Preview: Arizona State vs. TCU

Game	Arizona State Sun Devils vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Date:	March 17th, 2023 10:05 PM
TV:	truTV

Preview

Arizona State Offense vs. TCU Defense

Arizona State checks in at 101st nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Sun Devils shoot 47.9 percent on twos and 31.4 percent on threes for a 47.5 effective field goal percentage.

TCU is ranked 28th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, TCU opponents make 49.1 percent of their twos and 30.4 percent of their threes for a 47.8 effective field goal percentage.

Basics

Arizona State’s offense has been playing well over the last month. The Sun Devils are ranked 56th in adjusted offensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 101st for the season.
According to KenPom, Arizona State is one of the “luckier” teams in the field, ranked 43rd nationally in luck, meaning that they’ve won more games than their adjusted efficiency margin stats would indicate.
Arizona State has struggled at the free-throw line all season, shooting just 69 percent at the stripe this year.

Extra Possessions

Arizona State does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Sun Devils only turn it over on 16.9 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a TCU defense that forces giveaways on 21.9 percent of possessions.
Arizona State does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Sun Devils score 15.3 points points per game off of turnovers.

Shot Profile

TCU does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, TCU contests 61 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Arizona State’s offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 56 percent of the Sun Devils’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
Arizona State’s offense doesn’t have a single player shooting 38% or better from 3-point range with over 50 attempts.
Arizona State’s offense is heavy on mid-range jumpers. The Sun Devils attempt 26 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 38 percent clip.

Style

Arizona State has an elite transition offense and scores 13.9 points per game in transition, while TCU’s transition defense has been run of the mill and allows 11.2 points per game in transition.
Arizona State’s ability to move the ball should create an advantage in this game. The Sun Devils record assists on 56.9 percent makes and the Horned Frogs allow assists on 55.9 percent of makes.
Arizona State’s offense is overweight on off-ball screens and cuts compared to the rest of the field and should test TCU’s defensive discipline off the ball. The Sun Devils average 10.2 points per game via cuts and off-ball screens, scoring 0.99 points per play on those actions. TCU’s defense excels at defending off-ball sets, allowing just 0.92 points per play.

TCU Offense vs. Arizona State Defense

TCU checks in at 46th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Horned Frogs shoot 51.9 percent on twos and 30.6 percent on threes for a 50.2 effective field goal percentage.

Arizona State is ranked 31st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Arizona State opponents make 43.8 percent of their twos and 33.6 percent of their threes for a 46.4 effective field goal percentage.

Basics

TCU plays as fast as any team in the country. The Horned Frogs average 71 possessions per game.
Arizona State’s press defense should create issues for TCU. Arizona State presses on 11.8 percent of plays and Horned Frogs only score 0.81 against pressure defense.
TCU does a great job of getting to the free-throw line. The Horned Frogs attempt 34 free throws per 100 field goal attempts. TCU’s ability to get to the line will pose issues for Arizona State, which struggles to stay out of foul trouble and keep its opponents off the line. The Sun Devils allow 33 free throws per 100 shot attempts.

Extra Possessions

Arizona State is one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers. The Sun Devils force giveaways on 20.6 percent of their opponents’ offensive possessions. TCU’s offense should be equipped to handle that pressure given that they grade out in the 72nd percentile nationally in turnover rate.
TCU does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Horned Frogs score 17.5 points points per game off of turnovers.
The Horned Frogs are fantastic on the offensive glass and rebound 32.4 percent of their missed shots. On the other side, Arizona State really struggles on the defensive glass, rebounding 68.2 percent of opponent misses, which should create a major advantage for TCU on the glass.
Second chance points are crucial to TCU’s offense. The Horned Frogs score 12.7 points off of second chances and only allow 10.7 points per game, outscoring teams by 2.0 points per game just on second chance opportunities. Arizona State has struggled on the glass and has been outscored by 0.7 points per game in the paint.

Shot Profile

TCU’s offensive attack is interior-focused. The Horned Frogs only attempt 30 percent of their shots from 3-point range. That lack of volume perimeter shooting is for the best because TCU shoots just 29 percent from long distance.
TCU dominates the paint. The Horned Frogs score 38.3 points and allow 31.3 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 7.0 points per game.
TCU’s offense doesn’t have a single player shooting 38% or better from 3-point range with over 50 attempts.
Arizona State is one of the best teams in the country at defending around the basket. Sun Devils opponents are shooting just 49 percent at the rim. TCU is usually very good at creating quality looks around the basket — finishing 61 percent of its shots withing five-feet — which sets up an interesting battle inside.

Style

TCU has an elite transition offense and scores 19.0 points per game in transition, while Arizona State’s transition defense has been run of the mill and allows 11.7 points per game in transition.
TCU is one of the better passing teams in the country and 58.6 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season.
TCU’s offense is overweight on off-ball screens and cuts compared to the rest of the field and should test Arizona State’s defensive discipline off the ball. The Horned Frogs average 9.3 points per game via cuts and off-ball screens, scoring 1.08 points per play on those actions. Arizona State’s defense is fairly average defending off the ball. Opponents score 0.95 points per play against the Sun Devils.

Bottom Line

Will we see an upset? Bart Torvik gives Arizona State a 40 percent chance of advancing and predicts a 72-70 final score.

ASU Personnel

#4 Desmond Cambridge

Role: Movement Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 180 lbs

Off Screen Shooter Mid-Range Specialist Pick Pocket Off the Dribble Shooter Takes Tough Shots Go-To Guy Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
13.7	3.5	2.2	104.6	24.2%	49.4%

#0 DJ Horne

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 175 lbs

Off Screen Shooter Mid-Range Specialist Poor Finisher Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
12.1	3.4	2.4	99.6	22.2%	44.1%

#35 Devan Cambridge

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 215 lbs

Smart Shot Selection Cut and Finish Below 65% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
9.8	5.5	0.9	108.0	18.6%	55.2%

#10 Frankie Collins

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 185 lbs

Distributor Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Gets to the Line Below 65% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
9.9	4.2	4.4	97.2	23.1%	43.8%

❄️❄️❄️: Collins is averaging 4.7 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 5.2 points below his season average.

#22 Warren Washington

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 7'0" | Weight: 225 lbs

Finisher Roll Man Rim Protector Non Shooter Gets to the Line Cut and Finish

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
9.2	6.9	1.5	110.4	17.9%	56.2%

TCU Personnel

#1 Mike Miles

Role: Domineering Ball Handler
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 195 lbs

Go-To Guy Gets to the Line Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
17.3	2.8	2.6	107.4	25.4%	55.5%

#2 Emanuel Miller

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 217 lbs

Catch and Shoot Cut and Finish Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
12.4	6.6	1.8	107.7	20.3%	54.9%

❄️❄️❄️: Miller is averaging 7.3 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 5.1 points below his season average.

#10 Damion Baugh

Role: Unknown
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 194 lbs

Distributor Pick Pocket Minutes Logger

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
12.6	4.6	5.8	101.6	22.3%	46.6%

❄️❄️❄️: Baugh is averaging 8.7 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 3.9 points below his season average.

#21 JaKobe Coles

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 216 lbs

Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
8.6	3.9	1.2	118.5	23.2%	52.5%

#5 Chuck O'Bannon

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 215 lbs

Smart Shot Selection Avoids Turnovers Inefficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
7.5	3.4	1	112.6	17.2%	48.3%

🔥🔥🔥: O'Bannon is averaging 13 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 5.5 points above his season average.

ATS

TCU ATS Performance

This Season

TCU is 18-16-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 17 of 34 TCU games (50%) this season.

TCU is 2-4-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 2 of TCU’s 6 games on neutral floors (33.3%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/7/2022	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	W, 73-72	-35.5	L	-34.5	142.5	OVER	2.5
11/11/2022	Lamar	W, 77-66	-33	L	-22	135.5	OVER	7.5
11/14/2022	Northwestern State	L, 63-64	-25	L	-26	142.5	UNDER	-15.5
11/17/2022	UL Monroe	W, 95-60	-18.5	W	16.5	142	OVER	13
11/25/2022	vs. California	W, 59-48	-11.5	L	-0.5	128.5	UNDER	-21.5
11/26/2022	vs. Iowa	W, 79-66	6	W	19	149.5	UNDER	-4.5
11/30/2022	Providence	W, 75-62	-7	W	6	135	OVER	2
12/6/2022	Jackson State	W, 78-51	-23	W	4	138	UNDER	-9
12/10/2022	vs. SMU	W, 83-75	-9	L	-1	134.5	OVER	23.5
12/18/2022	Mississippi Valley State	W, 88-43	-34	W	11	134	UNDER	-3
12/21/2022	at Utah	W, 75-71	0	W	4	138	OVER	8
12/28/2022	Central Arkansas	W, 103-57	-24.5	W	21.5	151.5	OVER	8.5
12/31/2022	Texas Tech	W, 67-61	-5.5	W	0.5	140.5	UNDER	-12.5
1/4/2023	at Baylor	W, 88-87	5.5	W	6.5	142.5	OVER	32.5
1/7/2023	Iowa State	L, 67-69	-5.5	L	-7.5	132.5	OVER	3.5
1/11/2023	at Texas	L, 75-79	8	W	4	142.5	OVER	11.5
1/14/2023	Kansas State	W, 82-68	-3.5	W	10.5	145.5	OVER	4.5
1/18/2023	at West Virginia	L, 65-74	2.5	L	-6.5	144.5	UNDER	-5.5
1/21/2023	at Kansas	W, 83-60	7	W	30	145.5	UNDER	-2.5
1/24/2023	Oklahoma	W, 79-52	-6	W	21	136.5	UNDER	-5.5
1/28/2023	at Mississippi State	L, 74-81	-2.5	L	-9.5	131.5	OVER	23.5
1/31/2023	West Virginia	W, 76-72	-2.5	W	1.5	144	OVER	4
2/4/2023	at Oklahoma State	L, 73-79	1	L	-5	134.5	OVER	17.5
2/7/2023	at Kansas State	L, 61-82	4.5	L	-16.5	147	UNDER	-4
2/11/2023	Baylor	L, 68-72	1	L	-3	149	UNDER	-9
2/15/2023	at Iowa State	L, 59-70	4	L	-7	134	UNDER	-5
2/18/2023	Oklahoma State	W, 100-75	-3.5	W	21.5	136.5	OVER	38.5
2/20/2023	Kansas	L, 58-63	1	L	-4	147.5	UNDER	-26.5
2/25/2023	at Texas Tech	W, 83-82	1.5	W	2.5	143.5	OVER	21.5
3/1/2023	Texas	W, 75-73	-1.5	W	0.5	149	UNDER	-1
3/4/2023	at Oklahoma	L, 60-74	-2	L	-16	143.5	UNDER	-9.5
3/9/2023	vs. Kansas State	W, 80-67	-2	W	11	148	UNDER	-1
3/10/2023	vs. Texas	L, 60-66	2	L	-4	147	UNDER	-21
3/17/2023	vs. Arizona State	W, 72-70	-5	L	-3	141	OVER	1

Head to Head

TCU is 0-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Arizona State in recorded games since 2023. The over has hit in 1 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (100%).

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
3/17/2023	vs. Arizona State	W, 72-70	-5	L	-3	141	OVER	1

Arizona State ATS Performance

This Season

Arizona State is 18-16-1 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 21 of 35 Arizona State games (60%) this season.

Arizona State is 6-2-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 5 of Arizona State’s 8 games on neutral floors (62.5%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/10/2022	Northern Arizona	W, 84-68	-15.5	W	0.5	138.5	OVER	13.5
11/13/2022	at Texas Southern	L, 66-67	-11	L	-12	145.5	UNDER	-12.5
11/16/2022	vs. VCU	W, 63-59	1.5	W	5.5	138.5	UNDER	-16.5
11/17/2022	vs. Michigan	W, 87-62	7.5	W	32.5	142	OVER	7
11/22/2022	Grambling	W, 80-49	-19.5	W	11.5	138.5	UNDER	-9.5
11/27/2022	Alcorn State	W, 76-54	-17.5	W	4.5	131.5	UNDER	-1.5
12/1/2022	at Colorado	W, 60-59	4.5	W	5.5	138	UNDER	-19
12/4/2022	Stanford	W, 68-64	-4	P	0	127.5	OVER	4.5
12/7/2022	at SMU	W, 75-57	-4.5	W	13.5	130.5	OVER	1.5
12/12/2022	vs. Creighton	W, 73-71	2	W	4	137	OVER	7
12/18/2022	San Diego	W, 91-67	-12	W	12	141	OVER	17
12/21/2022	at San Francisco	L, 60-97	-4	L	-41	140	OVER	17
12/31/2022	Arizona	L, 60-69	5.5	L	-3.5	155.5	UNDER	-26.5
1/5/2023	Washington State	W, 77-71	-5.5	W	0.5	130.5	OVER	17.5
1/8/2023	Washington	W, 73-65	-9.5	L	-1.5	137.5	OVER	0.5
1/12/2023	at Oregon	W, 90-73	4	W	21	135	OVER	28
1/14/2023	at Oregon State	W, 74-69	-7	L	-2	132.5	OVER	10.5
1/19/2023	UCLA	L, 62-74	5	L	-7	135.5	OVER	0.5
1/21/2023	USC	L, 69-77	-4	L	-12	138	OVER	8
1/26/2023	at Washington	L, 66-69	-2	L	-5	143.5	UNDER	-8.5
1/28/2023	at Washington State	L, 58-75	3.5	L	-13.5	131.5	OVER	1.5
2/2/2023	Oregon State	W, 68-57	-12.5	L	-1.5	129	UNDER	-4
2/4/2023	Oregon	L, 70-75	-1.5	L	-6.5	140.5	OVER	4.5
2/9/2023	at Stanford	W, 69-65	1.5	W	5.5	138.5	UNDER	-4.5
2/11/2023	at California	W, 70-62	-9.5	L	-1.5	129	OVER	3
2/16/2023	Colorado	L, 59-67	-2.5	L	-10.5	136.5	UNDER	-10.5
2/18/2023	Utah	W, 67-59	-2.5	W	5.5	133.5	UNDER	-7.5
2/25/2023	at Arizona	W, 89-88	10.5	W	11.5	151.5	OVER	25.5
3/2/2023	at UCLA	L, 61-79	13	L	-5	134	OVER	6
3/4/2023	at USC	L, 65-68	5	W	2	143.5	UNDER	-10.5
3/8/2023	vs. Oregon State	W, 63-57	-9	L	-3	131	UNDER	-11
3/9/2023	vs. USC	W, 77-72	3	W	8	139	OVER	10
3/10/2023	vs. Arizona	L, 59-78	8	L	-11	154.5	UNDER	-17.5
3/15/2023	vs. Nevada	W, 98-73	-1.5	W	23.5	134	OVER	37
3/17/2023	vs. TCU	L, 70-72	5	W	3	141	OVER	1

Head to Head

Arizona State is 1-0-0 against the spread when it plays against TCU in recorded games since 2023. The over has hit in 1 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (100%).

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
3/17/2023	vs. TCU	L, 70-72	5	W	3	141	OVER	1

Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.

Desmond Cambridge (03/18): Cambridge supplied 10 points (4-15 FG, 2-7 3Pt), four rebounds, two assists and one block across 31 minutes during Friday's 72-70 loss to TCU.
Warren Washington (03/18): Washington supplied 11 points (4-8 FG, 3-3 FT), eight rebounds, two assists and four blocks in 31 minutes during Friday's 72-70 loss to TCU.
Mike Miles (03/18): Miles chipped in 26 points (6-15 FG, 2-5 3Pt, 12-14 FT), four rebounds, three assists and two blocks over 36 minutes during Friday's 72-70 victory over Arizona State.
Austin Nunez (03/18): Nunez (concussion) missed his final game Friday against TCU.
DJ Horne (03/17): Horne finished Wednesday's 98-73 victory over Nevada with 20 points (7-10 FG, 4-5 3Pt, 2-3 FT), three rebounds and two assists across 27 minutes.
Luther Muhammad (03/17): Muhammad notched 12 points (5-7 FG, 2-4 3Pt), one rebound and one steal across 20 minutes during Wednesday's 98-73 victory over Nevada.
Austin Nunez (03/15): Arizona State head coach Bobby Hurley said that Nunez (concussion) will sit out Wednesday's First Four matchup with Nevada in the NCAA Tournament, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
Austin Nunez (03/14): Nunez (concussion) has a chance to return this week, 247Sports reports.
Eddie Lampkin (03/13): Lampkin entered the transfer portal Monday and is set to leave TCU, Jake Weingarten of Stockrisers.com reports.
Jamiya Neal (03/11): Neal notched 11 points (4-9 FG, 2-5 3Pt, 1-2 FT), one assist, one block and one steal across 23 minutes during Friday's 78-59 loss to Arizona.
Desmond Cambridge (03/11): Cambridge posted 27 points (10-21 FG, 6-12 3Pt, 1-3 FT), seven rebounds and two steals across 34 minutes during Thursday's 77-72 victory over USC.
Xavier Cork (03/10): Cork contributed four points (2-4 FG), seven rebounds and one assist over 21 minutes during Thursday's 80-67 victory over Kansas State.
Chuck O'Bannon (03/10): O'Bannon closed with 22 points (7-11 FG, 4-7 3Pt, 4-5 FT), seven rebounds and one block in 28 minutes during Thursday's 80-67 victory over Kansas State.
DJ Horne (03/10): Horne chipped in 13 points (6-12 FG, 1-5 3Pt), one rebound and two assists in 34 minutes during Wednesday's 63-57 victory over Oregon State.
Austin Nunez (03/09): Nunez (concussion) is not in uniform ahead of Thursday's matchup with the Sun Devils, SunDevilSource.com reports.
Austin Nunez (03/09): Nunez (concussion) is considered a game-time decision for Thursday's Pac-12 Tournament matchup against USC, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
Desmond Cambridge (03/09): Cambridge closed Wednesday's 63-57 victory over Oregon State with 13 points (4-14 FG, 3-11 3Pt, 2-2 FT), four rebounds, three assists and two steals in 30 minutes.
Eddie Lampkin (03/08): Lampkin didn't travel with TCU to Kansas City for this week's Big 12 Conference tournament and has left the team to tend to a personal matter, Jamie Plunkett of FrogsToday.com reports.
Devan Cambridge (03/07): Cambridge ended Saturday's 68-65 loss to USC with 12 points (4-10 FG, 0-2 3Pt, 4-6 FT), 10 rebounds, one assist and one steal in 27 minutes.
Frankie Collins (03/07): Collins provided 12 points (4-8 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 3-4 FT), four rebounds, two assists and four steals in 32 minutes during Saturday's 68-65 loss to USC.
Warren Washington (03/07): Washington closed Saturday's 68-65 loss to USC with 10 points (3-11 FG, 4-6 FT), 11 rebounds, one block and one steal over 31 minutes.
Austin Nunez (03/07): Nunez (concussion) could be cleared to return if ASU makes a run in the Pac-12 Tournament, 247Sports.com reports.
Souleymane Doumbia (03/05): Doumbia (concussion) played eight minutes during TCU's 74-60 loss Saturday at Oklahoma.
Austin Nunez (03/04): Nunez (concussion) has been ruled out of Saturday's game against UNC, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
Eddie Lampkin (03/04): Lampkin (undisclosed) will be inactive for Saturday's game against Oklahoma.