Preview: TCU vs. Gonzaga

Game	TCU Horned Frogs vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Date:	March 19th, 2023 9:40 PM
TV:	TBS

Preview

TCU Offense vs. Gonzaga Defense

The Horned Frogs are ranked 46th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. TCU shoots 51.9 percent on twos and 30.6 percent on threes for a 50.2 effective field goal percentage.

Gonzaga’s defense is ranked 82nd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 50.8 percent on twos and 34.7 percent on threes for a 51.2 effective field goal percentage against the Bulldogs.

Basics

TCU plays as fast as any team in the country. The Horned Frogs average 71 possessions per game. Gonzaga also loves to play fast and averages 72 possessions per game
TCU does a great job of getting to the free-throw line. The Horned Frogs attempt 34 free throws per 100 field goal attempts. This should be an advantage for Gonzaga, which only allows 26 free throws per 100 shot attempts.

Extra Possessions

The game should be fairly turnover neutral on this side of the ball. TCU turns it over on 17.1 percent of possessions and Gonzaga forces giveaways on 19.3 percent of possessions.
TCU does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Horned Frogs score 17.5 points points per game off of turnovers. Gonzaga avoids turnovers for touchdowns, allowing only 11.0 points per game off of giveaways.
TCU is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Horned Frogs grab 32.4 percent of their missed shots. Gonzaga matches up well with TCU’s offensive rebounding prowess. The Bulldogs rebound 74.5 percent of their opponents’ misses this season.
Second chance points are crucial to TCU’s offense. The Horned Frogs score 12.7 points off of second chances and only allow 10.7 points per game, outscoring teams by 2.0 points per game just on second chance opportunities. Gonzaga has also been great on the glass this year, outscoring opponents by 2.0 points per game on second chances.

Shot Profile

TCU’s offensive attack is interior-focused. The Horned Frogs only attempt 30 percent of their shots from 3-point range. That lack of volume perimeter shooting is for the best because TCU shoots just 29 percent from long distance.
TCU dominates the paint. The Horned Frogs score 38.3 points and allow 31.3 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 7.0 points per game. Gonzaga has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 12.4 points per game in the paint.
TCU’s offense doesn’t have a single player shooting 38% or better from 3-point range with over 50 attempts.
TCU is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Horned Frogs shoot 61 percent at the rim and Gonzaga allows 58 percent shooting inside of five feet.

Style

TCU has an elite transition offense and scores 19.0 points per game in transition, while Gonzaga’s transition defense has been run of the mill and allows 10.6 points per game in transition.
TCU is one of the better passing teams in the country and 58.6 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season. On the other side, Gonzaga’s defense excels at preventing assisted field goals and forcing one-on-one play. The Bulldogs only allow their opponents to record assists on 45.2 percent of made baskets.
TCU runs a lot of off-ball actions. The Horned Frogs score 9.3 points per game out of off-ball screens and cuts at 1.08 points per play. Gonzaga’s defense is fairly average defending off the ball. Opponents score 0.94 points per play against the Bulldogs.

Gonzaga Offense vs. TCU Defense

Gonzaga checks in at 1st nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Bulldogs shoot 59.7 percent on twos and 38.7 percent on threes for a 59.1 effective field goal percentage.

TCU is ranked 28th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, TCU opponents make 49.1 percent of their twos and 30.4 percent of their threes for a 47.8 effective field goal percentage.

Basics

According to KenPom, Gonzaga is one of the “luckier” teams in the field, ranked 71st nationally in luck, meaning that they’ve won more games than their adjusted efficiency margin stats would indicate.
The Bulldogs are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 78 inches according to KenPom.com.
Gonzaga plays as fast as any team in the country. The Bulldogs average 72 possessions per game. TCU also loves to play fast and averages 71 possessions per game
Gonzaga does a great job of getting to the free-throw line. The Bulldogs attempt 34 free throws per 100 field goal attempts.

Extra Possessions

Gonzaga does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Bulldogs only turn it over on 14.7 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a TCU defense that forces giveaways on 21.9 percent of possessions.
Gonzaga does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Bulldogs score 18.3 points points per game off of turnovers.
The Bulldogs are fantastic on the offensive glass and rebound 31.3 percent of their missed shots. On the other side, TCU really struggles on the defensive glass, rebounding 69.3 percent of opponent misses, which should create a major advantage for Gonzaga on the glass.
Second chance points are crucial to Gonzaga’s offense. The Bulldogs score 12.8 points off of second chances and only allow 10.9 points per game, outscoring teams by 2.0 points per game just on second chance opportunities. TCU has also been great on the glass this year, outscoring opponents by 2.0 points per game on second chances.

Shot Profile

TCU does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, TCU contests 61 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Gonzaga’s offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 55 percent of the Bulldogs’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
Gonzaga dominates the paint. The Bulldogs score 42.9 points and allow 30.5 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 12.4 points per game. TCU has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 7.0 points per game in the paint.
Gonzaga is difficult to guard because it has 5 players on the roster shooting at least 38 percent from 3-point range on over 50 perimeter attempts.
Gonzaga is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Bulldogs shoot 67 percent at the rim and TCU allows 56 percent shooting inside of five feet.

Style

Gonzaga has an elite transition offense and scores 14.7 points per game in transition, while TCU’s transition defense has been run of the mill and allows 11.2 points per game in transition.
TCU’s defense gives up assists on 55.9 percent of made baskets which is a sign that they help too aggressively.
Gonzaga relies on post-up offense to score. The Bulldogs average 15.3 points per game out of post-up actions. That’s bad news for TCU because it struggles to defend the post. The Horned Frogs allow 0.99 points per play against post-up scorers.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik projects a 82-77 Gonzaga victory over TCU and gives the Bulldogs a 67 percent chance at picking up the win.

TCU Personnel

#1 Mike Miles

Role: Domineering Ball Handler
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 195 lbs

Go-To Guy Gets to the Line Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
17.3	2.8	2.6	107.4	25.4%	55.5%

#2 Emanuel Miller

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 217 lbs

Catch and Shoot Cut and Finish Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
12.4	6.6	1.8	107.7	20.3%	54.9%

❄️❄️❄️: Miller is averaging 7.3 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 5.1 points below his season average.

#10 Damion Baugh

Role: Unknown
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 194 lbs

Distributor Pick Pocket Minutes Logger

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
12.6	4.6	5.8	101.6	22.3%	46.6%

❄️❄️❄️: Baugh is averaging 8.7 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 3.9 points below his season average.

#21 JaKobe Coles

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 216 lbs

Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
8.6	3.9	1.2	118.5	23.2%	52.5%

#5 Chuck O'Bannon

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 215 lbs

Smart Shot Selection Avoids Turnovers Inefficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
7.5	3.4	1	112.6	17.2%	48.3%

🔥🔥🔥: O'Bannon is averaging 13 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 5.5 points above his season average.

GONZ Personnel

#2 Drew Timme

Role: Post Up Big
Height: 6'10" | Weight: 235 lbs

Finisher Roll Man Non Shooter Mega Usage Gets to the Line Efficient Shooter Below 65% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
20.9	7.3	3.2	120.6	30.0%	62.6%

#0 Julian Strawther

Role: Movement Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 205 lbs

Off Screen Shooter Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
15.1	5.9	1.3	119.0	20.2%	58.6%

#22 Anton Watson

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 225 lbs

Pick Pocket Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Below 65% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
11.3	5.8	2.4	128.7	18.0%	64%

#45 Rasir Bolton

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 185 lbs

Off the Dribble Shooter Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
10.4	1.9	2.6	117.4	18.1%	53.2%

❄️❄️❄️: Bolton is averaging 7 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 3.4 points below his season average.

#13 Malachi Smith

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 205 lbs

Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
8.7	3.6	1.5	131.6	16.7%	63.3%

ATS

Gonzaga ATS Performance

This Season

Gonzaga is 15-18-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 19 of 33 Gonzaga games (57.6%) this season.

Gonzaga is 3-6-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 3 of Gonzaga’s 9 games on neutral floors (33.3%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/7/2022	North Florida	W, 104-63	-27.5	W	13.5	158.5	OVER	8.5
11/11/2022	vs. Michigan State	W, 64-63	11.5	W	12.5	145.5	UNDER	-18.5
11/16/2022	at Texas	L, 74-93	1	L	-18	144.5	OVER	22.5
11/20/2022	Kentucky	W, 88-72	-3	W	13	155.5	OVER	4.5
11/25/2022	vs. Portland State	W, 102-78	-27.5	L	-3.5	161.5	OVER	18.5
11/25/2022	vs. Purdue	L, 66-84	-5.5	L	-23.5	152.5	UNDER	-2.5
11/27/2022	vs. Xavier	W, 88-84	-6.5	L	-2.5	161	OVER	11
12/2/2022	vs. Baylor	L, 63-64	-1.5	L	-2.5	164	UNDER	-37
12/5/2022	Kent State	W, 73-66	-15	L	-8	152	UNDER	-13
12/9/2022	Washington	W, 77-60	-15	W	2	148	UNDER	-11
12/12/2022	Northern Illinois	W, 88-67	-30	L	-9	150	OVER	5
12/17/2022	vs. Alabama	W, 100-90	-2	W	8	158	OVER	32
12/20/2022	Montana	W, 85-75	-21.5	L	-11.5	145.5	OVER	14.5
12/31/2022	Pepperdine	W, 111-88	-19.5	W	3.5	159.5	OVER	39.5
1/5/2023	at San Francisco	W, 77-75	-11	L	-9	156.5	UNDER	-4.5
1/7/2023	at Santa Clara	W, 81-76	-8	L	-3	157.5	UNDER	-0.5
1/12/2023	at BYU	W, 75-74	-6.5	L	-5.5	151.5	UNDER	-2.5
1/14/2023	Portland	W, 115-75	-18.5	W	21.5	159.5	OVER	30.5
1/19/2023	Loyola Marymount	L, 67-68	-16.5	L	-17.5	158	UNDER	-23
1/21/2023	at Pacific	W, 99-90	-17	L	-8	158	OVER	31
1/28/2023	at Portland	W, 82-67	-13.5	W	1.5	163.5	UNDER	-14.5
2/2/2023	Santa Clara	W, 88-70	-13.5	W	4.5	160	UNDER	-2
2/4/2023	at Saint Mary's	L, 70-78	3.5	L	-4.5	141	OVER	7
2/9/2023	San Francisco	W, 99-81	-13.5	W	4.5	155.5	OVER	24.5
2/11/2023	BYU	W, 88-81	-12	L	-5	155.5	OVER	13.5
2/16/2023	at Loyola Marymount	W, 108-65	-6.5	W	36.5	156	OVER	17
2/18/2023	at Pepperdine	W, 97-88	-14	L	-5	165.5	OVER	19.5
2/23/2023	San Diego	W, 97-72	-23	W	2	165	OVER	4
2/25/2023	Saint Mary's	W, 77-68	-5.5	W	3.5	141	OVER	4
3/1/2023	Chicago State	W, 104-65	-27.5	W	11.5	151.5	OVER	17.5
3/6/2023	vs. San Francisco	W, 84-73	-11.5	L	-0.5	160.5	UNDER	-3.5
3/7/2023	vs. Saint Mary's	W, 77-51	-3.5	W	22.5	140.5	UNDER	-12.5
3/17/2023	vs. Grand Canyon	W, 82-70	-15.5	L	-3.5	156.5	UNDER	-4.5

Head to Head

We don’t have any head-to-head games on file between these two teams.

TCU ATS Performance

This Season

TCU is 18-16-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 17 of 34 TCU games (50%) this season.

TCU is 2-4-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 2 of TCU’s 6 games on neutral floors (33.3%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/7/2022	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	W, 73-72	-35.5	L	-34.5	142.5	OVER	2.5
11/11/2022	Lamar	W, 77-66	-33	L	-22	135.5	OVER	7.5
11/14/2022	Northwestern State	L, 63-64	-25	L	-26	142.5	UNDER	-15.5
11/17/2022	UL Monroe	W, 95-60	-18.5	W	16.5	142	OVER	13
11/25/2022	vs. California	W, 59-48	-11.5	L	-0.5	128.5	UNDER	-21.5
11/26/2022	vs. Iowa	W, 79-66	6	W	19	149.5	UNDER	-4.5
11/30/2022	Providence	W, 75-62	-7	W	6	135	OVER	2
12/6/2022	Jackson State	W, 78-51	-23	W	4	138	UNDER	-9
12/10/2022	vs. SMU	W, 83-75	-9	L	-1	134.5	OVER	23.5
12/18/2022	Mississippi Valley State	W, 88-43	-34	W	11	134	UNDER	-3
12/21/2022	at Utah	W, 75-71	0	W	4	138	OVER	8
12/28/2022	Central Arkansas	W, 103-57	-24.5	W	21.5	151.5	OVER	8.5
12/31/2022	Texas Tech	W, 67-61	-5.5	W	0.5	140.5	UNDER	-12.5
1/4/2023	at Baylor	W, 88-87	5.5	W	6.5	142.5	OVER	32.5
1/7/2023	Iowa State	L, 67-69	-5.5	L	-7.5	132.5	OVER	3.5
1/11/2023	at Texas	L, 75-79	8	W	4	142.5	OVER	11.5
1/14/2023	Kansas State	W, 82-68	-3.5	W	10.5	145.5	OVER	4.5
1/18/2023	at West Virginia	L, 65-74	2.5	L	-6.5	144.5	UNDER	-5.5
1/21/2023	at Kansas	W, 83-60	7	W	30	145.5	UNDER	-2.5
1/24/2023	Oklahoma	W, 79-52	-6	W	21	136.5	UNDER	-5.5
1/28/2023	at Mississippi State	L, 74-81	-2.5	L	-9.5	131.5	OVER	23.5
1/31/2023	West Virginia	W, 76-72	-2.5	W	1.5	144	OVER	4
2/4/2023	at Oklahoma State	L, 73-79	1	L	-5	134.5	OVER	17.5
2/7/2023	at Kansas State	L, 61-82	4.5	L	-16.5	147	UNDER	-4
2/11/2023	Baylor	L, 68-72	1	L	-3	149	UNDER	-9
2/15/2023	at Iowa State	L, 59-70	4	L	-7	134	UNDER	-5
2/18/2023	Oklahoma State	W, 100-75	-3.5	W	21.5	136.5	OVER	38.5
2/20/2023	Kansas	L, 58-63	1	L	-4	147.5	UNDER	-26.5
2/25/2023	at Texas Tech	W, 83-82	1.5	W	2.5	143.5	OVER	21.5
3/1/2023	Texas	W, 75-73	-1.5	W	0.5	149	UNDER	-1
3/4/2023	at Oklahoma	L, 60-74	-2	L	-16	143.5	UNDER	-9.5
3/9/2023	vs. Kansas State	W, 80-67	-2	W	11	148	UNDER	-1
3/10/2023	vs. Texas	L, 60-66	2	L	-4	147	UNDER	-21
3/17/2023	vs. Arizona State	W, 72-70	-5	L	-3	141	OVER	1

Head to Head

We don’t have any head-to-head games on file between these two teams.

Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.

Anton Watson (03/18): Watson notched 14 points (6-9 FG, 2-3 3Pt), 11 rebounds, three assists, one block and two steals across 37 minutes during Friday's 82-70 victory over Grand Canyon.
Drew Timme (03/18): Timme accumulated 21 points (8-13 FG, 5-7 FT), six rebounds, three assists and three blocks in 33 minutes during Friday's 82-70 victory over Grand Canyon.
Julian Strawther (03/18): Strawther amassed 28 points (9-15 FG, 3-6 3Pt, 7-8 FT), 10 rebounds, one assist, two blocks and one steal in 34 minutes before fouling out of Friday's 82-70 win over Grand Canyon.
Mike Miles (03/18): Miles chipped in 26 points (6-15 FG, 2-5 3Pt, 12-14 FT), four rebounds, three assists and two blocks over 36 minutes during Friday's 72-70 victory over Arizona State.
Eddie Lampkin (03/13): Lampkin entered the transfer portal Monday and is set to leave TCU, Jake Weingarten of Stockrisers.com reports.
Xavier Cork (03/10): Cork contributed four points (2-4 FG), seven rebounds and one assist over 21 minutes during Thursday's 80-67 victory over Kansas State.
Chuck O'Bannon (03/10): O'Bannon closed with 22 points (7-11 FG, 4-7 3Pt, 4-5 FT), seven rebounds and one block in 28 minutes during Thursday's 80-67 victory over Kansas State.
Eddie Lampkin (03/08): Lampkin didn't travel with TCU to Kansas City for this week's Big 12 Conference tournament and has left the team to tend to a personal matter, Jamie Plunkett of FrogsToday.com reports.
Drew Timme (03/08): Timme contributed 18 points (8-10 FG, 2-3 FT), six rebounds and two assists over 20 minutes during Tuesday's 77-51 victory over Saint Mary's.
Souleymane Doumbia (03/05): Doumbia (concussion) played eight minutes during TCU's 74-60 loss Saturday at Oklahoma.
Eddie Lampkin (03/04): Lampkin (undisclosed) will be inactive for Saturday's game against Oklahoma.
Malachi Smith (03/03): Smith finished with 14 points (4-5 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 5-6 FT), nine rebounds and one steal in 28 minutes during Wednesday's 104-65 victory over Chicago State.
Rondel Walker (03/02): Walker (arm) chipped in no counting stats in one minute during Wednesday's 75-73 victory over Texas.
Efton Reid (03/02): Reid (back) closed with one rebound in two minutes during Wednesday's 104-65 win over Chicago State.
Eddie Lampkin (03/02): Lampkin (undisclosed) closed Wednesday's 75-73 win over Texas with four points (2-2 FG, 0-1 FT), five rebounds and one assist in 16 minutes.
Souleymane Doumbia (03/02): Doumbia (concussion) did not play in Wednesday's 75-73 win over Texas.
Eddie Lampkin (03/01): Lampkin (undisclosed) isn't in the starting five for Wednesday's game versus Texas.
Rondel Walker (03/01): Walker (elbow) "should be good" to play in Wednesday's game versus Texas, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
Eddie Lampkin (03/01): Lampkin (undisclosed) "should be good" to play in Wednesday's game versus Texas, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
Drew Timme (02/28): Timme told Seth Davis of The Athletic on Saturday that he'll forgo a fifth year of eligibility at Gonzaga and will end his collegiate career following the 2022-23 season. "I've done my four years," Timme said. "I'm a senior, and I'm moving on."
Souleymane Doumbia (02/27): Doumbia did not take the court in Saturday's 83-82 victory over Texas Tech due to being in concussion protocol, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports.
Efton Reid (02/25): Reid (back) won't play Saturday against St. Mary's, Theo Lawson of The Spokane Spokesman-Review reports.
JaKobe Coles (02/25): Coles ended Saturday's 83-82 victory over Texas Tech with 15 points (5-12 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 4-4 FT), five rebounds, three assists, one block and one steal over 27 minutes.
Emanuel Miller (02/25): Miller chipped in 14 points (6-10 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 1-2 FT), 12 rebounds and two assists over 34 minutes during Saturday's 83-82 victory over Texas Tech.
Mike Miles (02/25): Miles ended Saturday's 83-82 victory over Texas Tech with 24 points (8-16 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 6-7 FT) and two rebounds across 36 minutes.