Preview: Oregon State vs. Loyola (IL)

Game Oregon State Beavers vs. Loyola (IL) Ramblers
Date: March 27th, 2021 2:40 PM
TV: CBS
Spread: L-IL -7
Total: 125 Open: 126.5

Preview

Oregon State Offense vs. Loyola (IL) Defense

Oregon State checks in at 37th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Beavers shoot 46.8 percent on twos and 35 percent on threes for a 48.8 effective field goal percentage.

Loyola (IL) is ranked 2nd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Loyola (IL) opponents make 46.3 percent of their twos and 32.5 percent of their threes for a 47.2 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
  • Oregon State’s offense has been playing well over the last month. The Beavers are ranked 9th in adjusted offensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 37th for the season.
  • Oregon State is one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, averaging 2.04 years of experience weighted by minutes played, per KenPom.com. Loyola (IL) isn’t short on experience itself, with an average weighted years of experience of 2.27 years.
  • According to KenPom, Oregon State is one of the “luckier” teams in the field, ranked 38th nationally in luck, meaning that they’ve won more games than their adjusted efficiency margin stats would indicate.
  • The Beavers are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 78.25 inches according to KenPom.com. Oregon State’s size should create a significant mismatch. Loyola (IL) is one of the smallest teams in Division I with an average height of 76.18 inches.
  • The Beavers have a size advantage on the perimeter as their guards rank in the 96th percentile size wise compared to Loyola (IL)’s guards which rank in the 20th percentile.
  • Oregon State plays at a deliberate pace. The Beavers average 66 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball. Loyola (IL) also prefers to play alow and Ramblers games only average 64 possessions per game. Expect this to be a grinding low-possession game.
  • You can trust Oregon State at the line in a close game. The Beavers shoot 77 percent at the line for the season.
Extra Possessions
  • Loyola (IL) is one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers. The Ramblers force giveaways on 21.4 percent of their opponents’ offensive possessions. Oregon State’s offense should be equipped to handle that pressure given that they grade out in the 73rd percentile nationally in turnover rate.
Shot Profile
  • Loyola (IL) does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, L-IL contests 58 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Oregon State’s offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 57 percent of the Beavers’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • Oregon State is a tough scout because its bigs can stretch the floor. The Beavers have one big with at least 75 3-point attempts including Maurice Calloo.
  • Loyola (IL) is one of the best teams in the country at defending around the basket. Ramblers opponents are shooting just 52 percent at the rim. Oregon State makes 55 percent of its shots withing five-feet which is right around Division I average.
  • Oregon State’s offense is heavy on mid-range jumpers. The Beavers attempt 28 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 36 percent clip.
  • Loyola (IL)’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Ramblers opponents attempt 30 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 38 percent clip. Oregon State’s offense shoots 36 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Oregon State is a terrific passing team that records assists on 59.3 percent of its made baskets. Loyola (IL)’s defense is designed to minimize help and prevent assisted baskets. On the season, Loyola (IL) opponents log assists on 46 percent of makes.
  • Oregon State’s offense is overweight on off-ball screens and cuts compared to the rest of the field and should test Loyola (IL)’s defensive discipline off the ball. The Beavers average 10.1 points per game via cuts and off-ball screens, scoring 0.96 points per play on those actions. Loyola (IL)’s defense excels at defending off-ball sets, allowing just 0.88 points per play.
  • Oregon State relies on post-up offense to score. The Beavers average 11.4 points per game out of post-up actions. Loyola (IL) is fairly average defending the post, allowing 0.82 points per play.

Loyola (IL) Offense vs. Oregon State Defense

Loyola (IL) checks in at 50th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Ramblers shoot 57.2 percent on twos and 35.4 percent on threes for a 55.7 effective field goal percentage.

Oregon State is ranked 67th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Oregon State opponents make 51 percent of their twos and 30.4 percent of their threes for a 48.9 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
  • Loyola (IL) is underseeded according to efficiency metrics. The 8th seeded Ramblers are ranked 12th nationally per Bart Torvik. Their computer numbers suggest they should be closer to a 3 or 4 seed.
  • Loyola (IL) plays at a deliberate pace. The Ramblers average 64 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball. Oregon State also prefers to play alow and Beavers games only average 66 possessions per game. Expect this to be a grinding low-possession game.
  • Oregon State plays zone defense on 25.6 percent of their defensive plays, per Synergy, and allow 0.86 points per play when they go with the zone look. Loyola (IL) averages 0.91 points per play against zone defenses, making this a fairly neutral matchup.
  • Oregon State can get into trouble given its tendency to commit fouls. The Beavers send their opponents to the free-throw line 38 times per 100 shot attempts. That’s one of the worst rates in the country and Loyola (IL) gets to the stripe 31 times per 100 field goal attempts.
  • You can trust Loyola (IL) at the line in a close game. The Ramblers shoot 73 percent at the line for the season.
Extra Possessions
  • The game should be fairly turnover neutral on this side of the ball. Loyola (IL) turns it over on 18.2 percent of possessions and Oregon State forces giveaways on 18.1 percent of possessions.
Shot Profile
  • Oregon State allows opponents to attempt 38 percent of their shots from 3-point range. The Beavers have gotten a bit lucky so far this season as opponents only make 30 percent of their threes. On the year, Loyola (IL) is shooting 36 from outside and attempts 38 percent of its shots from long distance.
  • Oregon State does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, ORST contests 55 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Loyola (IL)’s offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 57 percent of the Ramblers’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • Loyola (IL) dominates the paint. The Ramblers score 34.5 points and allow 23.9 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 10.6 points per game. Oregon State has struggled inside this year and has been outscored by 0.8 points per game in the paint.
  • Loyola (IL) is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Ramblers shoot 64 percent at the rim and Oregon State allows 57 percent shooting inside of five feet.
Style
  • Loyola (IL) is one of the better passing teams in the country and 60.8 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season.
  • Loyola (IL) is reliant on ball screen screen offense. The Ramblers score 25.2 points per game out of ball screen actions at 1.02 points per play. Oregon State’s defense is fairly average containing ball screen looks. Opponents score 0.87 points per ball screen action (including pass-outs) against the Beavers.

Bottom Line

Will we see an upset? Bart Torvik gives Oregon State a 31 percent chance of advancing and predicts a 63-59 final score.

ORST Personnel

#5 Ethan Thompson

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 195 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Ball Screen Creator Distributor Off Screen Shooter Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Go-To Guy Gets to the Line
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
15.8 3.9 3.8 105.3 26.6% 46.9%

#2 Jarod Lucas

Role: Runaround Wing
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 195 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Off Screen Shooter Mid-Range Specialist Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Poor Finisher Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.9 2.3 1.2 115.4 20.0% 50%

#10 Warith Alatishe

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 200 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Mid-Range Specialist Pick Pocket Rim Protector Isolation Scorer Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Defensive Rebounder Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.6 8.7 1.8 106.2 21.5% 51.3%

#11 Zach Reichle

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 205 lbs

Distributor Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
7.4 3.1 2.8 109.8 16.3% 50.9%

#1 Maurice Calloo

Role: Pick and Pop Big
Height: 6'10" | Weight: 220 lbs

Stretch Big Man Mid-Range Specialist Catch and Shoot Poor Finisher Takes Tough Shots Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
5.5 2.3 0.7 96.5 19.4% 45.7%
🔥🔥🔥: Calloo is averaging 9 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 3.5 points above his season average.

L-IL Personnel

#25 Cameron Krutwig

Role: Post Up Big
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 255 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Distributor Finisher Roll Man Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Defensive Rebounder Mega Usage Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
15 7 3 114.4 29.4% 57.4%

#1 Lucas Williamson

Role: Runaround Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 205 lbs

Pick Pocket
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.8 3.9 2.1 111.1 17.6% 54.2%
🔥🔥🔥: Williamson is averaging 13 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 4.2 points above his season average.

#4 Braden Norris

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'0" | Weight: 180 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Poor Finisher Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.5 2.9 3.2 112.0 15.8% 58.1%
🔥🔥🔥: Norris is averaging 12.8 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 4.3 points above his season average.

#5 Keith Clemons

Role: Runaround Wing
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 180 lbs

Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
7.5 1.5 1.5 113.6 16.1% 57.5%
🔥🔥🔥: Clemons is averaging 10.4 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 2.9 points above his season average.

#30 Aher Uguak

Role: Reluctant Shooter
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 225 lbs

Finisher Smart Shot Selection Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
7.3 3.9 1.2 120.5 14.9% 65.8%

ATS

Loyola (IL) ATS Performance

This Season

Loyola (IL) is 18-11-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 13 of 29 Loyola (IL) games (44.8%) this season.

Loyola (IL) is 5-2-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 4 of Loyola (IL)’s 7 games on neutral floors (57.1%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
12/9/2020 Chicago State W, 88-51 -34.5 W 2.5 138.5 OVER 0.5
12/13/2020 at UIC W, 77-66 -9 W 2 131 OVER 12
12/15/2020 at Wisconsin L, 63-77 9.5 L -4.5 132.5 OVER 7.5
12/18/2020 vs. Richmond L, 73-75 -2.5 L -4.5 142.5 OVER 5.5
12/27/2020 Illinois State W, 90-60 -15.5 W 14.5 138.5 OVER 11.5
12/28/2020 Illinois State W, 86-55 -15.5 W 15.5 138.5 OVER 2.5
1/2/2021 North Texas W, 57-49 -7.5 W 0.5 133 UNDER -27
1/10/2021 at Indiana State L, 71-76 -7.5 L -12.5 137.5 OVER 9.5
1/11/2021 at Indiana State W, 58-48 -7.5 W 2.5 137.5 UNDER -31.5
1/16/2021 Northern Iowa W, 72-57 -10.5 W 4.5 139 UNDER -10
1/17/2021 Northern Iowa W, 88-46 -10.5 W 31.5 139.5 UNDER -5.5
1/20/2021 at Valparaiso W, 75-39 -12.5 W 23.5 132 UNDER -18
1/24/2021 at Bradley W, 69-56 -7.5 W 5.5 130 UNDER -5
1/25/2021 at Bradley W, 65-58 -7.5 L -0.5 128.5 UNDER -5.5
1/31/2021 at Missouri State W, 72-46 -6.5 W 19.5 136.5 UNDER -18.5
2/1/2021 at Missouri State W, 70-50 -5.5 W 14.5 137.5 UNDER -17.5
2/6/2021 Evansville W, 68-55 -19.5 L -6.5 120.5 OVER 2.5
2/7/2021 Evansville W, 69-58 -19.5 L -8.5 121.5 OVER 5.5
2/13/2021 at Drake W, 81-54 -3.5 W 23.5 132.5 OVER 2.5
2/14/2021 at Drake L, 50-51 -4.5 L -5.5 133 UNDER -32
2/17/2021 Valparaiso W, 54-52 -20.5 L -18.5 127 UNDER -21
2/26/2021 Southern Illinois W, 60-52 -19 L -11 125 UNDER -13
2/27/2021 Southern Illinois W, 65-58 -19 L -12 124.5 UNDER -1.5
3/5/2021 vs. Southern Illinois W, 73-49 -16.5 W 7.5 121.5 OVER 0.5
3/6/2021 vs. Indiana State W, 65-49 -11.5 W 4.5 121.5 UNDER -7.5
3/7/2021 vs. Drake W, 75-65 -8.5 W 1.5 125 OVER 15
3/19/2021 vs. Georgia Tech W, 71-60 -3.5 W 7.5 126 OVER 5
3/21/2021 vs. Illinois W, 71-58 7.5 W 20.5 133.5 UNDER -4.5
3/27/2021 vs. Oregon State L, 58-65 -7 L -14 125 UNDER -2

Head to Head

Loyola (IL) is 0-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Oregon State in recorded games since 2021. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/27/2021 vs. Oregon State L, 58-65 -7 L -14 125 UNDER -2

Oregon State ATS Performance

This Season

Oregon State is 21-10-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 18 of 31 Oregon State games (58.1%) this season.

Oregon State is 6-0-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 4 of Oregon State’s 6 games on neutral floors (66.7%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 California W, 71-63 -2 W 6 136.5 UNDER -2.5
12/2/2020 at Washington State L, 55-59 -1 L -5 138.5 UNDER -24.5
12/6/2020 Wyoming L, 73-76 -9.5 L -12.5 137.5 OVER 11.5
12/10/2020 Portland L, 86-87 -15 L -16 140.5 OVER 32.5
12/16/2020 UTSA W, 73-61 -9.5 W 2.5 150.5 UNDER -16.5
12/22/2020 Portland State W, 67-62 -13.5 L -8.5 148.5 UNDER -19.5
1/2/2021 California W, 73-64 -3 W 6 131.5 OVER 5.5
1/4/2021 Stanford L, 71-81 7 L -3 136 OVER 16
1/14/2021 Arizona L, 64-98 7.5 L -26.5 140.5 OVER 21.5
1/16/2021 Arizona State W, 80-79 6 W 7 147.5 OVER 11.5
1/19/2021 USC W, 58-56 10.5 W 12.5 138.5 UNDER -24.5
1/23/2021 at Oregon W, 75-64 9 W 20 137 OVER 2
1/28/2021 at USC L, 62-75 12 L -1 135.5 OVER 1.5
1/30/2021 at UCLA L, 52-57 11.5 W 6.5 135 UNDER -26
2/4/2021 Washington W, 91-71 -6 W 14 140 OVER 22
2/6/2021 Washington State W, 68-66 -2.5 L -0.5 132.5 OVER 1.5
2/8/2021 at Colorado L, 49-78 12.5 L -16.5 138.5 UNDER -11.5
2/11/2021 at Arizona L, 61-70 11.5 W 2.5 140.5 UNDER -9.5
2/14/2021 at Arizona State L, 73-75 5.5 W 3.5 144.5 OVER 3.5
2/18/2021 Utah W, 74-56 3 W 21 136.5 UNDER -6.5
2/20/2021 Colorado L, 57-61 6.5 W 2.5 137 UNDER -19
2/25/2021 at California W, 59-57 -1 W 1 131 UNDER -15
2/27/2021 at Stanford W, 73-62 7 W 18 133.5 OVER 1.5
3/3/2021 at Utah W, 75-70 3.5 W 8.5 133.5 OVER 11.5
3/7/2021 Oregon L, 67-80 5.5 L -7.5 136.5 OVER 10.5
3/11/2021 vs. UCLA W, 83-79 5 W 9 133.5 OVER 28.5
3/12/2021 vs. Oregon W, 75-64 8.5 W 19.5 137.5 OVER 1.5
3/13/2021 vs. Colorado W, 70-68 8.5 W 10.5 132 OVER 6
3/19/2021 vs. Tennessee W, 70-56 7.5 W 21.5 130.5 UNDER -4.5
3/21/2021 vs. Oklahoma State W, 80-70 6 W 16 141 OVER 9
3/27/2021 vs. Loyola (Chi) W, 65-58 7 W 14 125 UNDER -2

Head to Head

Oregon State is 1-0-0 against the spread when it plays against Loyola (IL) in recorded games since 2021. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/27/2021 vs. Loyola (Chi) W, 65-58 7 W 14 125 UNDER -2
Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Cameron Krutwig (03/28): Krutwig had 14 points (6-12 FG, 2-2 FT), 10 rebounds, four assists and a block in 35 minutes during Saturday's 65-58 loss to Oregon State.
  • Rodrigue Andela (03/28): Andela had four points (2-4 FG), five rebounds and two blocks in 13 minutes of action during Saturday's 65-58 win over Loyola-Chicago.
  • Warith Alatishe (03/27): Alatishe recorded 10 points (4-8 FG, 0-0 3Pt, 2-2 FT), 11 rebounds and two assists in 26 minutes during Saturday's 65-58 win over Loyola Chicago.
  • Ethan Thompson (03/27): Thompson posted 22 points (6-13 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 8-8 FT), four rebounds and four assists across 40 minutes in Saturday's 65-58 victory over Loyola Chicago.
  • Gianni Hunt (03/24): Hunt took a hard fall in the Round of 32 versus Oklahoma State but says he will be ready to go for Saturday's Sweet 16 date with Loyola-Chicago, Jesse Sowa of the Corvallis Gazette-Times reports.
  • Rodrigue Andela (03/23): Updating a previous report, Andela did not take the court Sunday due to a coach's decision, Nick Daschel of the Oregonian reports.
  • Rodrigue Andela (03/22): Andela did not take the court in Sunday's 80-70 victory over Oklahoma State.
  • Maurice Calloo (03/22): Calloo recorded 15 points (4-9 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 4-4 FT), five rebounds and zero assists in 27 minutes during Sunday's 80-70 win over Oklahoma St.
  • Ethan Thompson (03/22): Thompson posted 26 points (5-11 FG, 1-4 3Pt, 15-16 FT), seven rebounds and zero assists across 29 minutes in Sunday's 80-70 victory over Oklahoma St.
  • Cameron Krutwig (03/21): Krutwig had a team-high 19 points (9-18 FG, 1-2 FT) to go along with 12 rebounds, five assists and three steals as Loyola-Chicago knocked off No. 1-seeded Illinois 71-58 on Sunday.
  • Warith Alatishe (03/20): Alatishe recorded four points (2-10 FG, 0-0 3Pt, 0-0 FT), nine rebounds and three assists in 25 minutes during Friday's 70-56 win over Tennessee.
  • Roman Silva (03/20): Silva posted 16 points (8-8 FG, 0-0 3Pt, 0-0 FT), four rebounds and zero assists across 25 minutes in Friday's 70-56 victory over Tennessee.
  • Jarod Lucas (03/14): Lucas tallied 14 points (3-8 FG, 2-7 3Pt, 6-7 FT), two rebounds and three assists across 33 minutes in Saturday's 70-68 win over Colorado.
  • Maurice Calloo (03/14): Calloo posted 15 points (6-11 FG, 3-6 3Pt, 0-0 FT), three rebounds and one assist across 21 minutes in Saturday's 70-68 victory over Colorado.
  • Zach Reichle (03/12): Reichle posted 12 points (2-3 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 7-8 FT), one rebound and one assist across 33 minutes in Friday's 75-64 victory over Oregon.
  • Rodrigue Andela (03/12): Andela tallied eight points (0-0 FG, 8-12 FT), 10 rebounds and zero assists across 18 minutes in Thursday's 83-79 overtime win over UCLA.
  • Ethan Thompson (03/08): Thompson recorded 16 points (7-15 FG, 1-5 3Pt, 1-2 FT), two rebounds and two assists in 32 minutes during Sunday's 80-67 loss to Oregon.
  • Warith Alatishe (03/04): Alatishe recorded 10 points (5-7 FG, 0-0 3Pt, 0-2 FT), 10 rebounds and four assists across 30 minutes in Wednesday's 75-70 victory over Utah.
  • Jarod Lucas (02/28): Lucas tallied 26 points (7-11 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 10-11 FT), three rebounds and one assist across 34 minutes in Saturday's 73-62 win over Stanford.
  • Cameron Krutwig (02/27): Krutwig (cramps) will play in Saturday's game against Southern Illinois, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Roman Silva (02/26): Silva tallied 15 points (6-8 FG, 0-0 3Pt, 3-4 FT), three rebounds and one assist across 23 minutes in Thursday's 59-57 win over California.
  • Jarod Lucas (02/21): Lucas recorded five points (1-9 FG, 1-6 3Pt, 2-2 FT), three rebounds and zero assists in 29 minutes during Saturday's 61-57 loss to Colorado.
  • Ethan Thompson (02/19): Thompson tallied 25 points (8-15 FG, 1-5 3Pt, 8-8 FT), five rebounds and eight assists in 37 minutes during Thursday's 74-56 victory over Utah.
  • Ethan Thompson (02/15): Thompson posted 18 points (5-10 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 7-11 FT), four rebounds and four assists across 33 minutes in Sunday's 75-73 loss to Arizona St.
  • Cameron Krutwig (02/15): Krutwig had 11 points (4-13 FG, 3-7 FT), 14 rebounds, three assists and three blocks across 37 minutes in Sunday's 51-50 loss to Drake.