Preview: Wisconsin vs. Baylor

Game Wisconsin Badgers vs. Baylor Bears
Date: March 21st, 2021 2:40 PM
TV: CBS
Spread: BAY -6.5 Open -6
Total: 136.5 Open: 138.5

Preview

Wisconsin Offense vs. Baylor Defense

The Badgers are ranked 30th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Wisconsin shoots 46.6 percent on twos and 36.5 percent on threes for a 49.9 effective field goal percentage.

Baylor’s defense is ranked 34th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 48.3 percent on twos and 33.2 percent on threes for a 48.9 effective field goal percentage against the Bears.

Basics
  • Baylor’s defense needs to get back on track in the NCAA Tournament. Over the last 30 days, the Bears are ranked 87th in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to 34th overall.
  • Wisconsin is underseeded according to efficiency metrics. The 9th seeded Badgers are ranked 13th nationally per Bart Torvik. Their computer numbers suggest they should be closer to a 3 or 4 seed.
  • Wisconsin is one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, averaging 2.37 years of experience weighted by minutes played, per KenPom.com.
  • According to KenPom, Wisconsin ranked 272nd nationally in luck, meaning that their adjusted efficiency margin stats indicate they should have a better record and have come up short in close games.
  • The Badgers are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 77.99 inches according to KenPom.com.
  • The Badgers have a notable size advantage on the inside, their power forwards and centers rank in the 95th percentile in height compared to Baylor’s bigs which rank in the 28th percentile.
  • Wisconsin plays at a deliberate pace. The Badgers average 66 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball.
  • Wisconsin makes 77 percent of its free throws which should come in handy in a close game.
Extra Possessions
  • Wisconsin does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Badgers only turn it over on 13.6 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a Baylor defense that forces giveaways on 24.8 percent of possessions.
Shot Profile
  • Wisconsin’s offensive attack is perimeter-oriented. The Badgers attempt 41 percent of their shots from 3-point range. The Badgers also make a lot of those attempts, shooting 35 percent from outside the arc.
  • Baylor does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, BAY contests 57 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Wisconsin’s offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 57 percent of the Badgers’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • Wisconsin is a tough scout because its bigs can stretch the floor. The Badgers have one big with at least 75 3-point attempts including Micah Potter.
  • Wisconsin’s offense is heavy on mid-range jumpers. The Badgers attempt 27 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 37 percent clip.
  • Baylor’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Bears opponents attempt 27 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 31 percent clip. Wisconsin’s offense shoots 37 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Wisconsin has one of the most dominant post-up offenses in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 11.8 points per game on 0.88 points per post-up play. That should be a mismatch against a Baylor team that allows 0.93 points per post-up play.

Baylor Offense vs. Wisconsin Defense

The Bears are ranked 3rd nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Baylor shoots 53.7 percent on twos and 40.8 percent on threes for a 56.6 effective field goal percentage.

Wisconsin’s defense is ranked 14th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 46.6 percent on twos and 33.5 percent on threes for a 47.9 effective field goal percentage against the Badgers.

Basics
  • Wisconsin’s defense needs to get back on track in the NCAA Tournament. Over the last 30 days, the Badgers are ranked 69th in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to 14th overall.
  • According to KenPom, Baylor is one of the “luckier” teams in the field, ranked 69th nationally in luck, meaning that they’ve won more games than their adjusted efficiency margin stats would indicate.
Extra Possessions
  • Baylor does a great job of valuing the basketball, turnovers on just 16.8 percent of possessions, and Wisconsin’s defense doesn’t prioritize forcing giveaways. The Badgers only force giveaways on 17.3 percent of opponent possessions, so expect a low turnover performance by Baylor’s offense.
  • Baylor does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Bears score 21.4 points points per game off of turnovers. Wisconsin avoids turnovers for touchdowns, allowing only 9.1 points per game off of giveaways.
  • Baylor is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Bears grab 36.8 percent of their missed shots. Wisconsin matches up well with Baylor’s offensive rebounding prowess. The Badgers rebound 74.8 percent of their opponents’ misses this season.
  • Second chance points are crucial to Baylor’s offense. The Bears score 14.6 points off of second chances and only allow 9.9 points per game, outscoring teams by 4.7 points per game just on second chance opportunities.
Shot Profile
  • Wisconsin does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, WIS contests 60 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Baylor’s offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 57 percent of the Bears’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • Baylor dominates the paint. The Bears score 35.7 points and allow 28.9 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 6.8 points per game. Wisconsin has struggled inside this year and has been outscored by 3.7 points per game in the paint.
  • Baylor is difficult to guard because it has 5 players on the roster shooting at least 38 percent from 3-point range on over 50 perimeter attempts.
  • Baylor is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Bears shoot 62 percent at the rim and Wisconsin allows 56 percent shooting inside of five feet.
  • Wisconsin’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Badgers opponents attempt 30 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 35 percent clip. Baylor’s offense shoots 38 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Baylor loves to push the ball in transition. An impressive 17.4 percent of BAY’s offensive plays are in transition and those transition plays create 14.3 points per game. Wisconsin’s defense does a great job of limiting transition opportunities and only allows 8.6 points per game in transition.
  • Baylor’s offense is built around the ball screen and averages 27.2 points per game out of ball screens at 0.96 points per ball screen play. Wisconsin’s defense is fairly average containing ball screen looks, allowing 0.83 points per ball screen play.
  • Baylor runs more isolation sets than the average Division I team. The Bears score 8.0 points per game out of ioslations at 0.93 points per play. Wisconsin’s defense excels at defending one-on-one, allowing just 0.61 points per isolation play.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik projects a 71-67 Baylor win over Wisconsin and gives the Bears a 65 percent chance at picking up the victory.

WIS Personnel

#0 D'Mitrik Trice

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'0" | Weight: 184 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
13.9 3.4 4 106.8 23.8% 49.9%

#11 Micah Potter

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'10" | Weight: 248 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Stretch Big Man Pick and Pop Roll Man Defensive Rebounder Mega Usage Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.5 5.9 1.4 116.5 28.0% 57.3%

#34 Brad Davison

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 206 lbs

Poor Finisher Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10 3.5 2.4 108.0 18.1% 46.2%
🔥🔥🔥: Davison is averaging 15.2 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 5.2 points above his season average.

#2 Aleem Ford

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 217 lbs

Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.7 4.2 1.1 103.0 18.3% 50.2%

#35 Nate Reuvers

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'11" | Weight: 235 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Stretch Big Man Pick and Pop Roll Man Mid-Range Specialist Rim Protector Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.3 3.3 0.7 96.6 23.4% 45.8%

BAY Personnel

#12 Jared Butler

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 195 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Go-To Guy Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
16.6 3.3 4.7 115.2 27.3% 56.9%

#31 MaCio Teague

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 195 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
15.6 4.1 1.6 125.2 20.3% 56.1%

#45 Davion Mitchell

Role: Domineering Ball Handler
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 205 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
14.2 2.6 5.3 122.3 20.9% 63.1%

#10 Adam Flagler

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 180 lbs

Transition Scorer Corner 3-Point Specialist Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9 2.4 1.4 127.4 17.4% 57.5%

#24 Matthew Mayer

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 225 lbs

Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Defensive Rebounder Go-To Guy Efficient Shooter Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.2 3.8 1 112.6 25.0% 56.8%

ATS

Baylor ATS Performance

This Season

Baylor is 17-10-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 16 of 27 Baylor games (59.3%) this season.

Baylor is 5-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 5 of Baylor’s 8 games on neutral floors (62.5%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/28/2020 vs. Louisiana W, 112-82 -20 W 10 147.5 OVER 46.5
11/29/2020 vs. Washington W, 86-52 -11 W 23 149.5 UNDER -11.5
12/2/2020 vs. Illinois W, 82-69 -5.5 W 7.5 144.5 OVER 6.5
12/9/2020 Stephen F. Austin W, 83-52 -23.5 W 7.5 151.5 UNDER -16.5
12/19/2020 at Kansas State W, 100-69 -20.5 W 10.5 136.5 OVER 32.5
12/21/2020 Arkansas-Pine Bluff W, 99-42 -42.5 W 14.5 142 UNDER -1
12/29/2020 Central Arkansas W, 93-56 -33.5 W 3.5 155.5 UNDER -6.5
12/30/2020 Alcorn State W, 105-76 -44 L -15 148 OVER 33
1/2/2021 at Iowa State W, 76-65 -15.5 L -4.5 148.5 UNDER -7.5
1/6/2021 Oklahoma W, 76-61 -11.5 W 3.5 151 UNDER -14
1/9/2021 at TCU W, 67-49 -12.5 W 5.5 144 UNDER -28
1/16/2021 at Texas Tech W, 68-60 -5 W 3 138.5 UNDER -10.5
1/18/2021 Kansas W, 77-69 -9 L -1 139.5 OVER 6.5
1/23/2021 at Oklahoma State W, 81-66 -9 W 6 145.5 OVER 1.5
1/27/2021 Kansas State W, 107-59 -24.5 W 23.5 136.5 OVER 29.5
1/30/2021 Auburn W, 84-72 -14.5 L -2.5 154 OVER 2
2/2/2021 at Texas W, 83-69 -6 W 8 144.5 OVER 7.5
2/23/2021 Iowa State W, 77-72 -24 L -19 147.5 OVER 1.5
2/27/2021 at Kansas L, 58-71 -5 L -18 142 UNDER -13
3/2/2021 at West Virginia W, 94-89 -4.5 W 0.5 149.5 OVER 33.5
3/4/2021 Oklahoma State W, 81-70 -12 L -1 149.5 OVER 1.5
3/7/2021 Texas Tech W, 88-73 -8.5 W 6.5 137.5 OVER 23.5
3/11/2021 vs. Kansas State W, 74-68 -20 L -14 137 OVER 5
3/12/2021 vs. Oklahoma State L, 74-83 -9.5 L -18.5 151 OVER 6
3/19/2021 vs. Hartford W, 79-55 -26 L -2 140.5 UNDER -6.5
3/21/2021 vs. Wisconsin W, 76-63 -6.5 W 6.5 137 OVER 2
3/27/2021 vs. Villanova W, 62-51 -7.5 W 3.5 142.5 UNDER -29.5

Head to Head

Baylor is 2-0-0 against the spread when it plays against Wisconsin in recorded games since 2017. The over has hit in 1 out of 2 recorded head-to-head games (50%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/20/2017 vs. Wisconsin W, 70-65 1 W 6 135.5 UNDER -0.5
3/21/2021 vs. Wisconsin W, 76-63 -6.5 W 6.5 137 OVER 2

Wisconsin ATS Performance

This Season

Wisconsin is 15-16-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 14 of 31 Wisconsin games (45.2%) this season.

Wisconsin is 1-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 3 of Wisconsin’s 4 games on neutral floors (75%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 Eastern Illinois W, 77-67 -20 L -10 137 OVER 7
11/27/2020 Arkansas-Pine Bluff W, 92-58 -33.5 W 0.5 126.5 OVER 23.5
12/1/2020 Green Bay W, 82-42 -24.5 W 15.5 148.5 UNDER -24.5
12/4/2020 at Marquette L, 65-67 -4.5 L -6.5 138 UNDER -6
12/9/2020 Rhode Island W, 73-62 -9.5 W 1.5 137.5 UNDER -2.5
12/15/2020 Loyola (Chi) W, 77-63 -9.5 W 4.5 132.5 OVER 7.5
12/19/2020 Louisville W, 85-48 -3.5 W 33.5 132.5 OVER 0.5
12/22/2020 Nebraska W, 67-53 -17 L -3 141.5 UNDER -21.5
12/25/2020 at Michigan State W, 85-76 -1.5 W 7.5 140 OVER 21
12/28/2020 Maryland L, 64-70 -9.5 L -15.5 135.5 UNDER -1.5
12/31/2020 Minnesota W, 71-59 -8 W 4 143 UNDER -13
1/7/2021 Indiana W, 80-73 -7.5 L -0.5 128.5 OVER 24.5
1/12/2021 at Michigan L, 54-77 3.5 L -19.5 134 UNDER -3
1/15/2021 at Rutgers W, 60-54 -2.5 W 3.5 133.5 UNDER -19.5
1/20/2021 Northwestern W, 68-52 -10.5 W 5.5 136 UNDER -16
1/23/2021 Ohio State L, 62-74 -5 L -17 133.5 OVER 2.5
1/27/2021 at Maryland W, 61-55 -3.5 W 2.5 130.5 UNDER -14.5
1/30/2021 at Penn State L, 71-81 -4 L -14 138.5 OVER 13.5
2/2/2021 Penn State W, 72-56 -8.5 W 7.5 138.5 UNDER -10.5
2/6/2021 at Illinois L, 60-75 4 L -11 136.5 UNDER -1.5
2/10/2021 at Nebraska W, 61-48 -12 W 1 137 UNDER -28
2/14/2021 Michigan L, 59-67 0 L -8 133.5 UNDER -7.5
2/18/2021 Iowa L, 62-77 1.5 L -13.5 145 UNDER -6
2/21/2021 at Northwestern W, 68-51 -6 W 11 132.5 UNDER -13.5
2/27/2021 Illinois L, 69-74 -4.5 L -9.5 135.5 OVER 7.5
3/2/2021 at Purdue L, 69-73 2 L -2 129.5 OVER 12.5
3/7/2021 at Iowa L, 73-77 7.5 W 3.5 142.5 OVER 7.5
3/11/2021 vs. Penn State W, 75-74 -6 L -5 134 OVER 15
3/12/2021 vs. Iowa L, 57-62 4.5 L -0.5 145.5 UNDER -26.5
3/19/2021 vs. North Carolina W, 85-62 1.5 W 24.5 137.5 OVER 9.5
3/21/2021 vs. Baylor L, 63-76 6.5 L -6.5 137 OVER 2

Head to Head

Wisconsin is 0-2-0 against the spread when it plays against Baylor in recorded games since 2017. The over has hit in 1 out of 2 recorded head-to-head games (50%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/20/2017 vs. Baylor L, 65-70 -1 L -6 135.5 UNDER -0.5
3/21/2021 vs. Baylor L, 63-76 6.5 L -6.5 137 OVER 2
Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Adam Flagler (03/27): Flagler posted a team-high 16 points (4-6 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 6-6 FT), three rebounds, one assist, and a steal in the win over Villanova on Saturday.
  • Davion Mitchell (03/27): Mitchell had 14 points (7-13 FG, 0-3 3Pt), two assists, two steals, one rebound, and a block in the Sweet Sixteen win over Villanova on Saturday
  • Micah Potter (03/27): Potter announced Wednesday via his personal Twitter account that he has elected to forgo his remaining year of eligibility at Wisconsin to pursue professional opportunities.
  • Nate Reuvers (03/26): Reuvers placed his name in the NCAA's transfer portal Friday and is expected to leave Wisconsin as a graduate transfer, Jeff Borzello of ESPN.com reports.
  • Trevor Anderson (03/25): Anderson is in the transfer portal, Josh Schafer of 247Sports.com reports.
  • Tyler Wahl (03/22): Wahl recorded four points (1-1 FG, 2-2 FT), three rebounds, one assist and one block over 22 minutes in Sunday's 76-63 loss to Baylor.
  • Aleem Ford (03/22): Ford tallied eight points (3-5 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 1-2 FT) and five rebounds over 29 minutes in Sunday's 76-63 loss to Baylor.
  • Brad Davison (03/22): Davison totaled eight points (3-11 FG, 2-6 3Pt), four assists and three rebounds over 38 minutes in Sunday's 76-63 loss to Baylor.
  • Nate Reuvers (03/22): Reuvers generated 11 points (5-7 FG, 1-1 3Pt), four rebounds, one assist and one block over 18 minutes in Sunday's 76-63 loss to Baylor.
  • D'Mitrik Trice (03/22): Trice compiled 12 points (5-17 FG, 2-8 3Pt), four assists and two rebounds over 37 minutes in Sunday's 76-63 loss to Baylor.
  • Jonathan Davis (03/22): Davis posted 10 points (4-5 FG, 1-1 3Pt, 1-1 FT) and two rebounds over 24 minutes in Sunday's 76-63 loss to Baylor.
  • Micah Potter (03/22): Potter recorded 10 points (4-9 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 1-2 FT), 10 rebounds, three assists and three blocks over 27 minutes in Sunday's 76-63 loss to Baylor.
  • Brad Davison (03/20): Davison posted 29 points (10-15 FG, 5-7 3Pt, 4-4 FT), six rebounds and one assist over 37 minutes in Friday's 85-62 win over North Carolina.
  • D'Mitrik Trice (03/13): Trice tallied 19 points (8-17 FG, 3-7 3Pt), two rebounds and two assists over 38 minutes in Friday's 62-57 loss to Iowa.
  • Brad Davison (03/12): Davison tallied 15 points (3-7 FG, 3-7 3Pt, 6-6 FT), five assists and two rebounds over 34 minutes in Thursday's 75-74 win over Penn State.
  • Aleem Ford (03/12): Ford recorded 17 points (6-7 FG, 5-6 3Pt) and two rebounds over 29 minutes in Thursday's 75-74 win over Penn State.
  • Ben Carlson (03/11): Carlson (upper body) is in uniform for Thursday's game against Penn State, Jeff Potrykus of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
  • Davion Mitchell (03/09): Mitchell was named the 2020-21 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year on Monday.
  • Micah Potter (03/08): Potter tallied 23 points (9-12 FG, 4-6 3Pt, 1-1 FT), two assists, one rebound and one block over 26 minutes in Sunday's 77-73 loss to Iowa.
  • MaCio Teague (03/08): Teague had 35 points (11-16 FG, 10-12 3Pt, 3-4 FT), three rebounds, an assist and a steal across 36 minutes in Sunday's 88-73 victory over Texas Tech.
  • Aleem Ford (03/03): Ford posted 11 points (4-9 FG, 1-4 3Pt, 2-2 FT), two rebounds and one assist over 28 minutes in Tuesday's 73-69 loss to Purdue.
  • Nate Reuvers (03/03): Reuvers logged 11 points (5-10 FG, 0-3 3Pt, 1-3 FT), two rebounds and two blocks over 25 minutes in Tuesday's 73-69 loss to Purdue.
  • Brad Davison (03/03): Davison recorded 15 points (4-12 FG, 3-8 3Pt, 4-6 FT), three rebounds and three assists over 38 minutes in Tuesday's 73-69 loss to Purdue.
  • MaCio Teague (03/03): Teague notched 11 points (5-11 FG, 1-7 3Pt), four rebounds, and two assists in the win over West Virginia on Tuesday.
  • Matthew Mayer (03/03): Mayer came off the bench and provided 18 points (7-12 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 1-1 FT), five rebounds, and four steals in the win over West Virginia on Tuesday.