Preview: Michigan State vs. Marquette

Game	Michigan State Spartans vs. Marquette Golden Eagles
Date:	March 19th, 2023 5:15 PM
TV:	CBS

Preview

Michigan State Offense vs. Marquette Defense

The Spartans are ranked 35th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Michigan State shoots 47.7 percent on twos and 39.5 percent on threes for a 51.6 effective field goal percentage.

Marquette’s defense is ranked 45th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 50 percent on twos and 35.2 percent on threes for a 51.1 effective field goal percentage against the Golden Eagles.

Basics

Michigan State’s offense enters the tournament on a hot streak. Over the last 30 days, the Spartans are ranked 4th in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to 35th for the year.
The Spartans are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 77.7 inches according to KenPom.com.
Michigan State plays at a deliberate pace. The Spartans average 66 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball. Marquette prefers to play fast and averages 71 possessions per game meaning this should be a game of contrasting tempo.
Michigan State makes 76 percent of its free throws which should come in handy in a close game.

Extra Possessions

Michigan State does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Spartans only turn it over on 16.4 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a Marquette defense that forces giveaways on 22.8 percent of possessions.

Shot Profile

Marquette allows opponents to attempt 38 percent of their shots from 3-point range. MARQ opponents are shooting 35 percent from 3-point range while Michigan State is shooting 40 percent from outside and attempts 34 percent of its shots from long distance.
Michigan State is difficult to guard because it has 3 players on the roster shooting at least 38 percent from 3-point range on over 50 perimeter attempts.
Michigan State’s offense is heavy on mid-range jumpers. The Spartans attempt 33 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 40 percent clip.

Style

Michigan State is one of the better passing teams in the country and 57.6 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season. That should provide a significant advantage for the Spartans because Marquette’s defense allows a lot of assisted field goals. MARQ opponents record assists on 58.6 percent of made baskets.

Marquette Offense vs. Michigan State Defense

Marquette checks in at 7th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Golden Eagles shoot 58.8 percent on twos and 34.8 percent on threes for a 56 effective field goal percentage.

Michigan State is ranked 37th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Michigan State opponents make 48.6 percent of their twos and 31.5 percent of their threes for a 48.1 effective field goal percentage.

Basics

Michigan State’s defense has been struggling over the last month. The Spartans are ranked 164th in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 37th for the season.
Marquette plays as fast as any team in the country. The Golden Eagles average 71 possessions per game. On the other side, Michigan State prefers to control the game and does a good job of that. Spartans games only average 66 possessions per game

Extra Possessions

Marquette does a great job of valuing the basketball, turnovers on just 15.2 percent of possessions, and Michigan State’s defense doesn’t prioritize forcing giveaways. The Spartans only force giveaways on 14.7 percent of opponent possessions, so expect a low turnover performance by Marquette’s offense.
Marquette does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Golden Eagles score 18.6 points points per game off of turnovers. Michigan State avoids turnovers for touchdowns, allowing only 11.6 points per game off of giveaways.

Shot Profile

Marquette’s offensive attack is perimeter-oriented. The Golden Eagles attempt 41 percent of their shots from 3-point range. The Golden Eagles also make a lot of those attempts, shooting 35 percent from outside the arc. Michigan State’s defense is vulnerable against the three, allowing its opponents to attempt 39 percent of their shots from outside the arc.
Michigan State does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, MSU contests 60 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Marquette’s offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 55 percent of the Golden Eagles’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
Marquette dominates the paint. The Golden Eagles score 39.1 points and allow 30.6 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 8.5 points per game. Michigan State has struggled inside this year and has been outscored by 3.8 points per game in the paint.
Marquette is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Golden Eagles shoot 64 percent at the rim and Michigan State allows 57 percent shooting inside of five feet.

Style

Marquette is one of the better passing teams in the country and 59.3 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season.
Marquette is reliant on ball screen screen offense. The Golden Eagles score 29.2 points per game out of ball screen actions at 0.96 points per play. Michigan State’s defense is fairly average containing ball screen looks. Opponents score 0.80 points per ball screen action (including pass-outs) against the Spartans.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik projects a 72-69 Marquette victory over Michigan State and gives the Golden Eagles a 62 percent chance at picking up the win.

MSU Personnel

#2 Tyson Walker

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 180 lbs

Off Screen Shooter Mid-Range Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
14.6	2.5	2.8	110.4	22.0%	53.1%

#10 Joey Hauser

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 220 lbs

Glue Guy Off Screen Shooter Mid-Range Specialist Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
14.2	6.9	1.9	119.7	19.7%	59.8%

#11 A.J. Hoggard

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 210 lbs

Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Takes Tough Shots Go-To Guy Gets to the Line Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
12.5	3.8	6	105.0	27.4%	44.4%

#3 Jaden Akins

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 190 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
9.6	3.9	1.2	100.7	19.5%	51.3%

🔥🔥🔥: Akins is averaging 13.3 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 3.7 points above his season average.

#25 Malik Hall

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 220 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
9.2	4.2	1.2	106.6	20.3%	50%

MARQ Personnel

#1 Kam Jones

Role: Movement Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 195 lbs

Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
15	3.5	2.1	114.8	21.7%	57%

#11 Tyler Kolek

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 190 lbs

Distributor Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
13.3	4.2	7.6	120.8	23.8%	54.8%

🔥🔥🔥: Kolek is averaging 18.7 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 5.4 points above his season average.

#12 Olivier-Maxence Prosper

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 230 lbs

Smart Shot Selection Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
12.4	4.6	0.7	114.5	19.9%	57.6%

#13 Oso Ighodaro

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 215 lbs

Finisher Roll Man Mid-Range Specialist Non Shooter Cut and Finish Efficient Shooter Below 65% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
11.4	5.9	3.2	122.3	18.2%	65.3%

❄️❄️❄️: Ighodaro is averaging 6 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 5.4 points below his season average.

#23 David Joplin

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 220 lbs

Catch and Shoot Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
9.3	3.3	0.8	105.2	23.9%	54.7%

ATS

Marquette ATS Performance

This Season

Marquette is 22-13-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 19 of 35 Marquette games (54.3%) this season.

Marquette is 4-2-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 1 of Marquette’s 6 games on neutral floors (16.7%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/7/2022	Radford	W, 79-69	-18.5	L	-8.5	137	OVER	11
11/10/2022	Central Michigan	W, 97-73	-17.5	W	6.5	146.5	OVER	23.5
11/15/2022	at Purdue	L, 70-75	9	W	4	147	UNDER	-2
11/17/2022	Brooklyn	W, 95-58	-25	W	12	152	OVER	1
11/21/2022	vs. Mississippi State	L, 55-58	-3.5	L	-6.5	141	UNDER	-28
11/23/2022	vs. Georgia Tech	W, 84-60	5	W	29	142	OVER	2
11/26/2022	Chicago State	W, 82-68	-26.5	L	-12.5	146.5	OVER	3.5
11/29/2022	Baylor	W, 96-70	4.5	W	30.5	155	OVER	11
12/3/2022	Wisconsin	L, 77-80	-5.5	L	-8.5	136	OVER	21
12/6/2022	North Carolina Central	W, 90-78	-19	L	-7	147	OVER	21
12/11/2022	at Notre Dame	W, 79-64	-1	W	14	146.5	UNDER	-3.5
12/16/2022	Creighton	W, 69-58	-4	W	7	154	UNDER	-27
12/20/2022	at Providence	L, 98-103	0	L	-5	150.5	OVER	50.5
12/27/2022	Seton Hall	W, 83-69	-7	W	7	140.5	OVER	11.5
12/31/2022	at Villanova	W, 68-66	2.5	W	4.5	144.5	UNDER	-10.5
1/3/2023	at St. John's	W, 96-85	-3	W	8	156	OVER	25
1/7/2023	Georgetown	W, 95-73	-18.5	W	3.5	154.5	OVER	13.5
1/11/2023	UConn	W, 82-76	1	W	7	146.5	OVER	11.5
1/15/2023	at Xavier	L, 76-80	3.5	L	-0.5	164	UNDER	-8
1/18/2023	Providence	W, 83-75	-5.5	W	2.5	152.5	OVER	5.5
1/21/2023	at Seton Hall	W, 74-53	-2	W	19	143.5	UNDER	-16.5
1/28/2023	at DePaul	W, 89-69	-9.5	W	10.5	152.5	OVER	5.5
2/1/2023	Villanova	W, 73-64	-7	W	2	144.5	UNDER	-7.5
2/4/2023	Butler	W, 60-52	-14	L	-6	145.5	UNDER	-33.5
2/7/2023	at UConn	L, 72-87	4.5	L	-10.5	147	OVER	12
2/11/2023	at Georgetown	W, 89-75	-10.5	W	3.5	149.5	OVER	14.5
2/15/2023	Xavier	W, 69-68	-5.5	L	-4.5	159.5	UNDER	-22.5
2/21/2023	at Creighton	W, 73-71	4	W	6	150	UNDER	-6
2/25/2023	DePaul	W, 90-84	-15	L	-9	152	OVER	22
2/28/2023	at Butler	W, 72-56	-8	W	8	142	UNDER	-14
3/4/2023	St. John's	W, 96-94	-12	L	-10	158.5	OVER	31.5
3/9/2023	vs. St. John's	W, 72-70	-5	L	-3	164	UNDER	-22
3/10/2023	vs. UConn	W, 70-68	3.5	W	5.5	147	UNDER	-9
3/11/2023	vs. Xavier	W, 65-51	-2	W	12	154	UNDER	-38
3/17/2023	vs. Vermont	W, 78-61	-11	W	6	145.5	UNDER	-6.5

Head to Head

We don’t have any head-to-head games on file between these two teams.

Michigan State ATS Performance

This Season

Michigan State is 15-17-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 17 of 32 Michigan State games (53.1%) this season.

Michigan State is 3-4-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 4 of Michigan State’s 7 games on neutral floors (57.1%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/7/2022	Northern Arizona	W, 73-55	-21	L	-3	143	UNDER	-15
11/11/2022	vs. Gonzaga	L, 63-64	-11.5	L	-12.5	145.5	UNDER	-18.5
11/15/2022	vs. Kentucky	W, 86-77	5.5	W	14.5	141.5	OVER	21.5
11/18/2022	Villanova	W, 73-71	-5	L	-3	133.5	OVER	10.5
11/24/2022	vs. Alabama	L, 70-81	1.5	L	-9.5	145	OVER	6
11/25/2022	vs. Oregon	W, 74-70	-2	W	2	135.5	OVER	8.5
11/27/2022	vs. Portland	W, 78-77	-8.5	L	-7.5	145.5	OVER	9.5
11/30/2022	at Notre Dame	L, 52-70	-1	L	-19	135.5	UNDER	-13.5
12/4/2022	Northwestern	L, 63-70	-7	L	-14	126.5	OVER	6.5
12/7/2022	at Penn State	W, 67-58	3.5	W	12.5	134.5	UNDER	-9.5
12/10/2022	Brown	W, 68-50	-17.5	W	0.5	133	UNDER	-15
12/21/2022	Oakland	W, 67-54	-20.5	L	-7.5	145	UNDER	-24
12/30/2022	Buffalo	W, 89-68	-16	W	5	145	OVER	12
1/3/2023	Nebraska	W, 74-56	-8	W	10	132	UNDER	-2
1/7/2023	Michigan	W, 59-53	-4.5	W	1.5	139.5	UNDER	-27.5
1/10/2023	at Wisconsin	W, 69-65	3.5	W	7.5	125.5	OVER	8.5
1/13/2023	at Illinois	L, 66-75	5	L	-4	136.5	OVER	4.5
1/16/2023	Purdue	L, 63-64	3.5	W	2.5	133	UNDER	-6
1/19/2023	Rutgers	W, 70-57	-1.5	W	11.5	125.5	OVER	1.5
1/22/2023	at Indiana	L, 69-82	4.5	L	-8.5	138.5	OVER	12.5
1/26/2023	Iowa	W, 63-61	-2.5	L	-0.5	147.5	UNDER	-23.5
1/29/2023	at Purdue	L, 61-77	8	L	-8	130.5	OVER	7.5
2/4/2023	at Rutgers	L, 55-61	4	L	-2	127.5	UNDER	-11.5
2/7/2023	Maryland	W, 63-58	-4	W	1	131.5	UNDER	-10.5
2/12/2023	at Ohio State	W, 62-41	3	W	24	137	UNDER	-34
2/18/2023	at Michigan	L, 72-84	1	L	-11	132	OVER	24
2/21/2023	Indiana	W, 80-65	-1.5	W	13.5	137	OVER	8
2/25/2023	at Iowa	L, 106-112	3	L	-3	146.5	OVER	71.5
2/28/2023	at Nebraska	W, 80-67	-3.5	W	9.5	138	OVER	9
3/4/2023	Ohio State	W, 84-78	-7	L	-1	139.5	OVER	22.5
3/10/2023	vs. Ohio State	L, 58-68	-3.5	L	-13.5	139	UNDER	-13
3/17/2023	vs. USC	W, 72-62	-2	W	8	137.5	UNDER	-3.5

Head to Head

We don’t have any head-to-head games on file between these two teams.

Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.

Joey Hauser (03/18): Hauser racked up 17 points (4-9 FG, 4-6 3Pt, 5-6 FT), eight rebounds and one assist across 36 minutes during Friday's 72-62 victory over USC.
Tyler Kolek (03/18): Kolek (thumb) is expected top play on Sunday against Michigan State, John Leuzzi at MUWireSports reports.
David Joplin (03/11): Joplin notched 17 points (5-7 FG, 4-5 3Pt, 3-3 FT), three rebounds and one assist across 18 minutes during Friday's 70-68 victory over UConn.
Olivier-Maxence Prosper (03/11): Prosper produced 11 points (3-8 FG, 1-4 3Pt, 4-4 FT), three rebounds and one assist across 34 minutes during Friday's 70-68 victory over UConn.
Oso Ighodaro (03/09): Ighodaro finished with 10 points (5-7 FG), 11 rebounds, five assists and three blocks in 42 minutes during Thursday's 72-70 OT win over St. John's. He also had seven turnovers.
Tyler Kolek (03/09): Kolek had 19 points (6-18 FG, 1-5 3Pt, 6-8 FT), nine rebounds, six assists and two steals over 39 minutes during Thursday's 72-70 OT win over St. John's.
Kam Jones (03/06): Jones ended with 23 points (8-14 FG, 5-10 3Pt, 2-4 FT), one rebound, two assists and one steal across 30 minutes during Saturday's 96-94 victory over St. John's.
Joey Hauser (03/05): Hauser supplied 16 points (6-7 FG, 3-3 3Pt, 1-2 FT), six rebounds and two assists in 35 minutes during Saturday's 84-78 win over Ohio State.
A.J. Hoggard (03/05): Hoggard closed with 23 points (6-11 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 9-11 FT), three rebounds, seven assists and one steal across 30 minutes during Saturday's 84-78 win over Ohio State.
Jason Whitens (03/04): Whitens played three minutes during Michigan State's 84-78 win Saturday versus Ohio State.
Malik Hall (03/04): Hall contributed 10 points (4-8 FG, 2-4 3Pt), three rebounds and one block in 28 minutes during Saturday's 84-78 victory over Ohio State.
Mady Sissoko (03/04): Sissoko will not be in the starting lineup Saturday against Ohio State, Kyle Austin of MLive.com reports.
Jaden Akins (03/04): Akins isn't in the starting five for Saturday's game versus Ohio State, Kyle Austin of MLive.com reports.
Olivier-Maxence Prosper (03/02): Prosper posted 14 points (5-8 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 2-2 FT), five rebounds and one assist over 26 minutes during Tuesday's 72-56 win over Butler.
Tyler Kolek (03/02): Kolek racked up 21 points (9-13 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 1-1 FT), two rebounds, 10 assists and one steal over 33 minutes during Tuesday's 72-56 victory over Butler.
Jaden Akins (02/26): Akins contributed 21 points (7-10 FG, 4-4 3Pt, 3-4 FT), three rebounds and one assist across 34 minutes during Saturday's 112-106 OT loss to Iowa.
Tyson Walker (02/26): Walker chipped in 31 points (11-15 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 7-8 FT), four rebounds, five assists and one steal in 41 minutes during Saturday's 112-106 OT loss to Iowa.
Carson Cooper (02/25): Cooper (foot) was warming up and will be available for Saturday's game at Iowa, Kyle Austin of MLive.com.
Carson Cooper (02/23): Cooper (foot) practiced Thursday and is expected to be available Saturday against Iowa, Matt Charboneau of The Detroit News reports.
Kam Jones (02/22): Jones ended Tuesday's 73-71 victory over Creighton with 19 points (7-17 FG, 3-9 3Pt, 2-4 FT), six rebounds, one assist and one steal in 33 minutes.
Tyler Kolek (02/22): Kolek racked up 18 points (7-13 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 3-4 FT), four rebounds, six assists and three steals in 38 minutes during Tuesday's 73-71 win over Creighton.
Malik Hall (02/20): Hall logged 14 points (6-11 FG, 2-4 3Pt), three rebounds and one assist across 25 minutes during Saturday's 84-72 loss to Michigan.
Tyson Walker (02/20): Walker ended with 11 points (5-11 FG, 1-5 3Pt) and two assists in 33 minutes during Saturday's 84-72 loss to Michigan.
Joey Hauser (02/20): Hauser ended with 20 points (6-13 FG, 3-7 3Pt, 5-5 FT), four rebounds and one steal across 36 minutes during Saturday's 84-72 loss to Michigan.
Pierre Brooks (02/19): Brooks did not play during the Spartans' 84-72 loss Saturday at Michigan.