Preview: UCLA vs. Michigan

Game UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan Wolverines
Date: March 30th, 2021 9:57 PM
TV: TBS
Spread: MICH -7.5
Total: 136.5

Preview

UCLA Offense vs. Michigan Defense

UCLA checks in at 12th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Bruins shoot 50.1 percent on twos and 37.2 percent on threes for a 51.9 effective field goal percentage.

Michigan is ranked 13th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Michigan opponents make 42.6 percent of their twos and 32.4 percent of their threes for a 44.5 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
Extra Possessions
  • UCLA does a great job of valuing the basketball, turnovers on just 15.9 percent of possessions, and Michigan’s defense doesn’t prioritize forcing giveaways. The Wolverines only force giveaways on 14.8 percent of opponent possessions, so expect a low turnover performance by UCLA’s offense.
  • UCLA is unique because its guards are aggressive on the offensive glass. Perimeter players account for 27.9 percent of the Bruins’ offensive boards. That should put extra pressure on Michigan’s perimeter players to clean up the glass.
Shot Profile
  • Michigan does a great job running its opponents off the 3-point line. MICH opponents attempt 32 percent of their shots from 3-point range and are shooting 33 percent from 3-point range while UCLA is shooting 37 percent from outside and attempts 32 percent of its shots from long distance.
  • Michigan does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, MICH contests 62 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, UCLA’s offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 51 percent of the Bruins’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • UCLA is difficult to guard because it has 3 players on the roster shooting at least 38 percent from 3-point range on over 50 perimeter attempts.
  • Michigan is one of the best teams in the country at defending around the basket. Wolverines opponents are shooting just 50 percent at the rim. UCLA makes 55 percent of its shots withing five-feet which is right around Division I average.
  • UCLA’s offense is heavy on mid-range jumpers. The Bruins attempt 35 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 45 percent clip.
  • Michigan’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Wolverines opponents attempt 30 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 33 percent clip. UCLA’s offense shoots 45 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Michigan’s defense is unique for its ability to prevent assists. Only 41.5 percent of made baskets are assisted against the Wolverines.
  • UCLA trusts its players to create in one-on-one situations and scores 7.7 points per game out of iso actions at 0.92 points per play. Michigan’s defense excels at defending one-on-one, allowing just 0.74 points per isolation play.

Michigan Offense vs. UCLA Defense

Michigan checks in at 8th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Wolverines shoot 53.9 percent on twos and 38.3 percent on threes for a 55.1 effective field goal percentage.

UCLA is ranked 61st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, UCLA opponents make 49.8 percent of their twos and 33.8 percent of their threes for a 50.1 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
  • Michigan’s offense has been struggling over the last month. The Wolverines are ranked 30th in adjusted offensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 8th for the season.
  • Michigan is one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, averaging 2.14 years of experience weighted by minutes played, per KenPom.com.
  • The Wolverines are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 77.93 inches according to KenPom.com.
  • You can trust Michigan at the line in a close game. The Wolverines shoot 77 percent at the line for the season.
Extra Possessions
  • Michigan does a great job of valuing the basketball, turnovers on just 16.3 percent of possessions, and UCLA’s defense doesn’t prioritize forcing giveaways. The Bruins only force giveaways on 17.4 percent of opponent possessions, so expect a low turnover performance by Michigan’s offense.
  • Second chance points are crucial to Michigan’s offense. The Wolverines score 11.0 points off of second chances and only allow 8.4 points per game, outscoring teams by 2.6 points per game just on second chance opportunities. UCLA has also been great on the glass this year, outscoring opponents by 2.4 points per game on second chances.
Shot Profile
  • UCLA allows opponents to attempt 39 percent of their shots from 3-point range. UCLA opponents are shooting 33 percent from 3-point range while Michigan is shooting 38 percent from outside and attempts 34 percent of its shots from long distance.
  • UCLA does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, UCLA contests 63 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Michigan’s offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 51 percent of the Wolverines’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • Michigan dominates the paint. The Wolverines score 34.9 points and allow 27.6 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 7.3 points per game.
  • Michigan is difficult to guard because it has 4 players on the roster shooting at least 38 percent from 3-point range on over 50 perimeter attempts.
  • Michigan is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Wolverines shoot 63 percent at the rim and UCLA allows 55 percent shooting inside of five feet.
  • UCLA’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Bruins opponents attempt 26 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 42 percent clip. Michigan’s offense shoots 36 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Michigan is a terrific passing team that records assists on 57.4 percent of its made baskets. UCLA’s defense is designed to minimize help and prevent assisted baskets. On the season, UCLA opponents log assists on 48.4 percent of makes.
  • Michigan is reliant on ball screen screen offense. The Wolverines score 26.6 points per game out of ball screen actions at 0.94 points per play. UCLA’s defense is fairly average containing ball screen looks. Opponents score 0.83 points per ball screen action (including pass-outs) against the Bruins.
  • Michigan relies on post-up offense to score. The Wolverines average 13.6 points per game out of post-up actions. UCLA is fairly average defending the post, allowing 0.83 points per play.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik projects a 70-65 Michigan win over UCLA and gives the Wolverines a 69 percent chance at picking up the victory.

UCLA Personnel

#3 Johnny Juzang

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 210 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Mid-Range Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Go-To Guy Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
14.7 4.1 1.6 108.4 25.6% 49.5%

#4 Jaime Jaquez

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 220 lbs

Glue Guy Off the Dribble Shooter Isolation Scorer Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
11.9 6.2 1.5 116.0 18.8% 55.1%

#1 Jules Bernard

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 205 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10.7 4.9 1.6 112.8 20.5% 52.4%

#10 Tyger Campbell

Role: Domineering Ball Handler
Height: 5'11" | Weight: 180 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Isolation Scorer Poor Finisher Takes Tough Shots
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10.3 2.2 5.5 106.8 21.2% 45.2%

#2 Cody Riley

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 255 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Mid-Range Specialist Catch and Shoot Non Shooter Defensive Rebounder Takes Tough Shots Go-To Guy Gets to the Line Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10 5.4 1.1 102.1 26.5% 55.1%

MICH Personnel

#1 Hunter Dickinson

Role: Post Up Big
Height: 7'1" | Weight: 255 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Finisher Roll Man Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Defensive Rebounder Go-To Guy Gets to the Line Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
14.2 7.6 0.9 112.8 26.6% 60.2%

#21 Franz Wagner

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 220 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.8 6.5 3 122.0 19.3% 56.2%

#2 Isaiah Livers

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 230 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
13.1 6 2 122.7 18.9% 57%
❄️❄️❄️: Livers is averaging 8.2 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 4.9 points below his season average.

#12 Mike Smith

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 5'11" | Weight: 185 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Turnover Prone Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.3 2.7 5.4 110.0 19.1% 50%

#55 Eli Brooks

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 185 lbs

Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.5 3.1 3.1 118.4 16.1% 52.2%
🔥🔥🔥: Brooks is averaging 13.2 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 3.7 points above his season average.

ATS

Michigan ATS Performance

This Season

Michigan is 18-8-1 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 12 of 27 Michigan games (44.4%) this season.

Michigan is 3-2-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 3 of Michigan’s 5 games on neutral floors (60%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 Bowling Green W, 96-82 -14 P 0 149 OVER 29
11/29/2020 Oakland W, 81-71 -31 L -21 145.5 OVER 6.5
12/2/2020 Ball State W, 84-65 -15.5 W 3.5 142 OVER 7
12/6/2020 UCF W, 80-58 -11.5 W 10.5 141.5 UNDER -3.5
12/9/2020 Toledo W, 91-71 -13.5 W 6.5 145.5 OVER 16.5
12/13/2020 Penn State W, 62-58 -7 L -3 152 UNDER -32
12/25/2020 at Nebraska W, 80-69 -8 W 3 148.5 OVER 0.5
12/31/2020 at Maryland W, 84-73 -2 W 9 142.5 OVER 14.5
1/3/2021 Northwestern W, 85-66 -9 W 10 144.5 OVER 6.5
1/6/2021 Minnesota W, 82-57 -7.5 W 17.5 152 UNDER -13
1/12/2021 Wisconsin W, 77-54 -3.5 W 19.5 134 UNDER -3
1/16/2021 at Minnesota L, 57-75 -6 L -24 147.5 UNDER -15.5
1/19/2021 Maryland W, 87-63 -10 W 14 140.5 OVER 9.5
1/22/2021 at Purdue W, 70-53 -3.5 W 13.5 138 UNDER -15
2/14/2021 at Wisconsin W, 67-59 0 W 8 133.5 UNDER -7.5
2/18/2021 Rutgers W, 71-64 -10 L -3 136.5 UNDER -1.5
2/21/2021 at Ohio State W, 92-87 -1.5 W 3.5 144.5 OVER 34.5
2/25/2021 Iowa W, 79-57 -5 W 17 155.5 UNDER -19.5
2/27/2021 at Indiana W, 73-57 -8 W 8 138.5 UNDER -8.5
3/2/2021 Illinois L, 53-76 -8 L -31 146.5 UNDER -17.5
3/4/2021 Michigan State W, 69-50 -12 W 7 140 UNDER -21
3/7/2021 at Michigan State L, 64-70 -8 L -14 138 UNDER -4
3/12/2021 vs. Maryland W, 79-66 -8 W 5 133.5 OVER 11.5
3/13/2021 vs. Ohio State L, 67-68 -6.5 L -7.5 144.5 UNDER -9.5
3/20/2021 vs. Texas Southern W, 82-66 -26 L -10 142 OVER 6
3/22/2021 vs. LSU W, 86-78 -5 W 3 149 OVER 15
3/28/2021 vs. Florida State W, 76-58 -2 W 16 143 UNDER -9

Head to Head

Michigan is 1-0-0 against the spread when it plays against UCLA in recorded games since 2017. The over has hit in 1 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (100%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
12/9/2017 UCLA W, 78-69 -7 W 2 145.5 OVER 1.5

UCLA ATS Performance

This Season

UCLA is 16-14-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 17 of 30 UCLA games (56.7%) this season.

UCLA is 5-2-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 5 of UCLA’s 7 games on neutral floors (71.4%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 at San Diego State L, 58-73 -3.5 L -18.5 134 UNDER -3
11/27/2020 vs. Pepperdine W, 107-98 7.5 W 16.5 143.5 OVER 61.5
12/3/2020 Seattle W, 78-52 -20 W 6 136.5 UNDER -6.5
12/6/2020 California W, 76-56 -10.5 W 9.5 130.5 OVER 1.5
12/9/2020 San Diego W, 83-56 -17.5 W 9.5 137 OVER 2
12/11/2020 Marquette W, 69-60 -4.5 W 4.5 140.5 UNDER -11.5
12/19/2020 vs. Ohio State L, 70-77 1.5 L -5.5 135.5 OVER 11.5
12/31/2020 Utah W, 72-70 -7.5 L -5.5 136 OVER 6
1/2/2021 Colorado W, 65-62 -2 W 1 137.5 UNDER -10.5
1/7/2021 at Arizona State W, 81-75 -1.5 W 4.5 150.5 OVER 5.5
1/9/2021 at Arizona W, 81-76 3 W 8 139.5 OVER 17.5
1/14/2021 Washington State W, 91-61 -9.5 W 20.5 131.5 OVER 20.5
1/16/2021 Washington W, 81-76 -14.5 L -9.5 141 OVER 16
1/21/2021 at California W, 61-57 -9 L -5 136.5 UNDER -18.5
1/23/2021 at Stanford L, 72-73 -4.5 L -5.5 138.5 OVER 6.5
1/30/2021 Oregon State W, 57-52 -11.5 L -6.5 135 UNDER -26
2/6/2021 at USC L, 48-66 3.5 L -14.5 135.5 UNDER -21.5
2/11/2021 at Washington State L, 73-81 -4 L -12 130 OVER 24
2/13/2021 at Washington W, 64-61 -9.5 L -6.5 141.5 UNDER -16.5
2/18/2021 Arizona W, 74-60 -1.5 W 12.5 140 UNDER -6
2/20/2021 Arizona State W, 80-79 -7.5 L -6.5 145.5 OVER 13.5
2/25/2021 at Utah W, 76-61 -1.5 W 13.5 136 OVER 1
2/27/2021 at Colorado L, 61-70 6.5 L -2.5 136.5 UNDER -5.5
3/3/2021 at Oregon L, 74-82 4 L -4 134 OVER 22
3/6/2021 USC L, 63-64 2.5 W 1.5 135.5 UNDER -8.5
3/11/2021 vs. Oregon State L, 79-83 -5 L -9 133.5 OVER 28.5
3/18/2021 vs. Michigan State W, 86-80 2 W 8 135.5 OVER 30.5
3/20/2021 vs. BYU W, 73-62 3.5 W 14.5 138.5 UNDER -3.5
3/22/2021 vs. Abilene Christian W, 67-47 -4.5 W 15.5 133 UNDER -19
3/28/2021 vs. Alabama W, 88-78 6.5 W 16.5 145 OVER 21

Head to Head

UCLA is 0-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Michigan in recorded games since 2017. The over has hit in 1 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (100%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
12/9/2017 at Michigan L, 69-78 7 L -2 145.5 OVER 1.5
Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Jaime Jaquez (03/28): Jaquez posted 17 points (6-13 FG, 2-6 3Pt, 3-4 FT), eight rebounds and three assists in 45 minutes during Sunday's 88-78 overtime win over Alabama.
  • David Singleton (03/28): Singleton tallied 15 points (4-5 FG, 3-4 3Pt, 4-5 FT), three rebounds and zero assists across 20 minutes in Sunday's 88-78 overtime victory over Alabama.
  • Isaiah Livers (03/28): Livers (foot) will miss the remainder of the NCAA Tournament, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Cody Riley (03/23): Riley tallied 12 points (5-7 FG, 0-0 3Pt, 2-6 FT), 12 rebounds and one assist in 31 minutes during Monday's 67-47 victory over Abilene Christian.
  • Johnny Juzang (03/23): Juzang recorded 17 points (7-15 FG, 3-7 3Pt, 0-0 FT), three rebounds and one assist across 27 minutes in Monday's 67-47 win over Abilene Christian.
  • Hunter Dickinson (03/23): Dickinson compiled 12 points (4-7 FG, 4-5 FT), 11 rebounds, three assists and one block over 31 minutes in Monday's 86-78 win over LSU.
  • Eli Brooks (03/23): Brooks tallied 21 points (7-11 FG, 5-9 3Pt, 2-2 FT), seven assists and four rebounds over 32 minutes in Monday's 86-78 win over LSU.
  • Mike Smith (03/21): Smith posted 18 points (6-12 FG, 2-6 3Pt, 4-4 FT), five assists, four rebounds and one steal over 37 minutes in Saturday's 82-66 win over Texas Southern.
  • Cody Riley (03/21): Riley posted three points (1-1 FG, 0-0 3Pt, 1-2 FT), three rebounds and one assist across 18 minutes in Saturday's 73-62 victory over BYU.
  • Johnny Juzang (03/21): Juzang posted 27 points (10-16 FG, 3-7 3Pt, 4-5 FT), five rebounds and zero assists across 38 minutes in Saturday's 73-62 victory over BYU.
  • Johnny Juzang (03/20): Juzang is in the starting lineup for Saturday's game against BYU.
  • Isaiah Livers (03/20): Per the CBS broadcast, Livers (foot) is looking at a 6-to-8 week timetable to return, Ethan Sears of The Michigan Daily reports.
  • Johnny Juzang (03/19): Coach Mick Cronin hopes to have Juzang (ankle) available for Saturday's NCAA Tournament clash with BYU, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Johnny Juzang (03/19): Juzang suffered a right ankle sprain during Thursday's overtime win over Michigan State, Ben Bolch of the Los Angeles Times reports.
  • Tyger Campbell (03/19): Campbell tallied seven points (2-6 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 2-2 FT), zero rebounds and four assists across 34 minutes in Wednesday's 86-80 overtime victory over Michigan St.
  • Jules Bernard (03/19): Bernard recorded 11 points (4-8 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 2-4 FT), eight rebounds and two assists in 38 minutes during Wednesday's 86-80 overtime win over Michigan St.
  • Jaime Jaquez (03/19): Jaquez posted 27 points (11-20 FG, 3-4 3Pt, 2-4 FT), four rebounds and two assists across 45 minutes in Wednesday's 86-80 overtime victory over Michigan St.
  • Jalen Hill (03/18): Hill (personal) won't play in Thursday's game against Michigan State, Ben Bolch of the Los Angeles Times reports.
  • Hunter Dickinson (03/14): Dickinson recorded 21 points (9-14 FG, 3-3 FT), eight rebounds, one steal and one block over 30 minutes in Saturday's 68-67 loss to Ohio State.
  • Brandon Johns (03/13): Johns is in the starting lineup for Saturday's game against Ohio State.
  • Isaiah Livers (03/13): Livers is out indefinitely due to a foot injury, according to Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports.
  • Franz Wagner (03/13): Wagner compiled 16 points (7-12 FG, 2-5 3Pt), four rebounds, two assists and one steal over 39 minutes in Friday's 79-66 win over Maryland.
  • Mike Smith (03/12): Smith opened the Big Ten Tournament versus Maryland on Friday with a season-best 18 points (6-14 FG, 2-2 3PT, 4-4 FT), a season-best 15 assists, five boards and two steals.
  • Cody Riley (03/12): Riley recorded seven points (2-7 FG, 0-0 3Pt, 3-4 FT), six rebounds and one assist in 27 minutes during Thursday's 83-79 overtime loss to Oregon St.
  • Eli Brooks (03/12): Brooks (ankle) will start Friday's Big Ten Tournament opener versus Maryland.