Preview: Pittsburgh vs. Xavier

Game	Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Xavier Musketeers
Date:	March 19th, 2023 12:10 PM
TV:	CBS

Preview

Pittsburgh Offense vs. Xavier Defense

Pittsburgh checks in at 32nd nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Panthers shoot 52.7 percent on twos and 36 percent on threes for a 53.2 effective field goal percentage.

Xavier is ranked 79th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Xavier opponents make 48.7 percent of their twos and 35.9 percent of their threes for a 50.4 effective field goal percentage.

Basics

Pittsburgh is one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, averaging 2.2 years of experience weighted by minutes played, per KenPom.com. Xavier isn’t short on experience itself, with an average weighted years of experience of 2.5 years.
You can trust Pittsburgh at the line in a close game. The Panthers shoot 76 percent at the line for the season.

Extra Possessions

Pittsburgh does a great job of valuing the basketball, turnovers on just 16.4 percent of possessions, and Xavier’s defense doesn’t prioritize forcing giveaways. The Musketeers only force giveaways on 16.5 percent of opponent possessions, so expect a low turnover performance by Pittsburgh’s offense.

Shot Profile

Pittsburgh’s offensive attack is perimeter-oriented. The Panthers attempt 45 percent of their shots from 3-point range. The Panthers also make a lot of those attempts, shooting 36 percent from outside the arc.
Xavier’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Musketeers opponents attempt 25 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 33 percent clip. Pittsburgh’s offense shoots 44 percent on its mid-range attempts.

Style

Xavier’s defense gives up assists on 54.3 percent of made baskets which is a sign that they help too aggressively.
Pittsburgh is reliant on ball screen screen offense. The Panthers score 27.2 points per game out of ball screen actions at 0.97 points per play. Xavier’s defense is fairly average containing ball screen looks. Opponents score 0.79 points per ball screen action (including pass-outs) against the Musketeers.
Pittsburgh trusts its players to create in one-on-one situations and scores 6.5 points per game out of iso actions and average 0.87 points per isolation play.

Xavier Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense

Xavier checks in at 8th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Musketeers shoot 54 percent on twos and 39.5 percent on threes for a 55.6 effective field goal percentage.

Pittsburgh is ranked 127th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Pittsburgh opponents make 48.6 percent of their twos and 33.4 percent of their threes for a 49.2 effective field goal percentage.

Basics

Pittsburgh’s defense has been struggling over the last month. The Panthers are ranked 245th in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 127th for the season.
The Musketeers are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 78.4 inches according to KenPom.com.
Xavier plays as fast as any team in the country. The Musketeers average 72 possessions per game.

Extra Possessions

The game should be fairly turnover neutral on this side of the ball. Xavier turns it over on 17.5 percent of possessions and Pittsburgh forces giveaways on 16.7 percent of possessions.
The Musketeers are fantastic on the offensive glass and rebound 31.8 percent of their missed shots. Pittsburgh is just okay on the defensive glass, grabbing 71.8 percent of opponent misses, which means the rebounding battle could swing this game in either direction.

Shot Profile

Xavier’s offensive attack is interior-focused. The Musketeers only attempt 32 percent of their shots from 3-point range. Despite not being a high volume 3-point shooting team, Xavier shoots an impressive 39 percent from outside the arc.
Xavier dominates the paint. The Musketeers score 38.9 points and allow 32.6 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 6.3 points per game. Pittsburgh has struggled inside this year and has been outscored by 1.6 points per game in the paint.
Xavier is difficult to guard because it has 4 players on the roster shooting at least 38 percent from 3-point range on over 50 perimeter attempts.
Xavier is a tough scout because its bigs can stretch the floor. The Musketeers have one big with at least 75 3-point attempts including Jack Nunge.
Xavier is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Musketeers shoot 61 percent at the rim and Pittsburgh allows 53 percent shooting inside of five feet.

Style

Xavier is one of the better passing teams in the country and 63.8 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season.
Xavier relies on post-up offense to score. The Musketeers average 12.1 points per game out of post-up actions. Pittsburgh is fairly average defending the post, allowing 0.79 points per play.

Bottom Line

According to Bart Torvik, Xavier is a 81-76 favorite with a 69 percent chance of advancing.

PITT Personnel

#2 Blake Hinson

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 255 lbs

Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
15.5	6.2	1.2	109.5	23.6%	54.3%

#11 Jamarius Burton

Role: Domineering Ball Handler
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 200 lbs

Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Takes Tough Shots Go-To Guy Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
15.6	4.8	4.3	111.9	25.8%	52.1%

#0 Nelly Cummings

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'0" | Weight: 190 lbs

Distributor Off the Dribble Shooter Takes Tough Shots Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
11.1	2.6	4.8	111.5	20.1%	51.4%

#3 Greg Elliott

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 180 lbs

Corner 3-Point Specialist Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
10.4	3.8	1.2	123.3	14.9%	59.8%

❄️❄️❄️: Elliott is averaging 6 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 4.4 points below his season average.

#22 Nike Sibande

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 185 lbs

Avoids Turnovers

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
8.5	3.9	1.2	110.5	18.6%	52%

🔥🔥🔥: Sibande is averaging 12.7 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 4.2 points above his season average.

XAV Personnel

#0 Souley Boum

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 175 lbs

Distributor Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Gets to the Line Minutes Logger Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
16.5	4.3	4.4	121.3	21.2%	54.9%

#3 Colby Jones

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 205 lbs

Distributor Catch and Shoot Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
15.2	5.4	4.3	114.6	22.1%	57.6%

#24 Jack Nunge

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 7'0" | Weight: 245 lbs

Stretch Big Man Pick and Pop Roll Man Catch and Shoot Offensive Rebounder Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
14.1	7.8	2.1	122.7	21.5%	58.1%

#5 Adam Kunkel

Role: Movement Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 185 lbs

Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
10.5	2.7	3	109.4	17.1%	54.9%

#32 Zach Freemantle

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 225 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Catch and Shoot Non Shooter Defensive Rebounder Go-To Guy Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
15.2	8.1	2.9	111.1	24.1%	61.5%

ATS

Xavier ATS Performance

This Season

Xavier is 17-14-4 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 21 of 35 Xavier games (60%) this season.

Xavier is 3-4-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 3 of Xavier’s 7 games on neutral floors (42.9%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/7/2022	Morgan State	W, 96-73	-23.5	L	-0.5	146	OVER	23
11/11/2022	Montana	W, 86-64	-17.5	W	4.5	143.5	OVER	6.5
11/15/2022	Fairfield	W, 78-65	-18.5	L	-5.5	139	OVER	4
11/18/2022	Indiana	L, 79-81	2	P	0	145	OVER	15
11/24/2022	vs. Florida	W, 90-83	-1.5	W	5.5	149.5	OVER	23.5
11/25/2022	vs. Duke	L, 64-71	3.5	L	-3.5	146.5	UNDER	-11.5
11/27/2022	vs. Gonzaga	L, 84-88	6.5	W	2.5	161	OVER	11
11/30/2022	SE Louisiana	W, 95-63	-23	W	9	154	OVER	4
12/3/2022	West Virginia	W, 84-74	-1.5	W	8.5	150.5	OVER	7.5
12/10/2022	at Cincinnati	W, 80-77	-1	W	2	152.5	OVER	4.5
12/13/2022	Southern	W, 79-59	-20	P	0	154	UNDER	-16
12/16/2022	at Georgetown	W, 102-89	-11	W	2	156.5	OVER	34.5
12/20/2022	Seton Hall	W, 73-70	-7.5	L	-4.5	144	UNDER	-1
12/28/2022	at St. John's	W, 84-79	-2	W	3	161	OVER	2
12/31/2022	UConn	W, 83-73	2.5	W	12.5	150	OVER	6
1/7/2023	at Villanova	W, 88-80	2.5	W	10.5	146.5	OVER	21.5
1/11/2023	Creighton	W, 90-87	-3	P	0	152.5	OVER	24.5
1/15/2023	Marquette	W, 80-76	-3.5	W	0.5	164	UNDER	-8
1/18/2023	at DePaul	L, 72-73	-8.5	L	-9.5	158.5	UNDER	-13.5
1/21/2023	Georgetown	W, 95-82	-17.5	L	-4.5	157	OVER	20
1/25/2023	at UConn	W, 82-79	6.5	W	9.5	151.5	OVER	9.5
1/28/2023	at Creighton	L, 67-84	5.5	L	-11.5	157.5	UNDER	-6.5
2/1/2023	Providence	W, 85-83	-3.5	L	-1.5	152.5	OVER	15.5
2/4/2023	St. John's	W, 96-71	-10	W	15	164.5	OVER	2.5
2/10/2023	at Butler	L, 67-69	-6	L	-8	149.5	UNDER	-13.5
2/15/2023	at Marquette	L, 68-69	5.5	W	4.5	159.5	UNDER	-22.5
2/18/2023	DePaul	W, 82-68	-14	P	0	159	UNDER	-9
2/21/2023	Villanova	L, 63-64	-7	L	-8	150	UNDER	-23
2/24/2023	at Seton Hall	W, 82-60	-1.5	W	20.5	142	UNDER	0
3/1/2023	at Providence	W, 94-89	3.5	W	8.5	154.5	OVER	28.5
3/4/2023	Butler	W, 78-66	-13	L	-1	142.5	OVER	1.5
3/9/2023	vs. DePaul	W, 89-84	-11	L	-6	153	OVER	20
3/10/2023	vs. Creighton	W, 82-60	3.5	W	25.5	153	UNDER	-11
3/11/2023	vs. Marquette	L, 51-65	2	L	-12	154	UNDER	-38
3/17/2023	vs. Kennesaw State	W, 72-67	-11	L	-6	151.5	UNDER	-12.5

Head to Head

We don’t have any head-to-head games on file between these two teams.

Pittsburgh ATS Performance

This Season

Pittsburgh is 23-11-1 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 20 of 35 Pittsburgh games (57.1%) this season.

Pittsburgh is 3-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 4 of Pittsburgh’s 6 games on neutral floors (66.7%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/7/2022	UT Martin	W, 80-58	-11	W	11	140	UNDER	-2
11/11/2022	West Virginia	L, 56-81	2	L	-23	138.5	UNDER	-1.5
11/16/2022	vs. Michigan	L, 60-91	8	L	-23	142	OVER	9
11/17/2022	vs. VCU	L, 67-71	2.5	L	-1.5	134	OVER	4
11/20/2022	Alabama State	W, 73-54	-21	L	-2	143	UNDER	-16
11/22/2022	Fairleigh Dickinson	W, 83-61	-15.5	W	6.5	148.5	UNDER	-4.5
11/25/2022	William & Mary	W, 80-64	-14	W	2	135.5	OVER	8.5
11/28/2022	at Northwestern	W, 87-58	8.5	W	37.5	127	OVER	18
12/2/2022	at NC State	W, 68-60	8.5	W	16.5	147.5	UNDER	-19.5
12/7/2022	at Vanderbilt	L, 74-75	4	W	3	136	OVER	13
12/10/2022	Sacred Heart	W, 91-66	-17	W	8	147	OVER	10
12/17/2022	North Florida	W, 82-56	-13.5	W	12.5	147	UNDER	-9
12/20/2022	at Syracuse	W, 84-82	3.5	W	5.5	139.5	OVER	26.5
12/30/2022	North Carolina	W, 76-74	5.5	W	7.5	149	OVER	1
1/3/2023	Virginia	W, 68-65	5	W	8	129.5	OVER	3.5
1/7/2023	Clemson	L, 74-75	-2.5	L	-3.5	141.5	OVER	7.5
1/11/2023	at Duke	L, 69-77	8	P	0	139	OVER	7
1/14/2023	at Georgia Tech	W, 71-60	-1.5	W	9.5	141.5	UNDER	-10.5
1/18/2023	at Louisville	W, 75-54	-10.5	W	10.5	138.5	UNDER	-9.5
1/21/2023	Florida State	L, 64-71	-7.5	L	-14.5	144	UNDER	-9
1/25/2023	Wake Forest	W, 81-79	-3	L	-1	148	OVER	12
1/28/2023	Miami	W, 71-68	-1	W	2	148	UNDER	-9
2/1/2023	at North Carolina	W, 65-64	8.5	W	9.5	146	UNDER	-17
2/7/2023	Louisville	W, 91-57	-15.5	W	18.5	138.5	OVER	9.5
2/11/2023	at Florida State	W, 83-75	-4.5	W	3.5	144.5	OVER	13.5
2/14/2023	Boston College	W, 77-58	-9	W	10	138.5	UNDER	-3.5
2/18/2023	at Virginia Tech	L, 72-79	3	L	-4	147	OVER	4
2/21/2023	Georgia Tech	W, 76-68	-11	L	-3	139	OVER	5
2/25/2023	Syracuse	W, 99-82	-6	W	11	144.5	OVER	36.5
3/1/2023	at Notre Dame	L, 81-88	-4	L	-11	143	OVER	26
3/4/2023	at Miami	L, 76-78	6.5	W	4.5	154.5	UNDER	-0.5
3/8/2023	vs. Georgia Tech	W, 89-81	-7	W	1	143.5	OVER	26.5
3/9/2023	vs. Duke	L, 69-96	4.5	L	-22.5	141.5	OVER	23.5
3/14/2023	vs. Mississippi State	W, 60-59	1.5	W	2.5	132	UNDER	-13
3/17/2023	vs. Iowa State	W, 59-41	4	W	22	130.5	UNDER	-30.5

Head to Head

We don’t have any head-to-head games on file between these two teams.

Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.

Nelly Cummings (03/18): Cummings contributed 13 points (5-11 FG, 2-5 3Pt, 1-1 FT), one rebound, three assists and two steals across 31 minutes during Friday's 59-41 win over Iowa State.
Jamarius Burton (03/18): Burton totaled 11 points (1-7 FG, 9-10 FT), four rebounds, three assists and one steal over 35 minutes during Friday's 59-41 victory over Iowa State.
Fede Federiko (03/18): Federiko registered one point (1-2 FT), one rebound and one block over 11 minutes during Friday's 59-41 victory over Iowa State.
Fede Federiko (03/17): Federiko (knee) is expected to be available for Friday's game against Iowa State.
KyKy Tandy (03/16): Tandy (foot) is out for Friday's game versus Kennesaw State, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
Kam Craft (03/16): Craft (knee) will be available during Xavier's game Thursday against Kennesaw State, according to Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports.
Fede Federiko (03/16): Coach Jeff Capel said Thursday that Federiko (knee) is considered day-to-day, Corey Crisan of DKPittsburghSports.com reports.
Greg Elliott (03/15): Elliott had 13 points (3-9 FG, 2-6 3Pt, 5-7 FT), five rebounds and two steals across 38 minutes during Tuesday's 60-59 victory over Mississippi State.
Nelly Cummings (03/15): Cummings notched 15 points (6-13 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 1-2 FT), three rebounds, four assists and two steals over 40 minutes during Tuesday's 60-59 win over Mississippi State.
Guillermo Diaz Graham (03/15): Diaz Graham had three points (1-8 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 0-1 FT), five rebounds, one assist, two blocks and two steals over 37 minutes during Tuesday's 60-59 victory over Mississippi State.
Guillermo Diaz Graham (03/14): Diaz Graham is in the starting five for Tuesday's game versus Mississippi State, Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Fede Federiko (03/14): Federiko (knee) is out for Tuesday's game versus Mississippi State.
John Hugley (03/14): Hugley has entered the transfer portal, VerbalCommits.com reports.
Fede Federiko (03/13): Federiko (undisclosed) is a game-time decision for Tuesday's game against Mississippi State in Dayton, Corey Crisan of DKPittsburghSports.com reports.
Kam Craft (03/12): Craft (knee) did not play during the 2023 Big East Tournament final against Marquette on Saturday.
KyKy Tandy (03/12): Tandy (foot) did not play during the 2023 Big East Tournament final against Marquette on Saturday.
Souley Boum (03/11): Boum accumulated 23 points (7-17 FG, 5-8 3Pt, 4-4 FT), five rebounds and six assists across 37 minutes during Friday's 82-60 win over Creighton.
Guillermo Diaz Graham (03/10): Diaz Graham chipped in 14 points (4-8 FG, 0-2 3Pt, 6-6 FT), eight rebounds and two assists across 28 minutes during Thursday's 96-69 loss to Duke.
Kam Craft (03/10): Craft (knee) did not appear in Thursday's 89-84 win over DePaul.
Colby Jones (03/09): Jones ended Thursday's 89-84 victory over DePaul with 22 points (10-19 FG, 1-4 3Pt, 1-3 FT), six rebounds, two assists and three steals in 35 minutes.
Jack Nunge (03/09): Nunge closed Thursday's 89-84 win over DePaul with 23 points (7-14 FG, 3-4 3Pt, 6-6 FT), 10 rebounds, four assists, one block and one steal across 36 minutes.
Jamarius Burton (03/09): Burton totaled 21 points (10-15 FG, 0-1 3Pt, 1-1 FT), three rebounds, eight assists and two steals over 35 minutes during Wednesday's 89-81 victory over Georgia Tech.
Fede Federiko (03/09): Federiko finished Wednesday's 89-81 win over Georgia Tech with 19 points (7-7 FG, 5-6 FT), eight rebounds and one assist across 26 minutes.
Kam Craft (03/07): Craft (knee) is questionable to return in Thursday's Big East Tournament game, Adam Baum of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
KyKy Tandy (03/07): Tandy (foot) is not expected to be available for Xavier's next game on Wednesday, Adam Baum of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.