Preview: Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Purdue

Game	Fairleigh Dickinson Knights vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Date:	March 17th, 2023 6:50 PM
TV:	TNT

Preview

Fairleigh Dickinson Offense vs. Purdue Defense

Fairleigh Dickinson checks in at 133rd nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Knights shoot 51.7 percent on twos and 34.3 percent on threes for a 51.6 effective field goal percentage.

Purdue is ranked 19th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Purdue opponents make 47.2 percent of their twos and 31.4 percent of their threes for a 47.2 effective field goal percentage.

Basics

Purdue’s defense has been struggling over the last month. The Boilermakers are ranked 51st in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 19th for the season.
The Knights’ rotation only has an average height of 73.4 inches according to KenPom.com, making them one of the shortest teams in the field.
Fairleigh Dickinson plays as fast as any team in the country. The Knights average 70 possessions per game. On the other side, Purdue prefers to control the game and does a good job of that. Boilermakers games only average 64 possessions per game
You can trust Fairleigh Dickinson at the line in a close game. The Knights shoot 75 percent at the line for the season.

Extra Possessions

Fairleigh Dickinson does a great job of valuing the basketball, turnovers on just 16.2 percent of possessions, and Purdue’s defense doesn’t prioritize forcing giveaways. The Boilermakers only force giveaways on 15.5 percent of opponent possessions, so expect a low turnover performance by Fairleigh Dickinson’s offense.
Fairleigh Dickinson does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Knights score 16.4 points points per game off of turnovers.
The Knights are fantastic on the offensive glass and rebound 32 percent of their missed shots. Purdue is one of the better defensive rebounding teams in the field, grabbing 76.4 percent of opponent misses, which should negate this advantage.
Second chance points are crucial to Fairleigh Dickinson’s offense. The Knights score 12.2 points off of second chances and only allow 10.2 points per game, outscoring teams by 2.0 points per game just on second chance opportunities. Purdue has also been great on the glass this year, outscoring opponents by 5.0 points per game on second chances.

Shot Profile

Purdue does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, PUR contests 62 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Fairleigh Dickinson’s offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 61 percent of the Knights’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
Fairleigh Dickinson’s offense can be somewhat one-dimensional because there’s only one player (Singleton) on the roster who shoots 38% or better from 3-point range on 50+ attempts.
Fairleigh Dickinson is a tough scout because its bigs can stretch the floor. The Knights have one big with at least 75 3-point attempts including Ansley Almonor.
Fairleigh Dickinson is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Knights shoot 59 percent at the rim and Purdue allows 57 percent shooting inside of five feet.
Purdue’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Boilermakers opponents attempt 32 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 38 percent clip. Fairleigh Dickinson’s offense shoots 40 percent on its mid-range attempts.

Style

Fairleigh Dickinson loves to push the ball in transition. An impressive 16.3 percent of FDU’s offensive plays are in transition and those transition plays create 13.4 points per game. Purdue’s defense does a great job of limiting transition opportunities and only allows 8.0 points per game in transition.
Fairleigh Dickinson’s offense is overweight on off-ball screens and cuts compared to the rest of the field and should test Purdue’s defensive discipline off the ball. The Knights average 10.6 points per game via cuts and off-ball screens, scoring 1.13 points per play on those actions. Purdue’s defense excels at defending off-ball sets, allowing just 0.89 points per play.

Purdue Offense vs. Fairleigh Dickinson Defense

The Boilermakers are ranked 9th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Purdue shoots 54.2 percent on twos and 33.1 percent on threes for a 52.4 effective field goal percentage.

Fairleigh Dickinson’s defense is ranked 357th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 55.8 percent on twos and 36.4 percent on threes for a 55.3 effective field goal percentage against the Knights.

Basics

Purdue’s offense enters the tournament on a cold streak. Over the last 30 days, the Boilermakers are ranked 30th in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to 9th for the year.
Fairleigh Dickinson’s defense has been shutting teams down over the last month and is ranked 196th in adjusted defensive efficiency over that span compared to 357th for the season.
The Boilermakers have a notable size advantage on the inside, their power forwards and centers rank in the 100th percentile in height compared to Fairleigh Dickinson’s bigs which rank in the 0th percentile.
Purdue plays at a deliberate pace. The Boilermakers average 64 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball. Fairleigh Dickinson prefers to play fast and averages 70 possessions per game meaning this should be a game of contrasting tempo.
Purdue does a great job attacking full-court pressure defenses, scoring 1.02 points per play. Fairleigh Dickinson’s applies full court pressure on 40.1 percent of possessions which should allow the Boilermakers to create an offensive advantage.
Purdue does a great job of getting to the free-throw line. The Boilermakers attempt 37 free throws per 100 field goal attempts. Purdue’s ability to get to the line will pose issues for Fairleigh Dickinson, which struggles to stay out of foul trouble and keep its opponents off the line. The Knights allow 35 free throws per 100 shot attempts.
Purdue makes 75 percent of its free throws which should come in handy in a close game.

Extra Possessions

Fairleigh Dickinson is one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers. The Knights force giveaways on 21.9 percent of their opponents’ offensive possessions. Purdue’s offense should be equipped to handle that pressure given that they grade out in the 71st percentile nationally in turnover rate.
Purdue is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Boilermakers grab 38.5 percent of their missed shots. Fairleigh Dickinson is average on the defensive glass, grabbing 71 percent of opponent misses, and that matchup on the boards will be a key swing stat on Friday.
Second chance points are crucial to Purdue’s offense. The Boilermakers score 12.8 points off of second chances and only allow 7.8 points per game, outscoring teams by 5.0 points per game just on second chance opportunities. Fairleigh Dickinson has also been great on the glass this year, outscoring opponents by 2.0 points per game on second chances.

Shot Profile

Fairleigh Dickinson allows its opponents to attempt 39 percent of their shots from 3-point range. The Knights doesn’t just give up a lot of the threes, they also go in. FDU opponents are shooting 37 percent from 3-point range. On the year, Purdue is shooting 32 percent from outside and attempts 38 percent of its shots from long distance.
Purdue dominates the paint. The Boilermakers score 32.9 points and allow 26.3 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 6.5 points per game. Fairleigh Dickinson has struggled inside this year and has been outscored by 2.6 points per game in the paint.
Purdue’s offense can be somewhat one-dimensional because there’s only one player (Smith) on the roster who shoots 38% or better from 3-point range on 50+ attempts.
Purdue is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Boilermakers shoot 59 percent at the rim and Fairleigh Dickinson allows 63 percent shooting inside of five feet.

Style

Purdue is one of the better passing teams in the country and 60.6 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season. That should provide a significant advantage for the Boilermakers because Fairleigh Dickinson’s defense allows a lot of assisted field goals. FDU opponents record assists on 56 percent of made baskets.
Purdue has one of the most dominant post-up offenses in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 21.2 points per game on 0.99 points per post-up play. Fairleigh Dickinson is just okay defending the post, allowing 0.85 points per post-up.

Bottom Line

According to Bart Torvik, Purdue is a 86-62 favorite with a 98 percent chance of advancing.

FDU Personnel

#2 Demetre Roberts

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 5'8" | Weight: 165 lbs

Distributor Go-To Guy Minutes Logger Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
16.5	3.1	4.2	110.0	24.8%	48.8%

#4 Grant Singleton

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'0" | Weight: 163 lbs

Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
14.2	3.5	3.3	123.9	19.5%	56.3%

#5 Ansley Almonor

Role: Stretch Big
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 219 lbs

Stretch Big Man Pick and Pop Roll Man Avoids Turnovers Cut and Finish Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
14.2	4.7	1.4	111.7	23.5%	53.7%

#11 Sean Moore

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 175 lbs

Pick Pocket

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
6.6	4.4	1	107.8	16.6%	50.8%

🔥🔥🔥: Moore is averaging 12.3 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 5.7 points above his season average.

#3 Heru Bligen

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 183 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Below 65% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
7.6	3.5	0.6	116.3	18.4%	55%

PUR Personnel

#15 Zach Edey

Role: Post Up Big
Height: 7'4" | Weight: 290 lbs

Finisher Mid-Range Specialist Rim Protector Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Defensive Rebounder Mega Usage Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
22.1	12.8	1.6	124.5	32.6%	60.2%

#2 Fletcher Loyer

Role: Movement Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 185 lbs

Off Screen Shooter Off the Dribble Shooter Poor Finisher Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
11.1	1.7	2.5	110.6	20.4%	45.5%

❄️❄️❄️: Loyer is averaging 3.7 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 7.5 points below his season average.

#3 Braden Smith

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'0" | Weight: 180 lbs

Distributor Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Gets to the Line Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
10	4.2	4.2	121.8	18.7%	54.7%

#5 Brandon Newman

Role: Movement Wing
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 200 lbs

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
6.2	3	1.1	103.4	19.9%	47.1%

🔥🔥🔥: Newman is averaging 11.7 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 5.5 points above his season average.

#0 Mason Gillis

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 230 lbs

Corner 3-Point Specialist Catch and Shoot Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
6.6	3.6	1.2	122.4	16.2%	59.1%

🔥🔥🔥: Gillis is averaging 9.7 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 3.1 points above his season average.

ATS

Purdue ATS Performance

This Season

Purdue is 15-19-1 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 14 of 35 Purdue games (40%) this season.

Purdue is 5-4-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 4 of Purdue’s 9 games on neutral floors (44.4%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/8/2022	Milwaukee	W, 84-53	-27	W	4	140.5	UNDER	-3.5
11/11/2022	Austin Peay	W, 63-44	-23	L	-4	144.5	UNDER	-37.5
11/15/2022	Marquette	W, 75-70	-9	L	-4	147	UNDER	-2
11/24/2022	vs. West Virginia	W, 80-68	-2	W	10	136.5	OVER	11.5
11/25/2022	vs. Gonzaga	W, 84-66	5.5	W	23.5	152.5	UNDER	-2.5
11/27/2022	vs. Duke	W, 75-56	0	W	19	133.5	UNDER	-2.5
11/30/2022	at Florida State	W, 79-69	-13.5	L	-3.5	141.5	OVER	6.5
12/4/2022	Minnesota	W, 89-70	-19	P	0	128.5	OVER	30.5
12/7/2022	Hofstra	W, 85-66	-18.5	W	0.5	146	OVER	5
12/10/2022	at Nebraska	W, 65-62	-9	L	-6	140	UNDER	-13
12/17/2022	vs. Davidson	W, 69-61	-16	L	-8	142.5	UNDER	-12.5
12/21/2022	New Orleans	W, 74-53	-32.5	L	-11.5	151.5	UNDER	-24.5
12/29/2022	Florida A&M	W, 82-49	-36	L	-3	131	UNDER	0
1/2/2023	Rutgers	L, 64-65	-7	L	-8	130.5	UNDER	-1.5
1/5/2023	at Ohio State	W, 71-69	1.5	W	3.5	141.5	UNDER	-1.5
1/8/2023	vs. Penn State	W, 76-63	-5	W	8	135.5	OVER	3.5
1/13/2023	Nebraska	W, 73-55	-14.5	W	3.5	130	UNDER	-2
1/16/2023	at Michigan State	W, 64-63	-3.5	L	-2.5	133	UNDER	-6
1/19/2023	at Minnesota	W, 61-39	-13.5	W	8.5	133	UNDER	-33
1/22/2023	Maryland	W, 58-55	-10.5	L	-7.5	133.5	UNDER	-20.5
1/26/2023	at Michigan	W, 75-70	-4.5	W	0.5	135.5	OVER	9.5
1/29/2023	Michigan State	W, 77-61	-8	W	8	130.5	OVER	7.5
2/1/2023	Penn State	W, 80-60	-10	W	10	135.5	OVER	4.5
2/4/2023	at Indiana	L, 74-79	-1.5	L	-6.5	141	OVER	12
2/9/2023	Iowa	W, 87-73	-7.5	W	6.5	151	OVER	9
2/12/2023	at Northwestern	L, 58-64	-4.5	L	-10.5	131	UNDER	-9
2/16/2023	at Maryland	L, 54-68	-2	L	-16	133	UNDER	-11
2/19/2023	Ohio State	W, 82-55	-11.5	W	15.5	139	UNDER	-2
2/25/2023	Indiana	L, 71-79	-7.5	L	-15.5	138.5	OVER	11.5
3/2/2023	at Wisconsin	W, 63-61	-4	L	-2	127	UNDER	-3
3/5/2023	Illinois	W, 76-71	-8	L	-3	139	OVER	8
3/10/2023	vs. Rutgers	W, 70-65	-5.5	L	-0.5	128	OVER	7
3/11/2023	vs. Ohio State	W, 80-66	-7	W	7	134.5	OVER	11.5
3/12/2023	vs. Penn State	W, 67-65	-6	L	-4	134.5	UNDER	-2.5
3/17/2023	vs. Fairleigh Dickinson	L, 58-63	-23	L	-28	145	UNDER	-24

Head to Head

Purdue is 0-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Fairleigh Dickinson in recorded games since 2023. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
3/17/2023	vs. Fairleigh Dickinson	L, 58-63	-23	L	-28	145	UNDER	-24

Fairleigh Dickinson ATS Performance

This Season

Fairleigh Dickinson is 17-13-1 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 18 of 31 Fairleigh Dickinson games (58.1%) this season.

Fairleigh Dickinson is 3-1-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 2 of Fairleigh Dickinson’s 4 games on neutral floors (50%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/7/2022	at Loyola (Chi)	L, 82-88	27	W	21	139.5	OVER	30.5
11/13/2022	Manhattan	W, 77-74	1.5	W	4.5	145	OVER	6
11/18/2022	vs. SIU-Edwardsville	L, 78-79	-5.5	L	-6.5	149	OVER	8
11/19/2022	at Longwood	L, 83-99	13	L	-3	146	OVER	36
11/20/2022	vs. VMI	W, 93-89	2.5	W	6.5	153.5	OVER	28.5
11/22/2022	at Pittsburgh	L, 61-83	15.5	L	-6.5	148.5	UNDER	-4.5
11/27/2022	at Saint Peter's	L, 63-77	9	L	-5	143	UNDER	-3
11/30/2022	at Hartford	L, 66-74	-5	L	-13	147.5	UNDER	-7.5
12/3/2022	at Saint Joseph's	W, 97-80	11.5	W	28.5	151.5	OVER	25.5
12/9/2022	at Columbia	W, 76-73	-1	W	2	152	UNDER	-3
12/11/2022	NJIT	W, 73-71	-4	L	-2	143	OVER	1
12/13/2022	at Richmond	L, 48-77	15.5	L	-13.5	143	UNDER	-18
12/29/2022	Merrimack	W, 71-63	-3.5	W	4.5	137.5	UNDER	-3.5
1/5/2023	at St. Francis (BKN)	W, 76-57	1	W	20	143.5	UNDER	-10.5
1/7/2023	Brooklyn	W, 101-89	-11.5	W	0.5	153.5	OVER	36.5
1/14/2023	at Central Connecticut	W, 88-80	2	W	10	144	OVER	24
1/20/2023	Sacred Heart	L, 85-92	-5.5	L	-12.5	154	OVER	23
1/26/2023	St. Francis (PA)	W, 87-82	-4	W	1	154.5	OVER	14.5
1/28/2023	at Merrimack	W, 78-71	1.5	W	8.5	133.5	OVER	15.5
2/4/2023	Wagner	L, 79-83	-2.5	L	-6.5	144	OVER	18
2/9/2023	at Brooklyn	W, 80-79	-9	L	-8	156	OVER	3
2/11/2023	Central Connecticut	L, 73-77	-5.5	L	-9.5	148	OVER	2
2/16/2023	at Sacred Heart	L, 86-94	2.5	L	-5.5	156	OVER	24
2/18/2023	at Wagner	W, 66-48	3	W	21	140.5	UNDER	-26.5
2/23/2023	at St. Francis (PA)	L, 72-82	-1	L	-11	156.5	UNDER	-2.5
2/25/2023	St. Francis (BKN)	W, 86-69	-8	W	9	143.5	OVER	11.5
3/1/2023	St. Francis (BKN)	W, 83-75	-8	P	0	143.5	OVER	14.5
3/4/2023	St. Francis (PA)	W, 70-50	-4.5	W	15.5	158	UNDER	-38
3/7/2023	at Merrimack	L, 66-67	4	W	3	138	UNDER	-5
3/15/2023	vs. Texas Southern	W, 84-61	2	W	25	146.5	UNDER	-1.5
3/17/2023	vs. Purdue	W, 63-58	23	W	28	145	UNDER	-24

Head to Head

Fairleigh Dickinson is 1-0-0 against the spread when it plays against Purdue in recorded games since 2023. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
3/17/2023	vs. Purdue	W, 63-58	23	W	28	145	UNDER	-24

Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.

Sean Moore (03/18): Moore posted 19 points (7-17 FG, 3-10 3Pt, 2-2 FT), five rebounds, two blocks and one steal over 28 minutes during Friday's 63-58 win over Purdue.
Zach Edey (03/18): Edey posted 21 points (7-11 FG, 7-10 FT), 15 rebounds, one assist and three blocks across 36 minutes during Friday's 63-58 loss to Fairleigh Dickinson.
Braden Smith (03/17): Smith is in the starting lineup for Friday's game versus FDU but is working through some pain on his right shooting hand, Gregg Doyel of IndyStarSports reports.
Zach Edey (03/13): Edey had 30 points (12-17 FG, 6-7 FT), 13 rebounds and one assist over 28 minutes during Sunday's 67-65 win over Penn State.
Braden Smith (03/06): Smith closed Sunday's 76-71 win over Illinois with 15 points (6-9 FG, 2-2 3Pt, 1-2 FT), one rebound, three assists and one steal across 31 minutes.
Brandon Newman (03/06): Newman registered 19 points (5-10 FG, 3-8 3Pt, 6-8 FT), six rebounds, five assists and three steals over 34 minutes during Sunday's 76-71 win over Illinois.
Zach Edey (03/06): Edey closed Sunday's 76-71 win over Illinois with 17 points (6-13 FG, 5-7 FT), six rebounds, two assists and one block in 27 minutes.
Caleb Furst (02/27): Furst finished with eight points (4-6 FG, 0-2 3Pt, 0-1 FT), two rebounds, one block and one steal across 17 minutes during Saturday's 79-71 loss to Indiana.
Zach Edey (02/26): Edey provided 26 points (8-17 FG, 10-14 FT), 16 rebounds, three assists and two blocks in 37 minutes during Saturday's 79-71 loss to Indiana.
Mason Gillis (02/25): Gillis is on the bench for Saturday's game against Indiana.
Caleb Furst (02/25): Furst is in the starting lineup for Saturday's game against Indiana.
Zach Edey (02/21): Edey accumulated 26 points (11-20 FG, 4-6 FT), 11 rebounds and three blocks across 25 minutes during Sunday's 82-55 win over Ohio State.
Mason Gillis (02/19): Gillis is part of the Boilermakers' starting lineup Sunday versus Ohio State, according to their Twitter account.
Caleb Furst (02/19): Furst is not part of the Boilermakers' starting lineup Sunday versus Ohio State, according to their Twitter account.
Zach Edey (02/14): Edey logged 24 points (7-10 FG, 10-13 FT), eight rebounds, two assists and three blocks over 35 minutes during Sunday's 64-58 loss to Northwestern.
Fletcher Loyer (02/14): Loyer finished with two points (1-6 FG, 0-2 3Pt), three rebounds and one assist in 27 minutes during Sunday's 64-58 loss to Northwestern.
Caleb Furst (02/10): Furst finished Thursday's 87-73 victory over Iowa with 11 points (5-5 FG, 1-1 3Pt, 0-1 FT) and 10 rebounds in 24 minutes.
Ethan Morton (02/10): Morton closed with five points (2-6 FG, 1-4 3Pt), three rebounds, four assists and two steals over 36 minutes during Thursday's 87-73 win over Iowa.
David Jenkins (02/06): Jenkins notched six points (2-3 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 0-1 FT), one rebound and one assist in 17 minutes during Saturday's 79-74 loss to Indiana.
Braden Smith (02/06): Smith finished Saturday's 79-74 loss to Indiana with four points (1-8 FG, 0-1 3Pt, 2-4 FT), two rebounds, six assists and three steals over 37 minutes.
Zach Edey (02/05): Edey posted 33 points (15-19 FG, 3-4 FT), 18 rebounds, two assists and three blocks across 32 minutes during Saturday's 79-74 loss to Indiana.
Mason Gillis (02/02): Gillis amassed 29 points (10-14 FG, 9-12 3Pt, 0-1 FT) and three rebounds in 25 minutes during Wednesday's 80-60 victory over Penn State.
Zach Edey (01/30): Edey finished with a career-high 38 points (15-24 FG, 8-12 FT) to go with 13 rebounds, three assists, three steals and one block across 32 minutes in Sunday's 77-61 win over Michigan State.
Zach Edey (01/23): Edey had 24 points (10-17 FG, 4-6 FT), 16 rebounds, one assist and two blocks across 33 minutes during Sunday's 58-55 victory over Maryland.
Zach Edey (01/17): Edey ended Monday's 64-63 win over Michigan State with 32 points (13-26 FG, 6-7 FT), 17 rebounds and two blocks over 37 minutes.