Preview: USC vs. Kansas

Game USC Trojans vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Date: March 22nd, 2021 9:45 PM
TV: CBS
Spread: KU +1.5
Total: 135.5 Open 134.5

Preview

USC Offense vs. Kansas Defense

The Trojans are ranked 16th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. USC shoots 52.5 percent on twos and 36.3 percent on threes for a 53.1 effective field goal percentage.

Kansas defense is ranked 17th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 46.6 percent on twos and 33.6 percent on threes for a 48.1 effective field goal percentage against the Jayhawks.

Basics
  • Kansas defense needs to get back on track in the NCAA Tournament. Over the last 30 days, the Jayhawks are ranked 70th in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to 17th overall.
  • USC is underseeded according to efficiency metrics. The 6th seeded Trojans are ranked 6th nationally per Bart Torvik. Their computer numbers suggest they should be closer to a 1 or 2 seed.
  • The Trojans are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 79.38 inches according to KenPom.com. Kansas should match up well against the Trojans’ size, with an average height of 78.24 inches.
  • USC is one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in college hoops, making just 65 percent of its freebies.
Extra Possessions
  • The game should be fairly turnover neutral on this side of the ball. USC turns it over on 18.1 percent of possessions and Kansas forces giveaways on 19.9 percent of possessions.
  • USC is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Trojans grab 35.8 percent of their missed shots. Kansas matches up well with USC’s offensive rebounding prowess. The Jayhawks rebound 73.2 percent of their opponents’ misses this season.
  • Second chance points are crucial to USC’s offense. The Trojans score 12.0 points off of second chances and only allow 9.2 points per game, outscoring teams by 2.8 points per game just on second chance opportunities.
Shot Profile
  • USC’s offensive attack is interior-focused. The Trojans only attempt 31 percent of their shots from 3-point range. Despite not being a high volume 3-point shooting team, USC shoots an impressive 36 percent from outside the arc.
  • USC dominates the paint. The Trojans score 35.1 points and allow 24.2 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 10.9 points per game. Kansas has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 5.5 points per game in the paint.
  • USC is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Trojans shoot 60 percent at the rim and Kansas allows 57 percent shooting inside of five feet.
  • USC’s offense is heavy on mid-range jumpers. The Trojans attempt 30 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 42 percent clip.
  • Kansas defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Jayhawks opponents attempt 27 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 33 percent clip. USC’s offense shoots 42 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Kansas defense excels at preventing assisted field goals and forcing one-on-one play with a style of “no help” defense popularized by Luke Yaklich. The Jayhawks only allow their opponents to record assists on 48.1 percent of made baskets.

Kansas Offense vs. USC Defense

Kansas checks in at 64th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Jayhawks shoot 48.9 percent on twos and 33.7 percent on threes for a 49.5 effective field goal percentage.

USC is ranked 6th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, USC opponents make 41.5 percent of their twos and 33.3 percent of their threes for a 44.5 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
  • Kansas offense has been struggling over the last month. The Jayhawks are ranked 91st in adjusted offensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 64th for the season.
  • Kansas is overseeded according to efficiency metrics. The 3rd seeded Jayhawks are ranked 33rd nationally, per Bart Torvik, and their computer numbers suggest they are more like a 7 or 8 seed.
  • USC plays zone defense on 13.7 percent of their defensive plays, per Synergy, and allow 0.7 points per play when they go with the zone look. The Jayhawks have really struggled this season when they come across zone defense, averaging just 0.83 points per play.
Extra Possessions
  • Kansas does a great job of valuing the basketball, turnovers on just 17.1 percent of possessions, and USC’s defense doesn’t prioritize forcing giveaways. The Trojans only force giveaways on 17 percent of opponent possessions, so expect a low turnover performance by Kansas offense.
Shot Profile
  • USC does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, USC contests 59 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Kansas excels at creating open jumpers. Only 44 percent of the Jayhawks’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • Kansas offense doesn’t have a single player shooting 38% or better from 3-point range with over 50 attempts.
  • USC is one of the best teams in the country at defending around the basket. Trojans opponents are shooting just 48 percent at the rim. Kansas makes 55 percent of its shots withing five-feet which is right around Division I average.
  • USC’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Trojans opponents attempt 31 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 34 percent clip. Kansas offense shoots 38 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Kansas relies on post-up offense to score. The Jayhawks average 12.8 points per game out of post-up actions. USC’s defense does a terrific job of guarding post-up scorers. On the year, the Trojans allow just 0.77 points per post-up play.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik lists USC as a 69-64 favorite, giving the Trojans a 70 percent chance of advancing.

USC Personnel

#4 Evan Mobley

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 7'0" | Weight: 210 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Pick and Pop Roll Man Mid-Range Specialist Rim Protector Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Gets to the Line Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
16.3 8.7 2.4 119.9 24.1% 60.5%

#2 Tahj Eaddy

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 165 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Mid-Range Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
13.8 2.8 2.6 117.7 20.6% 54.7%

#13 Drew Peterson

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 185 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Mid-Range Specialist Takes Tough Shots
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.6 5.1 2.8 106.4 19.8% 49%

#3 Isaiah Mobley

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'10" | Weight: 235 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Mid-Range Specialist Offensive Rebounder Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.4 7.4 1.6 106.6 20.8% 48.5%

#5 Isaiah White

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 205 lbs

Pick Pocket Smart Shot Selection Gets to the Line
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
7.9 3.4 0.9 112.5 19.2% 57.2%
🔥🔥🔥: White is averaging 10.6 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 2.7 points above his season average.

KU Personnel

#30 Ochai Agbaji

Role: Runaround Wing
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 210 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Glue Guy Off Screen Shooter Transition Scorer Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
14.2 3.7 1.9 111.4 19.8% 53.4%

#33 David McCormack

Role: Post Up Big
Height: 6'10" | Weight: 265 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Mid-Range Specialist Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Takes Tough Shots Mega Usage Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
13.4 6.1 1.1 110.7 28.7% 51.7%

#10 Jalen Wilson

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 215 lbs

Defensive Rebounder Gets to the Line Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
11.8 7.9 2 103.5 23.5% 48.9%
❄️❄️❄️: Wilson is averaging 7.4 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 4.4 points below his season average.

#0 Marcus Garrett

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 195 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Glue Guy Pick Pocket Isolation Scorer
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10.9 4.6 3.7 107.6 18.5% 50.2%
🔥🔥🔥: Garrett is averaging 15.4 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 4.5 points above his season average.

#2 Christian Braun

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 205 lbs

Transition Scorer
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.7 5.1 1.9 108.1 16.4% 48.8%

ATS

Kansas ATS Performance

This Season

Kansas is 15-13-1 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 16 of 29 Kansas games (55.2%) this season.

Kansas is 2-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 4 of Kansas 5 games on neutral floors (80%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/26/2020 vs. Gonzaga L, 90-102 2.5 L -9.5 147.5 OVER 44.5
11/27/2020 vs. Saint Joseph's W, 94-72 18.5 W 40.5 156 OVER 10
12/1/2020 vs. Kentucky W, 65-62 4.5 W 7.5 146 UNDER -19
12/5/2020 North Dakota State W, 65-61 -23.5 L -19.5 138 UNDER -12
12/8/2020 Creighton W, 73-72 -3.5 L -2.5 147.5 UNDER -2.5
12/11/2020 Omaha W, 95-50 -24 W 21 144 OVER 1
12/17/2020 at Texas Tech W, 58-57 1.5 W 2.5 131 UNDER -16
12/22/2020 West Virginia W, 79-65 -2 W 12 140.5 OVER 3.5
1/2/2021 Texas L, 59-84 -4 L -29 136 OVER 7
1/5/2021 at TCU W, 93-64 -5.5 W 23.5 138.5 OVER 18.5
1/9/2021 Oklahoma W, 63-59 -7 L -3 144.5 UNDER -22.5
1/12/2021 at Oklahoma State L, 70-75 -3.5 L -8.5 143 OVER 2
1/18/2021 at Baylor L, 69-77 9 W 1 139.5 OVER 6.5
1/23/2021 at Oklahoma L, 68-75 -1 L -8 142.5 OVER 0.5
1/28/2021 TCU W, 59-51 -14.5 L -6.5 136.5 UNDER -26.5
1/30/2021 at Tennessee L, 61-80 2.5 L -16.5 130 OVER 11
2/2/2021 Kansas State W, 74-51 -18 W 5 133.5 UNDER -8.5
2/6/2021 at West Virginia L, 79-91 2.5 L -9.5 141.5 OVER 28.5
2/8/2021 Oklahoma State W, 78-66 -5 W 7 140.5 OVER 3.5
2/11/2021 Iowa State W, 97-64 -15 W 18 143.5 OVER 17.5
2/13/2021 at Iowa State W, 64-50 -11.5 W 2.5 146.5 UNDER -32.5
2/17/2021 at Kansas State W, 59-41 -13 W 5 135.5 UNDER -35.5
2/20/2021 Texas Tech W, 67-61 -2 W 4 134 UNDER -6
2/23/2021 at Texas L, 72-75 3 P 0 138.5 OVER 8.5
2/27/2021 Baylor W, 71-58 5 W 18 142 UNDER -13
3/4/2021 UTEP W, 67-62 -18 L -13 135 UNDER -6
3/11/2021 Oklahoma W, 69-62 -3.5 W 3.5 137 UNDER -6
3/20/2021 vs. Eastern Washington W, 93-84 -10.5 L -1.5 146.5 OVER 30.5
3/22/2021 vs. USC L, 51-85 1.5 L -32.5 134.5 OVER 1.5

Head to Head

Kansas is 0-1-0 against the spread when it plays against USC in recorded games since 2021. The over has hit in 1 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (100%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/22/2021 vs. USC L, 51-85 1.5 L -32.5 134.5 OVER 1.5

USC ATS Performance

This Season

USC is 19-13-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 17 of 32 USC games (53.1%) this season.

USC is 4-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 4 of USC’s 7 games on neutral floors (57.1%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 California Baptist W, 95-87 -18.5 L -10.5 148.5 OVER 33.5
11/28/2020 Montana W, 76-62 -11.5 W 2.5 141 UNDER -3
12/1/2020 vs. BYU W, 79-53 -3.5 W 22.5 147.5 UNDER -15.5
12/3/2020 vs. UConn L, 58-61 -1 L -4 142 UNDER -23
12/8/2020 UC Irvine W, 91-56 -11.5 W 23.5 136.5 OVER 10.5
12/29/2020 Santa Clara W, 86-63 -11 W 12 134.5 OVER 14.5
12/31/2020 Colorado L, 62-72 -2 L -12 139.5 UNDER -5.5
1/2/2021 Utah W, 64-46 -5 W 13 138.5 UNDER -28.5
1/7/2021 at Arizona W, 87-73 4.5 W 18.5 140.5 OVER 19.5
1/9/2021 at Arizona State W, 73-64 -1.5 W 7.5 149 UNDER -12
1/12/2021 UC Riverside W, 67-62 -14 L -9 132.5 UNDER -3.5
1/14/2021 Washington W, 95-68 -14 W 13 138.5 OVER 24.5
1/16/2021 Washington State W, 85-77 -13 L -5 133.5 OVER 28.5
1/19/2021 at Oregon State L, 56-58 -10.5 L -12.5 138.5 UNDER -24.5
1/23/2021 at California W, 76-68 -8.5 L -0.5 135.5 OVER 8.5
1/28/2021 Oregon State W, 75-62 -12 W 1 135.5 OVER 1.5
2/2/2021 at Stanford W, 72-66 -2 W 4 137.5 OVER 0.5
2/6/2021 UCLA W, 66-48 -3.5 W 14.5 135.5 UNDER -21.5
2/11/2021 at Washington W, 69-54 -11.5 W 3.5 145.5 UNDER -22.5
2/13/2021 at Washington State W, 76-65 -8 W 3 132.5 OVER 8.5
2/17/2021 Arizona State W, 89-71 -11.5 W 6.5 146 OVER 14
2/20/2021 Arizona L, 72-81 -5.5 L -14.5 139.5 OVER 13.5
2/22/2021 Oregon W, 72-58 -3.5 W 10.5 140 UNDER -10
2/25/2021 at Colorado L, 62-80 3 L -15 136.5 OVER 5.5
2/27/2021 at Utah L, 61-71 -5.5 L -15.5 138 UNDER -6
3/3/2021 Stanford W, 79-42 -7.5 W 29.5 137 UNDER -16
3/6/2021 at UCLA W, 64-63 -2.5 L -1.5 135.5 UNDER -8.5
3/11/2021 vs. Utah W, 91-85 -7 L -1 141 OVER 35
3/12/2021 vs. Colorado L, 70-72 1.5 L -0.5 134 OVER 8
3/20/2021 vs. Drake W, 72-56 -6.5 W 9.5 138.5 UNDER -10.5
3/22/2021 vs. Kansas W, 85-51 -1.5 W 32.5 134.5 OVER 1.5
3/28/2021 vs. Oregon W, 82-68 -2 W 12 138 OVER 12

Head to Head

USC is 1-0-0 against the spread when it plays against Kansas in recorded games since 2021. The over has hit in 1 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (100%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/22/2021 vs. Kansas W, 85-51 -1.5 W 32.5 134.5 OVER 1.5
Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Jalen Wilson (03/23): Wilson had two points (0-3 FG< 2-2 FT), one assist and one steal across nine minutes off the bench in Monday's 85-51 loss to USC.
  • Evan Mobley (03/23): Mobley recorded 10 points (4-6 FG, 0-0 3Pt, 2-4 FT), 13 rebounds and five assists in 27 minutes during Monday's 85-51 win over Kansas.
  • Isaiah Mobley (03/23): Mobley posted 17 points (6-14 FG, 4-5 3Pt, 1-1 FT), eight rebounds and four assists across 31 minutes in Monday's 85-51 victory over Kansas.
  • Jalen Wilson (03/21): Wilson is not expected to be at 100 percent for Monday's game against USC, according to Scott Chasen of 247Sports.com.
  • Marcus Garrett (03/21): Garrett notched 20 points (8-12 FG, 4-6 3Pt, 1-1 FT), eight rebounds, three assists, and a steal in the win over Eastern Washington on Saturday.
  • Ochai Agbaji (03/21): Agbaji put up 21 points (8-17 FG, 2-8 3Pt, 2-4 FT), seven rebounds, three assists, and a steal in the win over Eastern Washington on Saturday.
  • Drew Peterson (03/21): Peterson recorded 14 points (5-10 FG, 1-1 3Pt, 3-5 FT), two rebounds and two assists in 28 minutes during Saturday's 72-56 win over Drake.
  • Tahj Eaddy (03/21): Eaddy tallied nine points (4-11 FG, 1-5 3Pt, 0-1 FT), six rebounds and 10 assists across 33 minutes in Saturday's 72-56 win over Drake.
  • David McCormack (03/20): McCormack (Covid-19 protocols) had 22 points (9-15 FG, 4-5 FT), nine rebounds, two assists, two steals and a block in 25 minutes during Saturday's 93-84 win over Eastern Washington.
  • Mitch Lightfoot (03/20): Lightfoot is in the starting lineup for Saturday's game against Eastern Washington.
  • David McCormack (03/19): McCormack will be able to practice Friday, Gary Bedore of The Kansas City Star reports.
  • Tristan Enaruna (03/17): Enaruna (COVID-19 protocols) won't play this weekend due to a positive test, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Jalen Wilson (03/17): Wilson could be available for the Jayhawks if they manage to make it to the Round of 32, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • David McCormack (03/17): McCormack will arrive in Indianapolis on Friday in advance of Saturday's matchup against Eastern Washington, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Tristan Enaruna (03/15): Enaruna (COVID-19 protocols) didn't travel with the Jayhawks to Indianapolis ahead of Saturday's NCAA Tournament game versus Eastern Washington, Gary Bedore of The Kansas City Star reports.
  • David McCormack (03/15): McCormack (COVID-19 protocols) didn't travel with the Jayhawks to Indianapolis ahead of Saturday's NCAA Tournament matchup with Eastern Washington, Gary Bedore of The Kansas City Star reports.
  • Jalen Wilson (03/15): Wilson (COVID-19 protocols) did not travel with the team to Indianapolis on Monday and is not expected to play in their first round game against Eastern Washington on Saturday, Jeff Goodman of WatchStadium.com reports.
  • Evan Mobley (03/13): Mobley recorded 26 points (11-16 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 3-7 FT), nine rebounds and three assists in 39 minutes during Friday's 72-70 loss to Colorado.
  • Ochai Agbaji (03/12): Kansas won't take the floor again in the Big 12 Tournament after a player who played Thursday tested positive for COVID-19, Matt Norlander of CBS Sports reports.
  • Evan Mobley (03/12): Mobley tallied 26 points (7-14 FG, 1-1 3Pt, 11-14 FT), nine rebounds and two assists across 37 minutes in Thursday's 91-85 double overtime victory over Utah.
  • David McCormack (03/12): McCormack (COVID-19 protocol) should be available when the Jayhawks take the floor to open the NCAA Tournament, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Tristan Enaruna (03/12): Enaruna (COVID-19 protocols) is expected to be available for the start of next week's NCAA Tournament, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Isaiah White (03/12): White recorded 14 points (6-10 FG, 1-4 3Pt, 1-2 FT), five rebounds and one assist in 25 minutes during Thursday's 91-85 double overtime victory over Utah.
  • Bryce Thompson (03/11): Thompson will start Thursday's game against Oklahoma, Matt Tait of the Lawrence Journal-World reports.
  • Isaiah White (03/11): White (back) is expected to take the floor Thursday against Utah, Ryan Kartje of the Los Angeles Times reports.