Preview: Oregon vs. USC

Game Oregon Ducks vs. USC Trojans
Date: March 28th, 2021 9:50 PM
TV: TBS
Spread: USC -2 Open -1
Total: 138.5 Open: 139

Preview

Oregon Offense vs. USC Defense

The Ducks are ranked 11th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Oregon shoots 52.9 percent on twos and 37.7 percent on threes for a 54.3 effective field goal percentage.

USC’s defense is ranked 6th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 41.5 percent on twos and 33.3 percent on threes for a 44.5 effective field goal percentage against the Trojans.

Basics
  • Oregon is one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, averaging 2.27 years of experience weighted by minutes played, per KenPom.com.
  • According to KenPom, Oregon is one of the “luckier” teams in the field, ranked 76th nationally in luck, meaning that they’ve won more games than their adjusted efficiency margin stats would indicate.
  • The Ducks are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 77.59 inches according to KenPom.com. USC should match up well against the Ducks’ size, with an average height of 79.38 inches.
  • USC plays a notable amount of zone defense. The Trojans utilize zone defense on 13.7 percent of their defensive plays, per Synergy. That’s more than most Division I teams and they allow 0.7 points per play in zone defense. Oregon has been fairly average against zone defenses this year, scoring just 0.91 points per play.
Extra Possessions
  • Oregon does a great job of valuing the basketball, turnovers on just 16.8 percent of possessions, and USC’s defense doesn’t prioritize forcing giveaways. The Trojans only force giveaways on 17 percent of opponent possessions, so expect a low turnover performance by Oregon’s offense.
  • Oregon does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Ducks score 17.4 points points per game off of turnovers. USC avoids turnovers for touchdowns, allowing only 11.2 points per game off of giveaways.
Shot Profile
  • USC does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, USC contests 59 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Oregon’s offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 53 percent of the Ducks’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • Oregon dominates the paint. The Ducks score 35.1 points and allow 28.3 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 6.8 points per game. USC has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 10.9 points per game in the paint.
  • Oregon is a tough scout because its bigs can stretch the floor. The Ducks have one big with at least 75 3-point attempts including Eugene Omoruyi.
  • USC’s defense excels around the bucket, allowing 48 percent shooting within five-feet of the rim. Oregon is generally a great finishing team, making 59 percent of its shots at the bucket — setting up a key battle inside.
  • USC’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Trojans opponents attempt 31 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 34 percent clip. Oregon’s offense shoots 39 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Oregon’s offense incorporates more off-ball actions and screens than the average Division I team. The Ducks score 8.8 points per game off of off-ball actions at 1.04 points per play. USC’s defense excels at defending off-ball sets, allowing just 0.91 points per play.
  • Oregon runs a lot of isolation actions. The Ducks score 6.8 points per game out of isolation at 0.83 points per play. USC’s defense is fairly average defending isolations. Opponents score 0.83 points per isolation action (including pass-outs) against the Trojans.

USC Offense vs. Oregon Defense

The Trojans are ranked 16th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. USC shoots 52.5 percent on twos and 36.3 percent on threes for a 53.1 effective field goal percentage.

Oregon’s defense is ranked 81st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 50.4 percent on twos and 34.3 percent on threes for a 50.8 effective field goal percentage against the Ducks.

Basics
  • Oregon’s defense needs to get back on track in the NCAA Tournament. Over the last 30 days, the Ducks are ranked 152nd in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to 81st overall.
  • USC is underseeded according to efficiency metrics. The 6th seeded Trojans are ranked 6th nationally per Bart Torvik. Their computer numbers suggest they should be closer to a 1 or 2 seed.
  • The Trojans have a notable size advantage on the inside, their power forwards and centers rank in the 99th percentile in height compared to Oregon’s bigs which rank in the 17th percentile.
  • Oregon plays a notable amount of zone defense. The Ducks utilize zone defense on 21.7 percent of their defensive plays, per Synergy. That’s more than most Division I teams and they allow 0.85 points per play in zone defense. USC has been fairly average against zone defenses this year, scoring just 0.98 points per play.
  • USC does a great job attacking full-court pressure defenses, scoring 0.96 points per play. Oregon’s applies full court pressure on 26.6 percent of possessions which should allow the Trojans to create an offensive advantage.
  • USC is one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in college hoops, making just 65 percent of its freebies.
Extra Possessions
  • The game should be fairly turnover neutral on this side of the ball. USC turns it over on 18.1 percent of possessions and Oregon forces giveaways on 20.2 percent of possessions.
  • USC is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Trojans grab 35.8 percent of their missed shots. Oregon is average on the defensive glass, grabbing 72 percent of opponent misses, and that matchup on the boards will be a key swing stat on Sunday.
  • Second chance points are crucial to USC’s offense. The Trojans score 12.0 points off of second chances and only allow 9.2 points per game, outscoring teams by 2.8 points per game just on second chance opportunities.
Shot Profile
  • USC’s offensive attack is interior-focused. The Trojans only attempt 31 percent of their shots from 3-point range. Despite not being a high volume 3-point shooting team, USC shoots an impressive 36 percent from outside the arc.
  • USC dominates the paint. The Trojans score 35.1 points and allow 24.2 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 10.9 points per game. Oregon has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 6.8 points per game in the paint.
  • USC is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Trojans shoot 60 percent at the rim and Oregon allows 57 percent shooting inside of five feet.
  • USC’s offense is heavy on mid-range jumpers. The Trojans attempt 30 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 42 percent clip.
Style

Bottom Line

According to Bart Torvik, USC is a 72-67 favorite with a 68 percent chance of advancing.

ORE Personnel

#2 Eugene Omoruyi

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 235 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Stretch Big Man Pick and Pop Roll Man Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Mega Usage
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
17.1 5.4 2.2 111.6 30.3% 53.1%

#5 Chris Duarte

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 190 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Minutes Logger Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
17.1 4.7 2.6 120.6 23.4% 63.3%

#30 LJ Figueroa

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 200 lbs

Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.3 6.1 1.4 117.8 19.5% 55.1%

#50 Eric Williams

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 200 lbs

Corner 3-Point Specialist Poor Finisher Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10 6 1.6 106.1 19.5% 46.6%

#0 Will Richardson

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 170 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Glue Guy Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
11.2 3.4 3.9 106.8 20.6% 53.2%

USC Personnel

#4 Evan Mobley

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 7'0" | Weight: 210 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Pick and Pop Roll Man Mid-Range Specialist Rim Protector Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Gets to the Line Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
16.3 8.7 2.4 119.9 24.1% 60.5%

#2 Tahj Eaddy

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 165 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Mid-Range Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
13.8 2.8 2.6 117.7 20.6% 54.7%

#13 Drew Peterson

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 185 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Mid-Range Specialist Takes Tough Shots
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.6 5.1 2.8 106.4 19.8% 49%

#3 Isaiah Mobley

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'10" | Weight: 235 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Mid-Range Specialist Offensive Rebounder Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.4 7.4 1.6 106.6 20.8% 48.5%

#5 Isaiah White

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 205 lbs

Pick Pocket Smart Shot Selection Gets to the Line
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
7.9 3.4 0.9 112.5 19.2% 57.2%
🔥🔥🔥: White is averaging 10.6 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 2.7 points above his season average.

ATS

USC ATS Performance

This Season

USC is 19-13-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 17 of 32 USC games (53.1%) this season.

USC is 4-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 4 of USC’s 7 games on neutral floors (57.1%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 California Baptist W, 95-87 -18.5 L -10.5 148.5 OVER 33.5
11/28/2020 Montana W, 76-62 -11.5 W 2.5 141 UNDER -3
12/1/2020 vs. BYU W, 79-53 -3.5 W 22.5 147.5 UNDER -15.5
12/3/2020 vs. UConn L, 58-61 -1 L -4 142 UNDER -23
12/8/2020 UC Irvine W, 91-56 -11.5 W 23.5 136.5 OVER 10.5
12/29/2020 Santa Clara W, 86-63 -11 W 12 134.5 OVER 14.5
12/31/2020 Colorado L, 62-72 -2 L -12 139.5 UNDER -5.5
1/2/2021 Utah W, 64-46 -5 W 13 138.5 UNDER -28.5
1/7/2021 at Arizona W, 87-73 4.5 W 18.5 140.5 OVER 19.5
1/9/2021 at Arizona State W, 73-64 -1.5 W 7.5 149 UNDER -12
1/12/2021 UC Riverside W, 67-62 -14 L -9 132.5 UNDER -3.5
1/14/2021 Washington W, 95-68 -14 W 13 138.5 OVER 24.5
1/16/2021 Washington State W, 85-77 -13 L -5 133.5 OVER 28.5
1/19/2021 at Oregon State L, 56-58 -10.5 L -12.5 138.5 UNDER -24.5
1/23/2021 at California W, 76-68 -8.5 L -0.5 135.5 OVER 8.5
1/28/2021 Oregon State W, 75-62 -12 W 1 135.5 OVER 1.5
2/2/2021 at Stanford W, 72-66 -2 W 4 137.5 OVER 0.5
2/6/2021 UCLA W, 66-48 -3.5 W 14.5 135.5 UNDER -21.5
2/11/2021 at Washington W, 69-54 -11.5 W 3.5 145.5 UNDER -22.5
2/13/2021 at Washington State W, 76-65 -8 W 3 132.5 OVER 8.5
2/17/2021 Arizona State W, 89-71 -11.5 W 6.5 146 OVER 14
2/20/2021 Arizona L, 72-81 -5.5 L -14.5 139.5 OVER 13.5
2/22/2021 Oregon W, 72-58 -3.5 W 10.5 140 UNDER -10
2/25/2021 at Colorado L, 62-80 3 L -15 136.5 OVER 5.5
2/27/2021 at Utah L, 61-71 -5.5 L -15.5 138 UNDER -6
3/3/2021 Stanford W, 79-42 -7.5 W 29.5 137 UNDER -16
3/6/2021 at UCLA W, 64-63 -2.5 L -1.5 135.5 UNDER -8.5
3/11/2021 vs. Utah W, 91-85 -7 L -1 141 OVER 35
3/12/2021 vs. Colorado L, 70-72 1.5 L -0.5 134 OVER 8
3/20/2021 vs. Drake W, 72-56 -6.5 W 9.5 138.5 UNDER -10.5
3/22/2021 vs. Kansas W, 85-51 -1.5 W 32.5 134.5 OVER 1.5
3/28/2021 vs. Oregon W, 82-68 -2 W 12 138 OVER 12

Head to Head

USC is 6-2-0 against the spread when it plays against Oregon in recorded games since 2018. The over has hit in 3 out of 8 recorded head-to-head games (37.5%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
1/18/2018 at Oregon W, 75-70 3.5 W 8.5 152 UNDER -7
2/15/2018 Oregon W, 72-70 -5 L -3 146.5 UNDER -4.5
3/9/2018 vs. Oregon W, 74-54 -3 W 17 138 UNDER -10
1/13/2019 at Oregon L, 60-81 4 L -17 138 OVER 3
2/21/2019 Oregon W, 66-49 -2 W 15 137 UNDER -22
1/23/2020 at Oregon L, 70-79 10 W 1 139.5 OVER 9.5
2/22/2021 Oregon W, 72-58 -3.5 W 10.5 140 UNDER -10
3/28/2021 vs. Oregon W, 82-68 -2 W 12 138 OVER 12

Oregon ATS Performance

This Season

Oregon is 16-12-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 19 of 28 Oregon games (67.9%) this season.

Oregon is 3-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 6 of Oregon’s 6 games on neutral floors (100%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
12/2/2020 vs. Missouri L, 75-83 5 L -3 136 OVER 22
12/4/2020 vs. Seton Hall W, 83-70 -2.5 W 10.5 142 OVER 11
12/7/2020 Eastern Washington W, 69-52 -13.5 W 3.5 142.5 UNDER -21.5
12/9/2020 Florida A&M W, 87-66 -25.5 L -4.5 135.5 OVER 17.5
12/12/2020 at Washington W, 74-71 -8.5 L -5.5 134.5 OVER 10.5
12/17/2020 San Francisco W, 74-64 -7 W 3 146 UNDER -8
12/19/2020 Portland W, 80-41 -22.5 W 16.5 145 UNDER -24
12/31/2020 California W, 82-69 -14 L -1 134 OVER 17
1/2/2021 Stanford W, 73-56 -5.5 W 11.5 141 UNDER -12
1/7/2021 at Colorado L, 72-79 2.5 L -4.5 140.5 OVER 10.5
1/9/2021 at Utah W, 79-73 -1.5 W 4.5 138.5 OVER 13.5
1/23/2021 Oregon State L, 64-75 -9 L -20 137 OVER 2
2/4/2021 Washington State L, 71-74 -12 L -15 134 OVER 11
2/6/2021 Washington W, 86-74 -12.5 L -0.5 147 OVER 13
2/11/2021 at Arizona State W, 75-64 2 W 13 152.5 UNDER -13.5
2/13/2021 at Arizona W, 63-61 2 W 4 145.5 UNDER -21.5
2/18/2021 Colorado W, 60-56 -1.5 W 2.5 141 UNDER -25
2/20/2021 Utah W, 67-64 -9 L -6 137 UNDER -6
2/22/2021 at USC L, 58-72 3.5 L -10.5 140 UNDER -10
2/25/2021 at Stanford W, 71-68 1 W 4 136.5 OVER 2.5
2/27/2021 at California W, 74-63 -9.5 W 1.5 133 OVER 4
3/1/2021 Arizona W, 80-69 -5 W 6 141.5 OVER 7.5
3/3/2021 UCLA W, 82-74 -4 W 4 134 OVER 22
3/7/2021 at Oregon State W, 80-67 -5.5 W 7.5 136.5 OVER 10.5
3/11/2021 vs. Arizona State W, 91-73 -8.5 W 9.5 147.5 OVER 16.5
3/12/2021 vs. Oregon State L, 64-75 -8.5 L -19.5 137.5 OVER 1.5
3/22/2021 vs. Iowa W, 95-80 4 W 19 147 OVER 28
3/28/2021 vs. USC L, 68-82 2 L -12 138 OVER 12

Head to Head

Oregon is 2-6-0 against the spread when it plays against USC in recorded games since 2018. The over has hit in 3 out of 8 recorded head-to-head games (37.5%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
1/18/2018 USC L, 70-75 -3.5 L -8.5 152 UNDER -7
2/15/2018 at USC L, 70-72 5 W 3 146.5 UNDER -4.5
3/9/2018 vs. USC L, 54-74 3 L -17 138 UNDER -10
1/13/2019 USC W, 81-60 -4 W 17 138 OVER 3
2/21/2019 at USC L, 49-66 2 L -15 137 UNDER -22
1/23/2020 USC W, 79-70 -10 L -1 139.5 OVER 9.5
2/22/2021 at USC L, 58-72 3.5 L -10.5 140 UNDER -10
3/28/2021 vs. USC L, 68-82 2 L -12 138 OVER 12
Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Evan Mobley (03/23): Mobley recorded 10 points (4-6 FG, 0-0 3Pt, 2-4 FT), 13 rebounds and five assists in 27 minutes during Monday's 85-51 win over Kansas.
  • Isaiah Mobley (03/23): Mobley posted 17 points (6-14 FG, 4-5 3Pt, 1-1 FT), eight rebounds and four assists across 31 minutes in Monday's 85-51 victory over Kansas.
  • Will Richardson (03/22): Richardson recorded 19 points (7-10 FG, 3-4 3Pt, 2-2 FT), six rebounds and seven assists in 40 minutes during Monday's 95-80 win over Iowa.
  • Chris Duarte (03/22): Duarte posted 23 points (9-12 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 4-5 FT), three rebounds and seven assists across 32 minutes in Monday's 95-80 victory over Iowa.
  • Drew Peterson (03/21): Peterson recorded 14 points (5-10 FG, 1-1 3Pt, 3-5 FT), two rebounds and two assists in 28 minutes during Saturday's 72-56 win over Drake.
  • Tahj Eaddy (03/21): Eaddy tallied nine points (4-11 FG, 1-5 3Pt, 0-1 FT), six rebounds and 10 assists across 33 minutes in Saturday's 72-56 win over Drake.
  • Chris Duarte (03/20): Duarte and Oregon won't play VCU in the NCAA Tournament on Saturday since the game was declared a no contest due COVID-19 issues within the VCU program, Jon reports. Oregon will advance to the next round as a result.
  • Eugene Omoruyi (03/20): Omoruyi and Oregon won't play VCU in the NCAA Tournament on Saturday since the game was declared a no contest due COVID-19 issues within the VCU program, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports. Oregon will advance to the next round as a result.
  • Evan Mobley (03/13): Mobley recorded 26 points (11-16 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 3-7 FT), nine rebounds and three assists in 39 minutes during Friday's 72-70 loss to Colorado.
  • LJ Figueroa (03/12): Figueroa recorded 14 points (4-13 FG, 3-9 3Pt, 3-3 FT), three rebounds and zero assists in 36 minutes during Friday's 75-64 loss to Oregon St.
  • Evan Mobley (03/12): Mobley tallied 26 points (7-14 FG, 1-1 3Pt, 11-14 FT), nine rebounds and two assists across 37 minutes in Thursday's 91-85 double overtime victory over Utah.
  • Eugene Omoruyi (03/12): Omoruyi tallied 15 points (6-12 FG, 3-4 3Pt, 0-1 FT), six rebounds and two assists in 30 minutes during Thursday's 91-73 victory over Arizona St.
  • Isaiah White (03/12): White recorded 14 points (6-10 FG, 1-4 3Pt, 1-2 FT), five rebounds and one assist in 25 minutes during Thursday's 91-85 double overtime victory over Utah.
  • Will Richardson (03/11): Richardson had 17 points (6-9 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 3-3 FT), nine assists, seven rebounds and two steals across 35 minutes in Thursday's 91-73 victory over Arizona State.
  • Isaiah White (03/11): White (back) is expected to take the floor Thursday against Utah, Ryan Kartje of the Los Angeles Times reports.
  • Evan Mobley (03/09): Mobley was named the 2020-21 Pac-12 Player of the Year on Tuesday, in addition to being given Defensive Player of the Year and Freshman of the Year honors.
  • Eric Williams (03/08): Williams posted 14 points (5-9 FG, 4-6 3Pt, 0-0 FT), six rebounds and five assists across 35 minutes in Sunday's 80-67 victory over Oregon St.
  • Tahj Eaddy (03/06): Eaddy posted 12 points (5-14 FG, 2-7 3Pt, 0-0 FT), three rebounds and one assist across 37 minutes in Saturday's 64-63 victory over UCLA.
  • Max Agbonkpolo (03/06): Agbonkpolo is in the starting lineup for Saturday's game against UCLA.
  • Tahj Eaddy (03/04): Eaddy posted 16 points (6-8 FG, 4-6 3Pt, 0-0 FT), one rebound and two assists in 21 minutes during Wednesday's 79-42 win over Stanford.
  • Chris Duarte (03/04): Duarte recorded 23 points (7-12 FG, 1-4 3Pt, 8-10 FT), four rebounds and one assist in 35 minutes during Wednesday's 82-74 victory over UCLA.
  • Amauri Hardy (03/03): Hardy has failed to score a point in six consecutive games, averaging 8.0 mpg over that span.
  • Will Richardson (03/02): Richardson recorded 12 points (4-10 FG, 3-7 3Pt, 1-2 FT), one rebound and five assists in 37 minutes during Monday's 80-69 victory over Arizona.
  • Tahj Eaddy (02/28): Eaddy recorded four points (2-10 FG, 0-3 3Pt, 0-1 FT), two rebounds and two assists across 34 minutes in Saturday's 71-61 loss to Utah.
  • LJ Figueroa (02/27): Figueroa posted 20 points (9-13 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 0-0 FT), 14 rebounds and one assist across 31 minutes in Saturday's 74-63 victory over California.