Preview: Kentucky vs. Kansas State

Game	Kentucky Wildcats vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Date:	March 19th, 2023 2:40 PM
TV:	CBS

Preview

Kentucky Offense vs. Kansas State Defense

Kentucky checks in at 16th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Wildcats shoot 50.4 percent on twos and 35.4 percent on threes for a 51.2 effective field goal percentage.

Kansas State is ranked 17th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Kansas State opponents make 48.8 percent of their twos and 30.1 percent of their threes for a 47.5 effective field goal percentage.

Basics

Kansas State can get into trouble given its tendency to commit fouls. The Wildcats send their opponents to the free-throw line 37 times per 100 shot attempts. That’s one of the worst rates in the country and Kentucky gets to the stripe 32 times per 100 field goal attempts.

Extra Possessions

Kansas State is one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers. KSU forces giveaways on 20.7 percent of offensive possessions while Kentucky turns it over on 17.3 percent of its possessions this season.
The Wildcats are fantastic on the offensive glass and rebound 38.7 percent of their missed shots. Kansas State is just okay on the defensive glass, grabbing 70.8 percent of opponent misses, which means the rebounding battle could swing this game in either direction.
Second chance points are crucial to Kentucky’s offense. The Wildcats score 14.6 points off of second chances and only allow 8.3 points per game, outscoring teams by 6.3 points per game just on second chance opportunities. Kansas State has struggled on the glass and has been outscored by 1.1 points per game in the paint.

Shot Profile

Kentucky’s offensive attack is interior-focused. The Wildcats only attempt 30 percent of their shots from 3-point range.
Kansas State only contests 48 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Kentucky excels at creating open jumpers. Only 46 percent of the Wildcats’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
Kentucky’s offense can be somewhat one-dimensional because there’s only one player (Reeves) on the roster who shoots 38% or better from 3-point range on 50+ attempts.
Kentucky is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Wildcats shoot 61 percent at the rim and Kansas State allows 59 percent shooting inside of five feet.
Kentucky’s offense is heavy on mid-range jumpers. The Wildcats attempt 32 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 37 percent clip.

Style

Kentucky has an elite transition offense which should create a significant advantage against Kansas State. The Wildcats score 13.5 points per game in transition, while Kansas State’s transition defense has been poor this year, allowing 12.4 points per game.
Kentucky’s ability to move the ball should create an advantage in this game. The Wildcats record assists on 55.7 percent makes and the Wildcats allow assists on 56 percent of makes.

Kansas State Offense vs. Kentucky Defense

Kansas State checks in at 56th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Wildcats shoot 51.8 percent on twos and 34 percent on threes for a 51.5 effective field goal percentage.

Kentucky is ranked 58th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Kentucky opponents make 48.3 percent of their twos and 33.1 percent of their threes for a 48.8 effective field goal percentage.

Basics

Kentucky’s defense has been playing very well over the last month. The Wildcats are ranked 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 58th for the season.
Kansas State is one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, averaging 2.5 years of experience weighted by minutes played, per KenPom.com.
The Wildcats’ rotation only has an average height of 76.3 inches according to KenPom.com, making them one of the shortest teams in the field.
Kansas State plays as fast as any team in the country. The Wildcats average 72 possessions per game.
Kansas State does a great job attacking full-court pressure defenses, scoring 0.97 points per play. Kentucky’s applies full court pressure on 9.3 percent of possessions which should allow the Wildcats to create an offensive advantage.
Kansas State does a great job of getting to the free-throw line. The Wildcats attempt 37 free throws per 100 field goal attempts.
You can trust Kansas State at the line in a close game. The Wildcats shoot 75 percent at the line for the season.

Extra Possessions

Turnovers have been a significant problem for the Wildcats this season. Kansas State turns the ball over on 20 percent of its offensive possessions but Kentucky doesn’t force many giveaways. Wildcats opponents turn the ball over on only 16.7 percent of their offensive possessions.
Kansas State does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Wildcats score 16.3 points points per game off of turnovers.
The Wildcats are fantastic on the offensive glass and rebound 31.1 percent of their missed shots. Kentucky is one of the better defensive rebounding teams in the field, grabbing 74.5 percent of opponent misses, which should negate this advantage.

Shot Profile

Kansas State dominates the paint. The Wildcats score 34.7 points and allow 29.3 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 5.3 points per game.
Kansas State is a tough scout because its bigs can stretch the floor. The Wildcats have one big with at least 75 3-point attempts including Ismael Massoud.
Kentucky’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Wildcats opponents attempt 25 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 35 percent clip. Kansas State’s offense shoots 33 percent on its mid-range attempts.

Style

Kansas State has an elite transition offense and scores 14.8 points per game in transition, while Kentucky’s transition defense has been run of the mill and allows 9.7 points per game in transition.
Kansas State is one of the better passing teams in the country and 64 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season.
Kansas State’s offense is overweight on off-ball screens and cuts compared to the rest of the field and should test Kentucky’s defensive discipline off the ball. The Wildcats average 9.4 points per game via cuts and off-ball screens, scoring 0.95 points per play on those actions. Kentucky’s defense is fairly average defending off the ball. Opponents score 0.96 points per play against the Wildcats.
Kansas State trusts its players to create in one-on-one situations and scores 8.1 points per game out of iso actions and average 0.80 points per isolation play.

Bottom Line

Will we see an upset? Bart Torvik gives Kentucky a 49 percent chance of advancing and predicts a 72-71 final score.

UK Personnel

#34 Oscar Tshiebwe

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 260 lbs

Finisher Pick and Pop Roll Man Mid-Range Specialist Pick Pocket Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Defensive Rebounder Go-To Guy Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
16.5	13.1	1.6	123.1	24.3%	56.3%

#12 Antonio Reeves

Role: Movement Wing
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 205 lbs

Off Screen Shooter Mid-Range Specialist Corner 3-Point Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
14.4	2.1	1.1	113.0	23.2%	52.8%

🔥🔥🔥: Reeves is averaging 24.3 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 9.9 points above his season average.

#0 Jacob Toppin

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 205 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Avoids Turnovers Below 65% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
12.5	6.9	2.2	111.6	20.8%	50%

🔥🔥🔥: Toppin is averaging 16.3 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 3.8 points above his season average.

#22 Cason Wallace

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 193 lbs

Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Pick Pocket Off the Dribble Shooter Takes Tough Shots Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
11.6	3.5	4.2	112.4	20.1%	51.6%

#24 Chris Livingston

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 220 lbs

Avoids Turnovers

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
6.2	4	0.7	108.1	15.0%	48.8%

KSU Personnel

#11 Keyontae Johnson

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 230 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Catch and Shoot Go-To Guy Cut and Finish Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
17.7	7	2.2	106.2	24.8%	57.3%

#1 Markquis Nowell

Role: Domineering Ball Handler
Height: 5'8" | Weight: 160 lbs

Distributor Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Poor Finisher Takes Tough Shots Go-To Guy Gets to the Line Minutes Logger Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
16.8	3.5	7.6	108.9	26.7%	47%

#35 Nae'Qwan Tomlin

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'10" | Weight: 210 lbs

Offensive Rebounder Smart Shot Selection Avoids Turnovers Inefficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
10.2	6	1.2	110.7	18.7%	52.1%

#13 Desi Sills

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 200 lbs

Gets to the Line

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
8.7	3.6	2.4	101.6	16.5%	47.8%

🔥🔥🔥: Sills is averaging 13 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 4.3 points above his season average.

#5 Cam Carter

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 190 lbs

Poor Finisher

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
6.4	3	1.5	86.9	15.5%	44.1%

ATS

Kansas State ATS Performance

This Season

Kansas State is 22-11-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 17 of 33 Kansas State games (51.5%) this season.

Kansas State is 4-1-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 2 of Kansas State’s 5 games on neutral floors (40%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/7/2022	UT Rio Grande Valley	W, 93-59	-21	W	13	147	OVER	5
11/11/2022	at California	W, 63-54	-6.5	W	2.5	133.5	UNDER	-16.5
11/17/2022	UMKC	W, 69-53	-17.5	L	-1.5	139.5	UNDER	-17.5
11/21/2022	vs. Rhode Island	W, 77-57	-7.5	W	12.5	134	UNDER	0
11/22/2022	vs. Nevada	W, 96-87	-2.5	W	6.5	142.5	OVER	40.5
11/23/2022	vs. LSU	W, 61-59	1	W	3	136.5	UNDER	-16.5
11/30/2022	at Butler	L, 64-76	1	L	-11	136	OVER	4
12/3/2022	Wichita State	W, 55-50	-6.5	L	-1.5	129.5	UNDER	-24.5
12/6/2022	Abilene Christian	W, 81-64	-14	W	3	138	OVER	7
12/11/2022	Incarnate Word	W, 98-50	-27	W	21	131	OVER	17
12/17/2022	Nebraska	W, 71-56	-2.5	W	12.5	133.5	UNDER	-6.5
12/21/2022	Radford	W, 73-65	-17	L	-9	137	OVER	1
12/31/2022	West Virginia	W, 82-76	-1.5	W	4.5	143.5	OVER	14.5
1/3/2023	at Texas	W, 116-103	10	W	23	139	OVER	80
1/7/2023	at Baylor	W, 97-95	6.5	W	8.5	147.5	OVER	44.5
1/10/2023	Oklahoma State	W, 65-57	-3.5	W	4.5	135	UNDER	-13
1/14/2023	at TCU	L, 68-82	3.5	L	-10.5	145.5	OVER	4.5
1/17/2023	Kansas	W, 83-82	2.5	W	3.5	147.5	OVER	17.5
1/21/2023	Texas Tech	W, 68-58	-4.5	W	5.5	145.5	UNDER	-19.5
1/24/2023	at Iowa State	L, 76-80	4.5	W	0.5	132	OVER	24
1/28/2023	Florida	W, 64-50	-5	W	9	142	UNDER	-28
1/31/2023	at Kansas	L, 78-90	7	L	-5	146.5	OVER	21.5
2/4/2023	Texas	L, 66-69	1	L	-2	148.5	UNDER	-13.5
2/7/2023	TCU	W, 82-61	-4.5	W	16.5	147	UNDER	-4
2/11/2023	at Texas Tech	L, 63-71	-1	L	-9	145	UNDER	-11
2/14/2023	at Oklahoma	L, 65-79	0	L	-14	141.5	OVER	2.5
2/18/2023	Iowa State	W, 61-55	-1.5	W	4.5	133.5	UNDER	-17.5
2/21/2023	Baylor	W, 75-65	-1	W	9	148.5	UNDER	-8.5
2/25/2023	at Oklahoma State	W, 73-68	3	W	8	143.5	UNDER	-2.5
3/1/2023	Oklahoma	W, 85-69	-6.5	W	9.5	141.5	OVER	12.5
3/4/2023	at West Virginia	L, 81-89	4	L	-4	150.5	OVER	19.5
3/9/2023	vs. TCU	L, 67-80	2	L	-11	148	UNDER	-1
3/17/2023	vs. Montana State	W, 77-65	-8.5	W	3.5	139	OVER	3

Head to Head

Kansas State is 1-0-0 against the spread when it plays against Kentucky in recorded games since 2018. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
3/22/2018	vs. Kentucky	W, 61-58	5.5	W	8.5	137	UNDER	-18

Kentucky ATS Performance

This Season

Kentucky is 16-17-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 21 of 33 Kentucky games (63.6%) this season.

Kentucky is 1-4-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 2 of Kentucky’s 5 games on neutral floors (40%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/7/2022	Howard	W, 95-63	-27.5	W	4.5	143.5	OVER	14.5
11/11/2022	Duquesne	W, 77-52	-18	W	7	143.5	UNDER	-14.5
11/15/2022	vs. Michigan State	L, 77-86	-5.5	L	-14.5	141.5	OVER	21.5
11/17/2022	South Carolina State	W, 106-63	-39	W	4	145.5	OVER	23.5
11/20/2022	at Gonzaga	L, 72-88	3	L	-13	155.5	OVER	4.5
11/23/2022	North Florida	W, 96-56	-25.5	W	14.5	150.5	OVER	1.5
11/29/2022	Bellarmine	W, 60-41	-24.5	L	-5.5	140	UNDER	-39
12/4/2022	vs. Michigan	W, 73-69	-9	L	-5	143.5	UNDER	-1.5
12/10/2022	Yale	W, 69-59	-15.5	L	-5.5	136	UNDER	-8
12/17/2022	vs. UCLA	L, 53-63	2	L	-8	143	UNDER	-27
12/21/2022	Florida A&M	W, 88-68	-38.5	L	-18.5	132	OVER	24
12/28/2022	at Missouri	L, 75-89	-2.5	L	-16.5	153.5	OVER	10.5
12/31/2022	Louisville	W, 86-63	-23.5	L	-0.5	137.5	OVER	11.5
1/3/2023	LSU	W, 74-71	-11	L	-8	139	OVER	6
1/7/2023	at Alabama	L, 52-78	6.5	L	-19.5	152.5	UNDER	-22.5
1/10/2023	South Carolina	L, 68-71	-17	L	-20	136.5	OVER	2.5
1/14/2023	at Tennessee	W, 63-56	13.5	W	20.5	134.5	UNDER	-15.5
1/17/2023	Georgia	W, 85-71	-10	W	4	136.5	OVER	19.5
1/21/2023	Texas A&M	W, 76-67	-5.5	W	3.5	136	OVER	7
1/24/2023	at Vanderbilt	W, 69-53	-2.5	W	13.5	144	UNDER	-22
1/28/2023	Kansas	L, 68-77	-2.5	L	-11.5	140	OVER	5
1/31/2023	at Ole Miss	W, 75-66	-7.5	W	1.5	135.5	OVER	5.5
2/4/2023	Florida	W, 72-67	-3.5	W	1.5	137	OVER	2
2/7/2023	Arkansas	L, 73-88	-5.5	L	-20.5	140	OVER	21
2/11/2023	at Georgia	L, 68-75	-8	L	-15	141.5	OVER	1.5
2/15/2023	at Mississippi State	W, 71-68	2.5	W	5.5	128	OVER	11
2/18/2023	Tennessee	W, 66-54	4	W	16	133	UNDER	-13
2/22/2023	at Florida	W, 82-74	-3	W	5	140	OVER	16
2/25/2023	Auburn	W, 86-54	-4	W	28	142.5	UNDER	-2.5
3/1/2023	Vanderbilt	L, 66-68	-10	L	-12	146.5	UNDER	-12.5
3/4/2023	at Arkansas	W, 88-79	5	W	14	141	OVER	26
3/10/2023	vs. Vanderbilt	L, 73-80	-7	L	-14	144.5	OVER	8.5
3/17/2023	vs. Providence	W, 61-53	-3.5	W	4.5	145	UNDER	-31

Head to Head

Kentucky is 0-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Kansas State in recorded games since 2018. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
3/22/2018	vs. Kansas State	L, 58-61	-5.5	L	-8.5	137	UNDER	-18

Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.

Markquis Nowell (03/18): Nowell finished with 17 points (7-12 FG, 3-6 3Pt), six rebounds, 14 assists and three steals across 37 minutes during Friday's 77-65 victory over Montana State.
Oscar Tshiebwe (03/18): Tshiebwe had eight points (4-10 FG), 25 rebounds, two assists, two blocks and three steals in 33 minutes during Friday's 61-53 win over Providence.
Sahvir Wheeler (03/17): Wheeler won't play in Friday's game versus Providence due to an ankle injury, Jack Pilgrim of Kentucky Sports Radio reports.
Sahvir Wheeler (03/16): Wheeler (ankle) is ready to play Kentucky's game Friday against Providence, according to Kyle Tucker of The Athletic.
Markquis Nowell (03/11): Nowell recorded 11 points (5-13 FG, 1-9 3Pt), three rebounds and five assists in 38 minutes during Thursday's 80-67 loss to TCU.
Keyontae Johnson (03/11): Johnson accumulated 14 points (6-12 FG, 2-6 3Pt), seven rebounds and three assists over 30 minutes before fouling out of Thursday's 80-67 loss to TCU.
CJ Fredrick (03/11): Fredrick posted zero points (0-1 FG), one assist and one steal across 14 minutes during Friday's 80-73 loss to Vanderbilt.
Cason Wallace (03/11): Wallace notched seven points (3-10 FG, 1-6 3Pt), four rebounds, five assists and three steals in 37 minutes during Friday's 80-73 loss to Vanderbilt.
Sahvir Wheeler (03/10): Wheeler (undisclosed) isn't dressed for warmups ahead of Friday's game versus Vanderbilt, Kyle Tucker of The Athletic reports.
CJ Fredrick (03/10): Coach Jon Calipari said Fredrick (undisclosed) will "give whatever he can" in Friday's game versus Vanderbilt, Tyler Thompson of Kentucky Sports Radio reports.
Cason Wallace (03/10): Coach John Calipari said Wallace (ankle) will start in Friday's game versus Vanderbilt, Tyler Thompson of Kentucky Sports Radio reports.
David N'Guessan (03/09): N'Guessan is not in the starting lineup for Thursday's game against TCU, Derek Young of On 3 Sports reports.
Desi Sills (03/09): Sills (undisclosed) is in the starting lineup for Thursday's game against TCU, Derek Young on On 3 Sports reports.
Cason Wallace (03/09): Wallace (ankle) is probable for the 2023 SEC Tournament, according to Kyle Tucker of The Athletic.
Sahvir Wheeler (03/09): Wheeler (undisclosed) may play during the 2023 SEC Tournament, according to Kyle Tucker of The Athletic.
Cason Wallace (03/06): Wallace (ankle) did not participate in practice Monday, Jeff Drummond of Rivals.com reports.
CJ Fredrick (03/06): Fredrick (undisclosed) did not participate in practice Monday, Jeff Drummond of Rivals.com reports.
Sahvir Wheeler (03/06): Wheeler (undisclosed) was inactive for Monday's team practice, Jeff Drummond of Rivals.com reports.
Adou Thiero (03/06): Thiero registered seven points (2-6 FG, 0-2 3Pt, 3-6 FT), five rebounds, two assists and one steal across 24 minutes during Saturday's 88-79 win over Arkansas.
Oscar Tshiebwe (03/06): Tshiebwe fouled out of Saturday's 88-79 win over Arkansas after recording 12 points (5-11 FG, 2-2 FT), 13 rebounds, one assist and one steal across 26 minutes.
Antonio Reeves (03/05): Reeves finished with 37 points (12-17 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 11-11 FT), one rebound and two assists across 40 minutes during Saturday's 88-79 victory over Arkansas.
Chris Livingston (03/05): Livingston accumulated one point (0-5 FG, 0-3 3Pt, 1-4 FT), nine rebounds, one assist, one block and one steal in 34 minutes during Saturday's 88-79 win over Arkansas.
Nae'Qwan Tomlin (03/05): Tomlin supplied six points (2-3 FG, 2-2 FT), five rebounds, two assists and one steal across 23 minutes before fouling out of Saturday's 89-81 loss to West Virginia.
David N'Guessan (03/04): N'Guessan notched seven points (3-3 FG, 1-2 FT) and four rebounds across 22 minutes during Saturday's 89-81 loss to West Virginia.
Brennan Canada (03/04): Canada isn't in the starting five for Saturday's game versus Arkansas.