Preview: Duke vs. Tennessee

Game	Duke Blue Devils vs. Tennessee Volunteers
Date:	March 18th, 2023 2:54 PM
TV:	CBS

Preview

Duke Offense vs. Tennessee Defense

The Blue Devils are ranked 36th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Duke shoots 51.5 percent on twos and 33.6 percent on threes for a 51.1 effective field goal percentage.

Tennessee’s defense is ranked 1st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 44.6 percent on twos and 26.2 percent on threes for a 42.4 effective field goal percentage against the Volunteers.

Basics

Duke’s offense enters the tournament on a hot streak. Over the last 30 days, the Blue Devils are ranked 9th in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to 36th for the year.
According to KenPom, Duke is one of the “luckier” teams in the field, ranked 52nd nationally in luck, meaning that they’ve won more games than their adjusted efficiency margin stats would indicate.
The Blue Devils are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 79.3 inches according to KenPom.com.
The Blue Devils have a size advantage on the perimeter as their guards rank in the 89th percentile size wise compared to Tennessee’s guards which rank in the 13th percentile.
Duke plays at a deliberate pace. The Blue Devils average 66 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball. Tennessee also prefers to play alow and Volunteers games only average 66 possessions per game. Expect this to be a grinding low-possession game.
Duke does a great job attacking full-court pressure defenses, scoring 0.96 points per play. Tennessee’s applies full court pressure on 9.1 percent of possessions which should allow the Blue Devils to create an offensive advantage.
Tennessee can get into trouble given its tendency to commit fouls. The Volunteers send their opponents to the free-throw line 35 times per 100 shot attempts. That’s one of the worst rates in the country and Duke gets to the stripe 31 times per 100 field goal attempts.
Duke makes 77 percent of its free throws which should come in handy in a close game.

Extra Possessions

Tennessee is one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers. TENN forces giveaways on 22.2 percent of offensive possessions while Duke turns it over on 18.2 percent of its possessions this season.
Duke is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Blue Devils grab 36.2 percent of their missed shots. Tennessee is average on the defensive glass, grabbing 73.1 percent of opponent misses, and that matchup on the boards will be a key swing stat on Saturday.
Second chance points are crucial to Duke’s offense. The Blue Devils score 12.5 points off of second chances and only allow 8.5 points per game, outscoring teams by 3.9 points per game just on second chance opportunities. Tennessee has also been great on the glass this year, outscoring opponents by 5.6 points per game on second chances.

Shot Profile

Tennessee allows opponents to attempt 42 percent of their shots from 3-point range. The Volunteers have gotten a bit lucky so far this season as opponents only make 26 percent of their threes. On the year, Duke is shooting 33 from outside and attempts 35 percent of its shots from long distance.
Tennessee does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, TENN contests 60 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Duke excels at creating open jumpers. Only 44 percent of the Blue Devils’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
Duke dominates the paint. The Blue Devils score 33.4 points and allow 27.8 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 5.6 points per game. Tennessee has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 7.0 points per game in the paint.
Duke’s offense can be somewhat one-dimensional because there’s only one player (Whitehead) on the roster who shoots 38% or better from 3-point range on 50+ attempts.
Duke is a tough scout because its bigs can stretch the floor. The Blue Devils have one big with at least 75 3-point attempts including Kyle Filipowski.
Tennessee controls the area around the hoop, allowing 51 percent shooting inside of five-feet. Duke makes 57 percent of its interior shots which is about average in college basketball. .

Style

Duke is one of the better passing teams in the country and 56.7 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season.
Modern basketball is a ball screen game and Duke’s offense is no exception. The Blue Devils score 26.0 points per game out of ball screens and average 0.81 points per ball screen play. Tennessee’s defense excels at defending ball screens, allowing just 0.66 points per play which should set up a key strength-on-strength matchup.

Tennessee Offense vs. Duke Defense

The Volunteers are ranked 54th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Tennessee shoots 51 percent on twos and 32.9 percent on threes for a 50.3 effective field goal percentage.

Duke’s defense is ranked 15th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 46.7 percent on twos and 30.4 percent on threes for a 46.3 effective field goal percentage against the Blue Devils.

Basics

According to KenPom, Tennessee ranked 324th nationally in luck, meaning that their adjusted efficiency margin stats indicate they should have a better record and have come up short in close games.
Tennessee plays at a deliberate pace. The Volunteers average 66 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball. Duke also prefers to play alow and Blue Devils games only average 66 possessions per game. Expect this to be a grinding low-possession game.

Extra Possessions

The game should be fairly turnover neutral on this side of the ball. Tennessee turns it over on 18.1 percent of possessions and Duke forces giveaways on 16.6 percent of possessions.
Tennessee does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Volunteers score 17.5 points points per game off of turnovers. Duke avoids turnovers for touchdowns, allowing only 12.1 points per game off of giveaways.
Tennessee is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Volunteers grab 36.8 percent of their missed shots. Duke matches up well with Tennessee’s offensive rebounding prowess. The Blue Devils rebound 74.1 percent of their opponents’ misses this season.
Second chance points are crucial to Tennessee’s offense. The Volunteers score 13.5 points off of second chances and only allow 7.9 points per game, outscoring teams by 5.6 points per game just on second chance opportunities. Duke has also been great on the glass this year, outscoring opponents by 3.9 points per game on second chances.

Shot Profile

Tennessee’s offensive attack is perimeter-oriented. The Volunteers attempt 40 percent of their shots from 3-point range. Despite shooting a lot of threes, Tennessee isn’t particularly accurate, shooting 32 percent from long distance.
Tennessee dominates the paint. The Volunteers score 30.3 points and allow 23.3 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 7.0 points per game. Duke has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 5.6 points per game in the paint.
Tennessee’s offense doesn’t have a single player shooting 38% or better from 3-point range with over 50 attempts.
Duke’s defense excels around the bucket, allowing 53 percent shooting within five-feet of the rim. Tennessee is generally a great finishing team, making 60 percent of its shots at the bucket — setting up a key battle inside.
Duke’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Blue Devils opponents attempt 26 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 36 percent clip. Tennessee’s offense shoots 35 percent on its mid-range attempts.

Style

Tennessee is one of the better passing teams in the country and 66.2 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season.
Tennessee’s offense incorporates more off-ball actions and screens than the average Division I team. The Volunteers score 17.6 points per game off of off-ball actions at 1.06 points per play. Duke’s defense excels at defending off-ball sets, allowing just 0.80 points per play.
Tennessee has one of the most dominant post-up offenses in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 12.5 points per game on 0.94 points per post-up play. That should be a mismatch against a Duke team that allows 1.03 points per post-up play.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik projects a 63-60 Tennessee win over Duke and gives the Volunteers a 65 percent chance at picking up the victory.

DUKE Personnel

#30 Kyle Filipowski

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'11" | Weight: 220 lbs

Stretch Big Man Pick and Pop Roll Man Pick Pocket Offensive Rebounder Defensive Rebounder Mega Usage Gets to the Line Cut and Finish

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
15.4	9	1.6	106.0	29.1%	48.9%

#3 Jeremy Roach

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 172 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Takes Tough Shots

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
13.3	2.5	3.2	104.6	22.9%	48.3%

#5 Tyrese Proctor

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 178 lbs

Distributor Takes Tough Shots Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
9.3	3.2	3.2	106.2	18.8%	46.2%

#25 Mark Mitchell

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 215 lbs

Gets to the Line

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
9.1	4.4	1.2	110.8	17.5%	51.5%

#15 Ryan Young

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'10" | Weight: 240 lbs

Finisher Turnover Prone Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Defensive Rebounder Gets to the Line Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
6.6	5.8	1.4	129.3	18.3%	68%

TENN Personnel

#25 Santiago Vescovi

Role: Movement Wing
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 192 lbs

Glue Guy Off Screen Shooter Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
12.9	4.6	3	114.3	19.2%	53.5%

🔥🔥🔥: Vescovi is averaging 17.7 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 4.7 points above his season average.

#13 Olivier Nkamhoua

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 236 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Cut and Finish

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
10.6	5	2	108.4	21.7%	54%

#5 Zakai Zeigler

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 5'9" | Weight: 171 lbs

Distributor Pick Pocket Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
10.7	2.7	5.4	107.2	22.9%	46.6%

#2 Julian Phillips

Role: Movement Wing
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 198 lbs

Gets to the Line Inefficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
9	5	1.5	112.8	19.7%	44.8%

#4 Tyreke Key

Role: Movement Wing
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 211 lbs

Off Screen Shooter Poor Finisher Avoids Turnovers

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
8.4	2.6	1.4	104.9	18.6%	45.3%

ATS

Tennessee ATS Performance

This Season

Tennessee is 19-15-1 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 14 of 35 Tennessee games (40%) this season.

Tennessee is 5-4-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 3 of Tennessee’s 9 games on neutral floors (33.3%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/7/2022	Tennessee Tech	W, 75-43	-32	P	0	142.5	UNDER	-24.5
11/13/2022	vs. Colorado	L, 66-78	-13	L	-25	137.5	OVER	6.5
11/16/2022	Florida Gulf Coast	W, 81-50	-22	W	9	145	UNDER	-14
11/23/2022	vs. Butler	W, 71-45	-9.5	W	16.5	138	UNDER	-22
11/24/2022	vs. USC	W, 73-66	-8.5	L	-1.5	138.5	OVER	0.5
11/25/2022	vs. Kansas	W, 64-50	-2	W	12	135	UNDER	-21
11/30/2022	McNeese	W, 76-40	-35	W	1	131.5	UNDER	-15.5
12/4/2022	Alcorn State	W, 94-40	-28	W	26	127.5	OVER	6.5
12/7/2022	Eastern Kentucky	W, 84-49	-28	W	7	139	UNDER	-6
12/11/2022	vs. Maryland	W, 56-53	5	W	8	132.5	UNDER	-23.5
12/17/2022	at Arizona	L, 70-75	3	L	-2	148.5	UNDER	-3.5
12/21/2022	Austin Peay	W, 86-44	-28	W	14	124.5	OVER	5.5
12/28/2022	at Ole Miss	W, 63-59	-8.5	L	-4.5	126.5	UNDER	-4.5
1/3/2023	Mississippi State	W, 87-53	-11	W	23	121	OVER	19
1/7/2023	at South Carolina	W, 85-42	-17.5	W	25.5	126.5	OVER	0.5
1/10/2023	Vanderbilt	W, 77-68	-19	L	-10	130.5	OVER	14.5
1/14/2023	Kentucky	L, 56-63	-13.5	L	-20.5	134.5	UNDER	-15.5
1/17/2023	at Mississippi State	W, 70-59	-6.5	W	4.5	123	OVER	6
1/21/2023	at LSU	W, 77-56	-11	W	10	131.5	OVER	1.5
1/25/2023	Georgia	W, 70-41	-16.5	W	12.5	135	UNDER	-24
1/28/2023	Texas	W, 82-71	-5.5	W	5.5	134.5	OVER	18.5
2/1/2023	at Florida	L, 54-67	-5.5	L	-18.5	132.5	UNDER	-11.5
2/4/2023	Auburn	W, 46-43	-9	L	-6	132.5	UNDER	-43.5
2/8/2023	at Vanderbilt	L, 65-66	-9.5	L	-10.5	134.5	UNDER	-3.5
2/11/2023	Missouri	L, 85-86	-11.5	L	-12.5	141.5	OVER	29.5
2/15/2023	Alabama	W, 68-59	-3	W	6	144.5	UNDER	-17.5
2/18/2023	at Kentucky	L, 54-66	-4	L	-16	133	UNDER	-13
2/21/2023	at Texas A&M	L, 63-68	-1.5	L	-6.5	131.5	UNDER	-0.5
2/25/2023	South Carolina	W, 85-45	-21.5	W	18.5	129.5	OVER	0.5
2/28/2023	Arkansas	W, 75-57	-6.5	W	11.5	134	UNDER	-2
3/4/2023	at Auburn	L, 70-79	1.5	L	-7.5	131	OVER	18
3/9/2023	vs. Ole Miss	W, 70-55	-11	W	4	128.5	UNDER	-3.5
3/10/2023	vs. Missouri	L, 71-79	-6	L	-14	141.5	OVER	8.5
3/16/2023	vs. Louisiana	W, 58-55	-10.5	L	-7.5	136.5	UNDER	-23.5
3/18/2023	vs. Duke	W, 65-52	2.5	W	15.5	129	UNDER	-12

Head to Head

Tennessee is 1-0-0 against the spread when it plays against Duke in recorded games since 2023. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
3/18/2023	vs. Duke	W, 65-52	2.5	W	15.5	129	UNDER	-12

Duke ATS Performance

This Season

Duke is 16-19-1 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 14 of 36 Duke games (38.9%) this season.

Duke is 6-4-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 2 of Duke’s 10 games on neutral floors (20%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/7/2022	Jacksonville	W, 71-44	-18.5	W	8.5	140.5	UNDER	-25.5
11/11/2022	South Carolina Upstate	W, 84-38	-28	W	18	149	UNDER	-27
11/15/2022	vs. Kansas	L, 64-69	1.5	L	-3.5	144.5	UNDER	-11.5
11/18/2022	Delaware	W, 92-58	-22	W	12	143	OVER	7
11/21/2022	Bellarmine	W, 74-57	-22	L	-5	139.5	UNDER	-8.5
11/24/2022	vs. Oregon State	W, 54-51	-19.5	L	-16.5	141.5	UNDER	-36.5
11/25/2022	vs. Xavier	W, 71-64	-3.5	W	3.5	146.5	UNDER	-11.5
11/27/2022	vs. Purdue	L, 56-75	0	L	-19	133.5	UNDER	-2.5
11/30/2022	Ohio State	W, 81-72	-4.5	W	4.5	136.5	OVER	16.5
12/3/2022	Boston College	W, 75-59	-17	L	-1	129	OVER	5
12/6/2022	vs. Iowa	W, 74-62	-2	W	10	145.5	UNDER	-9.5
12/10/2022	Maryland-Eastern Shore	W, 82-55	-29	L	-2	130	OVER	7
12/20/2022	at Wake Forest	L, 70-81	-7	L	-18	141	OVER	10
12/31/2022	Florida State	W, 86-67	-17.5	W	1.5	143.5	OVER	9.5
1/4/2023	at NC State	L, 60-84	-3.5	L	-27.5	144.5	UNDER	-0.5
1/7/2023	at Boston College	W, 65-64	-9	L	-8	132.5	UNDER	-3.5
1/11/2023	Pittsburgh	W, 77-69	-8	P	0	139	OVER	7
1/14/2023	at Clemson	L, 64-72	2	L	-6	141.5	UNDER	-5.5
1/21/2023	Miami	W, 68-66	-5.5	L	-3.5	148	UNDER	-14
1/23/2023	at Virginia Tech	L, 75-78	1	L	-2	138	OVER	15
1/28/2023	at Georgia Tech	W, 86-43	-8.5	W	34.5	138	UNDER	-9
1/31/2023	Wake Forest	W, 75-73	-9	L	-7	146.5	OVER	1.5
2/4/2023	North Carolina	W, 63-57	-3	W	3	145	UNDER	-25
2/6/2023	at Miami	L, 59-81	4	L	-18	146	UNDER	-6
2/11/2023	at Virginia	L, 62-69	6	L	-1	126	OVER	5
2/14/2023	Notre Dame	W, 68-64	-12.5	L	-8.5	141	UNDER	-9
2/18/2023	at Syracuse	W, 77-55	-1	W	21	138	UNDER	-6
2/20/2023	Louisville	W, 79-62	-19	L	-2	137.5	OVER	3.5
2/25/2023	Virginia Tech	W, 81-65	-7	W	9	141.5	OVER	4.5
2/28/2023	NC State	W, 71-67	-7.5	L	-3.5	145	UNDER	-7
3/4/2023	at North Carolina	W, 62-57	3	W	8	142.5	UNDER	-23.5
3/9/2023	vs. Pittsburgh	W, 96-69	-4.5	W	22.5	141.5	OVER	23.5
3/10/2023	vs. Miami	W, 85-78	-3	W	4	145	OVER	18
3/11/2023	vs. Virginia	W, 59-49	-2	W	8	123	UNDER	-15
3/16/2023	vs. Oral Roberts	W, 74-51	-6.5	W	16.5	145.5	UNDER	-20.5
3/18/2023	vs. Tennessee	L, 52-65	-2.5	L	-15.5	129	UNDER	-12

Head to Head

Duke is 0-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Tennessee in recorded games since 2023. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
3/18/2023	vs. Tennessee	L, 52-65	-2.5	L	-15.5	129	UNDER	-12

Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.

Dariq Whitehead (03/19): Whitehead chipped in eight points (3-6 FG, 2-5 3Pt, 0-2 FT), two rebounds and two blocks in 33 minutes during Saturday's 65-52 loss to Tennessee.
Tyrese Proctor (03/18): Proctor posted 16 points (6-13 FG, 1-5 3Pt, 3-3 FT), two rebounds, six assists and two steals across 37 minutes during Saturday's 65-52 loss to Tennessee.
Kyle Filipowski (03/18): Filipowski logged 13 points (6-16 FG, 0-5 3Pt, 1-2 FT), eight rebounds, one assist and one steal over 38 minutes during Saturday's 65-52 loss to Tennessee.
Mark Mitchell (03/18): Mitchell (knee) was not taking part in warmups with the team ahead of the second half and it appears he will not play in Saturday's Round of 32 game against Tennessee, Brendan Marks of The Athletic reports.
Dariq Whitehead (03/18): Whitehead is in the starting lineup for Saturday's Roun of 32 game against Tennessee.
Dereck Lively (03/17): Lively finished Thursday's 74-51 win over Oral Roberts with four points (2-3 FG), 12 rebounds, one assist and six blocks across 29 minutes.
Jeremy Roach (03/17): Roach amassed 23 points (9-17 FG, 1-5 3Pt, 4-4 FT), two rebounds, three assists and one steal over 37 minutes during Thursday's 74-51 win over Oral Roberts.
Jonas Aidoo (03/16): Aidoo is not in the starting lineup for Thursday's first-round matchup against Louisiana-Lafayette.
Uros Plavsic (03/16): Plavsic is in the starting lineup for Thursday's first-round matchup against Louisiana-Lafayette.
Jeremy Roach (03/12): Roach registered 23 points (7-12 FG, 2-2 3Pt, 7-7 FT), four rebounds and one assist in 39 minutes during Saturday's 59-49 victory over Virginia.
Kyle Filipowski (03/12): Filipowski ended Saturday's 59-49 victory over Virginia with 20 points (8-17 FG, 1-5 3Pt, 3-5 FT), 10 rebounds, one assist and three steals in 35 minutes.
Mark Mitchell (03/11): Mitchell totaled 14 points (4-9 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 5-8 FT), five rebounds and one steal in 34 minutes during Friday's 85-78 win over Miami (FL).
Kyle Filipowski (03/10): Filipowski posted 22 points (8-10 FG, 4-6 3Pt, 2-2 FT), one assist and one steal over 15 minutes during Thursday's 96-69 win over Pittsburgh.
Tyrese Proctor (03/10): Proctor ended with 11 points (4-6 FG, 3-5 3Pt), three rebounds, 10 assists and two steals across 26 minutes during Thursday's 96-69 victory over Pittsburgh.
Kyle Filipowski (03/06): Filipowski logged 22 points (7-17 FG, 1-4 3Pt, 7-8 FT), 13 rebounds, one assist, one block and one steal in 34 minutes during Saturday's 62-57 win over North Carolina.
Tyreke Key (03/05): Key (ankle) recorded 13 points (4-9 FG, 1-1 3Pt, 4-4 FT), one rebound and one assist over 23 minutes during Saturday's 79-70 loss to Auburn.
Josiah-Jordan James (03/05): James finished Saturday's 79-70 loss to Auburn with 10 points (4-12 FG, 2-6 3Pt), one rebound, two assists and two steals in 26 minutes.
Josiah-Jordan James (03/04): James is in the starting five for Saturday's game versus Auburn.
Zakai Zeigler (03/01): Zeigler suffered a torn ACL in Tuesday's game versus Arkansas and is out for the rest of the season.
Julian Phillips (03/01): Phillips (hip) had seven points (1-3 FG, 0-2 3Pt, 5-7 FT), five rebounds and three assists in 26 minutes during Tuesday's 7-57 win over Arkansas.
Tyreke Key (03/01): Key (ankle) is expected to play Saturday at Auburn, Wes Rucker of 247Sports.com reports.
Zakai Zeigler (02/28): Zeigler (knee) won't return to Tuesday's game versus Arkansas, Jeff Borzello of ESPN.com reports.
Julian Phillips (02/28): Phillips (hip) is not in the starting lineup Tuesday against Arkansas.
Tyreke Key (02/28): Key (ankle) will not play in Tuesday's matchup with Arkansas, Grant Ramey of On 3 Sports reports.
Jeremy Roach (02/27): Roach chipped in 19 points (8-13 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 1-2 FT), five rebounds and 11 assists across 34 minutes during Saturday's 81-65 victory over Virginia Tech.