Preview: Maryland vs. Alabama

Game Maryland Terrapins vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Date: March 22nd, 2021 8:50 PM
TV: TNT
Spread: ALA -6
Total: 138.5 Open 137.5

Preview

Maryland Offense vs. Alabama Defense

The Terrapins are ranked 32nd nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Maryland shoots 53.3 percent on twos and 35.3 percent on threes for a 53.2 effective field goal percentage.

Alabama’s defense is ranked 3rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 46.8 percent on twos and 29.1 percent on threes for a 45.8 effective field goal percentage against the Crimson Tide.

Basics
  • Maryland is underseeded according to efficiency metrics. The 10th seeded Terrapins are ranked 34th nationally per Bart Torvik. Their computer numbers suggest they should be closer to a 8 or 9 seed.
  • The Terrapins are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 78.1 inches according to KenPom.com. Alabama should match up well against the Terrapins’ size, with an average height of 77.74 inches.
  • Maryland plays at a deliberate pace. The Terrapins average 65 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball. Alabama prefers to play fast and averages 74 possessions per game meaning this should be a game of contrasting tempo.
Extra Possessions
  • Maryland does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Terrapins only turn it over on 16.7 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a Alabama defense that forces giveaways on 20.5 percent of possessions.
  • Maryland is unique because its guards are aggressive on the offensive glass. Perimeter players account for 29.2 percent of the Terrapins’ offensive boards. That should put extra pressure on Alabama’s perimeter players to clean up the glass.
Shot Profile
  • Maryland’s offensive attack is perimeter-oriented. The Terrapins attempt 44 percent of their shots from 3-point range.
  • Alabama does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, ALA contests 57 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Maryland’s offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 52 percent of the Terrapins’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • Maryland is a tough scout because its bigs can stretch the floor. The Terrapins have 2 bigs with at least 75 3-point attempts including Donta Scott.
  • Maryland is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Terrapins shoot 62 percent at the rim and Alabama allows 54 percent shooting inside of five feet.
  • Alabama’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Crimson Tide opponents attempt 27 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 36 percent clip. Maryland’s offense shoots 39 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Alabama’s defense excels at preventing assisted field goals and forcing one-on-one play with a style of “no help” defense popularized by Luke Yaklich. The Crimson Tide only allow their opponents to record assists on 44 percent of made baskets.
  • Maryland’s offense incorporates more off-ball actions and screens than the average Division I team. The Terrapins score 9.3 points per game off of off-ball actions at 1.07 points per play. Alabama’s defense excels at defending off-ball sets, allowing just 0.88 points per play.

Alabama Offense vs. Maryland Defense

The Crimson Tide are ranked 31st nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Alabama shoots 50.7 percent on twos and 35.3 percent on threes for a 51.7 effective field goal percentage.

Maryland’s defense is ranked 44th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 46.2 percent on twos and 34.8 percent on threes for a 48.7 effective field goal percentage against the Terrapins.

Basics
  • Maryland’s defense needs to get back on track in the NCAA Tournament. Over the last 30 days, the Terrapins are ranked 76th in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to 44th overall.
  • Alabama plays as fast as any team in the country. The Crimson Tide average 74 possessions per game. On the other side, Maryland prefers to control the game and does a good job of that. Terrapins games only average 65 possessions per game
Extra Possessions
  • The game should be fairly turnover neutral on this side of the ball. Alabama turns it over on 18.6 percent of possessions and Maryland forces giveaways on 16.8 percent of possessions.
  • Alabama does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Crimson Tide score 16.9 points points per game off of turnovers. Maryland avoids turnovers for touchdowns, allowing only 10.9 points per game off of giveaways.
  • Alabama is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Crimson Tide grab 32.8 percent of their missed shots. Maryland matches up well with Alabama’s offensive rebounding prowess. The Terrapins rebound 73.5 percent of their opponents’ misses this season.
Shot Profile
  • Alabama’s offensive attack is perimeter-oriented. The Crimson Tide attempt 46 percent of their shots from 3-point range. The Crimson Tide also make a lot of those attempts, shooting 35 percent from outside the arc. Maryland’s defense is vulnerable against the three, allowing its opponents to attempt 42 percent of their shots from outside the arc.
  • Maryland does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, MD contests 57 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Alabama’s offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 52 percent of the Crimson Tide’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • Alabama is difficult to guard because it has 3 players on the roster shooting at least 38 percent from 3-point range on over 50 perimeter attempts.
  • Alabama is a tough scout because its bigs can stretch the floor. The Crimson Tide have one big with at least 75 3-point attempts including Alex Reese.
  • Alabama struggles to create good looks at the rim and shoots just 53 percent around the basket. Maryland allows 54 percent shooting inside of five feet.
Style
  • Alabama loves to push the ball in transition. An impressive 24.9 percent of ALA’s offensive plays are in transition and those transition plays create 21.5 points per game. Maryland’s defense does a great job of limiting transition opportunities and only allows 9.3 points per game in transition.
  • Alabama runs more isolation sets than the average Division I team. The Crimson Tide score 10.2 points per game out of ioslations at 0.81 points per play. Maryland’s defense excels at defending one-on-one, allowing just 0.68 points per isolation play.

Bottom Line

Will we see an upset? Bart Torvik gives Maryland a 34 percent chance of advancing and predicts a 72-68 final score.

MD Personnel

#2 Aaron Wiggins

Role: Runaround Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 200 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Off Screen Shooter Off the Dribble Shooter Isolation Scorer Go-To Guy Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
14.5 5.8 2.5 104.4 24.9% 52.3%

#5 Eric Ayala

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 195 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Isolation Scorer Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
15.1 4.3 2.2 109.4 23.6% 52.7%

#24 Donta Scott

Role: Pick and Pop Big
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 225 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Stretch Big Man Pick and Pop Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
11 5.9 2 112.8 19.1% 60.1%

#11 Darryl Morsell

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 200 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Mid-Range Specialist Turnover Prone Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9 4 2.8 97.9 20.0% 51.8%

#13 Hakim Hart

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 200 lbs

Smart Shot Selection Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
7.1 3.5 1.9 111.7 15.7% 53.9%

ALA Personnel

#5 Jaden Shackelford

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 195 lbs

Transition Scorer Isolation Scorer Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
14 3.8 2 109.9 22.8% 49.3%

#23 John Petty

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 184 lbs

Transition Scorer Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.6 5.2 1.9 108.3 19.8% 53.8%

#13 Jahvon Quinerly

Role: Domineering Ball Handler
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 175 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Transition Scorer Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Go-To Guy Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.8 2.1 3.2 110.1 26.2% 56.4%

#1 Herbert Jones

Role: Reluctant Shooter
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 205 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Distributor Transition Scorer Turnover Prone Pick Pocket Isolation Scorer Poor Finisher Go-To Guy Gets to the Line
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
11.2 6.6 3.3 103.3 25.4% 48.1%

#11 Joshua Primo

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 185 lbs

Transition Scorer Corner 3-Point Specialist Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.1 3.4 0.8 106.1 17.6% 54.1%

ATS

Alabama ATS Performance

This Season

Alabama is 18-15-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 18 of 33 Alabama games (54.5%) this season.

Alabama is 5-5-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 6 of Alabama’s 10 games on neutral floors (60%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 Jacksonville State W, 81-57 -19.5 W 4.5 149.5 UNDER -11.5
11/30/2020 vs. Stanford L, 64-82 0 L -18 149 UNDER -3
12/1/2020 vs. UNLV W, 86-74 -9.5 W 2.5 155.5 OVER 4.5
12/2/2020 vs. Providence W, 88-71 -1 W 16 150.5 OVER 8.5
12/12/2020 vs. Clemson L, 56-64 2 L -6 144.5 UNDER -24.5
12/15/2020 Furman W, 83-80 -6.5 L -3.5 150.5 OVER 12.5
12/19/2020 Western Kentucky L, 71-73 -6.5 L -8.5 154.5 UNDER -10.5
12/22/2020 East Tennessee State W, 85-69 -14.5 W 1.5 140.5 OVER 13.5
12/29/2020 Ole Miss W, 82-64 0 W 18 142.5 OVER 3.5
1/2/2021 at Tennessee W, 71-63 9.5 W 17.5 142.5 UNDER -8.5
1/5/2021 Florida W, 86-71 -2.5 W 12.5 153.5 OVER 3.5
1/9/2021 at Auburn W, 94-90 -5 L -1 150.5 OVER 33.5
1/12/2021 at Kentucky W, 85-65 2 W 22 148 OVER 2
1/16/2021 Arkansas W, 90-59 -2 W 29 161.5 UNDER -12.5
1/19/2021 at LSU W, 105-75 1 W 31 163.5 OVER 16.5
1/23/2021 Mississippi State W, 81-73 -9.5 L -1.5 149 OVER 5
1/26/2021 Kentucky W, 70-59 -8 W 3 147 UNDER -18
1/30/2021 at Oklahoma L, 61-66 -1.5 L -6.5 154.5 UNDER -27.5
2/3/2021 LSU W, 78-60 -8.5 W 9.5 164 UNDER -26
2/6/2021 at Missouri L, 65-68 -2.5 L -5.5 152.5 UNDER -19.5
2/9/2021 at South Carolina W, 81-78 -6.5 L -3.5 155.5 OVER 3.5
2/13/2021 Georgia W, 115-82 -13 W 20 158.5 OVER 38.5
2/20/2021 Vanderbilt W, 82-78 -14 L -10 155.5 OVER 4.5
2/24/2021 at Arkansas L, 66-81 -1.5 L -16.5 157.5 UNDER -10.5
2/27/2021 at Mississippi State W, 64-59 -6 L -1 143.5 UNDER -20.5
3/2/2021 Auburn W, 70-58 -10.5 W 1.5 157 UNDER -29
3/6/2021 at Georgia W, 89-79 -7 W 3 160.5 OVER 7.5
3/12/2021 vs. Mississippi State W, 85-48 -8.5 W 28.5 141 UNDER -8
3/13/2021 vs. Tennessee W, 73-68 -4.5 W 0.5 139.5 OVER 1.5
3/14/2021 vs. LSU W, 80-79 -6.5 L -5.5 157.5 OVER 1.5
3/20/2021 vs. Iona W, 68-55 -17 L -4 147 UNDER -24
3/22/2021 vs. Maryland W, 96-77 -6 W 13 137.5 OVER 35.5
3/28/2021 vs. UCLA L, 78-88 -6.5 L -16.5 145 OVER 21

Head to Head

Alabama is 1-0-0 against the spread when it plays against Maryland in recorded games since 2021. The over has hit in 1 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (100%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/22/2021 vs. Maryland W, 96-77 -6 W 13 137.5 OVER 35.5

Maryland ATS Performance

This Season

Maryland is 13-17-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 11 of 30 Maryland games (36.7%) this season.

Maryland is 2-2-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 2 of Maryland’s 4 games on neutral floors (50%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 Old Dominion W, 85-67 -7.5 W 10.5 132.5 OVER 19.5
11/27/2020 Navy W, 82-52 -17.5 W 12.5 134 UNDER 0
11/29/2020 Mt. St. Mary's W, 79-61 -19.5 L -1.5 139 OVER 1
12/4/2020 Saint Peter's W, 90-57 -13 W 20 134 OVER 13
12/9/2020 at Clemson L, 51-67 2.5 L -13.5 135.5 UNDER -17.5
12/14/2020 Rutgers L, 60-74 -2.5 L -16.5 140.5 UNDER -6.5
12/22/2020 La Salle W, 84-71 -15 L -2 133 OVER 22
12/25/2020 at Purdue L, 70-73 6 W 3 137.5 OVER 5.5
12/28/2020 at Wisconsin W, 70-64 9.5 W 15.5 135.5 UNDER -1.5
12/31/2020 Michigan L, 73-84 2 L -9 142.5 OVER 14.5
1/4/2021 at Indiana L, 55-63 4.5 L -3.5 137.5 UNDER -19.5
1/7/2021 Iowa L, 67-89 5.5 L -16.5 155.5 OVER 0.5
1/10/2021 at Illinois W, 66-63 10 W 13 146.5 UNDER -17.5
1/19/2021 at Michigan L, 63-87 10 L -14 140.5 OVER 9.5
1/23/2021 at Minnesota W, 63-49 6 W 20 145.5 UNDER -33.5
1/27/2021 Wisconsin L, 55-61 3.5 L -2.5 130.5 UNDER -14.5
2/2/2021 Purdue W, 61-60 -2.5 L -1.5 134.5 UNDER -13.5
2/5/2021 at Penn State L, 50-55 2 L -3 144 UNDER -39
2/8/2021 Ohio State L, 65-73 3.5 L -4.5 139 UNDER -1
2/14/2021 Minnesota W, 72-59 -3 W 10 137.5 UNDER -6.5
2/16/2021 Nebraska W, 64-50 -9.5 W 4.5 135.5 UNDER -21.5
2/17/2021 Nebraska W, 79-71 -10.5 L -2.5 136 OVER 14
2/21/2021 at Rutgers W, 68-59 4.5 W 13.5 131 UNDER -4
2/28/2021 Michigan State W, 73-55 -2.5 W 15.5 134 UNDER -6
3/3/2021 at Northwestern L, 55-60 -4.5 L -9.5 130.5 UNDER -15.5
3/7/2021 Penn State L, 61-66 -5.5 L -10.5 136 UNDER -9
3/11/2021 vs. Michigan State W, 68-57 -1 W 10 130.5 UNDER -5.5
3/12/2021 vs. Michigan L, 66-79 8 L -5 133.5 OVER 11.5
3/20/2021 vs. UConn W, 63-54 3 W 12 130 UNDER -13
3/22/2021 vs. Alabama L, 77-96 6 L -13 137.5 OVER 35.5

Head to Head

Maryland is 0-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Alabama in recorded games since 2021. The over has hit in 1 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (100%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/22/2021 vs. Alabama L, 77-96 6 L -13 137.5 OVER 35.5
Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Jordan Bruner (03/28): Bruner is in the starting lineup for Sunday's game against UCLA.
  • John Petty (03/23): Petty managed 20 points (7-15 FG, 4-9 3Pt, 2-2 FT), six rebounds, two assists and two steals during Monday's NCAA Tournament win over Maryland.
  • Jaden Shackelford (03/23): Shackelford tallied 21 points (6-11 FG, 5-8 3Pt, 4-4 FT), three rebounds, three assists and one steal during Monday's NCAA Tournament win over Maryland.
  • Darryl Morsell (03/23): Morsell intends to have offseason surgery to address a fractured labrum in his shoulder, Daniel Oyefusi of the Baltimore Sun reports.
  • Hakim Hart (03/23): Hart recorded six points (3-4 FG, 0-1 3Pt), four assists, two rebounds and two steals over 30 minutes in Monday's 96-77 loss to Alabama.
  • Darryl Morsell (03/23): Morsell posted 10 points (4-8 FG, 0-3 3Pt, 2-2 FT), three assists, two rebounds and one block over 31 minutes in Monday's 96-77 loss to Alabama.
  • Donta Scott (03/23): Scott compiled 12 points (5-10 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 0-1 FT), five assists and one steal over 29 minutes in Monday's 96-77 loss to Alabama.
  • Eric Ayala (03/23): Ayala recorded 13 points (5-14 FG, 2-9 3Pt, 1-2 FT), six rebounds, one assist and one steal over 34 minutes in Monday's 96-77 loss to Alabama.
  • Aaron Wiggins (03/23): Wiggins posted 27 points (11-17 FG, 5-8 3Pt, 0-2 FT), six rebounds, three assists and two steals over 38 minutes in Monday's 96-77 loss to Alabama.
  • Joshua Primo (03/22): Primo (knee) posted 10 points (4-6 FG, 2-4 3Pt) and four rebounds during Monday's NCAA Tournament win over Maryland.
  • Jordan Bruner (03/22): Bruner is not in the starting lineup for Monday's game against Maryland.
  • Joshua Primo (03/21): Primo will be a game-time decision for Monday's game against Maryland, according to Michael Casagrande of AL.com.
  • Eric Ayala (03/21): Ayala compiled 23 points (8-14 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 4-4 FT), five rebounds, three steals and two assists over 34 minutes in Saturday's 63-54 win over UConn.
  • Joshua Primo (03/20): Primo (knee) is in uniform but not participating in warmups ahead of Saturday's NCAA Tournament opener versus Iona, Michael Casagrande of AL.com reports.
  • Joshua Primo (03/17): Coach Nate Oats said that Primo (knee) is yet to even start jogging yet, Mike Rodak of AL.com reports.
  • Joshua Primo (03/15): Primo (knee) "will see how rehab goes this week" before deciding whether he can play against Iona or not, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Herbert Jones (03/15): Jones recorded 13 points (6-16 FG, 0-3 3Pt, 1-2 FT), 11 rebounds, six assists, four blocks and one steal during Sunday's SEC Tournament Championship win over LSU.
  • John Petty (03/15): Petty mustered four points (2-8 FG, 0-3 3Pt), six rebounds and two steals during Sunday's SEC Tournament Championship victory over LSU.
  • Jaden Shackelford (03/15): Shackelford tallied 21 points (8-19 FG, 5-13 3Pt), five rebounds, four assists and one steal during Sunday's SEC Tournament Championship win over LSU.
  • Joshua Primo (03/14): Primo (knee) was seen using crutches and wearing a knee brace as he made his way onto the floor ahead of Sunday's SEC Championship game against LSU, Mike Rodak of AL.com reports.
  • Keon Ellis (03/13): Ellis will start Saturday's contest against Tennessee, Charlie Potter of 247 Sports reports.
  • Joshua Primo (03/13): Primo has suffered a sprained MCL and won't play Saturday, Mike Rodak of AL.com reports. He's considered day-to-day moving forward.
  • Darryl Morsell (03/13): Morsell recorded 16 points (7-9 FG, 0-1 3Pt, 2-2 FT), six rebounds, three assists and one steal over 26 minutes in Friday's 79-66 loss to Michigan.
  • Joshua Primo (03/12): Primo (leg) won't retake the floor Friday against Mississippi State, Charlie Potter of 247Spors reports.
  • Eric Ayala (03/12): Ayala logged 21 points (5-15 FG, 1-7 3Pt, 10-11 FT), nine rebounds, four assists and two steals over 34 minutes in Thursday's 68-57 win over Michigan State.