Preview: Oregon vs. Iowa

Game Oregon Ducks vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Date: March 22nd, 2021 12:10 PM
TV: CBS
Spread: IOWA -5 Open -4
Total: 150.5 Open 147

Preview

Oregon Offense vs. Iowa Defense

Oregon checks in at 11th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Ducks shoot 52.9 percent on twos and 37.7 percent on threes for a 54.3 effective field goal percentage.

Iowa is ranked 78th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Iowa opponents make 46.6 percent of their twos and 34.8 percent of their threes for a 48.8 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
  • Oregon is one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, averaging 2.27 years of experience weighted by minutes played, per KenPom.com.
  • According to KenPom, Oregon is one of the “luckier” teams in the field, ranked 76th nationally in luck, meaning that they’ve won more games than their adjusted efficiency margin stats would indicate.
  • The Ducks are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 77.59 inches according to KenPom.com. Iowa should match up well against the Ducks’ size, with an average height of 77.94 inches.
  • Iowa plays zone defense on 32.5 percent of their defensive plays, per Synergy, and allow 0.83 points per play when they go with the zone look. Oregon averages 0.91 points per play against zone defenses, making this a fairly neutral matchup.
  • Oregon does a great job attacking full-court pressure defenses, scoring 1 points per play. Iowa’s applies full court pressure on 8.3 percent of possessions which should allow the Ducks to create an offensive advantage.
Extra Possessions
  • Oregon does a great job of valuing the basketball, turnovers on just 16.8 percent of possessions, and Iowa’s defense doesn’t prioritize forcing giveaways. The Hawkeyes only force giveaways on 16.1 percent of opponent possessions, so expect a low turnover performance by Oregon’s offense.
  • Oregon does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Ducks score 17.4 points points per game off of turnovers. Iowa avoids turnovers for touchdowns, allowing only 9.7 points per game off of giveaways.
Shot Profile
  • Iowa allows opponents to attempt 40 percent of their shots from 3-point range. IOWA opponents are shooting 34 percent from 3-point range while Oregon is shooting 37 percent from outside and attempts 38 percent of its shots from long distance.
  • Oregon dominates the paint. The Ducks score 35.1 points and allow 28.3 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 6.8 points per game.
  • Oregon is a tough scout because its bigs can stretch the floor. The Ducks have one big with at least 75 3-point attempts including Eugene Omoruyi.
  • Oregon is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Ducks shoot 59 percent at the rim and Iowa allows 53 percent shooting inside of five feet.
Style
  • Iowa’s defense gives up assists on 60.2 percent of made baskets which is a sign that they help too aggressively.
  • Oregon’s offense is overweight on off-ball screens and cuts compared to the rest of the field and should test Iowa’s defensive discipline off the ball. The Ducks average 8.8 points per game via cuts and off-ball screens, scoring 1.04 points per play on those actions. Iowa’s defense is fairly average defending off the ball. Opponents score 0.93 points per play against the Hawkeyes.
  • Oregon trusts its players to create in one-on-one situations and scores 6.8 points per game out of iso actions and average 0.83 points per isolation play.

Iowa Offense vs. Oregon Defense

The Hawkeyes are ranked 2nd nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Iowa shoots 52.6 percent on twos and 38.6 percent on threes for a 54.7 effective field goal percentage.

Oregon’s defense is ranked 81st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 50.4 percent on twos and 34.3 percent on threes for a 50.8 effective field goal percentage against the Ducks.

Basics
  • Oregon’s defense needs to get back on track in the NCAA Tournament. Over the last 30 days, the Ducks are ranked 152nd in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to 81st overall.
  • The Hawkeyes have a notable size advantage on the inside, their power forwards and centers rank in the 95th percentile in height compared to Oregon’s bigs which rank in the 17th percentile.
  • Iowa plays as fast as any team in the country. The Hawkeyes average 71 possessions per game.
  • Oregon plays a notable amount of zone defense. The Ducks utilize zone defense on 21.7 percent of their defensive plays, per Synergy. That’s more than most Division I teams and they allow 0.85 points per play in zone defense. Iowa has done a great job of attacking zone defenses this year — 1.04 points per play — and that should help the Hawkeyes create an offensive advantage.
  • Iowa does a great job attacking full-court pressure defenses, scoring 0.96 points per play. Oregon’s applies full court pressure on 26.6 percent of possessions which should allow the Hawkeyes to create an offensive advantage.
Extra Possessions
  • Iowa does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Hawkeyes only turn it over on 13.3 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a Oregon defense that forces giveaways on 20.2 percent of possessions.
Shot Profile
  • Iowa’s offensive attack is perimeter-oriented. The Hawkeyes attempt 40 percent of their shots from 3-point range. The Hawkeyes also make a lot of those attempts, shooting 38 percent from outside the arc. Oregon’s defense is vulnerable against the three, allowing its opponents to attempt 39 percent of their shots from outside the arc.
  • Iowa is difficult to guard because it has 4 players on the roster shooting at least 38 percent from 3-point range on over 50 perimeter attempts.
  • Iowa is a tough scout because its bigs can stretch the floor. The Hawkeyes have one big with at least 75 3-point attempts including Luka Garza.
  • Iowa is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Hawkeyes shoot 59 percent at the rim and Oregon allows 57 percent shooting inside of five feet.
Style
  • Iowa is one of the better passing teams in the country and 63.9 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season.
  • Iowa has one of the most dominant post-up offenses in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 15.7 points per game on 1.07 points per post-up play. Oregon’s defense should be up to the challenge, allowing 0.83 points per post-up play.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik projects a 81-76 Iowa win over Oregon and gives the Hawkeyes a 68 percent chance at picking up the victory.

ORE Personnel

#2 Eugene Omoruyi

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 235 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Stretch Big Man Pick and Pop Roll Man Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Mega Usage
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
17.1 5.4 2.2 111.6 30.3% 53.1%

#5 Chris Duarte

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 190 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Minutes Logger Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
17.1 4.7 2.6 120.6 23.4% 63.3%

#30 LJ Figueroa

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 200 lbs

Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.3 6.1 1.4 117.8 19.5% 55.1%

#50 Eric Williams

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 200 lbs

Corner 3-Point Specialist Poor Finisher Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10 6 1.6 106.1 19.5% 46.6%

#0 Will Richardson

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 170 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Glue Guy Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
11.2 3.4 3.9 106.8 20.6% 53.2%

IOWA Personnel

#55 Luka Garza

Role: Post Up Big
Height: 6'11" | Weight: 265 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Pick and Pop Roll Man Catch and Shoot Offensive Rebounder Mega Usage Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
24.1 8.7 1.7 123.7 30.3% 59.6%

#10 Joe Wieskamp

Role: Runaround Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 212 lbs

Off Screen Shooter Transition Scorer Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
14.8 6.6 1.7 118.1 20.9% 60.2%

#3 Jordan Bohannon

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 175 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Just A Shooter Catch and Shoot Poor Finisher Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10.6 3.1 4.4 119.5 17.7% 54.5%

#15 Keegan Murray

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 215 lbs

Rim Protector Smart Shot Selection Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
7.2 5.1 0.5 119.3 18.2% 55.4%

#5 CJ Fredrick

Role: Runaround Wing
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 195 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Low Usage Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
7.5 1.1 1.9 128.4 12.2% 59.2%

ATS

Iowa ATS Performance

This Season

Iowa is 17-14-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 17 of 31 Iowa games (54.8%) this season.

Iowa is 1-4-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 3 of Iowa’s 5 games on neutral floors (60%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 North Carolina Central W, 97-67 -25.5 W 4.5 150.5 OVER 13.5
11/27/2020 Southern W, 103-76 -24.5 W 2.5 150.5 OVER 28.5
12/3/2020 Western Illinois W, 99-58 -36 W 5 155.5 OVER 1.5
12/8/2020 North Carolina W, 93-80 -3.5 W 9.5 157.5 OVER 15.5
12/11/2020 Iowa State W, 105-77 -14 W 14 158 OVER 24
12/13/2020 Northern Illinois W, 106-53 -31 W 22 151 OVER 8
12/19/2020 vs. Gonzaga L, 88-99 3.5 L -7.5 173.5 OVER 13.5
12/22/2020 Purdue W, 70-55 -7 W 8 155.5 UNDER -30.5
12/25/2020 at Minnesota L, 95-102 -7.5 L -14.5 163.5 OVER 33.5
12/29/2020 Northwestern W, 87-72 -10.5 W 4.5 157.5 OVER 1.5
1/2/2021 at Rutgers W, 77-75 -3.5 L -1.5 158.5 UNDER -6.5
1/7/2021 at Maryland W, 89-67 -5.5 W 16.5 155.5 OVER 0.5
1/10/2021 Minnesota W, 86-71 -9.5 W 5.5 164.5 UNDER -7.5
1/17/2021 at Northwestern W, 96-73 -9.5 W 13.5 157.5 OVER 11.5
1/21/2021 Indiana L, 69-81 -10.5 L -22.5 152 UNDER -2
1/29/2021 at Illinois L, 75-80 3 L -2 162 UNDER -7
2/2/2021 Michigan State W, 84-78 -9.5 L -3.5 155.5 OVER 6.5
2/4/2021 Ohio State L, 85-89 -5 L -9 158.5 OVER 15.5
2/7/2021 at Indiana L, 65-67 -3.5 L -5.5 151.5 UNDER -19.5
2/10/2021 Rutgers W, 79-66 -6.5 W 6.5 151.5 UNDER -6.5
2/13/2021 at Michigan State W, 88-58 -4.5 W 25.5 152.5 UNDER -6.5
2/18/2021 at Wisconsin W, 77-62 -1.5 W 13.5 145 UNDER -6
2/21/2021 Penn State W, 74-68 -10.5 L -4.5 156.5 UNDER -14.5
2/25/2021 at Michigan L, 57-79 5 L -17 155.5 UNDER -19.5
2/28/2021 at Ohio State W, 73-57 2.5 W 18.5 156.5 UNDER -26.5
3/4/2021 Nebraska W, 102-64 -16.5 W 21.5 152.5 OVER 13.5
3/7/2021 Wisconsin W, 77-73 -7.5 L -3.5 142.5 OVER 7.5
3/12/2021 vs. Wisconsin W, 62-57 -4.5 W 0.5 145.5 UNDER -26.5
3/13/2021 vs. Illinois L, 71-82 3.5 L -7.5 155.5 UNDER -2.5
3/20/2021 vs. Grand Canyon W, 86-74 -14.5 L -2.5 145 OVER 15
3/22/2021 vs. Oregon L, 80-95 -4 L -19 147 OVER 28

Head to Head

Iowa is 1-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Oregon in recorded games since 2018. The over has hit in 1 out of 2 recorded head-to-head games (50%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/15/2018 vs. Oregon W, 77-69 4 W 12 148.5 UNDER -2.5
3/22/2021 vs. Oregon L, 80-95 -4 L -19 147 OVER 28

Oregon ATS Performance

This Season

Oregon is 16-12-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 19 of 28 Oregon games (67.9%) this season.

Oregon is 3-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 6 of Oregon’s 6 games on neutral floors (100%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
12/2/2020 vs. Missouri L, 75-83 5 L -3 136 OVER 22
12/4/2020 vs. Seton Hall W, 83-70 -2.5 W 10.5 142 OVER 11
12/7/2020 Eastern Washington W, 69-52 -13.5 W 3.5 142.5 UNDER -21.5
12/9/2020 Florida A&M W, 87-66 -25.5 L -4.5 135.5 OVER 17.5
12/12/2020 at Washington W, 74-71 -8.5 L -5.5 134.5 OVER 10.5
12/17/2020 San Francisco W, 74-64 -7 W 3 146 UNDER -8
12/19/2020 Portland W, 80-41 -22.5 W 16.5 145 UNDER -24
12/31/2020 California W, 82-69 -14 L -1 134 OVER 17
1/2/2021 Stanford W, 73-56 -5.5 W 11.5 141 UNDER -12
1/7/2021 at Colorado L, 72-79 2.5 L -4.5 140.5 OVER 10.5
1/9/2021 at Utah W, 79-73 -1.5 W 4.5 138.5 OVER 13.5
1/23/2021 Oregon State L, 64-75 -9 L -20 137 OVER 2
2/4/2021 Washington State L, 71-74 -12 L -15 134 OVER 11
2/6/2021 Washington W, 86-74 -12.5 L -0.5 147 OVER 13
2/11/2021 at Arizona State W, 75-64 2 W 13 152.5 UNDER -13.5
2/13/2021 at Arizona W, 63-61 2 W 4 145.5 UNDER -21.5
2/18/2021 Colorado W, 60-56 -1.5 W 2.5 141 UNDER -25
2/20/2021 Utah W, 67-64 -9 L -6 137 UNDER -6
2/22/2021 at USC L, 58-72 3.5 L -10.5 140 UNDER -10
2/25/2021 at Stanford W, 71-68 1 W 4 136.5 OVER 2.5
2/27/2021 at California W, 74-63 -9.5 W 1.5 133 OVER 4
3/1/2021 Arizona W, 80-69 -5 W 6 141.5 OVER 7.5
3/3/2021 UCLA W, 82-74 -4 W 4 134 OVER 22
3/7/2021 at Oregon State W, 80-67 -5.5 W 7.5 136.5 OVER 10.5
3/11/2021 vs. Arizona State W, 91-73 -8.5 W 9.5 147.5 OVER 16.5
3/12/2021 vs. Oregon State L, 64-75 -8.5 L -19.5 137.5 OVER 1.5
3/22/2021 vs. Iowa W, 95-80 4 W 19 147 OVER 28
3/28/2021 vs. USC L, 68-82 2 L -12 138 OVER 12

Head to Head

Oregon is 1-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Iowa in recorded games since 2018. The over has hit in 1 out of 2 recorded head-to-head games (50%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/15/2018 vs. Iowa L, 69-77 -4 L -12 148.5 UNDER -2.5
3/22/2021 vs. Iowa W, 95-80 4 W 19 147 OVER 28
Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Austin Ash (03/26): Ash entered the transfer portal Thursday, VerbalCommits.com reports.
  • Connor McCaffery (03/23): McCaffery has torn labrums in both hips and will undergo surgery on both this offseason, Chad Leistikow of the Des Moines Register reports.
  • Jordan Bohannon (03/23): Bohannon was held scoreless (0-4 FG, 0-2 3Pt) with three assists and one rebound over 19 minutes in Monday's 95-80 loss to Oregon.
  • Connor McCaffery (03/23): McCaffery was held scoreless (0-1 FG) with one rebound and one assist over 12 minutes in Monday's 95-80 loss to Oregon.
  • CJ Fredrick (03/23): Fredrick was held scoreless (0-3 FG, 0-2 3Pt) with one steal over 13 minutes in Monday's 95-80 loss to Oregon.
  • Joe Wieskamp (03/23): Wieskamp totaled 17 points (7-17 FG, 3-8 3Pt), six rebounds, five assists and one block over 34 minutes in Monday's 95-80 loss to Oregon.
  • Luka Garza (03/23): Garza posted 36 points (14-20 FG, 3-4 3Pt, 5-7 FT), nine rebounds, one assist and one steal over 36 minutes in Monday's 95-80 loss to Oregon.
  • Will Richardson (03/22): Richardson recorded 19 points (7-10 FG, 3-4 3Pt, 2-2 FT), six rebounds and seven assists in 40 minutes during Monday's 95-80 win over Iowa.
  • Chris Duarte (03/22): Duarte posted 23 points (9-12 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 4-5 FT), three rebounds and seven assists across 32 minutes in Monday's 95-80 victory over Iowa.
  • Luka Garza (03/21): Garza totaled 24 points (9-16 FG, 4-5 3Pt, 2-4 FT), six rebounds, two steals, one assist and one block over 33 minutes in Saturday's 86-74 win over Grand Canyon.
  • Keegan Murray (03/21): Murray posted 13 points (6-11 FG, 1-5 3Pt), seven rebounds, four blocks, three assists and one steal over 25 minutes in Saturday's 86-74 win over Grand Canyon.
  • Chris Duarte (03/20): Duarte and Oregon won't play VCU in the NCAA Tournament on Saturday since the game was declared a no contest due COVID-19 issues within the VCU program, Jon reports. Oregon will advance to the next round as a result.
  • Eugene Omoruyi (03/20): Omoruyi and Oregon won't play VCU in the NCAA Tournament on Saturday since the game was declared a no contest due COVID-19 issues within the VCU program, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports. Oregon will advance to the next round as a result.
  • Jordan Bohannon (03/14): Bohannon logged 20 points (6-15 FG, 5-13 3Pt, 3-4 FT), six assists, two rebounds and one steal over 38 minutes in Saturday's 82-71 loss to Illinois.
  • Luka Garza (03/13): Garza recorded 24 points (10-15 FG, 0-2 3Pt, 4-5 FT), nine rebounds, four blocks, three assists and one steal over 38 minutes in Friday's 62-57 win over Wisconsin.
  • LJ Figueroa (03/12): Figueroa recorded 14 points (4-13 FG, 3-9 3Pt, 3-3 FT), three rebounds and zero assists in 36 minutes during Friday's 75-64 loss to Oregon St.
  • Joe Wieskamp (03/12): Wieskamp (ankle) will play in Friday's game against Wisconsin, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Eugene Omoruyi (03/12): Omoruyi tallied 15 points (6-12 FG, 3-4 3Pt, 0-1 FT), six rebounds and two assists in 30 minutes during Thursday's 91-73 victory over Arizona St.
  • Will Richardson (03/11): Richardson had 17 points (6-9 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 3-3 FT), nine assists, seven rebounds and two steals across 35 minutes in Thursday's 91-73 victory over Arizona State.
  • Joe Wieskamp (03/09): Coach Fran McCaffery said that Wieskamp (ankle) remains day-to-day, Chad Leistikow of Des Moines Register Sports reports.
  • Luka Garza (03/09): Garza was named the 2020-21 Big Ten Player of the Year on Tuesday.
  • CJ Fredrick (03/08): Fredrick had six points (2-5 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 1-2 FT), one steal and one block across 30 minutes in Sunday's 77-73 victory over Wisconsin.
  • Eric Williams (03/08): Williams posted 14 points (5-9 FG, 4-6 3Pt, 0-0 FT), six rebounds and five assists across 35 minutes in Sunday's 80-67 victory over Oregon St.
  • Patrick McCaffery (03/05): McCaffery generated 19 points (8-13 FG, 3-6 3Pt) and six rebounds over 20 minutes in Thursday's 102-64 win over Nebraska.
  • Jordan Bohannon (03/05): Bohannon tallied 26 points (8-13 FG, 8-12 3Pt, 2-2 FT), two rebounds, two assists and one steal over 25 minutes in Thursday's 102-64 win over Nebraska.