Preview: Saint Mary's vs. UConn

Game	Saint Mary's Gaels vs. UConn Huskies
Date:	March 19th, 2023 6:10 PM
TV:	TNT

Preview

Saint Mary's Offense vs. UConn Defense

Saint Mary's checks in at 40th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Gaels shoot 51 percent on twos and 37.1 percent on threes for a 52.7 effective field goal percentage.

UConn is ranked 21st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, UConn opponents make 45.8 percent of their twos and 30 percent of their threes for a 45.5 effective field goal percentage.

Basics

Saint Mary's offense has been struggling over the last month. The Gaels are ranked 68th in adjusted offensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 40th for the season.
The Gaels are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 78.1 inches according to KenPom.com. UConn should match up well against the Gaels’ size, with an average height of 78.3 inches.
Saint Mary's plays at a deliberate pace. The Gaels average 65 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball.
UConn can get into trouble given its tendency to commit fouls. The Huskies send their opponents to the free-throw line 39 times per 100 shot attempts. That’s one of the worst rates in the country and Saint Mary's gets to the stripe 31 times per 100 field goal attempts.
Saint Mary's has struggled at the free-throw line all season, shooting just 69 percent at the stripe this year.

Extra Possessions

The Gaels are fantastic on the offensive glass and rebound 33.3 percent of their missed shots. UConn is one of the better defensive rebounding teams in the field, grabbing 73.8 percent of opponent misses, which should negate this advantage.
Second chance points are crucial to Saint Mary's offense. The Gaels score 11.4 points off of second chances and only allow 7.3 points per game, outscoring teams by 4.1 points per game just on second chance opportunities. UConn has also been great on the glass this year, outscoring opponents by 5.8 points per game on second chances.

Shot Profile

UConn excels at preventing 3-point shot attempts. Its opponents only attempt 29 percent of their shots from 3-point range and make 29 percent of those attempts. On the year, Saint Mary's is shooting 37 from outside and attempts 37 percent of its shots from long distance.
UConn does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, CONN contests 61 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Saint Mary's excels at creating open jumpers. Only 44 percent of the Gaels’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
Saint Mary's dominates the paint. The Gaels score 32.5 points and allow 26.8 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 5.8 points per game. UConn has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 5.5 points per game in the paint.
Saint Mary's is difficult to guard because it has 3 players on the roster shooting at least 38 percent from 3-point range on over 50 perimeter attempts.
UConn is one of the best teams in the country at defending around the basket. Huskies opponents are shooting just 52 percent at the rim. Saint Mary's makes 55 percent of its shots withing five-feet which is right around Division I average.
UConn’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Huskies opponents attempt 28 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 35 percent clip. Saint Mary's offense shoots 40 percent on its mid-range attempts.

Style

UConn’s defense is unique for its ability to prevent assists. Only 41 percent of made baskets are assisted against the Huskies.
Saint Mary's is reliant on ball screen screen offense. The Gaels score 30.9 points per game out of ball screen actions at 0.89 points per play. UConn’s defense excels at defending ball screens, allowing just 0.71 points per play which should set up a key strength-on-strength matchup.

UConn Offense vs. Saint Mary's Defense

UConn checks in at 3rd nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Huskies shoot 53.4 percent on twos and 35.7 percent on threes for a 53.5 effective field goal percentage.

Saint Mary's is ranked 6th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Saint Mary's opponents make 45.6 percent of their twos and 32.5 percent of their threes for a 46.6 effective field goal percentage.

Basics

Saint Mary's defense has been struggling over the last month. The Gaels are ranked 37th in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 6th for the season.
According to KenPom, UConn ranked 312th nationally in luck, meaning that their adjusted efficiency margin stats indicate they should have a better record and have come up short in close games.
You can trust UConn at the line in a close game. The Huskies shoot 75 percent at the line for the season.

Extra Possessions

The game should be fairly turnover neutral on this side of the ball. UConn turns it over on 18.9 percent of possessions and Saint Mary's forces giveaways on 19.1 percent of possessions.
UConn does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Huskies score 15.2 points points per game off of turnovers. Saint Mary's avoids turnovers for touchdowns, allowing only 10.8 points per game off of giveaways.
The Huskies are fantastic on the offensive glass and rebound 39.2 percent of their missed shots. Saint Mary's is one of the better defensive rebounding teams in the field, grabbing 78 percent of opponent misses, which should negate this advantage.
Second chance points are crucial to UConn’s offense. The Huskies score 15.1 points off of second chances and only allow 9.4 points per game, outscoring teams by 5.8 points per game just on second chance opportunities. Saint Mary's has also been great on the glass this year, outscoring opponents by 4.1 points per game on second chances.

Shot Profile

UConn’s offensive attack is perimeter-oriented. The Huskies attempt 41 percent of their shots from 3-point range. The Huskies also make a lot of those attempts, shooting 36 percent from outside the arc. Saint Mary's matches up well against the perimeter threat and only allows its opponents to attempt 32 percent of shots from outside the arc.
Saint Mary's does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, SMC contests 68 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, UConn excels at creating open jumpers. Only 44 percent of the Huskies’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
UConn dominates the paint. The Huskies score 34.1 points and allow 28.5 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 5.5 points per game. Saint Mary's has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 5.8 points per game in the paint.
Saint Mary's is one of the best teams in the country at defending around the basket. Gaels opponents are shooting just 51 percent at the rim. UConn is usually very good at creating quality looks around the basket — finishing 60 percent of its shots withing five-feet — which sets up an interesting battle inside.
Saint Mary's defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Gaels opponents attempt 27 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 36 percent clip. UConn’s offense shoots 34 percent on its mid-range attempts.

Style

UConn is a terrific passing team that records assists on 62.6 percent of its made baskets. Saint Mary's defense is designed to minimize help and prevent assisted baskets. On the season, Saint Mary's opponents log assists on 36.4 percent of makes.
UConn’s offense is overweight on off-ball screens and cuts compared to the rest of the field and should test Saint Mary's defensive discipline off the ball. The Huskies average 12.6 points per game via cuts and off-ball screens, scoring 1.07 points per play on those actions. Saint Mary's defense excels at defending off-ball sets, allowing just 0.92 points per play.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik lists UConn as a 64-62 favorite, giving the Huskies a 58 percent chance of advancing.

SMC Personnel

#0 Logan Johnson

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 177 lbs

Distributor Pick Pocket Go-To Guy Minutes Logger Avoids Turnovers

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
14.6	4.8	3.7	110.8	24.1%	50.3%

#20 Aidan Mahaney

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 180 lbs

Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Go-To Guy Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
14.5	2.3	2	110.3	24.1%	52.7%

#44 Alex Ducas

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 220 lbs

Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
12.5	4.2	0.9	120.0	18.3%	56.2%

#11 Mitchell Saxen

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'10" | Weight: 242 lbs

Roll Man Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Gets to the Line Cut and Finish Below 65% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
11.6	7.8	1.7	111.9	21.9%	54.6%

❄️❄️❄️: Saxen is averaging 6.3 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 5.3 points below his season average.

#3 Augustas Marciulionis

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 195 lbs

Takes Tough Shots Gets to the Line

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
5.7	1.2	1.6	105.5	22.9%	46.1%

CONN Personnel

#21 Adama Sanogo

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 245 lbs

Finisher Pick and Pop Roll Man Offensive Rebounder Defensive Rebounder Go-To Guy Avoids Turnovers Cut and Finish Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
16.8	7.3	1.3	121.3	25.9%	61.6%

#24 Jordan Hawkins

Role: Movement Wing
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 195 lbs

Off Screen Shooter Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
16.1	3.9	1.4	119.5	22.9%	52%

#2 Tristen Newton

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 190 lbs

Distributor Takes Tough Shots Gets to the Line Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
10.2	4.2	4.6	112.3	21.5%	45.5%

#11 Alex Karaban

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 210 lbs

Catch and Shoot Smart Shot Selection Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
9.7	4.3	1.8	126.8	14.5%	60.2%

#32 Donovan Clingan

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 7'2" | Weight: 265 lbs

Finisher Rim Protector Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Defensive Rebounder Go-To Guy Gets to the Line Foul Prone Below 65% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
7.1	5.7	0.4	115.3	25.3%	64.9%

ATS

UConn ATS Performance

This Season

UConn is 20-11-2 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 18 of 33 UConn games (54.5%) this season.

UConn is 4-1-1 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 2 of UConn’s 6 games on neutral floors (33.3%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/11/2022	Boston University	W, 86-57	-19.5	W	9.5	139.5	OVER	3.5
11/15/2022	Buffalo	W, 84-64	-20	P	0	151.5	UNDER	-3.5
11/18/2022	UNC Wilmington	W, 86-50	-18.5	W	17.5	135.5	OVER	0.5
11/20/2022	Delaware State	W, 95-60	-33	W	2	134	OVER	21
11/24/2022	vs. Oregon	W, 83-59	-3.5	W	20.5	140	OVER	2
11/25/2022	vs. Alabama	W, 82-67	1	W	16	150.5	UNDER	-1.5
11/27/2022	vs. Iowa State	W, 71-53	-5.5	W	12.5	135	UNDER	-11
12/1/2022	Oklahoma State	W, 74-64	-9	W	1	137	OVER	1
12/7/2022	at Florida	W, 75-54	-3.5	W	17.5	146	UNDER	-17
12/10/2022	Brooklyn	W, 114-61	-37	W	16	143	OVER	32
12/17/2022	at Butler	W, 68-46	-8.5	W	13.5	139.5	UNDER	-25.5
12/20/2022	Georgetown	W, 84-73	-23	L	-12	146.5	OVER	10.5
12/28/2022	Villanova	W, 74-66	-14.5	L	-6.5	137.5	OVER	2.5
12/31/2022	at Xavier	L, 73-83	-2.5	L	-12.5	150	OVER	6
1/4/2023	at Providence	L, 61-73	-5	L	-17	142	UNDER	-8
1/7/2023	Creighton	W, 69-60	-6.5	W	2.5	141.5	UNDER	-12.5
1/11/2023	at Marquette	L, 76-82	-1	L	-7	146.5	OVER	11.5
1/15/2023	St. John's	L, 74-85	-14	L	-25	151.5	OVER	7.5
1/18/2023	at Seton Hall	L, 66-67	-4.5	L	-5.5	135	UNDER	-2
1/22/2023	Butler	W, 86-56	-14.5	W	15.5	137.5	OVER	4.5
1/25/2023	Xavier	L, 79-82	-6.5	L	-9.5	151.5	OVER	9.5
1/31/2023	at DePaul	W, 90-76	-10	W	4	145.5	OVER	20.5
2/4/2023	at Georgetown	W, 68-62	-14.5	L	-8.5	148.5	UNDER	-18.5
2/7/2023	Marquette	W, 87-72	-4.5	W	10.5	147	OVER	12
2/11/2023	at Creighton	L, 53-56	4.5	W	1.5	142.5	UNDER	-33.5
2/18/2023	Seton Hall	W, 64-55	-10.5	L	-1.5	137	UNDER	-18
2/22/2023	Providence	W, 87-69	-7.5	W	10.5	143	OVER	13
2/25/2023	at St. John's	W, 95-86	-8.5	W	0.5	151.5	OVER	29.5
3/1/2023	DePaul	W, 88-59	-17.5	W	11.5	148.5	UNDER	-1.5
3/4/2023	at Villanova	W, 71-59	-2	W	10	138.5	UNDER	-8.5
3/9/2023	vs. Providence	W, 73-66	-7	P	0	146	UNDER	-7
3/10/2023	vs. Marquette	L, 68-70	-3.5	L	-5.5	147	UNDER	-9
3/17/2023	vs. Iona	W, 87-63	-9	W	15	143.5	OVER	6.5

Head to Head

We don’t have any head-to-head games on file between these two teams.

Saint Mary's ATS Performance

This Season

Saint Mary's is 18-14-1 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 16 of 33 Saint Mary's games (48.5%) this season.

Saint Mary's is 5-2-1 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 4 of Saint Mary's 8 games on neutral floors (50%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/7/2022	Oral Roberts	W, 78-70	-9.5	L	-1.5	145	OVER	3
11/10/2022	Vermont	W, 79-53	-8	W	18	131.5	OVER	0.5
11/13/2022	North Texas	W, 63-33	-8.5	W	21.5	119.5	UNDER	-23.5
11/16/2022	Southern	W, 72-54	-19.5	L	-1.5	133.5	UNDER	-7.5
11/19/2022	Hofstra	W, 76-48	-13	W	15	139	UNDER	-15
11/23/2022	vs. Vanderbilt	W, 75-65	-6.5	W	3.5	129	OVER	11
11/25/2022	vs. Washington	L, 64-68	-11	L	-15	129	OVER	3
11/30/2022	New Mexico	L, 65-69	-10	L	-14	136	UNDER	-2
12/3/2022	vs. Houston	L, 48-53	7.5	W	2.5	115	UNDER	-14
12/7/2022	Missouri State	W, 66-46	-13	W	7	121	UNDER	-9
12/10/2022	vs. San Diego State	W, 68-61	1.5	W	8.5	126	OVER	3
12/14/2022	New Mexico State	W, 81-68	-14	L	-1	129.5	OVER	19.5
12/18/2022	Colorado State	L, 60-62	-11.5	L	-13.5	131.5	UNDER	-9.5
12/21/2022	vs. Wyoming	W, 66-54	-9.5	W	2.5	126	UNDER	-6
12/29/2022	San Diego	W, 85-58	-15.5	W	11.5	136.5	OVER	6.5
12/31/2022	at Santa Clara	W, 67-64	-5.5	L	-2.5	134	UNDER	-3
1/7/2023	Portland	W, 85-43	-16.5	W	25.5	132.5	UNDER	-4.5
1/12/2023	Loyola Marymount	W, 76-62	-13	W	1	128.5	OVER	9.5
1/14/2023	at San Francisco	W, 78-61	-7.5	W	9.5	133	OVER	6
1/19/2023	at Pepperdine	W, 73-44	-11.5	W	17.5	143	UNDER	-26
1/21/2023	Santa Clara	W, 77-58	-12	W	7	134.5	OVER	0.5
1/28/2023	at BYU	W, 57-56	-6.5	L	-5.5	129	UNDER	-16
2/2/2023	San Francisco	W, 68-59	-13.5	L	-4.5	130.5	UNDER	-3.5
2/4/2023	Gonzaga	W, 78-70	-3.5	W	4.5	141	OVER	7
2/9/2023	at Loyola Marymount	L, 74-78	-8	L	-12	129.5	OVER	22.5
2/11/2023	at Portland	W, 81-64	-11.5	W	5.5	134.5	OVER	10.5
2/16/2023	at San Diego	W, 62-59	-13	L	-10	141	UNDER	-20
2/18/2023	BYU	W, 71-65	-11	L	-5	130.5	OVER	5.5
2/23/2023	Pacific	W, 83-52	-19	W	12	137	UNDER	-2
2/25/2023	at Gonzaga	L, 68-77	5.5	L	-3.5	141	OVER	4
3/6/2023	vs. BYU	W, 76-69	-7	P	0	131.5	OVER	13.5
3/7/2023	vs. Gonzaga	L, 51-77	3.5	L	-22.5	140.5	UNDER	-12.5
3/17/2023	vs. VCU	W, 63-51	-3.5	W	8.5	122.5	UNDER	-8.5

Head to Head

We don’t have any head-to-head games on file between these two teams.

Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.

Logan Johnson (03/18): Johnson supplied 12 points (3-7 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 5-6 FT) and 10 rebounds over 40 minutes during Friday's 63-51 victory over VCU.
Alex Ducas (03/18): Ducas posted 17 points (5-13 FG, 1-6 3Pt, 6-7 FT), eight rebounds, four assists and five steals over 40 minutes during Friday's 63-51 win over VCU.
Mitchell Saxen (03/18): Saxen recorded 17 points (8-11 FG, 1-3 FT), seven rebounds, four assists, four blocks and one steal across 38 minutes during Friday's 63-51 victory over VCU.
Adama Sanogo (03/18): Sanogo closed with 28 points (13-17 FG, 2-3 FT), 13 rebounds and one block in 25 minutes during Friday's 87-63 victory over Iona.
Tristen Newton (03/11): Newton contributed seven points (2-10 FG, 0-2 3Pt, 3-5 FT), six rebounds and six assists over 32 minutes during Friday's 70-68 loss to Marquette.
Jordan Hawkins (03/11): Hawkins ended with five points (2-11 FG, 1-8 3Pt), three rebounds and two assists in 30 minutes during Friday's 70-68 loss to Marquette.
Nahiem Alleyne (03/11): Alleyne finished with 10 points (4-8 FG, 2-4 3Pt), one assist and two steals in 22 minutes during Friday's 70-68 loss to Marquette.
Adama Sanogo (03/11): Sanogo posted 19 points (8-12 FG, 0-1 3Pt, 3-4 FT), 11 rebounds and one assist over 30 minutes during Friday's 70-68 loss to Marquette.
Hassan Diarra (03/10): Diarra isn't in the starting five for Friday's game versus Marquette, Adam Bertz of The Journal Inquirer reports.
Tristen Newton (03/10): Newton is in the starting five for Friday's game versus Marquette, Gavin Keefe of The Day in New London reports.
Andre Jackson (03/09): Jackson closed with nine points (4-7 FG, 1-4 3Pt, 0-1 FT), 11 rebounds, six assists and three steals over 37 minutes during Thursday's 73-66 win over Providence.
Hassan Diarra (03/09): Diarra (abdomen) is part of the Huskies' starting lineup Thursday against Providence, according to their Twitter account.
Tristen Newton (03/09): Newton is not part of the Huskies' starting lineup Thursday against Providence, according to their Twitter account.
Donovan Clingan (03/07): Clingan will be available when Connecticut and Providence play each other Thursday, according to Gavin Keefe of The Day.
Alex Karaban (03/06): Karaban produced 16 points (6-8 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 2-2 FT), six rebounds, four assists, three blocks and one steal in 34 minutes during Saturday's 71-59 victory over Villanova.
Jordan Hawkins (03/06): Hawkins had 24 points (7-17 FG, 3-11 3Pt, 7-8 FT), four rebounds, one assist and one steal across 32 minutes during Saturday's 71-59 win over Villanova.
Hassan Diarra (03/04): Diarra (abdomen) is warming up ahead of Saturday's game against Villanova, David Borges of CT Insider reports.
Hassan Diarra (03/03): Coach Dan Hurley said Diarra (abdomen) was a full practice participant Friday and has a "decent chance" of playing in Saturday's game versus Villanova, Joe Arruda of The Hartford Courant reports.
Tristen Newton (03/02): Newton ended Wednesday's 88-59 victory over DePaul with 12 points (5-7 FG, 2-3 3Pt), five rebounds, six assists, one block and two steals over 28 minutes.
Donovan Clingan (03/02): Clingan supplied 10 points (5-8 FG), four rebounds and one block in 14 minutes during Wednesday's 88-59 victory over DePaul.
Adama Sanogo (03/02): Sanogo notched 26 points (11-14 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 3-3 FT), five rebounds, one block and two steals over 23 minutes during Wednesday's 88-59 win over DePaul.
Hassan Diarra (03/01): Diarra (abdomen) wasn't seen warming up ahead of Connecticut's tilt with DePaul, per David Borges of ConnecticutInsider.com.
Hassan Diarra (02/28): Diarra (abdomen) is a game-time decision for Tuesday's game versus DePaul, Joe Arruda of The Hartford Courant reports.
Hassan Diarra (02/27): Diarra did not take the court in Saturday's 95-86 win over St John's.
Andre Jackson (02/23): Jackson provided four points (2-3 FG), six rebounds, four assists and one steal across 34 minutes during Wednesday's 87-69 win over Providence.