Preview: Auburn vs. Houston

Game	Auburn Tigers vs. Houston Cougars
Date:	March 18th, 2023 7:10 PM
TV:	TBS

Preview

Auburn Offense vs. Houston Defense

The Tigers are ranked 34th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Auburn shoots 51 percent on twos and 31.4 percent on threes for a 49.6 effective field goal percentage.

Houston’s defense is ranked 5th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 42.8 percent on twos and 27.5 percent on threes for a 42.1 effective field goal percentage against the Cougars.

Basics

The Tigers have a notable size advantage on the inside, their power forwards and centers rank in the 85th percentile in height compared to Houston’s bigs which rank in the 32nd percentile.
Auburn does a great job of getting to the free-throw line. The Tigers attempt 35 free throws per 100 field goal attempts. Auburn’s ability to get to the line will pose issues for Houston, which struggles to stay out of foul trouble and keep its opponents off the line. The Cougars allow 36 free throws per 100 shot attempts.

Extra Possessions

Houston is one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers. HOU forces giveaways on 22.2 percent of offensive possessions while Auburn turns it over on 18.1 percent of its possessions this season.
Auburn is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Tigers grab 33.3 percent of their missed shots. Houston is average on the defensive glass, grabbing 72.7 percent of opponent misses, and that matchup on the boards will be a key swing stat on Saturday.

Shot Profile

Houston allows opponents to attempt 44 percent of their shots from 3-point range. The Cougars have gotten a bit lucky so far this season as opponents only make 28 percent of their threes. On the year, Auburn is shooting 31 from outside and attempts 36 percent of its shots from long distance.
Auburn’s offense doesn’t have a single player shooting 38% or better from 3-point range with over 50 attempts.
Houston’s defense excels around the bucket, allowing 51 percent shooting within five-feet of the rim. Auburn is generally a great finishing team, making 58 percent of its shots at the bucket — setting up a key battle inside.

Style

Auburn loves to push the ball in transition. An impressive 18.1 percent of AUB’s offensive plays are in transition and those transition plays create 14.5 points per game. Houston’s defense does a great job of limiting transition opportunities and only allows 9.3 points per game in transition.
Auburn is one of the better passing teams in the country and 55 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season.
Auburn’s offense incorporates more off-ball actions and screens than the average Division I team. The Tigers score 9.8 points per game off of off-ball actions at 1.11 points per play. Houston’s defense excels at defending off-ball sets, allowing just 0.84 points per play.

Houston Offense vs. Auburn Defense

Houston checks in at 10th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Cougars shoot 53.8 percent on twos and 34.8 percent on threes for a 53.2 effective field goal percentage.

Auburn is ranked 27th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Auburn opponents make 46.9 percent of their twos and 28.8 percent of their threes for a 45.6 effective field goal percentage.

Basics

Houston’s offense has been struggling over the last month. The Cougars are ranked 55th in adjusted offensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 10th for the season.
Auburn’s defense has been struggling over the last month. The Tigers are ranked 126th in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 27th for the season.
Houston plays at a deliberate pace. The Cougars average 65 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball.
Auburn can get into trouble given its tendency to commit fouls. The Tigers send their opponents to the free-throw line 39 times per 100 shot attempts. That’s one of the worst rates in the country and Houston gets to the stripe 28 times per 100 field goal attempts.

Extra Possessions

Houston does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Cougars score 17.2 points points per game off of turnovers.
The Cougars are fantastic on the offensive glass and rebound 36.7 percent of their missed shots. On the other side, Auburn really struggles on the defensive glass, rebounding 68 percent of opponent misses, which should create a major advantage for Houston on the glass.
Second chance points are crucial to Houston’s offense. The Cougars score 14.4 points off of second chances and only allow 8.7 points per game, outscoring teams by 5.6 points per game just on second chance opportunities. Auburn has struggled on the glass and has been outscored by 0.5 points per game in the paint.

Shot Profile

Houston dominates the paint. The Cougars score 33.3 points and allow 22.6 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 10.8 points per game. Auburn has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 3.5 points per game in the paint.
Houston’s offense can be somewhat one-dimensional because there’s only one player (Sasser) on the roster who shoots 38% or better from 3-point range on 50+ attempts.
Auburn is one of the best teams in the country at defending around the basket. Tigers opponents are shooting just 52 percent at the rim. Houston is usually very good at creating quality looks around the basket — finishing 65 percent of its shots withing five-feet — which sets up an interesting battle inside.
Houston’s offense is heavy on mid-range jumpers. The Cougars attempt 27 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 40 percent clip.

Style

Houston trusts its players to create in one-on-one situations and scores 7.9 points per game out of iso actions at 0.88 points per play. Auburn’s defense excels at defending one-on-one, allowing just 0.66 points per isolation play.

Bottom Line

According to Bart Torvik, Houston is a 68-62 favorite with a 75 percent chance of advancing.

AUB Personnel

#1 Wendell Green

Role: Domineering Ball Handler
Height: 5'11" | Weight: 175 lbs

Distributor Pick Pocket Poor Finisher Takes Tough Shots Mega Usage Gets to the Line Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
13.8	3.3	4.2	102.1	28.6%	42.4%

#4 Johni Broome

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'10" | Weight: 235 lbs

Finisher Rim Protector Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Defensive Rebounder Go-To Guy Avoids Turnovers Cut and Finish Below 65% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
14	8.4	1.4	108.6	26.8%	54%

#2 Jaylin Williams

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 230 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Avoids Turnovers Cut and Finish Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
11.1	4.8	2.3	116.5	18.9%	53.9%

#22 Allen Flanigan

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 220 lbs

Catch and Shoot

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
10.1	4.7	1.4	103.0	19.4%	52%

🔥🔥🔥: Flanigan is averaging 16 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 5.9 points above his season average.

#0 K.D. Johnson

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'0" | Weight: 185 lbs

Pick Pocket Poor Finisher Gets to the Line

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
8.8	1.9	1.3	97.5	22.3%	45.7%

🔥🔥🔥: Johnson is averaging 14.7 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 5.8 points above his season average.

HOU Personnel

#0 Marcus Sasser

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 195 lbs

Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Go-To Guy Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
17.1	2.8	3.2	123.6	25.3%	54.8%

#25 Jarace Walker

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 240 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Avoids Turnovers Below 65% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
11	6.7	1.8	112.3	22.4%	52.9%

#13 J'wan Roberts

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 230 lbs

Finisher Rim Protector Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Defensive Rebounder Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
10.3	7.4	1	129.2	18.5%	63.2%

❄️❄️❄️: Roberts is averaging 5.7 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 4.6 points below his season average.

#1 Jamal Shead

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 195 lbs

Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Pick Pocket Takes Tough Shots

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
10.2	3.1	5.5	112.7	20.0%	49.2%

🔥🔥🔥: Shead is averaging 14.7 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 4.5 points above his season average.

#12 Tramon Mark

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 195 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Poor Finisher Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
9.7	4.6	1.9	110.5	18.9%	45.9%

ATS

Houston ATS Performance

This Season

Houston is 19-17-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 17 of 36 Houston games (47.2%) this season.

Houston is 3-4-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 3 of Houston’s 7 games on neutral floors (42.9%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/7/2022	Northern Colorado	W, 83-36	-23.5	W	23.5	144	UNDER	-25
11/11/2022	vs. Saint Joseph's	W, 81-55	-22	W	4	133.5	OVER	2.5
11/14/2022	Oral Roberts	W, 83-45	-19.5	W	18.5	146.5	UNDER	-18.5
11/16/2022	Texas Southern	W, 83-48	-26.5	W	8.5	134	UNDER	-3
11/20/2022	at Oregon	W, 66-56	-6.5	W	3.5	133	UNDER	-11
11/26/2022	Kent State	W, 49-44	-18	L	-13	135	UNDER	-42
11/29/2022	Norfolk State	W, 100-52	-25	W	23	127	OVER	25
12/3/2022	vs. Saint Mary's	W, 53-48	-7.5	L	-2.5	115	UNDER	-14
12/6/2022	North Florida	W, 76-42	-29	W	5	134.5	UNDER	-16.5
12/10/2022	Alabama	L, 65-71	-9	L	-15	129.5	OVER	6.5
12/13/2022	North Carolina A&T	W, 74-46	-28.5	L	-0.5	130	UNDER	-10
12/17/2022	at Virginia	W, 69-61	-1.5	W	6.5	114	OVER	16
12/21/2022	McNeese	W, 83-44	-36	W	3	128	UNDER	-1
12/28/2022	at Tulsa	W, 89-50	-20.5	W	18.5	132	OVER	7
12/31/2022	UCF	W, 71-65	-15.5	L	-9.5	120	OVER	16
1/5/2023	SMU	W, 87-53	-21	W	13	130	OVER	10
1/8/2023	at Cincinnati	W, 72-59	-9.5	W	3.5	136	UNDER	-5
1/11/2023	South Florida	W, 83-77	-24	L	-18	126.5	OVER	33.5
1/17/2023	at Tulane	W, 80-60	-10	W	10	149	UNDER	-9
1/22/2023	Temple	L, 55-56	-20.5	L	-21.5	130.5	UNDER	-19.5
1/25/2023	at UCF	W, 82-71	-9.5	W	1.5	127.5	OVER	25.5
1/28/2023	Cincinnati	W, 75-69	-14	L	-8	132.5	OVER	11.5
2/2/2023	at Wichita State	W, 70-61	-12.5	L	-3.5	130.5	OVER	0.5
2/5/2023	at Temple	W, 81-65	-10.5	W	5.5	131.5	OVER	14.5
2/8/2023	Tulsa	W, 80-42	-26.5	W	11.5	138.5	UNDER	-16.5
2/16/2023	at SMU	W, 80-65	-15.5	L	-0.5	135	OVER	10
2/19/2023	Memphis	W, 72-64	-14.5	L	-6.5	142.5	UNDER	-6.5
2/22/2023	Tulane	W, 89-59	-14.5	W	15.5	143.5	OVER	4.5
2/25/2023	at East Carolina	W, 76-57	-21	L	-2	134.5	UNDER	-1.5
3/2/2023	Wichita State	W, 83-66	-17.5	L	-0.5	131.5	OVER	17.5
3/5/2023	at Memphis	W, 67-65	-5.5	L	-3.5	146	UNDER	-14
3/10/2023	vs. East Carolina	W, 60-46	-22.5	L	-8.5	133.5	UNDER	-27.5
3/11/2023	vs. Cincinnati	W, 69-48	-10	W	11	136	UNDER	-19
3/12/2023	vs. Memphis	L, 65-75	-6	L	-16	135	OVER	5
3/16/2023	vs. Northern Kentucky	W, 63-52	-19.5	L	-8.5	122	UNDER	-7
3/18/2023	vs. Auburn	W, 81-64	-5.5	W	11.5	131.5	OVER	13.5

Head to Head

Houston is 1-0-0 against the spread when it plays against Auburn in recorded games since 2023. The over has hit in 1 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (100%).

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
3/18/2023	vs. Auburn	W, 81-64	-5.5	W	11.5	131.5	OVER	13.5

Auburn ATS Performance

This Season

Auburn is 16-18-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 21 of 34 Auburn games (61.8%) this season.

Auburn is 2-4-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 5 of Auburn’s 6 games on neutral floors (83.3%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/7/2022	George Mason	W, 70-52	-13.5	W	4.5	140.5	UNDER	-18.5
11/11/2022	South Florida	W, 67-59	-20	L	-12	133.5	UNDER	-7.5
11/15/2022	Winthrop	W, 89-65	-18.5	W	5.5	146	OVER	8
11/18/2022	Texas Southern	W, 72-56	-24.5	L	-8.5	142	UNDER	-14
11/22/2022	vs. Bradley	W, 85-64	12	W	33	140	OVER	9
11/23/2022	vs. Northwestern	W, 43-42	-5.5	L	-4.5	135	UNDER	-50
11/27/2022	Saint Louis	W, 65-60	-6.5	L	-1.5	148	UNDER	-23
12/2/2022	Colgate	W, 93-66	-13	W	14	141	OVER	18
12/10/2022	vs. Memphis	L, 73-82	-2	L	-11	132	OVER	23
12/14/2022	Georgia State	W, 72-64	-20	L	-12	131	OVER	5
12/18/2022	at USC	L, 71-74	0	L	-3	138	OVER	7
12/21/2022	at Washington	W, 84-61	-4.5	W	18.5	138.5	OVER	6.5
12/28/2022	Florida	W, 61-58	-6	L	-3	141.5	UNDER	-22.5
1/4/2023	at Georgia	L, 64-76	-6.5	L	-18.5	134	OVER	6
1/7/2023	Arkansas	W, 72-59	-2	W	11	141	UNDER	-10
1/10/2023	at Ole Miss	W, 82-73	-3	W	6	130.5	OVER	24.5
1/14/2023	Mississippi State	W, 69-63	-8	L	-2	128	OVER	4
1/18/2023	at LSU	W, 67-49	-4.5	W	13.5	136.5	UNDER	-20.5
1/21/2023	at South Carolina	W, 81-66	-12.5	W	2.5	134.5	OVER	12.5
1/25/2023	Texas A&M	L, 63-79	-4.5	L	-20.5	137.5	OVER	4.5
1/28/2023	at West Virginia	L, 77-80	3.5	W	0.5	142.5	OVER	14.5
2/1/2023	Georgia	W, 94-73	-12	W	9	141.5	OVER	25.5
2/4/2023	at Tennessee	L, 43-46	9	W	6	132.5	UNDER	-43.5
2/7/2023	at Texas A&M	L, 78-83	3	L	-2	140	OVER	21
2/11/2023	Alabama	L, 69-77	2.5	L	-5.5	152.5	UNDER	-6.5
2/14/2023	Missouri	W, 89-56	-6	W	27	150.5	UNDER	-5.5
2/18/2023	at Vanderbilt	L, 65-67	-4	L	-6	143.5	UNDER	-11.5
2/22/2023	Ole Miss	W, 78-74	-12.5	L	-8.5	136	OVER	16
2/25/2023	at Kentucky	L, 54-86	4	L	-28	142.5	UNDER	-2.5
3/1/2023	at Alabama	L, 85-90	9.5	W	4.5	151.5	OVER	23.5
3/4/2023	Tennessee	W, 79-70	-1.5	W	7.5	131	OVER	18
3/9/2023	vs. Arkansas	L, 73-76	-1.5	L	-4.5	144	OVER	5
3/16/2023	vs. Iowa	W, 83-75	-1	W	7	152	OVER	6
3/18/2023	vs. Houston	L, 64-81	5.5	L	-11.5	131.5	OVER	13.5

Head to Head

Auburn is 0-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Houston in recorded games since 2023. The over has hit in 1 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (100%).

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
3/18/2023	vs. Houston	L, 64-81	5.5	L	-11.5	131.5	OVER	13.5

Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.

Marcus Sasser (03/19): Sasser accumulated 22 points (7-14 FG, 5-9 3Pt, 3-3 FT), one rebound, two assists and one steal over 31 minutes during Saturday's 81-64 win over Auburn.
Jamal Shead (03/19): Shead registered 10 points (2-8 FG, 0-4 3Pt, 6-7 FT), two rebounds, five assists, one block and one steal over 34 minutes during Saturday's 81-64 win over Auburn.
Marcus Sasser (03/18): Sasser (groin) will start Saturday's Round of 32 game against Auburn and is not expected to have any restrictions, Jeff Goodman of Stadium reports.
Jamal Shead (03/17): Shead said Friday he is 100 percent playing in Saturday's game versus Auburn, Mark Berman of Fox26 reports.
Marcus Sasser (03/17): Sasser (groin) said Friday that he's "100 percent playing" in Saturday's game against Auburn, Mark Berman of Fox 26 reports.
Jamal Shead (03/17): Head coach Kelvin Sampson said after Thursday's 63-52 win over Northern Kentucky that Shead suffered a hyperextended knee that he will play through in Saturday's second-round matchup against Auburn, Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle reports.
Marcus Sasser (03/17): Sasser (groin) did not end up playing in the second half of Thursday's 63-52 first-round win over Northern Kentucky after being listed as questionable to return.
Marcus Sasser (03/16): Sasser reaggravated his groin injury during the first half of Thursday's game against Northern Kentucky and is questionable to return, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
Terrance Arceneaux (03/16): Arceneaux will come off the bench for Thursday's first-round matchup against Northern Kentucky with Marcus Sasser returning to the lineup from a groin injury, the team's official Twitter page announced.
Marcus Sasser (03/16): Sasser (groin) is in the starting lineup for Thursday's first-round matchup against Northern Kentucky.
Marcus Sasser (03/15): Sasser (groin) is a game-time decision before Houston's game Thursday against Northern Kentucky, according to Mark Berman of FOX 26.
Terrance Arceneaux (03/13): Arceneaux amassed nine points (3-10 FG, 1-4 3Pt, 2-3 FT), three rebounds and one assist over 35 minutes during Sunday's 75-65 loss to Memphis.
Marcus Sasser (03/12): Sasser (groin) did not take the court in Sunday's 75-65 loss to Memphis in the American Conference title game.
Terrance Arceneaux (03/12): Arceneaux is part of the Cougars' starting lineup Sunday against Memphis, according to their Twitter account.
Marcus Sasser (03/11): Sasser (groin) will be a game-time call for Sunday's game against Memphis, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
Dylan Cardwell (03/10): Cardwell (ankle) finished with seven points (3-3 FG, 1-1 FT), one rebounds, one assist and a block across 14 minutes in a loss to Arkansas on Thursday.
Dylan Cardwell (03/07): Cardwell (ankle) was active for Tuesday's team practice, Tom Green of AL.com reports.
Jarace Walker (03/07): Walker contributed 10 points (4-8 FG, 2-5 3Pt, 0-1 FT), seven rebounds, one assist and two blocks in 33 minutes during Sunday's 67-65 win over Memphis.
Tramon Mark (03/06): Mark closed with 16 points (6-10 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 2-2 FT), eight rebounds, one block and two steals across 35 minutes during Sunday's 67-65 victory over Memphis.
Jamal Shead (03/06): Shead logged 16 points (6-16 FG, 2-7 3Pt, 2-3 FT), one rebound, seven assists and three steals in 38 minutes during Sunday's 67-65 victory over Memphis.
Marcus Sasser (03/06): Sasser closed with 13 points (4-12 FG, 3-9 3Pt, 2-3 FT), two rebounds, four assists and two steals in 37 minutes during Sunday's 67-65 win over Memphis.
Wendell Green (03/06): Green contributed 24 points (8-14 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 6-6 FT), one rebound, four assists and two steals over 34 minutes during Saturday's 79-70 victory over Tennessee.
Jarace Walker (03/05): Walker closed Sunday's 67-65 victory over Memphis with 10 points (4-8 FG, 2-5 3Pt, 0-1 FT), seven rebounds, one assist and two blocks across 33 minutes.
J'wan Roberts (03/05): Roberts ended with one point (1-2 FT), six rebounds, one assist and two blocks across 29 minutes during Sunday's 67-65 win over Memphis.
Dylan Cardwell (03/04): Cardwell (ankle) is out for today's game against Tennessee, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.