Preview: Texas Tech vs. Arkansas

Game Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Date: March 21st, 2021 6:15 PM
TV: TNT
Spread: ARK +1.5 Open 1
Total: 140.5 Open: 141

Preview

Texas Tech Offense vs. Arkansas Defense

Texas Tech checks in at 33rd nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Red Raiders shoot 47.8 percent on twos and 35.4 percent on threes for a 49.5 effective field goal percentage.

Arkansas is ranked 12th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Arkansas opponents make 46.3 percent of their twos and 33.2 percent of their threes for a 47.6 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
  • Texas Tech is underseeded according to efficiency metrics. The 6th seeded Red Raiders are ranked 17th nationally per Bart Torvik. Their computer numbers suggest they should be closer to a 4 or 5 seed.
  • According to KenPom, Texas Tech ranked 322nd nationally in luck, meaning that their adjusted efficiency margin stats indicate they should have a better record and have come up short in close games.
Extra Possessions
  • Texas Tech does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Red Raiders only turn it over on 16 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a Arkansas defense that forces giveaways on 20.3 percent of possessions.
  • Texas Tech does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Red Raiders score 17.8 points points per game off of turnovers.
  • The Red Raiders are fantastic on the offensive glass and rebound 33.2 percent of their missed shots. Arkansas is one of the better defensive rebounding teams in the field, grabbing 73.7 percent of opponent misses, which should negate this advantage.
Shot Profile
  • Texas Tech’s offensive attack is interior-focused. The Red Raiders only attempt 31 percent of their shots from 3-point range.
  • Texas Tech dominates the paint. The Red Raiders score 29.0 points and allow 21.9 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 7.1 points per game. Arkansas has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 7.4 points per game in the paint.
  • Texas Tech’s offense can be somewhat one-dimensional because there’s only one player (Edwards) on the roster who shoots 38% or better from 3-point range on 50+ attempts.
  • Arkansas is one of the best teams in the country at defending around the basket. Razorbacks opponents are shooting just 52 percent at the rim. Texas Tech makes 57 percent of its shots withing five-feet which is right around Division I average.
  • Texas Tech’s offense is heavy on mid-range jumpers. The Red Raiders attempt 30 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 36 percent clip.
Style
  • Arkansas defense is unique for its ability to prevent assists. Only 48 percent of made baskets are assisted against the Razorbacks.
  • Texas Tech’s offense is overweight on off-ball screens and cuts compared to the rest of the field and should test Arkansas defensive discipline off the ball. The Red Raiders average 9.8 points per game via cuts and off-ball screens, scoring 1.02 points per play on those actions. Arkansas defense excels at defending off-ball sets, allowing just 0.84 points per play.
  • Texas Tech trusts its players to create in one-on-one situations and scores 8.6 points per game out of iso actions and average 0.81 points per isolation play.

Arkansas Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense

The Razorbacks are ranked 51st nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Arkansas shoots 51.2 percent on twos and 33.3 percent on threes for a 50.7 effective field goal percentage.

Texas Tech’s defense is ranked 21st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 45.4 percent on twos and 34.3 percent on threes for a 47.7 effective field goal percentage against the Red Raiders.

Basics
  • Arkansas offense enters the tournament on a cold streak. Over the last 30 days, the Razorbacks are ranked 121st in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to 51st for the year.
  • Arkansas is overseeded according to efficiency metrics. The 3rd seeded Razorbacks are ranked 23rd nationally, per Bart Torvik, and their computer numbers suggest they are more like a 4 or 5 seed.
  • According to KenPom, Arkansas is one of the “luckier” teams in the field, ranked 57th nationally in luck, meaning that they’ve won more games than their adjusted efficiency margin stats would indicate.
  • The Razorbacks are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 78.08 inches according to KenPom.com.
  • The Razorbacks have a notable size advantage on the inside, their power forwards and centers rank in the 92nd percentile in height compared to Texas Tech’s bigs which rank in the 8th percentile.
  • Arkansas plays as fast as any team in the country. The Razorbacks average 75 possessions per game.
  • Texas Tech’s press defense should create issues for Arkansas. Texas Tech presses on 10.8 percent of plays and Razorbacks only score 0.76 against pressure defense.
  • Arkansas makes 74 percent of its free throws which should come in handy in a close game.
Extra Possessions
  • Arkansas does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Razorbacks only turn it over on 17 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a Texas Tech defense that forces giveaways on 23.7 percent of possessions.
  • Arkansas does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Razorbacks score 18.3 points points per game off of turnovers. Texas Tech avoids turnovers for touchdowns, allowing only 10.1 points per game off of giveaways.
  • Second chance points are crucial to Arkansas offense. The Razorbacks score 13.6 points off of second chances and only allow 10.1 points per game, outscoring teams by 3.6 points per game just on second chance opportunities.
  • Arkansas is unique because its guards are aggressive on the offensive glass. Perimeter players account for 30.5 percent of the Razorbacks’ offensive boards. That should put extra pressure on Texas Tech’s perimeter players to clean up the glass.
Shot Profile
  • Texas Tech allows opponents to attempt 39 percent of their shots from 3-point range. TTU opponents are shooting 34 percent from 3-point range while Arkansas is shooting 34 percent from outside and attempts 34 percent of its shots from long distance.
  • Texas Tech only contests 46 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Arkansas excels at creating open jumpers. Only 42 percent of the Razorbacks’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • Arkansas dominates the paint. The Razorbacks score 36.0 points and allow 28.6 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 7.4 points per game. Texas Tech has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 7.1 points per game in the paint.
  • Arkansas offense doesn’t have a single player shooting 38% or better from 3-point range with over 50 attempts.
  • Texas Tech’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Red Raiders opponents attempt 29 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 36 percent clip. Arkansas offense shoots 39 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Arkansas loves to push the ball in transition. An impressive 20 percent of ARK’s offensive plays are in transition and those transition plays create 17.4 points per game. Texas Tech’s defense does a great job of limiting transition opportunities and only allows 10.1 points per game in transition.
  • Texas Tech’s defense excels at preventing assisted field goals and forcing one-on-one play with a style of “no help” defense popularized by Luke Yaklich. The Red Raiders only allow their opponents to record assists on 45 percent of made baskets.
  • Arkansas offense incorporates more off-ball actions and screens than the average Division I team. The Razorbacks score 10.8 points per game off of off-ball actions at 1.05 points per play. Texas Tech’s defense excels at defending off-ball sets, allowing just 0.84 points per play.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik projects a 70-69 Texas Tech victory over Arkansas and gives the Red Raiders a 52 percent chance at picking up the win.

TTU Personnel

#0 Mac McClung

Role: Domineering Ball Handler
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 185 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Off Screen Shooter Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Off the Dribble Shooter Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Go-To Guy Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
15.5 2.7 2.1 107.7 25.7% 48.9%

#1 Terrence Shannon

Role: Tall Ball Handler
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 210 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Pick Pocket Isolation Scorer Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.9 4 1.4 111.5 23.8% 50.4%

#11 Kyler Edwards

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 195 lbs

Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10.1 4.8 2.8 115.8 16.5% 53.4%

#14 Marcus Santos-Silva

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 245 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Rim Protector Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.3 6.3 1.3 109.1 20.9% 52.8%

#15 Kevin McCullar

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 205 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Pick Pocket Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10.4 6.2 2 104.2 20.2% 45.6%

ARK Personnel

#5 Moses Moody

Role: Runaround Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 205 lbs

Off Screen Shooter Transition Scorer Corner 3-Point Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
17 5.8 1.6 117.1 21.5% 51.1%

#1 JD Notae

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 195 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Isolation Scorer Mega Usage
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.8 3.2 1.9 99.1 28.2% 45.4%

#0 Justin Smith

Role: Reluctant Shooter
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 230 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Finisher Transition Scorer Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
13.8 7.3 1.7 113.1 20.8% 55.5%
🔥🔥🔥: Smith is averaging 19.6 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 5.8 points above his season average.

#11 Jalen Tate

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 175 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Turnover Prone Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10.9 3.8 3.9 105.3 20.1% 53%

#4 Davonte Davis

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 180 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Non Shooter Takes Tough Shots
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.3 4.4 2.1 101.2 19.2% 48.1%
🔥🔥🔥: Davis is averaging 12 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 3.7 points above his season average.

ATS

Arkansas ATS Performance

This Season

Arkansas is 19-11-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 15 of 30 Arkansas games (50%) this season.

Arkansas is 3-2-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 0 of Arkansas 5 games on neutral floors (0%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 Mississippi Valley State W, 142-62 -36.5 W 43.5 153.5 OVER 50.5
11/28/2020 North Texas W, 69-54 -8.5 W 6.5 149.5 UNDER -26.5
12/2/2020 UT Arlington W, 72-60 -15.5 L -3.5 149.5 UNDER -17.5
12/5/2020 Lipscomb W, 86-50 -16.5 W 19.5 144.5 UNDER -8.5
12/12/2020 Central Arkansas W, 100-75 -23.5 W 1.5 156 OVER 19
12/20/2020 Oral Roberts W, 87-76 -19 L -8 154 OVER 9
12/22/2020 Abilene Christian W, 85-72 -13.5 L -0.5 138 OVER 19
12/30/2020 at Auburn W, 97-85 -3 W 9 145.5 OVER 36.5
1/2/2021 Missouri L, 68-81 -6.5 L -19.5 146 OVER 3
1/6/2021 at Tennessee L, 74-79 8 W 3 142.5 OVER 10.5
1/9/2021 Georgia W, 99-69 -8.5 W 21.5 158.5 OVER 9.5
1/13/2021 at LSU L, 76-92 2.5 L -13.5 156.5 OVER 11.5
1/16/2021 at Alabama L, 59-90 2 L -29 161.5 UNDER -12.5
1/20/2021 Auburn W, 75-73 -4.5 L -2.5 156 UNDER -8
1/23/2021 at Vanderbilt W, 92-71 -7.5 W 13.5 153 OVER 10
1/27/2021 Ole Miss W, 74-59 -5 W 10 142.5 UNDER -9.5
1/30/2021 at Oklahoma State L, 77-81 2 L -2 151.5 OVER 6.5
2/2/2021 Mississippi State W, 61-45 -7 W 9 144 UNDER -38
2/9/2021 at Kentucky W, 81-80 1 W 2 143 OVER 18
2/13/2021 at Missouri W, 86-81 3.5 W 8.5 150 OVER 17
2/16/2021 Florida W, 75-64 -5 W 6 150 UNDER -11
2/24/2021 Alabama W, 81-66 1.5 W 16.5 157.5 UNDER -10.5
2/27/2021 LSU W, 83-75 -5.5 W 2.5 162.5 UNDER -4.5
3/2/2021 at South Carolina W, 101-73 -6.5 W 21.5 156.5 OVER 17.5
3/6/2021 Texas A&M W, 87-80 -14.5 L -7.5 136.5 OVER 30.5
3/12/2021 vs. Missouri W, 70-64 -5 W 1 150 UNDER -16
3/13/2021 vs. LSU L, 71-78 -3.5 L -10.5 162.5 UNDER -13.5
3/19/2021 vs. Colgate W, 85-68 -8.5 W 8.5 161.5 UNDER -8.5
3/21/2021 vs. Texas Tech W, 68-66 1.5 W 3.5 141 UNDER -7
3/27/2021 vs. Oral Roberts W, 72-70 -11.5 L -9.5 157 UNDER -15

Head to Head

Arkansas is 2-0-0 against the spread when it plays against Texas Tech in recorded games since 2019. The over has hit in 0 out of 2 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
1/26/2019 at Texas Tech L, 64-67 10 W 7 136.5 UNDER -5.5
3/21/2021 vs. Texas Tech W, 68-66 1.5 W 3.5 141 UNDER -7

Texas Tech ATS Performance

This Season

Texas Tech is 14-15-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 12 of 29 Texas Tech games (41.4%) this season.

Texas Tech is 1-4-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 1 of Texas Tech’s 5 games on neutral floors (20%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 Northwestern State W, 101-58 -24.5 W 18.5 146.5 OVER 12.5
11/27/2020 Sam Houston State W, 84-52 -30.5 W 1.5 145.5 UNDER -9.5
11/29/2020 vs. Houston L, 53-64 -2.5 L -13.5 129.5 UNDER -12.5
12/4/2020 Troy W, 80-46 -26.5 W 7.5 136.5 UNDER -10.5
12/6/2020 Grambling W, 81-40 -32 W 9 132.5 UNDER -11.5
12/9/2020 Abilene Christian W, 51-44 -15.5 L -8.5 131.5 UNDER -36.5
12/12/2020 vs. Texas A&M-CC W, 77-57 -26.5 L -6.5 129.5 OVER 4.5
12/17/2020 Kansas L, 57-58 -1.5 L -2.5 131 UNDER -16
12/22/2020 at Oklahoma W, 69-67 -1.5 W 0.5 135.5 OVER 0.5
12/29/2020 Incarnate Word W, 79-51 -33.5 L -5.5 132.5 UNDER -2.5
1/2/2021 Oklahoma State L, 77-82 -8.5 L -13.5 134 OVER 25
1/5/2021 Kansas State W, 82-71 5.5 W 16.5 138.5 OVER 14.5
1/9/2021 at Iowa State W, 91-64 -7.5 W 19.5 133.5 OVER 21.5
1/13/2021 at Texas W, 79-77 3.5 W 5.5 135.5 OVER 20.5
1/16/2021 Baylor L, 60-68 5 L -3 138.5 UNDER -10.5
1/25/2021 at West Virginia L, 87-88 1.5 W 0.5 136.5 OVER 38.5
1/30/2021 at LSU W, 76-71 -3.5 W 1.5 150.5 UNDER -3.5
2/1/2021 Oklahoma W, 57-52 -6.5 L -1.5 138.5 UNDER -29.5
2/6/2021 at Kansas State W, 73-62 -16 L -5 130.5 OVER 4.5
2/9/2021 West Virginia L, 71-82 -6 L -17 140 OVER 13
2/20/2021 at Kansas L, 61-67 2 L -4 134 UNDER -6
2/22/2021 at Oklahoma State L, 69-74 -3.5 L -8.5 138.5 OVER 4.5
2/27/2021 Texas W, 68-59 -3.5 W 5.5 136 UNDER -9
3/2/2021 TCU W, 69-49 -12.5 W 7.5 132 UNDER -14
3/4/2021 Iowa State W, 81-54 -17 W 10 136.5 UNDER -1.5
3/7/2021 at Baylor L, 73-88 8.5 L -6.5 137.5 OVER 23.5
3/11/2021 vs. Texas L, 66-67 -1.5 L -2.5 135.5 UNDER -2.5
3/19/2021 vs. Utah State W, 65-53 -4.5 W 7.5 131.5 UNDER -13.5
3/21/2021 vs. Arkansas L, 66-68 -1.5 L -3.5 141 UNDER -7

Head to Head

Texas Tech is 0-2-0 against the spread when it plays against Arkansas in recorded games since 2019. The over has hit in 0 out of 2 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
1/26/2019 Arkansas W, 67-64 -10 L -7 136.5 UNDER -5.5
3/21/2021 vs. Arkansas L, 66-68 -1.5 L -3.5 141 UNDER -7
Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Justin Smith (03/23): Smith recorded 20 points (9-11 FG, 2-3 FT), six rebounds, two assists and one block during Sunday's NCAA Tournament win against Texas Tech.
  • Jaylin Williams (03/21): Williams is in the starting lineup for Sunday's game against Texas Tech, according to Scottie Bordelon of Arkansas Online.
  • Kyler Edwards (03/21): Edwards chipped in 12 points (3-8 FG, 2-5 3Pt, 4-4 FT), six rebounds, four assists, and three steals in the win over Utah State on Friday.
  • Mac McClung (03/21): McClung had a game-high 16 points (6-16 FG, 3-6 3Pt, 1-1 FT) and three rebounds in Friday's win over Utah State.
  • Jaylin Williams (03/20): Williams failed to score (0-1 FG) while recording three rebounds over six minutes during Friday's 85-68 win over Colgate.
  • Jamarius Burton (03/19): Burton (toe) returned to action in Friday's NCAA Tournament opener versus Utah State, posting two points (1-1 FG) over eight minutes.
  • Jamarius Burton (03/19): Burton (toe) is a game-time decision for Friday's NCAA Tournament game against Utah State, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Moses Moody (03/15): Moody recorded 28 points (8-16 FG, 4-10 3Pt, 8-12 FT), nine rebounds, two steals and one assist during Saturday's SEC Tournament loss to LSU.
  • Jaylin Williams (03/14): Head coach Eric Musselman confirmed after Saturday's 78-71 loss to LSU that Williams (COVID-19 protocol) will be back for the NCAA Tournament, Kyle Deckelbaum of KATV reports.
  • Jaylin Williams (03/13): Williams (COVID protocol) isn't available for Saturday's game against LSU, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Jaylin Williams (03/12): Williams (COVID-19 protocol) isn't expected to play in Friday's game against Missouri, Scottie Bordelon of the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette reports.
  • Jamarius Burton (03/10): Burton (toe) was spotted back at practice Wednesday, Chris Level of Rivals reports.
  • JD Notae (03/09): Notae was named the 2020-21 SEC Sixth Man of the Year on Tuesday.
  • Moses Moody (03/09): Moody was named the 2020-21 SEC Freshman of the Year on Tuesday.
  • Mac McClung (03/09): McClung was named the 2020-21 Big 12 Newcomer of the Year on Monday.
  • Jalen Tate (03/08): Tate tallied 22 points (9-17 FG, 2-6 3Pt, 2-2 FT), seven rebounds and four assists during Saturday's win over Texas A&;M.
  • Jaylin Williams (03/06): Williams (not injury related) will not be available for Saturday's game against Texas A&;M, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Jamarius Burton (03/04): Burton (toe) will miss another game Thursday versus Iowa State, Carlos Silva Jr. of the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal reports.
  • Jamarius Burton (03/02): Burton (toe) was spotted pregame in a walking boot, KTXT Sports reports.
  • Jaylin Williams (03/02): Williams will miss Tuesday's game against South Carolina due to COVID-19 protocol, Nikki Chavanelle of Rivals.com reports.
  • Justin Smith (03/01): Smith provided 19 points (8-12 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 2-2 FT), 10 rebounds, one assist, one block and one steal in Saturday's win over LSU.
  • Moses Moody (03/01): Moody tallied 18 points (3-14 FG, 1-5 3Pt, 11-14 FT), eight rebounds and five assists during Saturday's win over LSU.
  • Mac McClung (02/27): McClung notched a team-high 16 points (4-13 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 6-7 FT) and four rebounds in the win over Texas on Saturday.
  • Terrence Shannon (02/23): Shannon had a team-high 18 points (6-16 FG, 1-5 3Pt, 5-8 FT) to go along with three rebounds, an assist and a a steal across 38 minutes in Monday's 74-69 loss to Oklahoma State.
  • Jamarius Burton (02/22): Burton won't play in Monday's game against Oklahoma State due to a toe injury, Carlos Silva Jr. of the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal reports.