Preview: Creighton vs. Baylor

Game	Creighton Bluejays vs. Baylor Bears
Date:	March 19th, 2023 7:10 PM
TV:	TBS

Preview

Creighton Offense vs. Baylor Defense

The Bluejays are ranked 28th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Creighton shoots 54.5 percent on twos and 36 percent on threes for a 54.3 effective field goal percentage.

Baylor’s defense is ranked 92nd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 53.3 percent on twos and 32.2 percent on threes for a 51.4 effective field goal percentage against the Bears.

Basics

Creighton’s offense enters the tournament on a cold streak. Over the last 30 days, the Bluejays are ranked 54th in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to 28th for the year.
Baylor’s defense needs to get back on track in the NCAA Tournament. Over the last 30 days, the Bears are ranked 155th in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to 92nd overall.
According to KenPom, Creighton ranked 329th nationally in luck, meaning that their adjusted efficiency margin stats indicate they should have a better record and have come up short in close games.
The Bluejays are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 77.9 inches according to KenPom.com.
Baylor plays a notable amount of zone defense. The Bears utilize zone defense on 11.7 percent of their defensive plays, per Synergy. That’s more than most Division I teams and they allow 0.88 points per play in zone defense. Creighton has done a great job of attacking zone defenses this year — 1.17 points per play — and that should help the Bluejays create an offensive advantage.
Creighton does a great job attacking full-court pressure defenses, scoring 1.07 points per play. Baylor’s applies full court pressure on 8.8 percent of possessions which should allow the Bluejays to create an offensive advantage.
Creighton makes 77 percent of its free throws which should come in handy in a close game.

Extra Possessions

Creighton does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Bluejays only turn it over on 16.7 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a Baylor defense that forces giveaways on 19.9 percent of possessions.

Shot Profile

Creighton’s offensive attack is perimeter-oriented. The Bluejays attempt 42 percent of their shots from 3-point range. The Bluejays also make a lot of those attempts, shooting 36 percent from outside the arc.
Creighton is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Bluejays shoot 63 percent at the rim and Baylor allows 64 percent shooting inside of five feet.

Style

Creighton is one of the better passing teams in the country and 57.8 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season. That should provide a significant advantage for the Bluejays because Baylor’s defense allows a lot of assisted field goals. BAY opponents record assists on 60.4 percent of made baskets.
Modern basketball is a ball screen game and Creighton’s offense is no exception. The Bluejays score 26.6 points per game out of ball screens and average 0.94 points per ball screen play. Baylor’s defense excels at defending ball screens, allowing just 0.70 points per play which should set up a key strength-on-strength matchup.

Baylor Offense vs. Creighton Defense

The Bears are ranked 2nd nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Baylor shoots 50.8 percent on twos and 37.2 percent on threes for a 53.1 effective field goal percentage.

Creighton’s defense is ranked 16th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 45.6 percent on twos and 34.1 percent on threes for a 47.3 effective field goal percentage against the Bluejays.

Basics

Creighton’s defense needs to get back on track in the NCAA Tournament. Over the last 30 days, the Bluejays are ranked 42nd in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to 16th overall.
Baylor does a great job of getting to the free-throw line. The Bears attempt 37 free throws per 100 field goal attempts. This should be an advantage for Creighton, which only allows 20 free throws per 100 shot attempts.
Baylor makes 75 percent of its free throws which should come in handy in a close game.

Extra Possessions

The game should be fairly turnover neutral on this side of the ball. Baylor turns it over on 18.1 percent of possessions and Creighton forces giveaways on 14.3 percent of possessions.
Baylor is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Bears grab 34.7 percent of their missed shots. Creighton matches up well with Baylor’s offensive rebounding prowess. The Bluejays rebound 76.7 percent of their opponents’ misses this season.
Second chance points are crucial to Baylor’s offense. The Bears score 13.8 points off of second chances and only allow 9.8 points per game, outscoring teams by 4.0 points per game just on second chance opportunities.

Shot Profile

Baylor’s offensive attack is perimeter-oriented. The Bears attempt 45 percent of their shots from 3-point range. The Bears also make a lot of those attempts, shooting 37 percent from outside the arc. Creighton matches up well against the perimeter threat and only allows its opponents to attempt 30 percent of shots from outside the arc.
Creighton’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Bluejays opponents attempt 33 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 36 percent clip. Baylor’s offense shoots 40 percent on its mid-range attempts.

Style

Baylor is one of the better passing teams in the country and 56.4 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season. On the other side, Creighton’s defense excels at preventing assisted field goals and forcing one-on-one play. The Bluejays only allow their opponents to record assists on 47.1 percent of made baskets.
Modern basketball is a ball screen game and Baylor’s offense is no exception. The Bears score 28.1 points per game out of ball screens and average 0.98 points per ball screen play. Creighton’s defense excels at defending ball screens, allowing just 0.72 points per play which should set up a key strength-on-strength matchup.
Baylor runs a lot of off-ball actions. The Bears score 9.6 points per game out of off-ball screens and cuts at 1.09 points per play. Creighton’s defense is fairly average defending off the ball. Opponents score 0.96 points per play against the Bluejays.
Baylor runs a lot of isolation actions. The Bears score 6.4 points per game out of isolation at 0.87 points per play. Creighton’s defense is fairly average defending isolations. Opponents score 0.83 points per isolation action (including pass-outs) against the Bluejays.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik projects a 75-74 Creighton victory over Baylor and gives the Bluejays a 50 percent chance at picking up the win.

CREI Personnel

#11 Ryan Kalkbrenner

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 7'1" | Weight: 260 lbs

Finisher Roll Man Rim Protector Non Shooter Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers Cut and Finish Efficient Shooter

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
15.4	6.1	1.2	134.6	19.0%	72.3%

#23 Trey Alexander

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 190 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
13.6	4.2	2.6	114.5	20.4%	54.7%

#55 Baylor Scheierman

Role: Movement Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 205 lbs

Off Screen Shooter Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Defensive Rebounder Takes Tough Shots Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
12.8	8.4	3.2	107.8	21.1%	53.8%

#2 Ryan Nembhard

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'0" | Weight: 170 lbs

Distributor Off the Dribble Shooter Takes Tough Shots Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
11.9	4.1	4.9	108.4	20.6%	50%

#24 Arthur Kaluma

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 225 lbs

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
11.9	5.9	1.6	100.0	23.4%	47.8%

BAY Personnel

#1 Keyonte George

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 185 lbs

Distributor Off Screen Shooter Off the Dribble Shooter Takes Tough Shots Mega Usage

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
15.8	4.2	2.8	103.4	29.8%	48.3%

❄️❄️❄️: George is averaging 6 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 9.8 points below his season average.

#10 Adam Flagler

Role: Domineering Ball Handler
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 185 lbs

Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
15.5	2.5	4.7	119.7	23.0%	52.3%

#4 LJ Cryer

Role: Movement Wing
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 190 lbs

Off Screen Shooter Mid-Range Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
14.5	2.1	2.1	116.5	20.1%	55.8%

#11 Jalen Bridges

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 225 lbs

Offensive Rebounder Smart Shot Selection Avoids Turnovers

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
10.3	5.8	1.1	124.6	17.3%	56.8%

🔥🔥🔥: Bridges is averaging 15.7 points per game over the last 3 games. That’s 5.4 points above his season average.

#13 Langston Love

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 210 lbs

Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers

Pts	Reb	Ast	ORtg	Usage	eFG%
6.6	2.2	0.8	114.6	18.6%	51.7%

ATS

Baylor ATS Performance

This Season

Baylor is 15-16-1 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 16 of 32 Baylor games (50%) this season.

Baylor is 3-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 3 of Baylor’s 6 games on neutral floors (50%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/7/2022	Mississippi Valley State	W, 117-53	-38.5	W	25.5	143	OVER	27
11/11/2022	Norfolk State	W, 87-70	-24.5	L	-7.5	144.5	OVER	12.5
11/14/2022	Northern Colorado	W, 95-62	-28	W	5	152.5	OVER	4.5
11/18/2022	vs. Virginia	L, 79-86	-4.5	L	-11.5	134.5	OVER	30.5
11/20/2022	vs. UCLA	W, 80-75	-3	W	2	152	OVER	3
11/23/2022	McNeese	W, 89-60	-32.5	L	-3.5	153	UNDER	-4
11/29/2022	at Marquette	L, 70-96	-4.5	L	-30.5	155	OVER	11
12/2/2022	vs. Gonzaga	W, 64-63	1.5	W	2.5	164	UNDER	-37
12/18/2022	vs. Washington State	W, 65-59	-11	L	-5	140	UNDER	-16
12/20/2022	Northwestern State	W, 58-48	-24	L	-14	153	UNDER	-47
12/28/2022	Nicholls	W, 85-56	-21.5	W	7.5	151.5	UNDER	-10.5
12/31/2022	at Iowa State	L, 62-77	-2	L	-17	131.5	OVER	7.5
1/4/2023	TCU	L, 87-88	-5.5	L	-6.5	142.5	OVER	32.5
1/7/2023	Kansas State	L, 95-97	-6.5	L	-8.5	147.5	OVER	44.5
1/11/2023	at West Virginia	W, 83-78	3	W	8	146.5	OVER	14.5
1/14/2023	Oklahoma State	W, 74-58	-6.5	W	9.5	138	UNDER	-6
1/17/2023	at Texas Tech	W, 81-74	1.5	W	8.5	146.5	OVER	8.5
1/21/2023	at Oklahoma	W, 62-60	-2.5	L	-0.5	142.5	UNDER	-20.5
1/23/2023	Kansas	W, 75-69	-3.5	W	2.5	149.5	UNDER	-5.5
1/28/2023	Arkansas	W, 67-64	-6.5	L	-3.5	143.5	UNDER	-12.5
1/30/2023	at Texas	L, 71-76	2.5	L	-2.5	150.5	UNDER	-3.5
2/4/2023	Texas Tech	W, 89-62	-8	W	19	145.5	OVER	5.5
2/8/2023	Oklahoma	W, 82-72	-10	P	0	140.5	OVER	13.5
2/11/2023	at TCU	W, 72-68	-1	W	3	149	UNDER	-9
2/13/2023	West Virginia	W, 79-67	-6.5	W	5.5	148	UNDER	-2
2/18/2023	at Kansas	L, 71-87	3.5	L	-12.5	153.5	OVER	4.5
2/21/2023	at Kansas State	L, 65-75	1	L	-9	148.5	UNDER	-8.5
2/25/2023	Texas	W, 81-72	-3.5	W	5.5	148.5	OVER	4.5
2/27/2023	at Oklahoma State	W, 74-68	-1.5	W	4.5	143.5	UNDER	-1.5
3/4/2023	Iowa State	L, 58-73	-7	L	-22	135.5	UNDER	-4.5
3/9/2023	vs. Iowa State	L, 72-78	-4	L	-10	134.5	OVER	15.5
3/17/2023	vs. UC Santa Barbara	W, 74-56	-10.5	W	7.5	144	UNDER	-14

Head to Head

Baylor is 1-0-0 against the spread when it plays against Creighton in recorded games since 2017. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/21/2017	vs. Creighton	W, 65-59	1.5	W	7.5	154	UNDER	-30

Creighton ATS Performance

This Season

Creighton is 19-13-1 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 15 of 33 Creighton games (45.5%) this season.

Creighton is 5-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 5 of Creighton’s 8 games on neutral floors (62.5%) this season.

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/10/2022	North Dakota	W, 96-61	-29	W	6	140.5	OVER	16.5
11/14/2022	Holy Cross	W, 94-65	-26.5	W	2.5	140	OVER	19
11/17/2022	UC Riverside	W, 80-51	-18.5	W	10.5	141.5	UNDER	-10.5
11/21/2022	vs. Texas Tech	W, 76-65	-4	W	7	131	OVER	10
11/22/2022	vs. Arkansas	W, 90-87	1.5	W	4.5	140.5	OVER	36.5
11/23/2022	vs. Arizona	L, 79-81	2.5	W	0.5	163	UNDER	-3
12/1/2022	at Texas	L, 67-72	7	W	2	139.5	UNDER	-0.5
12/4/2022	Nebraska	L, 53-63	-14.5	L	-24.5	141	UNDER	-25
12/10/2022	vs. BYU	L, 80-83	-10	L	-13	144.5	OVER	18.5
12/12/2022	vs. Arizona State	L, 71-73	-2	L	-4	137	OVER	7
12/16/2022	at Marquette	L, 58-69	4	L	-7	154	UNDER	-27
12/22/2022	Butler	W, 78-56	-8	W	14	140	UNDER	-6
12/25/2022	DePaul	W, 80-65	-16	L	-1	146.5	UNDER	-1.5
1/3/2023	Seton Hall	W, 83-61	-8.5	W	13.5	138	OVER	6
1/7/2023	at UConn	L, 60-69	6.5	L	-2.5	141.5	UNDER	-12.5
1/11/2023	at Xavier	L, 87-90	3	P	0	152.5	OVER	24.5
1/14/2023	Providence	W, 73-67	-5	W	1	146.5	UNDER	-6.5
1/17/2023	at Butler	W, 73-52	-6	W	15	140.5	UNDER	-15.5
1/25/2023	St. John's	W, 104-76	-10	W	18	152.5	OVER	27.5
1/28/2023	Xavier	W, 84-67	-5.5	W	11.5	157.5	UNDER	-6.5
2/1/2023	at Georgetown	W, 63-53	-13	L	-3	147.5	UNDER	-31.5
2/4/2023	Villanova	W, 66-61	-9	L	-4	138.5	UNDER	-11.5
2/8/2023	at Seton Hall	W, 75-62	-4	W	9	135	OVER	2
2/11/2023	UConn	W, 56-53	-4.5	L	-1.5	142.5	UNDER	-33.5
2/14/2023	at Providence	L, 86-94	-2	L	-10	141	OVER	39
2/18/2023	at St. John's	W, 77-67	-7	W	3	150	UNDER	-6
2/21/2023	Marquette	L, 71-73	-4	L	-6	150	UNDER	-6
2/25/2023	at Villanova	L, 67-79	-4	L	-16	137.5	OVER	8.5
3/1/2023	Georgetown	W, 99-59	-18.5	W	21.5	145.5	OVER	12.5
3/4/2023	at DePaul	W, 84-70	-12	W	2	146	OVER	8
3/9/2023	vs. Villanova	W, 87-74	-5	W	8	134.5	OVER	26.5
3/10/2023	vs. Xavier	L, 60-82	-3.5	L	-25.5	153	UNDER	-11
3/17/2023	vs. NC State	W, 72-63	-5	W	4	148	UNDER	-13

Head to Head

Creighton is 0-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Baylor in recorded games since 2017. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date	Opp	Result	Spread	Cover	By	Total	Over	By
11/21/2017	vs. Baylor	L, 59-65	-1.5	L	-7.5	154	UNDER	-30

Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.

Mason Miller (03/18): Head coach Greg McDermott said Saturday that he doesn't think Miller (ankle) will practice and that he's still unsure of when Miller will return to action, Joel Lorenzi of the Omaha World-Herald reports.
Ryan Kalkbrenner (03/18): Kalkbrenner produced 31 points (11-14 FG, 1-1 3Pt, 8-9 FT), seven rebounds, two assists and three blocks over 38 minutes during Friday's 72-63 win over North Carolina State.
Mason Miller (03/17): Coach Greg McDermott said imaging on Miller's ankle came back negative, Joel Lorenzi of the Omaha World-Herald reports.
Langston Love (03/17): Love (eye) has checked into Friday's matchup with UCSB, Michael Haag of Lariat Sports reports.
Langston Love (03/16): Coach Scott Drew said Baylor (eye) was able to practice Thursday but is a game-time decision for Friday's matchup with Cal-Santa Barbara, Brian Hamilton of The Athletic reports.
Langston Love (03/14): Love (eye) will undergo several practices to determine if he can play against No. 14 Cal-Santa Barbara on Friday, according to Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports.
Langston Love (03/13): Love (eye) will get a second opinion on his eye with the hope of being cleared for the NCAA Tournament, Matt Lively of KCEN Sports reports.
Ryan Nembhard (03/11): Nembhard ended with five points (2-12 FG, 1-3 3Pt), six rebounds, six assists and one block across 31 minutes during Friday's 82-60 loss to Xavier.
Baylor Scheierman (03/10): Scheierman ended with 12 points (3-8 FG, 2-6 3Pt, 4-5 FT), 12 rebounds and nine assists over 32 minutes during Thursday's 87-74 victory over Villanova.
Ryan Kalkbrenner (03/10): Kalkbrenner had 21 points (9-12 FG, 3-3 FT), three rebounds, one assist and two blocks in 36 minutes during Thursday's 87-74 win over Villanova.
Arthur Kaluma (03/10): Kaluma posted 18 points (5-8 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 6-8 FT), two rebounds, four assists, one block and one steal in 30 minutes during Thursday's 87-74 victory over Villanova.
Langston Love (03/08): Love (eye) will sit out the 2023 Big 12 Tournament, according to Darby Brown of KWTX News 10.
Keyonte George (03/04): George chipped in seven points (3-10 FG, 1-7 3Pt, 0-2 FT), one rebound and two assists across 26 minutes during Saturday's 73-58 loss to Iowa State.
Langston Love (03/04): Love (eye) is out for Saturday's game against Iowa State and is day-to-day moving forward.
Langston Love (03/04): Coach Scott Drew said Love (eye) is a game-time decision for Saturday's game versus Iowa State, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
Keyonte George (03/02): George (ankle) is a game-time decision for Saturday's game versus Iowa State, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
Ryan Nembhard (03/02): Nembhard amassed 10 points (4-7 FG, 2-4 3Pt), two rebounds, six assists and two steals over 25 minutes during Wednesday's 99-59 victory over Georgetown.
LJ Cryer (02/28): Cryer notched 15 points (5-15 FG, 3-10 3Pt, 2-2 FT), three rebounds and two assists in 40 minutes during Monday's 74-68 victory over Oklahoma State.
Langston Love (02/28): Love (eye) suffered an eye injury during Monday's game against Oklahoma State, John Werner of the Waco Tribune-Herald reports.
Langston Love (02/27): Love will start for Baylor on Monday night against Oklahoma State, per Cody Nagel of 247Sports.com.
Keyonte George (02/26): George (ankle) has been ruled out for Monday's game against Oklahoma State.
Jalen Bridges (02/26): Bridges finished with 17 points (6-10 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 4-4 FT), eight rebounds, four blocks and two steals over 34 minutes during Saturday's 81-72 win over Texas.
Trey Alexander (02/26): Alexander finished with eight points (3-11 FG, 1-5 3Pt, 1-2 FT), four rebounds, two assists and one steal across 30 minutes during Saturday's 79-67 loss to Villanova.
Ryan Kalkbrenner (02/26): Kalkbrenner racked up 18 points (7-9 FG, 4-4 FT), five rebounds and two blocks over 33 minutes during Saturday's 79-67 loss to Villanova.
Langston Love (02/25): Love registered 11 points (4-7 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 1-3 FT) and three rebounds over 22 minutes during Saturday's 81-72 victory over Texas.