Preview: Oregon State vs. Houston

Game Oregon State Beavers vs. Houston Cougars
Date: March 29th, 2021 7:15 PM
TV: CBS
Spread: HOU -7.5 Open -8
Total: 129 Open: 130.5

Preview

Oregon State Offense vs. Houston Defense

Oregon State checks in at 37th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Beavers shoot 46.8 percent on twos and 35 percent on threes for a 48.8 effective field goal percentage.

Houston is ranked 10th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Houston opponents make 42.6 percent of their twos and 29 percent of their threes for a 42.9 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
  • Oregon State’s offense has been playing well over the last month. The Beavers are ranked 9th in adjusted offensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 37th for the season.
  • Houston’s defense has been struggling over the last month. The Cougars are ranked 33rd in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 10th for the season.
  • Oregon State is one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, averaging 2.04 years of experience weighted by minutes played, per KenPom.com.
  • According to KenPom, Oregon State is one of the “luckier” teams in the field, ranked 38th nationally in luck, meaning that they’ve won more games than their adjusted efficiency margin stats would indicate.
  • The Beavers are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 78.25 inches according to KenPom.com.
  • The Beavers have a notable size advantage on the inside, their power forwards and centers rank in the 88th percentile in height compared to Houston’s bigs which rank in the 25th percentile.
  • Oregon State plays at a deliberate pace. The Beavers average 66 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball. Houston also prefers to play alow and Cougars games only average 65 possessions per game. Expect this to be a grinding low-possession game.
  • Houston can get into trouble given its tendency to commit fouls. The Cougars send their opponents to the free-throw line 42 times per 100 shot attempts. That’s one of the worst rates in the country and Oregon State gets to the stripe 35 times per 100 field goal attempts.
  • You can trust Oregon State at the line in a close game. The Beavers shoot 77 percent at the line for the season.
Extra Possessions
  • Houston is one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers. The Cougars force giveaways on 21.6 percent of their opponents’ offensive possessions. Oregon State’s offense should be equipped to handle that pressure given that they grade out in the 73rd percentile nationally in turnover rate.
Shot Profile
  • Oregon State is a tough scout because its bigs can stretch the floor. The Beavers have one big with at least 75 3-point attempts including Maurice Calloo.
  • Houston is one of the best teams in the country at defending around the basket. Cougars opponents are shooting just 51 percent at the rim. Oregon State makes 55 percent of its shots withing five-feet which is right around Division I average.
  • Oregon State’s offense is heavy on mid-range jumpers. The Beavers attempt 28 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 36 percent clip.
  • Houston’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Cougars opponents attempt 25 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 29 percent clip. Oregon State’s offense shoots 36 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Oregon State is one of the better passing teams in the country and 59.3 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season.
  • Oregon State’s offense is overweight on off-ball screens and cuts compared to the rest of the field and should test Houston’s defensive discipline off the ball. The Beavers average 10.1 points per game via cuts and off-ball screens, scoring 0.96 points per play on those actions. Houston’s defense excels at defending off-ball sets, allowing just 0.79 points per play.
  • Oregon State relies on post-up offense to score. The Beavers average 11.4 points per game out of post-up actions. Houston’s defense does a terrific job of guarding post-up scorers. On the year, the Cougars allow just 0.66 points per post-up play.

Houston Offense vs. Oregon State Defense

Houston checks in at 6th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Cougars shoot 49.9 percent on twos and 34.9 percent on threes for a 50.9 effective field goal percentage.

Oregon State is ranked 67th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Oregon State opponents make 51 percent of their twos and 30.4 percent of their threes for a 48.9 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
  • Houston plays at a deliberate pace. The Cougars average 65 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball. Oregon State also prefers to play alow and Beavers games only average 66 possessions per game. Expect this to be a grinding low-possession game.
  • Oregon State plays zone defense on 25.6 percent of their defensive plays, per Synergy, and allow 0.86 points per play when they go with the zone look. Houston averages 0.95 points per play against zone defenses, making this a fairly neutral matchup.
  • Oregon State can get into trouble given its tendency to commit fouls. The Beavers send their opponents to the free-throw line 38 times per 100 shot attempts. That’s one of the worst rates in the country and Houston gets to the stripe 31 times per 100 field goal attempts.
  • You can trust Houston at the line in a close game. The Cougars shoot 74 percent at the line for the season.
Extra Possessions
  • Houston does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Cougars score 17.3 points points per game off of turnovers.
  • The Cougars are fantastic on the offensive glass and rebound 40.2 percent of their missed shots. Oregon State is just okay on the defensive glass, grabbing 70.6 percent of opponent misses, which means the rebounding battle could swing this game in either direction.
  • Second chance points are crucial to Houston’s offense. The Cougars score 14.4 points off of second chances and only allow 8.4 points per game, outscoring teams by 6.0 points per game just on second chance opportunities.
Shot Profile
  • Houston’s offensive attack is perimeter-oriented. The Cougars attempt 42 percent of their shots from 3-point range. The Cougars also make a lot of those attempts, shooting 35 percent from outside the arc. Oregon State’s defense is vulnerable against the three, allowing its opponents to attempt 38 percent of their shots from outside the arc.
  • Oregon State does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, ORST contests 55 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Houston’s offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 57 percent of the Cougars’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • Houston is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Cougars shoot 62 percent at the rim and Oregon State allows 57 percent shooting inside of five feet.
  • Houston’s offense is heavy on mid-range jumpers. The Cougars attempt 27 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 37 percent clip.
Style
  • Houston trusts its players to create in one-on-one situations and scores 8.2 points per game out of iso actions and average 0.83 points per isolation play.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik projects a 70-61 Houston win over Oregon State and gives the Cougars a 84 percent chance at picking up the victory.

ORST Personnel

#5 Ethan Thompson

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 195 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Ball Screen Creator Distributor Off Screen Shooter Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Go-To Guy Gets to the Line
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
15.8 3.9 3.8 105.3 26.6% 46.9%

#2 Jarod Lucas

Role: Runaround Wing
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 195 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Off Screen Shooter Mid-Range Specialist Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Poor Finisher Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.9 2.3 1.2 115.4 20.0% 50%

#10 Warith Alatishe

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 200 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Mid-Range Specialist Pick Pocket Rim Protector Isolation Scorer Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Defensive Rebounder Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.6 8.7 1.8 106.2 21.5% 51.3%

#11 Zach Reichle

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 205 lbs

Distributor Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
7.4 3.1 2.8 109.8 16.3% 50.9%

#1 Maurice Calloo

Role: Pick and Pop Big
Height: 6'10" | Weight: 220 lbs

Stretch Big Man Mid-Range Specialist Catch and Shoot Poor Finisher Takes Tough Shots Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
5.5 2.3 0.7 96.5 19.4% 45.7%
🔥🔥🔥: Calloo is averaging 9 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 3.5 points above his season average.

HOU Personnel

#24 Quentin Grimes

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 205 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Transition Scorer Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Go-To Guy Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
18 6 1.8 117.9 25.8% 52.7%

#0 Marcus Sasser

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 190 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Off the Dribble Shooter Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
13.2 2.5 2.2 114.1 20.5% 48.9%

#3 DeJon Jarreau

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 185 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
11.2 5.6 4.4 111.6 23.5% 50.4%

#4 Justin Gorham

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 225 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Stretch Big Man Offensive Rebounder Smart Shot Selection Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.6 8.8 1.2 131.6 15.8% 55.3%

#12 Tramon Mark

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 180 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8 3.1 1.8 105.0 23.0% 42.5%

ATS

Houston ATS Performance

This Season

Houston is 20-9-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 14 of 29 Houston games (48.3%) this season.

Houston is 5-2-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 3 of Houston’s 7 games on neutral floors (42.9%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 Lamar W, 89-45 -21.5 W 22.5 138.5 UNDER -4.5
11/27/2020 Boise State W, 68-58 -11.5 L -1.5 144.5 UNDER -18.5
11/29/2020 vs. Texas Tech W, 64-53 2.5 W 13.5 129.5 UNDER -12.5
12/5/2020 South Carolina W, 77-67 -9.5 W 0.5 140.5 OVER 3.5
12/20/2020 Alcorn State W, 88-55 -34.5 L -1.5 142 OVER 1
12/22/2020 Temple W, 76-50 -16.5 W 9.5 134.5 UNDER -8.5
12/26/2020 at UCF W, 63-54 -7.5 W 1.5 134.5 UNDER -17.5
12/29/2020 at Tulsa L, 64-65 -7.5 L -8.5 128.5 OVER 0.5
1/3/2021 at SMU W, 74-60 -1.5 W 12.5 134 UNDER 0
1/6/2021 Wichita State W, 70-63 -11.5 L -4.5 136 UNDER -3
1/9/2021 Tulane W, 71-50 -19 W 2 128.5 UNDER -7.5
1/17/2021 UCF W, 75-58 -13.5 W 3.5 129.5 OVER 3.5
1/20/2021 Tulsa W, 86-59 -12 W 15 124.5 OVER 20.5
1/23/2021 at Temple W, 68-51 -11.5 W 5.5 131 UNDER -12
1/28/2021 at Tulane W, 83-60 -17.5 W 5.5 127.5 OVER 15.5
1/31/2021 SMU W, 70-48 -10.5 W 11.5 139.5 UNDER -21.5
2/3/2021 at East Carolina L, 73-82 -16.5 L -25.5 132.5 OVER 22.5
2/10/2021 at South Florida W, 82-65 -11.5 W 5.5 128.5 OVER 18.5
2/18/2021 at Wichita State L, 63-68 -8 L -13 137.5 UNDER -6.5
2/21/2021 Cincinnati W, 90-52 -12.5 W 25.5 135.5 OVER 6.5
2/25/2021 Western Kentucky W, 81-57 -11.5 W 12.5 136 OVER 2
2/28/2021 South Florida W, 98-52 -18.5 W 27.5 132 OVER 18
3/7/2021 Memphis W, 67-64 -10 L -7 134.5 UNDER -3.5
3/12/2021 vs. Tulane W, 77-52 -17.5 W 7.5 132 UNDER -3
3/13/2021 vs. Memphis W, 76-74 -7.5 L -5.5 132.5 OVER 17.5
3/14/2021 vs. Cincinnati W, 91-54 -13.5 W 23.5 136.5 OVER 8.5
3/19/2021 vs. Cleveland State W, 87-56 -20 W 11 135 OVER 8
3/21/2021 vs. Rutgers W, 63-60 -8 L -5 131.5 UNDER -8.5
3/27/2021 vs. Syracuse W, 62-46 -6.5 W 9.5 140 UNDER -32

Head to Head

We don’t have any head-to-head games on file between these two teams.

Oregon State ATS Performance

This Season

Oregon State is 21-10-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 18 of 31 Oregon State games (58.1%) this season.

Oregon State is 6-0-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 4 of Oregon State’s 6 games on neutral floors (66.7%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 California W, 71-63 -2 W 6 136.5 UNDER -2.5
12/2/2020 at Washington State L, 55-59 -1 L -5 138.5 UNDER -24.5
12/6/2020 Wyoming L, 73-76 -9.5 L -12.5 137.5 OVER 11.5
12/10/2020 Portland L, 86-87 -15 L -16 140.5 OVER 32.5
12/16/2020 UTSA W, 73-61 -9.5 W 2.5 150.5 UNDER -16.5
12/22/2020 Portland State W, 67-62 -13.5 L -8.5 148.5 UNDER -19.5
1/2/2021 California W, 73-64 -3 W 6 131.5 OVER 5.5
1/4/2021 Stanford L, 71-81 7 L -3 136 OVER 16
1/14/2021 Arizona L, 64-98 7.5 L -26.5 140.5 OVER 21.5
1/16/2021 Arizona State W, 80-79 6 W 7 147.5 OVER 11.5
1/19/2021 USC W, 58-56 10.5 W 12.5 138.5 UNDER -24.5
1/23/2021 at Oregon W, 75-64 9 W 20 137 OVER 2
1/28/2021 at USC L, 62-75 12 L -1 135.5 OVER 1.5
1/30/2021 at UCLA L, 52-57 11.5 W 6.5 135 UNDER -26
2/4/2021 Washington W, 91-71 -6 W 14 140 OVER 22
2/6/2021 Washington State W, 68-66 -2.5 L -0.5 132.5 OVER 1.5
2/8/2021 at Colorado L, 49-78 12.5 L -16.5 138.5 UNDER -11.5
2/11/2021 at Arizona L, 61-70 11.5 W 2.5 140.5 UNDER -9.5
2/14/2021 at Arizona State L, 73-75 5.5 W 3.5 144.5 OVER 3.5
2/18/2021 Utah W, 74-56 3 W 21 136.5 UNDER -6.5
2/20/2021 Colorado L, 57-61 6.5 W 2.5 137 UNDER -19
2/25/2021 at California W, 59-57 -1 W 1 131 UNDER -15
2/27/2021 at Stanford W, 73-62 7 W 18 133.5 OVER 1.5
3/3/2021 at Utah W, 75-70 3.5 W 8.5 133.5 OVER 11.5
3/7/2021 Oregon L, 67-80 5.5 L -7.5 136.5 OVER 10.5
3/11/2021 vs. UCLA W, 83-79 5 W 9 133.5 OVER 28.5
3/12/2021 vs. Oregon W, 75-64 8.5 W 19.5 137.5 OVER 1.5
3/13/2021 vs. Colorado W, 70-68 8.5 W 10.5 132 OVER 6
3/19/2021 vs. Tennessee W, 70-56 7.5 W 21.5 130.5 UNDER -4.5
3/21/2021 vs. Oklahoma State W, 80-70 6 W 16 141 OVER 9
3/27/2021 vs. Loyola (Chi) W, 65-58 7 W 14 125 UNDER -2

Head to Head

We don’t have any head-to-head games on file between these two teams.

Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Justin Gorham (03/28): Gorham had 13 points (4-6 FG, 5-6 FT), 10 rebounds and two assists in 28 minutes during Saturday's 62-46 win over Syracuse.
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/28): Jarreau had nine points (3-8 FG, 0-3 3Pt, 3-6 FT), eight rebounds, eight assists, a steal and a block in 34 minutes during Saturday's 62-46 win over Syracuse in the Sweet 16.
  • Rodrigue Andela (03/28): Andela had four points (2-4 FG), five rebounds and two blocks in 13 minutes of action during Saturday's 65-58 win over Loyola-Chicago.
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/27): Jarreau (hip) is starting Saturday's NCAA Tournament game against Syracuse, Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle reports.
  • Warith Alatishe (03/27): Alatishe recorded 10 points (4-8 FG, 0-0 3Pt, 2-2 FT), 11 rebounds and two assists in 26 minutes during Saturday's 65-58 win over Loyola Chicago.
  • Ethan Thompson (03/27): Thompson posted 22 points (6-13 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 8-8 FT), four rebounds and four assists across 40 minutes in Saturday's 65-58 victory over Loyola Chicago.
  • Gianni Hunt (03/24): Hunt took a hard fall in the Round of 32 versus Oklahoma State but says he will be ready to go for Saturday's Sweet 16 date with Loyola-Chicago, Jesse Sowa of the Corvallis Gazette-Times reports.
  • Rodrigue Andela (03/23): Updating a previous report, Andela did not take the court Sunday due to a coach's decision, Nick Daschel of the Oregonian reports.
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/22): Jarreau finished the game with 17 points (6-12 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 3-4 FT, five rebounds and two assists across 32 minutes in Sunday's 63-60 victory over Rutgers.
  • Rodrigue Andela (03/22): Andela did not take the court in Sunday's 80-70 victory over Oklahoma State.
  • Maurice Calloo (03/22): Calloo recorded 15 points (4-9 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 4-4 FT), five rebounds and zero assists in 27 minutes during Sunday's 80-70 win over Oklahoma St.
  • Ethan Thompson (03/22): Thompson posted 26 points (5-11 FG, 1-4 3Pt, 15-16 FT), seven rebounds and zero assists across 29 minutes in Sunday's 80-70 victory over Oklahoma St.
  • Quentin Grimes (03/21): Grimes had a game-high 22 points (7-15 FG, 5-9 3Pt, 3-6 FT), nine rebounds and two steals across 40 minutes in Sunday's 63-60 victory over Rutgers.
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/21): Jarreau (hip) returned to action Sunday against Rutgers following a hip problem.
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/20): Jarreau (hip) will practice Saturday, though it's unclear to what extent he'll participate, Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle reports.
  • Warith Alatishe (03/20): Alatishe recorded four points (2-10 FG, 0-0 3Pt, 0-0 FT), nine rebounds and three assists in 25 minutes during Friday's 70-56 win over Tennessee.
  • Roman Silva (03/20): Silva posted 16 points (8-8 FG, 0-0 3Pt, 0-0 FT), four rebounds and zero assists across 25 minutes in Friday's 70-56 victory over Tennessee.
  • J'wan Roberts (03/19): Roberts (thumb) was held scoreless with one rebound over two minutes in Friday's 87-56 win over Cleveland State.
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/19): Jarreau (hip) is unlikely to play in Sunday's game, Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle reports.
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/19): Jarreau suffered a hip injury during the first half of Friday's game against Cleveland State and is questionable to return, Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle reports.
  • J'wan Roberts (03/19): Roberts (thumb) is a game-time decision for Friday's NCAA Tournament matchup with Cleveland State, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • J'wan Roberts (03/17): Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson said Roberts (thumb) returned to practice Tuesday, leaving the door open for the freshman forward to play Friday in the Cougars' matchup with Cleveland State in the opening round of the NCAA tournament, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Jarod Lucas (03/14): Lucas tallied 14 points (3-8 FG, 2-7 3Pt, 6-7 FT), two rebounds and three assists across 33 minutes in Saturday's 70-68 win over Colorado.
  • Maurice Calloo (03/14): Calloo posted 15 points (6-11 FG, 3-6 3Pt, 0-0 FT), three rebounds and one assist across 21 minutes in Saturday's 70-68 victory over Colorado.
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/13): Jarreau had 15 points (5-10 FG, 0-3 3Pt, 5-5 FT), 10 rebounds and 10 assists across 34 minutes in Friday's 77-52 victory over Tulane.