Preview: Furman vs. San Diego State

Game	Furman Paladins vs. San Diego State Aztecs
Date:	March 18th, 2023 12:10 PM
TV:	CBS

Preview

Furman Offense vs. San Diego State Defense

The Paladins are ranked 37th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Furman shoots 59.5 percent on twos and 35.1 percent on threes for a 56.3 effective field goal percentage.

San Diego State’s defense is ranked 4th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 49.8 percent on twos and 29.3 percent on threes for a 47.5 effective field goal percentage against the Aztecs.

Basics

Furman does a great job attacking full-court pressure defenses, scoring 1.02 points per play. San Diego State’s applies full court pressure on 23 percent of possessions which should allow the Paladins to create an offensive advantage.
Furman does a great job of getting to the free-throw line. The Paladins attempt 34 free throws per 100 field goal attempts.
Furman makes 74 percent of its free throws which should come in handy in a close game.

Extra Possessions

Furman does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Paladins only turn it over on 15.8 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a San Diego State defense that forces giveaways on 19.7 percent of possessions.

Shot Profile

Furman’s offensive attack is perimeter-oriented. The Paladins attempt 47 percent of their shots from 3-point range. San Diego State’s defense is vulnerable against the three, allowing its opponents to attempt 40 percent of their shots from outside the arc.
San Diego State does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, SDSU contests 64 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Furman excels at creating open jumpers. Only 49 percent of the Paladins’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
Furman’s offense can be somewhat one-dimensional because there’s only one player (Slawson) on the roster who shoots 38% or better from 3-point range on 50+ attempts.
Furman is a tough scout because its bigs can stretch the floor. The Paladins have one big with at least 75 3-point attempts including Jalen Slawson.
Furman is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Paladins shoot 65 percent at the rim and San Diego State allows 58 percent shooting inside of five feet.

Style

Furman loves to push the ball in transition. An impressive 20.1 percent of FUR’s offensive plays are in transition and those transition plays create 16.0 points per game. San Diego State’s defense does a great job of limiting transition opportunities and only allows 9.2 points per game in transition.
Furman is one of the better passing teams in the country and 59.6 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season.

San Diego State Offense vs. Furman Defense

The Aztecs are ranked 52nd nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. San Diego State shoots 49.5 percent on twos and 35.3 percent on threes for a 50.7 effective field goal percentage.

Furman’s defense is ranked 185th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 51.3 percent on twos and 33.6 percent on threes for a 51 effective field goal percentage against the Paladins.

Basics

San Diego State’s offense enters the tournament on a cold streak. Over the last 30 days, the Aztecs are ranked 135th in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to 52nd for the year.
Furman’s defense needs to get back on track in the NCAA Tournament. Over the last 30 days, the Paladins are ranked 230th in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to 185th overall.
San Diego State is one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, averaging 2.8 years of experience weighted by minutes played, per KenPom.com.
According to KenPom, San Diego State is one of the “luckier” teams in the field, ranked 73rd nationally in luck, meaning that they’ve won more games than their adjusted efficiency margin stats would indicate.
San Diego State plays at a deliberate pace. The Aztecs average 67 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball.
San Diego State does a great job of getting to the free-throw line. The Aztecs attempt 34 free throws per 100 field goal attempts.

Extra Possessions

The game should be fairly turnover neutral on this side of the ball. San Diego State turns it over on 17.6 percent of possessions and Furman forces giveaways on 18.7 percent of possessions.
San Diego State is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Aztecs grab 32.1 percent of their missed shots. Furman is average on the defensive glass, grabbing 73 percent of opponent misses, and that matchup on the boards will be a key swing stat on Saturday.
Second chance points are crucial to San Diego State’s offense. The Aztecs score 11.5 points off of second chances and only allow 8.5 points per game, outscoring teams by 3.1 points per game just on second chance opportunities. Furman has struggled on the glass and has been outscored by 2.3 points per game in the paint.

Shot Profile

San Diego State’s offense can be somewhat one-dimensional because there’s only one player (Seiko) on the roster who shoots 38% or better from 3-point range on 50+ attempts.
San Diego State is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Aztecs shoot 62 percent at the rim and Furman allows 56 percent shooting inside of five feet.
San Diego State’s offense is heavy on mid-range jumpers. The Aztecs attempt 29 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 36 percent clip.

Style

Furman’s defense excels at preventing assisted field goals and forcing one-on-one play with a style of “no help” defense popularized by Luke Yaklich. The Paladins only allow their opponents to record assists on 43.6 percent of made baskets.
San Diego State runs a lot of off-ball actions. The Aztecs score 8.5 points per game out of off-ball screens and cuts at 1.11 points per play. Furman’s defense is fairly average defending off the ball. Opponents score 0.99 points per play against the Paladins.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik lists San Diego State as a 75-65 favorite, giving the Aztecs a 84 percent chance of advancing.

FUR Personnel

#3 Mike Bothwell

Role: Movement Wing
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 195 lbs

Catch and Shoot Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
18	3.5	3	125.3	23.2%	57.4%

#20 Jalen Slawson

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 215 lbs

Stretch Big Man Distributor Pick and Pop Roll Man Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Defensive Rebounder Smart Shot Selection Go-To Guy Gets to the Line Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
15.7	7.3	3.3	119.2	24.5%	61.3%

#1 JP Pegues

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 180 lbs

Distributor

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
12.3	3.8	4	111.4	20.4%	52.6%

🔥🔥🔥: Pegues is averaging 21 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 8.7 points above his season average.

#5 Marcus Foster

Role: Movement Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 200 lbs

Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
10.6	5.2	1.1	113.5	17.1%	53%

❄️❄️❄️: Foster is averaging 6 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 4.6 points below his season average.

#13 Garrett Hien

Role: Stretch Big
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 215 lbs

Stretch Big Man Smart Shot Selection Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Below 65% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
8.1	3.8	1.7	117.0	18.2%	60.5%

SDSU Personnel

#20 Matt Bradley

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 220 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Takes Tough Shots Go-To Guy Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
12.9	3.8	2.1	107.4	25.4%	48.2%

#12 Darrion Trammell

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 5'10" | Weight: 175 lbs

Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Pick Pocket Poor Finisher Takes Tough Shots

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
9.5	2.2	3.3	100.7	22.0%	42.5%

❄️❄️❄️: Trammell is averaging 6.3 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 3.2 points below his season average.

#5 Lamont Butler

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 195 lbs

Distributor Pick Pocket

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
8.5	2.6	3.2	98.4	21.6%	47%

#13 Jaedon LeDee

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 240 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Defensive Rebounder Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
7.9	5.1	1	116.0	23.8%	50.3%

#0 Keshad Johnson

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 225 lbs

Smart Shot Selection Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers Below 65% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
7.7	5.1	0.6	114.1	17.1%	56.8%

ATS

San Diego State ATS Performance

This Season

San Diego State is 19-15-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 14 of 34 San Diego State games (41.2%) this season.

San Diego State is 5-4-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 3 of San Diego State’s 9 games on neutral floors (33.3%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/7/2022	CSU Fullerton	W, 80-57	-21	W	2	131	OVER	6
11/11/2022	BYU	W, 82-75	-10.5	L	-3.5	134.5	OVER	22.5
11/15/2022	at Stanford	W, 74-62	-5	W	7	136	UNDER	0
11/21/2022	vs. Ohio State	W, 88-77	-2.5	W	8.5	138.5	OVER	26.5
11/22/2022	vs. Arizona	L, 70-87	1	L	-16	161.5	UNDER	-4.5
11/23/2022	vs. Arkansas	L, 74-78	-1	L	-5	141.5	OVER	10.5
11/29/2022	UC Irvine	W, 72-69	-13.5	L	-10.5	136	OVER	5
12/5/2022	Troy	W, 60-55	-15.5	L	-10.5	135	UNDER	-20
12/10/2022	vs. Saint Mary's	L, 61-68	-1.5	L	-8.5	126	OVER	3
12/12/2022	Kennesaw State	W, 88-54	-17.5	W	16.5	137	OVER	5
12/20/2022	UC San Diego	W, 62-46	-22.5	L	-6.5	132.5	UNDER	-24.5
12/28/2022	Air Force	W, 71-55	-17	L	-1	129.5	UNDER	-3.5
12/31/2022	at UNLV	W, 76-67	-3.5	W	5.5	139.5	OVER	3.5
1/7/2023	at Wyoming	W, 80-75	-8.5	L	-3.5	135.5	OVER	19.5
1/10/2023	Nevada	W, 74-65	-8	W	1	137	OVER	2
1/14/2023	New Mexico	L, 67-76	-8	L	-17	147.5	UNDER	-4.5
1/18/2023	at Colorado State	W, 82-76	-4.5	W	1.5	143.5	OVER	14.5
1/21/2023	at Air Force	W, 70-60	-8	W	2	131.5	UNDER	-1.5
1/25/2023	Utah State	W, 85-75	-7	W	3	144.5	OVER	15.5
1/28/2023	San José St	W, 72-51	-13.5	W	7.5	134.5	UNDER	-11.5
1/31/2023	at Nevada	L, 66-75	-3.5	L	-12.5	138	OVER	3
2/3/2023	Boise State	W, 72-52	-5.5	W	14.5	133	UNDER	-9
2/8/2023	at Utah State	W, 63-61	1.5	W	3.5	145	UNDER	-21
2/11/2023	UNLV	W, 82-71	-9	W	2	139.5	OVER	13.5
2/15/2023	at Fresno State	W, 45-43	-8	L	-6	128	UNDER	-40
2/21/2023	Colorado State	W, 77-58	-10	W	9	141.5	UNDER	-6.5
2/25/2023	at New Mexico	W, 73-71	-2.5	L	-0.5	147.5	UNDER	-3.5
2/28/2023	at Boise State	L, 60-66	2	L	-4	134	UNDER	-8
3/4/2023	Wyoming	W, 67-50	-15	W	2	135	UNDER	-18
3/9/2023	vs. Colorado State	W, 64-61	-8.5	L	-5.5	137	UNDER	-12
3/10/2023	vs. San José St	W, 64-49	-8.5	W	6.5	127.5	UNDER	-14.5
3/11/2023	vs. Utah State	W, 62-57	-1.5	W	3.5	138	UNDER	-19
3/16/2023	vs. Charleston	W, 63-57	-5	W	1	141.5	UNDER	-21.5
3/18/2023	vs. Furman	W, 75-52	-6	W	17	137	UNDER	-10

Head to Head

San Diego State is 1-0-0 against the spread when it plays against Furman in recorded games since 2023. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
3/18/2023	vs. Furman	W, 75-52	-6	W	17	137	UNDER	-10

Furman ATS Performance

This Season

Furman is 19-14-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 19 of 33 Furman games (57.6%) this season.

Furman is 4-5-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 5 of Furman’s 9 games on neutral floors (55.6%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/11/2022	Belmont	W, 89-74	-9	W	6	145.5	OVER	17.5
11/17/2022	vs. Penn State	L, 68-73	2	L	-3	136	OVER	5
11/18/2022	vs. Old Dominion	L, 77-82	-8.5	L	-13.5	140	OVER	19
11/20/2022	vs. South Carolina	W, 79-60	-5	W	14	143	UNDER	-4
11/29/2022	at Appalachian State	W, 65-61	-7	L	-3	140	UNDER	-14
12/3/2022	South Carolina State	W, 88-76	-26	L	-14	150	OVER	14
12/6/2022	High Point	L, 82-85	-12	L	-15	152	OVER	15
12/10/2022	Winthrop	W, 82-67	-13.5	W	1.5	154.5	UNDER	-5.5
12/13/2022	at NC State	L, 73-92	6	L	-13	153.5	OVER	11.5
12/17/2022	vs. Stephen F. Austin	W, 72-70	-8	L	-6	152	UNDER	-10
12/29/2022	VMI	W, 85-62	-18	W	5	150.5	UNDER	-3.5
12/31/2022	at Western Carolina	L, 67-79	-11.5	L	-23.5	145.5	OVER	0.5
1/4/2023	The Citadel	W, 97-72	-14	W	11	149	OVER	20
1/7/2023	at East Tennessee State	W, 70-56	-6.5	W	7.5	144.5	UNDER	-18.5
1/11/2023	at Mercer	W, 84-66	-4.5	W	13.5	143.5	OVER	6.5
1/14/2023	UNC Greensboro	L, 80-88	-6	L	-14	138.5	OVER	29.5
1/18/2023	at Chattanooga	W, 77-69	1	W	9	155.5	UNDER	-9.5
1/22/2023	at Wofford	W, 96-82	-4.5	W	9.5	147.5	OVER	30.5
1/25/2023	Samford	W, 91-84	-6.5	W	0.5	150	OVER	25
1/29/2023	at UNC Greensboro	W, 69-57	-1.5	W	10.5	139	UNDER	-13
2/1/2023	Chattanooga	W, 79-58	-10.5	W	10.5	151.5	UNDER	-14.5
2/4/2023	Wofford	W, 80-67	-10.5	W	2.5	151	UNDER	-4
2/8/2023	at VMI	W, 94-63	-16	W	15	146.5	OVER	10.5
2/11/2023	Western Carolina	W, 93-59	-14.5	W	19.5	150.5	OVER	1.5
2/15/2023	at The Citadel	L, 65-69	-15	L	-19	151	UNDER	-17
2/19/2023	East Tennessee State	W, 83-79	-14.5	L	-10.5	144.5	OVER	17.5
2/22/2023	Mercer	W, 70-67	-12.5	L	-9.5	141	UNDER	-4
2/25/2023	at Samford	W, 93-79	-1	W	13	152	OVER	20
3/4/2023	vs. Mercer	W, 73-58	-9.5	W	5.5	142	UNDER	-11
3/5/2023	vs. Western Carolina	W, 83-80	-11	L	-8	153.5	OVER	9.5
3/6/2023	vs. Chattanooga	W, 88-79	-8	W	1	158	OVER	9
3/16/2023	vs. Virginia	W, 68-67	5	W	6	132.5	OVER	2.5
3/18/2023	vs. San Diego State	L, 52-75	6	L	-17	137	UNDER	-10

Head to Head

Furman is 0-1-0 against the spread when it plays against San Diego State in recorded games since 2023. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
3/18/2023	vs. San Diego State	L, 52-75	6	L	-17	137	UNDER	-10

Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.

Mike Bothwell (03/07): Bothwell had 16 points (2-7 FG, 0-3 3Pt, 12-13 FT), four rebounds and one assist across 33 minutes during Monday's 88-79 win over Chattanooga.
Jalen Slawson (03/07): Slawson posted 20 points (8-12 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 2-4 FT), five rebounds, four assists, one block and one steal in 31 minutes during Monday's 88-79 victory over Chattanooga.
Aguek Arop (03/05): Arop contributed four points (2-7 FG), five rebounds, three blocks and one steal in 12 minutes during Saturday's 67-50 victory over Wyoming.
Adam Seiko (03/05): Seiko closed with 14 points (5-7 FG, 4-5 3Pt), one rebound, two assists and two steals over 21 minutes during Saturday's 67-50 win over Wyoming.
Nathan Mensah (02/16): Mensah contributed eight points (3-5 FG, 2-6 FT), eight rebounds, two assists and four blocks across 24 minutes during Wednesday's 45-43 win over Fresno State.
Matt Bradley (02/13): Bradley produced 17 points (6-8 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 2-2 FT), four rebounds, two assists, one block and one steal across 24 minutes during Saturday's 82-71 victory over UNLV.
Nathan Mensah (02/04): Mensah logged 17 points (4-4 FG, 9-12 FT), six rebounds and two blocks across 25 minutes during San Diego State's 72-52 win Friday versus Boise State.
Darrion Trammell (01/30): Trammell produced seven points (2-7 FG, 2-5 3Pt, 1-1 FT), three rebounds, two assists and one steal across 22 minutes during Saturday's 72-51 victory over San Jose State.
Nathan Mensah (01/30): Mensah chipped in eight points (3-5 FG, 2-2 FT) and eight rebounds in 17 minutes during Saturday's 72-51 win over San Jose State.
Alex Williams (01/25): Williams will make his first career start Wednesday night, per Furman sports writer Scott Keeler.
Adam Seiko (01/24): Seiko (illness) will be active for Wednesday's matchup with Utah State, Jon Schaeffer of XTRA 1360 reports.
Adam Seiko (01/21): Seiko has been ruled out of Saturday's game against Air Force due to illness, Mark Zeigler of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Aguek Arop (01/19): Arop (groin) provided five points (2-3 FG, 1-1 FT) and three rebounds in 23 minutes during Wednesday's 82-76 OT win over Colorado State.
Micah Parrish (01/19): Parrish contributed 15 points (5-5 FG, 3-3 3Pt, 2-3 FT), five rebounds and three steals over 30 minutes during Wednesday's 82-76 OT victory over Colorado State.
Lamont Butler (01/19): Butler logged 19 points (7-14 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 3-4 FT), two rebounds, two assists and two steals across 34 minutes during the Aztecs' 82-76 win Wednesday at Colorado State.
Adam Seiko (01/16): Seiko finished with 13 points (4-6 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 2-2 FT), three rebounds, one assist and one steal in 21 minutes during Saturday's 76-67 loss to New Mexico.
Keshad Johnson (01/16): Johnson closed Saturday's 76-67 loss to New Mexico with 10 points (5-6 FG, 0-4 FT), seven rebounds, one assist and two steals over 28 minutes.
Aguek Arop (01/15): Arop has a groin injury, according to Jon Schaeffer of XTRA 1360.
Matt Bradley (01/11): Bradley closed with 17 points (5-14 FG, 2-6 3Pt, 5-7 FT), 10 rebounds, two assists and one block across 27 minutes during Tuesday's 74-65 victory over Nevada.
Keshad Johnson (12/21): Johnson ended Tuesday's 62-46 win over UC San Diego with nine points (3-9 FG, 0-2 3Pt, 3-4 FT), five rebounds, one block and one steal across 20 minutes.
Nathan Mensah (12/21): Mensah provided six points (2-7 FG, 1-1 3Pt, 1-2 FT), three rebounds, two blocks and one steal across 17 minutes during Tuesday's 62-46 win over UC San Diego.
Lamont Butler (12/21): Butler contributed five points (2-8 FG, 1-3 3Pt), three rebounds, three assists and one steal over 24 minutes during Tuesday's 62-46 win over UC San Diego.
Adam Seiko (12/21): Seiko logged six points (2-6 FG, 2-5 3Pt) and two rebounds across 17 minutes during Tuesday's 62-46 win over UC San Diego.
Jaedon LeDee (12/21): LeDee ended Tuesday's 62-46 win over UC San Diego with two points (1-7 FG), 12 rebounds, three assists and one steal across 23 minutes.
Adam Seiko (12/20): Seiko (Achilles) is available Tuesday versus UC San Diego, according to Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports.