Preview: Villanova vs. Baylor

Game Villanova Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears
Date: March 27th, 2021 5:15 PM
TV: CBS
Spread: BAY -7.5 Open -6.5
Total: 142.5 Open 139

Preview

Villanova Offense vs. Baylor Defense

The Wildcats are ranked 7th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Villanova shoots 53.4 percent on twos and 35.3 percent on threes for a 53.2 effective field goal percentage.

Baylor’s defense is ranked 34th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 48.3 percent on twos and 33.2 percent on threes for a 48.9 effective field goal percentage against the Bears.

Basics
  • Villanova’s offense enters the tournament on a cold streak. Over the last 30 days, the Wildcats are ranked 41st in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to 7th for the year.
  • Baylor’s defense needs to get back on track in the NCAA Tournament. Over the last 30 days, the Bears are ranked 87th in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to 34th overall.
  • Villanova is underseeded according to efficiency metrics. The 5th seeded Wildcats are ranked 14th nationally per Bart Torvik. Their computer numbers suggest they should be closer to a 3 or 4 seed.
  • The Wildcats are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 77.95 inches according to KenPom.com.
  • The Wildcats have a notable size advantage on the inside, their power forwards and centers rank in the 73rd percentile in height compared to Baylor’s bigs which rank in the 28th percentile.
  • Villanova plays at a deliberate pace. The Wildcats average 66 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball.
  • Villanova makes 76 percent of its free throws which should come in handy in a close game.
Extra Possessions
  • Villanova does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Wildcats only turn it over on 13.7 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a Baylor defense that forces giveaways on 24.8 percent of possessions.
  • Second chance points are crucial to Villanova’s offense. The Wildcats score 10.6 points off of second chances and only allow 7.4 points per game, outscoring teams by 3.2 points per game just on second chance opportunities. Baylor has also been great on the glass this year, outscoring opponents by 4.7 points per game on second chances.
Shot Profile
  • Villanova’s offensive attack is perimeter-oriented. The Wildcats attempt 44 percent of their shots from 3-point range. The Wildcats also make a lot of those attempts, shooting 36 percent from outside the arc.
  • Baylor does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, BAY contests 57 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Villanova’s offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 58 percent of the Wildcats’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • Villanova is a tough scout because its bigs can stretch the floor. The Wildcats have one big with at least 75 3-point attempts including Jeremiah Robinson-Earl.
  • Villanova is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Wildcats shoot 62 percent at the rim and Baylor allows 60 percent shooting inside of five feet.
  • Baylor’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Bears opponents attempt 27 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 31 percent clip. Villanova’s offense shoots 37 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Villanova is one of the better passing teams in the country and 57.1 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season.
  • Villanova has one of the most dominant post-up offenses in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 11.5 points per game on 1.02 points per post-up play. That should be a mismatch against a Baylor team that allows 0.93 points per post-up play.
  • Villanova runs more isolation sets than the average Division I team. The Wildcats score 6.5 points per game out of ioslations at 0.85 points per play. Baylor’s defense excels at defending one-on-one, allowing just 0.68 points per isolation play.

Baylor Offense vs. Villanova Defense

Baylor checks in at 3rd nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Bears shoot 53.7 percent on twos and 40.8 percent on threes for a 56.6 effective field goal percentage.

Villanova is ranked 71st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Villanova opponents make 50.7 percent of their twos and 34.3 percent of their threes for a 51 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
  • According to KenPom, Baylor is one of the “luckier” teams in the field, ranked 69th nationally in luck, meaning that they’ve won more games than their adjusted efficiency margin stats would indicate.
Extra Possessions
  • Baylor does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Bears score 21.4 points points per game off of turnovers. Villanova avoids turnovers for touchdowns, allowing only 9.0 points per game off of giveaways.
  • The Bears are fantastic on the offensive glass and rebound 36.8 percent of their missed shots. Villanova is one of the better defensive rebounding teams in the field, grabbing 74.2 percent of opponent misses, which should negate this advantage.
  • Second chance points are crucial to Baylor’s offense. The Bears score 14.6 points off of second chances and only allow 9.9 points per game, outscoring teams by 4.7 points per game just on second chance opportunities. Villanova has also been great on the glass this year, outscoring opponents by 3.2 points per game on second chances.
Shot Profile
  • Villanova allows opponents to attempt 40 percent of their shots from 3-point range. VILL opponents are shooting 34 percent from 3-point range while Baylor is shooting 41 percent from outside and attempts 39 percent of its shots from long distance.
  • Villanova does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, VILL contests 57 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Baylor’s offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 58 percent of the Bears’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • Baylor dominates the paint. The Bears score 35.7 points and allow 28.9 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 6.8 points per game. Villanova has struggled inside this year and has been outscored by 0.5 points per game in the paint.
  • Baylor is difficult to guard because it has 5 players on the roster shooting at least 38 percent from 3-point range on over 50 perimeter attempts.
  • Baylor is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Bears shoot 62 percent at the rim and Villanova allows 57 percent shooting inside of five feet.
Style
  • Baylor has an elite transition offense and scores 14.3 points per game in transition, while Villanova’s transition defense has been run of the mill and allows 10.4 points per game in transition.
  • Villanova’s defense is unique for its ability to prevent assists. Only 48.9 percent of made baskets are assisted against the Wildcats.
  • Baylor’s offense is overweight on off-ball screens and cuts compared to the rest of the field and should test Villanova’s defensive discipline off the ball. The Bears average 8.6 points per game via cuts and off-ball screens, scoring 1.04 points per play on those actions. Villanova’s defense struggles to defend against these types of sets, allowing 1.01 points per play, which should be a disadvantage against the Bears.
  • Baylor trusts its players to create in one-on-one situations and scores 8.0 points per game out of iso actions and average 0.93 points per isolation play.

Bottom Line

According to Bart Torvik, Baylor is a 74-70 favorite with a 67 percent chance of advancing.

VILL Personnel

#24 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 230 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Stretch Big Man Pick and Pop Roll Man Mid-Range Specialist Isolation Scorer Defensive Rebounder Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
15.7 8.5 2.2 114.0 24.2% 53.4%

#5 Justin Moore

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 210 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Isolation Scorer Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.9 4.1 3 108.5 21.3% 51.5%

#23 Jermaine Samuels

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 230 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12 6.4 2.5 124.8 20.8% 54.4%
🔥🔥🔥: Samuels is averaging 16.6 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 4.6 points above his season average.

#2 Collin Gillespie

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 190 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Ball Screen Creator Distributor Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
14 3.2 4.6 119.0 22.1% 52.6%

#14 Caleb Daniels

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 210 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Corner 3-Point Specialist Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.6 2.2 1.2 101.4 20.0% 52.9%

BAY Personnel

#12 Jared Butler

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 195 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Go-To Guy Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
16.6 3.3 4.7 115.2 27.3% 56.9%

#31 MaCio Teague

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 195 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
15.6 4.1 1.6 125.2 20.3% 56.1%

#45 Davion Mitchell

Role: Domineering Ball Handler
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 205 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
14.2 2.6 5.3 122.3 20.9% 63.1%

#10 Adam Flagler

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 180 lbs

Transition Scorer Corner 3-Point Specialist Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9 2.4 1.4 127.4 17.4% 57.5%

#24 Matthew Mayer

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 225 lbs

Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Defensive Rebounder Go-To Guy Efficient Shooter Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.2 3.8 1 112.6 25.0% 56.8%

ATS

Baylor ATS Performance

This Season

Baylor is 17-10-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 16 of 27 Baylor games (59.3%) this season.

Baylor is 5-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 5 of Baylor’s 8 games on neutral floors (62.5%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/28/2020 vs. Louisiana W, 112-82 -20 W 10 147.5 OVER 46.5
11/29/2020 vs. Washington W, 86-52 -11 W 23 149.5 UNDER -11.5
12/2/2020 vs. Illinois W, 82-69 -5.5 W 7.5 144.5 OVER 6.5
12/9/2020 Stephen F. Austin W, 83-52 -23.5 W 7.5 151.5 UNDER -16.5
12/19/2020 at Kansas State W, 100-69 -20.5 W 10.5 136.5 OVER 32.5
12/21/2020 Arkansas-Pine Bluff W, 99-42 -42.5 W 14.5 142 UNDER -1
12/29/2020 Central Arkansas W, 93-56 -33.5 W 3.5 155.5 UNDER -6.5
12/30/2020 Alcorn State W, 105-76 -44 L -15 148 OVER 33
1/2/2021 at Iowa State W, 76-65 -15.5 L -4.5 148.5 UNDER -7.5
1/6/2021 Oklahoma W, 76-61 -11.5 W 3.5 151 UNDER -14
1/9/2021 at TCU W, 67-49 -12.5 W 5.5 144 UNDER -28
1/16/2021 at Texas Tech W, 68-60 -5 W 3 138.5 UNDER -10.5
1/18/2021 Kansas W, 77-69 -9 L -1 139.5 OVER 6.5
1/23/2021 at Oklahoma State W, 81-66 -9 W 6 145.5 OVER 1.5
1/27/2021 Kansas State W, 107-59 -24.5 W 23.5 136.5 OVER 29.5
1/30/2021 Auburn W, 84-72 -14.5 L -2.5 154 OVER 2
2/2/2021 at Texas W, 83-69 -6 W 8 144.5 OVER 7.5
2/23/2021 Iowa State W, 77-72 -24 L -19 147.5 OVER 1.5
2/27/2021 at Kansas L, 58-71 -5 L -18 142 UNDER -13
3/2/2021 at West Virginia W, 94-89 -4.5 W 0.5 149.5 OVER 33.5
3/4/2021 Oklahoma State W, 81-70 -12 L -1 149.5 OVER 1.5
3/7/2021 Texas Tech W, 88-73 -8.5 W 6.5 137.5 OVER 23.5
3/11/2021 vs. Kansas State W, 74-68 -20 L -14 137 OVER 5
3/12/2021 vs. Oklahoma State L, 74-83 -9.5 L -18.5 151 OVER 6
3/19/2021 vs. Hartford W, 79-55 -26 L -2 140.5 UNDER -6.5
3/21/2021 vs. Wisconsin W, 76-63 -6.5 W 6.5 137 OVER 2
3/27/2021 vs. Villanova W, 62-51 -7.5 W 3.5 142.5 UNDER -29.5

Head to Head

Baylor is 2-0-0 against the spread when it plays against Villanova in recorded games since 2019. The over has hit in 1 out of 2 recorded head-to-head games (50%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/24/2019 vs. Villanova W, 87-78 1.5 W 10.5 139 OVER 26
3/27/2021 vs. Villanova W, 62-51 -7.5 W 3.5 142.5 UNDER -29.5

Villanova ATS Performance

This Season

Villanova is 14-11-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 14 of 25 Villanova games (56%) this season.

Villanova is 4-4-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 5 of Villanova’s 8 games on neutral floors (62.5%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 vs. Boston College W, 76-67 -14.5 L -5.5 141.5 OVER 1.5
11/26/2020 vs. Arizona State W, 83-74 -6 W 3 157 UNDER 0
11/28/2020 vs. Virginia Tech L, 73-81 -8.5 L -16.5 137.5 OVER 16.5
12/1/2020 vs. Hartford W, 87-53 -26.5 W 7.5 138.5 OVER 1.5
12/6/2020 at Texas W, 68-64 1.5 W 5.5 133 UNDER -1
12/11/2020 at Georgetown W, 76-63 -11.5 W 1.5 142.5 UNDER -3.5
12/16/2020 Butler W, 85-66 -13.5 W 5.5 131.5 OVER 19.5
12/19/2020 Saint Joseph's W, 88-68 -21.5 L -1.5 153.5 OVER 2.5
12/23/2020 at Marquette W, 85-68 -4 W 13 141 OVER 12
1/19/2021 Seton Hall W, 76-74 -9.5 L -7.5 140 OVER 10
1/23/2021 Providence W, 71-56 -11 W 4 138.5 UNDER -11.5
1/30/2021 at Seton Hall W, 80-72 -5.5 W 2.5 142.5 OVER 9.5
2/3/2021 at St. John's L, 59-70 -10 L -21 151 UNDER -22
2/7/2021 Georgetown W, 84-74 -13.5 L -3.5 145 OVER 13
2/10/2021 Marquette W, 96-64 -10.5 W 21.5 139.5 OVER 20.5
2/13/2021 at Creighton L, 70-86 -2.5 L -18.5 144.5 OVER 11.5
2/20/2021 UConn W, 68-60 -7.5 W 0.5 137 UNDER -9
2/23/2021 St. John's W, 81-58 -11 W 12 152.5 UNDER -13.5
2/28/2021 at Butler L, 61-73 -12 L -24 131.5 OVER 2.5
3/3/2021 Creighton W, 72-60 -4.5 W 7.5 147 UNDER -15
3/6/2021 at Providence L, 52-54 -4.5 L -6.5 138.5 UNDER -32.5
3/11/2021 vs. Georgetown L, 71-72 -8.5 L -9.5 140.5 OVER 2.5
3/19/2021 vs. Winthrop W, 73-63 -6.5 W 3.5 143 UNDER -7
3/21/2021 vs. North Texas W, 84-61 -5.5 W 17.5 127 OVER 18
3/27/2021 vs. Baylor L, 51-62 7.5 L -3.5 142.5 UNDER -29.5

Head to Head

Villanova is 0-2-0 against the spread when it plays against Baylor in recorded games since 2019. The over has hit in 1 out of 2 recorded head-to-head games (50%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/24/2019 vs. Baylor L, 78-87 -1.5 L -10.5 139 OVER 26
3/27/2021 vs. Baylor L, 51-62 7.5 L -3.5 142.5 UNDER -29.5
Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Brandon Slater (03/28): Slater (ankle) ended up checking back into Saturday's 62-51 loss to Baylor with just over a minute remaining after he injured his left ankle earlier in the second half, Joe Juliano of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
  • Adam Flagler (03/27): Flagler posted a team-high 16 points (4-6 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 6-6 FT), three rebounds, one assist, and a steal in the win over Villanova on Saturday.
  • Davion Mitchell (03/27): Mitchell had 14 points (7-13 FG, 0-3 3Pt), two assists, two steals, one rebound, and a block in the Sweet Sixteen win over Villanova on Saturday
  • Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (03/22): Robinson-Earl recorded 18 points (8-14 FG, 2-5 3Pt), six rebounds, six assists, one steal and one block during 36 minutes in the 84-61 win against North Texas on Sunday.
  • Jermaine Samuels (03/22): Samuels finished with 15 points (5-9 FG, 1-4 3Pt, 4-4 FT), nine rebounds and four assists through 30 minutes in the 84-61 win over North Texas on Sunday.
  • Justin Moore (03/19): Moore is in the starting lineup for Friday's game against Winthrop, C.J. Holmes of The Athletic reports.
  • Brandon Slater (03/19): Slater isn't starting Friday's game against Winthrop, C.J. Holmes of The Athletic reports.
  • Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (03/11): Robinson-Earl recorded 26 points (9-13 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 7-13 FT), six rebounds and two assists through 36 minutes in the 72-71 Quarterfinal upset loss to Georgetown on Thursday.
  • Justin Moore (03/11): Moore (ankle) had 10 points (4-7 FG, 2-5 3Pt), two assists and one rebounds across 27 minutes before fouling out of Thursday's 72-71 loss to Georgetown.
  • Jermaine Samuels (03/11): Samuels had 20 points (7-17 FG, 4-11 3Pt, 2-2 FT), seven rebounds and four assists across 31 minutes in Thursday's 72-71 loss to Georgetown.
  • Cole Swider (03/11): Swider isn't among the starters for Thursday's Big East Tournament opener versus Georgetown.
  • Brandon Slater (03/11): Slater will start the Big East Tournament opener Thursday versus Georgetown.
  • Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (03/10): Robinson-Earl was one of three players named 2020-21 Big East Player of the Year on Wednesday, joining teammate Collin Gillespie and Seton Hall's Sandro Mamukelashvili.
  • Collin Gillespie (03/10): Gillespie (knee) was one of three players named 2020-21 Big East Player of the Year on Wednesday, joining teammate Jeremiah Robinson-Early and Seton Hall's Sandro Mamukelashvili.
  • Davion Mitchell (03/09): Mitchell was named the 2020-21 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year on Monday.
  • Justin Moore (03/08): Moore (ankle) is doubtful to play in this week's Big East Tournament, coach Jay Wright tweeted Monday.
  • MaCio Teague (03/08): Teague had 35 points (11-16 FG, 10-12 3Pt, 3-4 FT), three rebounds, an assist and a steal across 36 minutes in Sunday's 88-73 victory over Texas Tech.
  • Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (03/08): Robinson-Earl recorded 11 points (5-15 FG, 0-3 3Pt, 1-2 FT), 13 rebounds, one assist, one steal and one block during 36 minutes in the 54-52 loss to Providence on Saturday.
  • Jermaine Samuels (03/08): Samuels finished with 21 points (7-11 FG, 7-8 FT), eight rebounds and one assist through 34 minutes during the 54-52 loss to Providence on Saturday.
  • Collin Gillespie (03/07): Gillespie said after Villanova's 54-52 loss to Providence on Saturday that he'll undergo surgery this week to address a torn MCL in his left knee, ESPN.com reports.
  • Cole Swider (03/06): Swider is in the starting lineup for Saturday's game against Providence, Bill Koch of The Providence Journal reports.
  • Collin Gillespie (03/03): Head coach Jay Wright said Wednesday he believes Gillespie's knee injury is "serious," Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • MaCio Teague (03/03): Teague notched 11 points (5-11 FG, 1-7 3Pt), four rebounds, and two assists in the win over West Virginia on Tuesday.
  • Matthew Mayer (03/03): Mayer came off the bench and provided 18 points (7-12 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 1-1 FT), five rebounds, and four steals in the win over West Virginia on Tuesday.
  • Davion Mitchell (03/03): Mitchell put up 20 points (7-14 FG, 4-7 3Pt, 2-2 FT), five assists, and three rebounds in the win over West Virginia on Tuesday.