Preview: Syracuse vs. Houston

Game Syracuse Orange vs. Houston Cougars
Date: March 27th, 2021 9:55 PM
TV: TBS
Spread: HOU -6.5
Total: 140

Preview

Syracuse Offense vs. Houston Defense

Syracuse checks in at 22nd nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Orange shoot 50.7 percent on twos and 34.6 percent on threes for a 51.2 effective field goal percentage.

Houston is ranked 10th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Houston opponents make 42.6 percent of their twos and 29 percent of their threes for a 42.9 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
  • Houston’s defense has been struggling over the last month. The Cougars are ranked 33rd in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 10th for the season.
  • The Orange are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 78.05 inches according to KenPom.com.
  • The Orange have a notable size advantage on the inside, their power forwards and centers rank in the 76th percentile in height compared to Houston’s bigs which rank in the 25th percentile.
  • Houston can get into trouble given its tendency to commit fouls. The Cougars send their opponents to the free-throw line 42 times per 100 shot attempts. That’s one of the worst rates in the country and Syracuse gets to the stripe 28 times per 100 field goal attempts.
  • You can trust Syracuse at the line in a close game. The Orange shoot 78 percent at the line for the season.
Extra Possessions
  • Syracuse does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Orange only turn it over on 16.3 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a Houston defense that forces giveaways on 21.6 percent of possessions.
  • Syracuse is unique because its guards are aggressive on the offensive glass. Perimeter players account for 30.9 percent of the Orange’ offensive boards. That should put extra pressure on Houston’s perimeter players to clean up the glass.
Shot Profile
  • Syracuse’s offensive attack is perimeter-oriented. The Orange attempt 41 percent of their shots from 3-point range.
  • Syracuse’s offense doesn’t have a single player shooting 38% or better from 3-point range with over 50 attempts.
  • Houston is one of the best teams in the country at defending around the basket. Cougars opponents are shooting just 51 percent at the rim. Syracuse is usually very good at creating quality looks around the basket — finishing 59 percent of its shots withing five-feet — which sets up an interesting battle inside.
  • Syracuse’s offense is heavy on mid-range jumpers. The Orange attempt 27 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 40 percent clip.
  • Houston’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Cougars opponents attempt 25 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 29 percent clip. Syracuse’s offense shoots 40 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Syracuse is one of the better passing teams in the country and 56 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season.
  • Syracuse’s offense is overweight on off-ball screens and cuts compared to the rest of the field and should test Houston’s defensive discipline off the ball. The Orange average 10.5 points per game via cuts and off-ball screens, scoring 1.09 points per play on those actions. Houston’s defense excels at defending off-ball sets, allowing just 0.79 points per play.
  • Syracuse trusts its players to create in one-on-one situations and scores 8.9 points per game out of iso actions at 0.88 points per play. Houston’s defense excels at defending one-on-one, allowing just 0.63 points per isolation play.

Houston Offense vs. Syracuse Defense

The Cougars are ranked 6th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Houston shoots 49.9 percent on twos and 34.9 percent on threes for a 50.9 effective field goal percentage.

Syracuse’s defense is ranked 70th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 48.5 percent on twos and 31.6 percent on threes for a 48 effective field goal percentage against the Orange.

Basics
  • Houston plays at a deliberate pace. The Cougars average 65 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball.
  • Syracuse plays primarily zone defense. The Orange utilize zone defense on 79.1 percent of their defensive plays, per Synergy. That’s one of the highest rates in the country and they allow 0.82 points per play in zone defense. Houston has been fairly average against zone defenses this year, scoring just 0.95 points per play.
  • Houston makes 74 percent of its free throws which should come in handy in a close game.
Extra Possessions
  • Houston does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Cougars only turn it over on 16.3 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a Syracuse defense that forces giveaways on 20.1 percent of possessions.
  • Houston does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Cougars score 17.3 points points per game off of turnovers. Syracuse avoids turnovers for touchdowns, allowing only 11.4 points per game off of giveaways.
  • Houston is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Cougars grab 40.2 percent of their missed shots. Syracuse is one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country and allows opposing offenses to grab 65.9 percent of their misses. That means that Cougars should be able to create a significant advantage on the boards.
  • Second chance points are crucial to Houston’s offense. The Cougars score 14.4 points off of second chances and only allow 8.4 points per game, outscoring teams by 6.0 points per game just on second chance opportunities. Syracuse has struggled on the glass and has been outscored by 1.0 points per game in the paint.
Shot Profile
  • Houston’s offensive attack is perimeter-oriented. The Cougars attempt 42 percent of their shots from 3-point range. The Cougars also make a lot of those attempts, shooting 35 percent from outside the arc. Syracuse’s defense is vulnerable against the three, allowing its opponents to attempt 44 percent of their shots from outside the arc.
  • Houston is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Cougars shoot 62 percent at the rim and Syracuse allows 55 percent shooting inside of five feet.
  • Houston’s offense is heavy on mid-range jumpers. The Cougars attempt 27 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 37 percent clip.
Style
  • Syracuse’s has the tendency to over-help on defense and its opponents record assists on 68.3 percent of made baskets.
  • Houston runs more isolation sets than the average Division I team. The Cougars score 8.2 points per game out of ISO sets at 0.83 points per play. Syracuse’s defense struggles to defend isolation actions. Opponents score 1.31 points per isolation play (including pass-outs) against the Orange.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik projects a 74-65 Houston win over Syracuse and gives the Cougars a 81 percent chance at picking up the victory.

SYR Personnel

#35 Buddy Boeheim

Role: Runaround Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 195 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Off Screen Shooter Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Poor Finisher Takes Tough Shots Minutes Logger Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
17.8 2.6 2.5 112.6 22.9% 53.6%
🔥🔥🔥: Boeheim is averaging 25 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 7.2 points above his season average.

#1 Quincy Guerrier

Role: Reluctant Shooter
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 220 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Isolation Scorer Offensive Rebounder Smart Shot Selection Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
13.7 8.4 0.8 113.8 20.1% 53.2%

#0 Alan Griffin

Role: Runaround Wing
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 190 lbs

Off Screen Shooter Transition Scorer Rim Protector Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
13.2 5.8 1.9 105.7 23.5% 52%
❄️❄️❄️: Griffin is averaging 4 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 9.2 points below his season average.

#21 Marek Dolezaj

Role: Pick and Pop Big
Height: 6'10" | Weight: 201 lbs

Glue Guy Mid-Range Specialist Isolation Scorer Non Shooter Takes Tough Shots Gets to the Line Minutes Logger Cut and Finish Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.8 5.2 3.2 120.4 15.0% 54.1%

#11 Joseph Girard

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 195 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Poor Finisher Takes Tough Shots
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.8 2.9 3.6 96.6 22.3% 45.3%

HOU Personnel

#24 Quentin Grimes

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 205 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Transition Scorer Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Go-To Guy Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
18 6 1.8 117.9 25.8% 52.7%

#0 Marcus Sasser

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 190 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Off the Dribble Shooter Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
13.2 2.5 2.2 114.1 20.5% 48.9%

#3 DeJon Jarreau

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 185 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
11.2 5.6 4.4 111.6 23.5% 50.4%

#4 Justin Gorham

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 225 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Stretch Big Man Offensive Rebounder Smart Shot Selection Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.6 8.8 1.2 131.6 15.8% 55.3%

#12 Tramon Mark

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 180 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8 3.1 1.8 105.0 23.0% 42.5%

ATS

Houston ATS Performance

This Season

Houston is 20-9-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 14 of 29 Houston games (48.3%) this season.

Houston is 5-2-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 3 of Houston’s 7 games on neutral floors (42.9%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 Lamar W, 89-45 -21.5 W 22.5 138.5 UNDER -4.5
11/27/2020 Boise State W, 68-58 -11.5 L -1.5 144.5 UNDER -18.5
11/29/2020 vs. Texas Tech W, 64-53 2.5 W 13.5 129.5 UNDER -12.5
12/5/2020 South Carolina W, 77-67 -9.5 W 0.5 140.5 OVER 3.5
12/20/2020 Alcorn State W, 88-55 -34.5 L -1.5 142 OVER 1
12/22/2020 Temple W, 76-50 -16.5 W 9.5 134.5 UNDER -8.5
12/26/2020 at UCF W, 63-54 -7.5 W 1.5 134.5 UNDER -17.5
12/29/2020 at Tulsa L, 64-65 -7.5 L -8.5 128.5 OVER 0.5
1/3/2021 at SMU W, 74-60 -1.5 W 12.5 134 UNDER 0
1/6/2021 Wichita State W, 70-63 -11.5 L -4.5 136 UNDER -3
1/9/2021 Tulane W, 71-50 -19 W 2 128.5 UNDER -7.5
1/17/2021 UCF W, 75-58 -13.5 W 3.5 129.5 OVER 3.5
1/20/2021 Tulsa W, 86-59 -12 W 15 124.5 OVER 20.5
1/23/2021 at Temple W, 68-51 -11.5 W 5.5 131 UNDER -12
1/28/2021 at Tulane W, 83-60 -17.5 W 5.5 127.5 OVER 15.5
1/31/2021 SMU W, 70-48 -10.5 W 11.5 139.5 UNDER -21.5
2/3/2021 at East Carolina L, 73-82 -16.5 L -25.5 132.5 OVER 22.5
2/10/2021 at South Florida W, 82-65 -11.5 W 5.5 128.5 OVER 18.5
2/18/2021 at Wichita State L, 63-68 -8 L -13 137.5 UNDER -6.5
2/21/2021 Cincinnati W, 90-52 -12.5 W 25.5 135.5 OVER 6.5
2/25/2021 Western Kentucky W, 81-57 -11.5 W 12.5 136 OVER 2
2/28/2021 South Florida W, 98-52 -18.5 W 27.5 132 OVER 18
3/7/2021 Memphis W, 67-64 -10 L -7 134.5 UNDER -3.5
3/12/2021 vs. Tulane W, 77-52 -17.5 W 7.5 132 UNDER -3
3/13/2021 vs. Memphis W, 76-74 -7.5 L -5.5 132.5 OVER 17.5
3/14/2021 vs. Cincinnati W, 91-54 -13.5 W 23.5 136.5 OVER 8.5
3/19/2021 vs. Cleveland State W, 87-56 -20 W 11 135 OVER 8
3/21/2021 vs. Rutgers W, 63-60 -8 L -5 131.5 UNDER -8.5
3/27/2021 vs. Syracuse W, 62-46 -6.5 W 9.5 140 UNDER -32

Head to Head

Houston is 1-0-0 against the spread when it plays against Syracuse in recorded games since 2021. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/27/2021 vs. Syracuse W, 62-46 -6.5 W 9.5 140 UNDER -32

Syracuse ATS Performance

This Season

Syracuse is 13-15-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 14 of 28 Syracuse games (50%) this season.

Syracuse is 4-1-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 3 of Syracuse’s 5 games on neutral floors (60%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/27/2020 Bryant W, 85-84 -23 L -22 144 OVER 25
12/3/2020 Niagara W, 75-45 -21 W 9 144 UNDER -24
12/5/2020 Rider W, 87-52 -20.5 W 14.5 145.5 UNDER -6.5
12/8/2020 at Rutgers L, 69-79 3.5 L -6.5 141.5 OVER 6.5
12/12/2020 at Boston College W, 101-63 -3 W 35 150.5 OVER 13.5
12/16/2020 Northeastern W, 62-56 -17.5 L -11.5 146.5 UNDER -28.5
12/19/2020 Buffalo W, 107-96 -12.5 L -1.5 152.5 OVER 50.5
1/6/2021 Pittsburgh L, 60-63 -11.5 L -14.5 139.5 UNDER -16.5
1/9/2021 Georgetown W, 74-69 -10.5 L -5.5 146.5 UNDER -3.5
1/12/2021 at North Carolina L, 75-81 3.5 L -2.5 143.5 OVER 12.5
1/16/2021 at Pittsburgh L, 76-96 -4.5 L -24.5 139.5 OVER 32.5
1/19/2021 Miami W, 83-57 -5.5 W 20.5 142 UNDER -2
1/23/2021 Virginia Tech W, 78-60 -1 W 17 141.5 UNDER -3.5
1/25/2021 at Virginia L, 58-81 7 L -16 129.5 OVER 9.5
1/31/2021 NC State W, 76-73 -5.5 L -2.5 148 OVER 1
2/6/2021 at Clemson L, 61-78 3.5 L -13.5 134.5 OVER 4.5
2/9/2021 at NC State W, 77-68 2 W 11 148 UNDER -3
2/13/2021 Boston College W, 75-67 -11.5 L -3.5 149.5 UNDER -7.5
2/20/2021 Notre Dame W, 75-67 -2.5 W 5.5 150.5 UNDER -8.5
2/22/2021 at Duke L, 71-85 5.5 L -8.5 149 OVER 7
2/27/2021 at Georgia Tech L, 77-84 4.5 L -2.5 144.5 OVER 16.5
3/1/2021 North Carolina W, 72-70 1 W 3 149 UNDER -7
3/3/2021 Clemson W, 64-54 -2.5 W 7.5 135.5 UNDER -17.5
3/10/2021 vs. NC State W, 89-68 -2 W 19 146 OVER 11
3/11/2021 vs. Virginia L, 69-72 5.5 W 2.5 133 OVER 8
3/19/2021 vs. San Diego State W, 78-62 3 W 19 138.5 OVER 1.5
3/21/2021 vs. West Virginia W, 75-72 4 W 7 147 UNDER 0
3/27/2021 vs. Houston L, 46-62 6.5 L -9.5 140 UNDER -32

Head to Head

Syracuse is 0-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Houston in recorded games since 2021. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/27/2021 vs. Houston L, 46-62 6.5 L -9.5 140 UNDER -32
Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Justin Gorham (03/28): Gorham had 13 points (4-6 FG, 5-6 FT), 10 rebounds and two assists in 28 minutes during Saturday's 62-46 win over Syracuse.
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/28): Jarreau had nine points (3-8 FG, 0-3 3Pt, 3-6 FT), eight rebounds, eight assists, a steal and a block in 34 minutes during Saturday's 62-46 win over Syracuse in the Sweet 16.
  • Buddy Boeheim (03/28): Boeheim finished with 12 points (3-13 FG, 1-9 3Pt, 5-7 FT), six rebounds, two steals and an assist across 36 minutes in Saturday's loss against Houston.
  • Joseph Girard (03/28): Girard had 12 points (4-10 FG, 2-5 3Pt, 2-2 FT), a rebound and an assist across 23 minutes in Saturday's loss against Houston.
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/27): Jarreau (hip) is starting Saturday's NCAA Tournament game against Syracuse, Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle reports.
  • Marek Dolezaj (03/22): Dolezaj had 12 points (4-6 FG, 4-4 FT), six rebounds, five assists, two steals and a block across 37 minutes in Sunday's win over West Virginia.
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/22): Jarreau finished the game with 17 points (6-12 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 3-4 FT, five rebounds and two assists across 32 minutes in Sunday's 63-60 victory over Rutgers.
  • Quentin Grimes (03/21): Grimes had a game-high 22 points (7-15 FG, 5-9 3Pt, 3-6 FT), nine rebounds and two steals across 40 minutes in Sunday's 63-60 victory over Rutgers.
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/21): Jarreau (hip) returned to action Sunday against Rutgers following a hip problem.
  • Buddy Boeheim (03/21): Boeheim had 25 points (8-17 FG, 6-13 3Pt, 3-4 FT), three rebounds, two steals and an assist in Sunday's win over West Virginia.
  • Joseph Girard (03/20): Girard ended with 12 points (3-10 FG, 3-8 3Pt, 3-3 FT), seven assists and six rebounds across 28 minutes in Friday's win over San Diego State.
  • Buddy Boeheim (03/20): Boeheim notched 30 points (11-15 FG, 7-10 3Pt, 1-1 FT) and four rebounds during Friday's win over San Diego State.
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/20): Jarreau (hip) will practice Saturday, though it's unclear to what extent he'll participate, Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle reports.
  • J'wan Roberts (03/19): Roberts (thumb) was held scoreless with one rebound over two minutes in Friday's 87-56 win over Cleveland State.
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/19): Jarreau (hip) is unlikely to play in Sunday's game, Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle reports.
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/19): Jarreau suffered a hip injury during the first half of Friday's game against Cleveland State and is questionable to return, Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle reports.
  • J'wan Roberts (03/19): Roberts (thumb) is a game-time decision for Friday's NCAA Tournament matchup with Cleveland State, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • J'wan Roberts (03/17): Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson said Roberts (thumb) returned to practice Tuesday, leaving the door open for the freshman forward to play Friday in the Cougars' matchup with Cleveland State in the opening round of the NCAA tournament, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/13): Jarreau had 15 points (5-10 FG, 0-3 3Pt, 5-5 FT), 10 rebounds and 10 assists across 34 minutes in Friday's 77-52 victory over Tulane.
  • Brison Gresham (03/12): Gresham will come off the bench for Friday's AAC Tournament game against Tulane, Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle reports.
  • Reggie Chaney (03/12): Chaney is in the starting lineup for Friday's game against Tulane, Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle reports.
  • Quincy Guerrier (03/12): Guerrier notched 14 points (6-14 FG, 0-3 3Pt, 2-6 FT), 10 rebounds, two steals and an assist across 39 minutes in Thursday's loss against Virginia.
  • J'wan Roberts (03/12): Roberts (thumb) will remain out for Friday's AAC Tournament game against Tulane, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Buddy Boeheim (03/11): Boeheim had 31 points (10-17 FG, 5-8 3Pt, 6-6 FT), three assists and two rebounds across 39 minutes in Thursday's 72-69 loss to Virginia.
  • Joseph Girard (03/11): Girard had 14 points (4-12 FG, 2-6 3Pt, 4-5 FT), three assists and a rebound across 33 minutes in Wednesday's win over NC State.