2 99.1 21.4% 42.7%

ATS

Alabama ATS Performance

This Season

Alabama is 21-15-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 18 of 36 Alabama games (50%) this season.

Alabama is 6-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 4 of Alabama’s 9 games on neutral floors (44.4%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/7/2022 Longwood W, 75-54 -17 W 4 150.5 UNDER -21.5
11/11/2022 Liberty W, 95-59 -8.5 W 27.5 147 OVER 7
11/15/2022 at South Alabama W, 65-55 -11 L -1 147.5 UNDER -27.5
11/18/2022 Jacksonville State W, 104-62 -20 W 22 148 OVER 18
11/24/2022 vs. Michigan State W, 81-70 -1.5 W 9.5 145 OVER 6
11/25/2022 vs. UConn L, 67-82 -1 L -16 150.5 UNDER -1.5
11/27/2022 vs. North Carolina W, 103-101 -1 W 1 153.5 OVER 50.5
12/3/2022 South Dakota State W, 78-65 -17.5 L -4.5 151.5 UNDER -8.5
12/10/2022 at Houston W, 71-65 9 W 15 129.5 OVER 6.5
12/13/2022 Memphis W, 91-88 -6.5 L -3.5 146.5 OVER 32.5
12/17/2022 vs. Gonzaga L, 90-100 2 L -8 158 OVER 32
12/20/2022 Jackson State W, 84-64 -29.5 L -9.5 156 UNDER -8
12/28/2022 at Mississippi State W, 78-67 -2 W 9 138.5 OVER 6.5
1/3/2023 Ole Miss W, 84-62 -11 W 11 146 UNDER 0
1/7/2023 Kentucky W, 78-52 -6.5 W 19.5 152.5 UNDER -22.5
1/11/2023 at Arkansas W, 84-69 -1 W 14 148.5 OVER 4.5
1/14/2023 LSU W, 106-66 -6 W 34 147.5 OVER 24.5
1/17/2023 at Vanderbilt W, 78-66 -9.5 W 2.5 156.5 UNDER -12.5
1/21/2023 at Missouri W, 85-64 -5.5 W 15.5 162.5 UNDER -13.5
1/25/2023 Mississippi State W, 66-63 -13 L -10 141 UNDER -12
1/28/2023 at Oklahoma L, 69-93 -6 L -30 147 OVER 15
1/31/2023 Vanderbilt W, 101-44 -14.5 W 42.5 154 UNDER -9
2/4/2023 at LSU W, 79-69 -11 L -1 147 OVER 1
2/8/2023 Florida W, 97-69 -8.5 W 19.5 148 OVER 18
2/11/2023 at Auburn W, 77-69 -2.5 W 5.5 152.5 UNDER -6.5
2/15/2023 at Tennessee L, 59-68 3 L -6 144.5 UNDER -17.5
2/18/2023 Georgia W, 108-59 -17.5 W 31.5 148.5 OVER 18.5
2/22/2023 at South Carolina W, 78-76 -17.5 L -15.5 148 OVER 6
2/25/2023 Arkansas W, 86-83 -8.5 L -5.5 153 OVER 16
3/1/2023 Auburn W, 90-85 -9.5 L -4.5 151.5 OVER 23.5
3/4/2023 at Texas A&M L, 61-67 1.5 L -4.5 150.5 UNDER -22.5
3/10/2023 vs. Mississippi State W, 72-49 -7 W 16 136 UNDER -15
3/11/2023 vs. Missouri W, 72-61 -9.5 W 1.5 157.5 UNDER -24.5
3/12/2023 vs. Texas A&M W, 82-63 -4 W 15 145 UNDER 0
3/16/2023 vs. Texas A&M-CC W, 96-75 -22.5 L -1.5 156.5 OVER 14.5
3/18/2023 vs. Maryland W, 73-51 -8 W 14 144.5 UNDER -20.5

Head to Head

Alabama is 2-0-0 against the spread when it plays against Maryland in recorded games since 2021. The over has hit in 1 out of 2 recorded head-to-head games (50%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/22/2021 vs. Maryland W, 96-77 -6 W 13 137.5 OVER 35.5
3/18/2023 vs. Maryland W, 73-51 -8 W 14 144.5 UNDER -20.5

Maryland ATS Performance

This Season

Maryland is 20-15-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 11 of 35 Maryland games (31.4%) this season.

Maryland is 4-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 2 of Maryland’s 7 games on neutral floors (28.6%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/7/2022 Niagara W, 71-49 -16 W 6 136 UNDER -16
11/10/2022 Western Carolina W, 71-51 -20.5 L -0.5 139.5 UNDER -17.5
11/15/2022 Binghamton W, 76-52 -19.5 W 4.5 136.5 UNDER -8.5
11/19/2022 vs. Saint Louis W, 95-67 2.5 W 30.5 146 OVER 16
11/20/2022 vs. Miami W, 88-70 -2 W 16 142 OVER 16
11/25/2022 Coppin State W, 95-79 -22 L -6 146.5 OVER 27.5
11/29/2022 at Louisville W, 79-54 -9.5 W 15.5 136 UNDER -3
12/2/2022 Illinois W, 71-66 -2 W 3 145.5 UNDER -8.5
12/6/2022 at Wisconsin L, 59-64 1 L -4 129 UNDER -6
12/11/2022 vs. Tennessee L, 53-56 -5 L -8 132.5 UNDER -23.5
12/14/2022 UCLA L, 60-87 -1 L -28 140.5 OVER 6.5
12/22/2022 Saint Peter's W, 75-45 -21.5 W 8.5 130 UNDER -10
12/29/2022 Umbc W, 80-64 -17.5 L -1.5 147.5 UNDER -3.5
1/1/2023 at Michigan L, 46-81 0 L -35 144.5 UNDER -17.5
1/5/2023 at Rutgers L, 50-64 6 L -8 130 UNDER -16
1/8/2023 Ohio State W, 80-73 -1 W 6 137.5 OVER 15.5
1/15/2023 at Iowa L, 67-81 6.5 L -7.5 150.5 UNDER -2.5
1/19/2023 Michigan W, 64-58 -3 W 3 142 UNDER -20
1/22/2023 at Purdue L, 55-58 10.5 W 7.5 133.5 UNDER -20.5
1/25/2023 Wisconsin W, 73-55 -4.5 W 13.5 124 OVER 4
1/28/2023 Nebraska W, 82-63 -11.5 W 7.5 130.5 OVER 14.5
1/31/2023 Indiana W, 66-55 -2.5 W 8.5 140 UNDER -19
2/4/2023 at Minnesota W, 81-46 -8.5 W 26.5 130.5 UNDER -3.5
2/7/2023 at Michigan State L, 58-63 4 L -1 131.5 UNDER -10.5
2/11/2023 Penn State W, 74-68 -8 L -2 134.5 OVER 7.5
2/16/2023 Purdue W, 68-54 2 W 16 133 UNDER -11
2/19/2023 at Nebraska L, 66-70 -7.5 L -11.5 134 OVER 2
2/22/2023 Minnesota W, 88-70 -15.5 W 2.5 129.5 OVER 28.5
2/26/2023 Northwestern W, 75-59 -6.5 W 9.5 130.5 OVER 3.5
3/1/2023 at Ohio State L, 62-73 -2 L -13 137 UNDER -2
3/5/2023 at Penn State L, 64-65 2 W 1 135 UNDER -6
3/9/2023 vs. Minnesota W, 70-54 -13 W 3 133 UNDER -9
3/10/2023 vs. Indiana L, 60-70 1 L -9 135 UNDER -5
3/16/2023 vs. West Virginia W, 67-65 2.5 W 4.5 140 UNDER -8
3/18/2023 vs. Alabama L, 51-73 8 L -14 144.5 UNDER -20.5

Head to Head

Maryland is 0-2-0 against the spread when it plays against Alabama in recorded games since 2021. The over has hit in 1 out of 2 recorded head-to-head games (50%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/22/2021 vs. Alabama L, 77-96 6 L -13 137.5 OVER 35.5
3/18/2023 vs. Alabama L, 51-73 8 L -14 144.5 UNDER -20.5
Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Brandon Miller (03/19): Miller supplied 19 points (5-17 FG, 2-6 3Pt, 7-8 FT), seven rebounds and one block in 34 minutes during Saturday's 73-51 win over Maryland.
  • Brandon Miller (03/18): Miller (groin) is in the starting lineup for Saturday's game against Maryland.
  • Brandon Miller (03/18): Miller (groin) is expected to play Saturday against Maryland, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Brandon Miller (03/17): Miller (groin) was limited at Friday's practice but is expected to be available for Saturday's game against Maryland, Charlie Potter of 247Sports.com reports.
  • Brandon Miller (03/16): Coach Nate Oats said Brandon Miller suffered a groin injury in the SEC title game versus Texas A&;M, Glenn Guilbeau of OutKick.com reports.
  • Hakim Hart (03/16): Hart registered 15 points (7-13 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 0-1 FT), three rebounds, four assists and two steals across 39 minutes during Thursday's 67-65 win over West Virginia.
  • Julian Reese (03/16): Reese recorded 17 points (6-9 FG, 5-10 FT), nine rebounds, three assists and three blocks across 37 minutes during Thursday's 67-65 win over West Virginia.
  • Dom Welch (03/12): Welch played one minute during Saturday's 72-61 win over Missouri.
  • Jahvon Quinerly (03/11): Quinerly chipped in one point (0-9 FG, 0-4 3Pt, 1-2 FT), three rebounds and seven assists across 31 minutes during Saturday's 72-61 win over Missouri.
  • Dom Welch (03/11): Welch (tailbone) will be available Saturday, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Dom Welch (03/10): Welch (back) is dealing with a bruised tailbone, Charlie Potter of 247Sports.com reports.
  • Jahvon Quinerly (03/10): Quinerly is in the starting lineup for Friday's SEC Tournament game against Mississippi State.
  • Jaden Bradley (03/10): Bradley is not listed in the starting five ahead of Friday's game against Mississippi State.
  • Don Carey (03/10): Carey closed Thursday's 70-54 victory over Minnesota with 11 points (4-9 FG, 3-7 3Pt), two rebounds, three assists and two steals in 31 minutes.
  • Ian Martinez (03/06): Martinez contributed 11 points (4-5 FG, 3-4 3Pt) and two rebounds across 18 minutes during Sunday's 65-64 loss to Penn State.
  • Donta Scott (03/06): Scott supplied one point (0-5 FG, 0-3 3Pt, 1-2 FT), five rebounds and two assists across 32 minutes during Sunday's 65-64 loss to Penn State.
  • Jahmir Young (03/06): Young closed with 26 points (9-17 FG, 3-6 3Pt, 5-6 FT), eight rebounds, one assist and one steal across 35 minutes during Sunday's 65-64 loss to Penn State.
  • Jahvon Quinerly (03/05): Quinerly supplied 12 points (5-11 FG, 2-6 3Pt), one rebound, three assists and two steals across 33 minutes during Saturday's 67-61 loss to Texas A&;M.
  • Brandon Miller (03/05): Miller logged 19 points (7-23 FG, 2-12 3Pt, 3-3 FT), 10 rebounds and two assists over 36 minutes before fouling out of Saturday's 67-61 loss to Texas A&;M.
  • Noah Clowney (03/05): Clowney contributed 11 points (5-9 FG, 1-4 3Pt), seven rebounds, two assists, two blocks and one steal over 37 minutes during Saturday's 67-61 loss to Texas A&;M.
  • Julian Reese (03/02): Reese provided 17 points (6-8 FG, 5-8 FT), 12 rebounds, two assists and three blocks across 35 minutes during Wednesday's 73-62 loss to Ohio State.
  • Charles Bediako (02/23): Bediako (undisclosed) posted 10 points (4-4 FG, 2-4 FT), nine rebounds, two blocks and one steal across 33 minutes during Wednesday's 78-76 OT win over South Carolina.
  • Brandon Miller (02/23): Miller logged 41 points (14-25 FG, 6-13 3Pt, 7-8 FT), eight rebounds, three steals, two blocks and one assist across 43 minutes during Alabama's overtime win Wednesday at South Carolina.
  • Charles Bediako (02/21): Bediako (undisclosed) was a limited participant during Monday's practice, Mike Rodak of AL.com reports.
  • Jahmir Young (02/21): Young provided 16 points (6-16 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 3-3 FT), six rebounds, six assists and one block across 39 minutes during Sunday's 70-66 OT loss to Nebraska.