Preview: Oral Roberts vs. Arkansas

Game Oral Roberts Golden Eagles vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Date: March 27th, 2021 7:30 PM
TV: TBS
Spread: ARK -11.5 Open -11
Total: 157 Open: 159.5

Preview

Oral Roberts Offense vs. Arkansas Defense

The Golden Eagles are ranked 79th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Oral Roberts shoots 49.9 percent on twos and 37.7 percent on threes for a 53 effective field goal percentage.

Arkansas defense is ranked 12th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 46.3 percent on twos and 33.2 percent on threes for a 47.6 effective field goal percentage against the Razorbacks.

Basics
  • Oral Roberts plays as fast as any team in the country. The Golden Eagles average 73 possessions per game. Arkansas also loves to play fast and averages 75 possessions per game
  • Oral Roberts makes 82 percent of its free throws which should come in handy in a close game.
Extra Possessions
  • Oral Roberts does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Golden Eagles only turn it over on 15.5 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a Arkansas defense that forces giveaways on 20.3 percent of possessions.
Shot Profile
  • Oral Roberts’s offensive attack is perimeter-oriented. The Golden Eagles attempt 47 percent of their shots from 3-point range. The Golden Eagles also make a lot of those attempts, shooting 38 percent from outside the arc. Arkansas defense is vulnerable against the three, allowing its opponents to attempt 38 percent of their shots from outside the arc.
  • Oral Roberts is difficult to guard because it has 3 players on the roster shooting at least 38 percent from 3-point range on over 50 perimeter attempts.
  • Oral Roberts is a tough scout because its bigs can stretch the floor. The Golden Eagles have 3 bigs with at least 75 3-point attempts including Kevin Obanor.
  • Arkansas controls the area around the hoop, allowing 52 percent shooting inside of five-feet. Oral Roberts makes 56 percent of its interior shots which is about average in college basketball. .
Style
  • Arkansas defense excels at preventing assisted field goals and forcing one-on-one play with a style of “no help” defense popularized by Luke Yaklich. The Razorbacks only allow their opponents to record assists on 48 percent of made baskets.
  • Modern basketball is a ball screen game and Oral Roberts offense is no exception. The Golden Eagles score 31.4 points per game out of ball screens and average 1.01 points per ball screen play. Arkansas defense excels at defending ball screens, allowing just 0.79 points per play which should set up a key strength-on-strength matchup.
  • Oral Roberts runs a lot of isolation actions. The Golden Eagles score 7.5 points per game out of isolation at 0.85 points per play. Arkansas defense is fairly average defending isolations. Opponents score 0.82 points per isolation action (including pass-outs) against the Razorbacks.

Arkansas Offense vs. Oral Roberts Defense

The Razorbacks are ranked 51st nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Arkansas shoots 51.2 percent on twos and 33.3 percent on threes for a 50.7 effective field goal percentage.

Oral Roberts defense is ranked 221st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 49.4 percent on twos and 34.4 percent on threes for a 50.1 effective field goal percentage against the Golden Eagles.

Basics
  • Arkansas offense enters the tournament on a cold streak. Over the last 30 days, the Razorbacks are ranked 121st in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to 51st for the year.
  • Oral Roberts defense has been shutting teams down over the last month and is ranked 83rd in adjusted defensive efficiency over that span compared to 221st for the season.
  • Arkansas is overseeded according to efficiency metrics. The 3rd seeded Razorbacks are ranked 23rd nationally, per Bart Torvik, and their computer numbers suggest they are more like a 4 or 5 seed.
  • According to KenPom, Arkansas is one of the “luckier” teams in the field, ranked 57th nationally in luck, meaning that they’ve won more games than their adjusted efficiency margin stats would indicate.
  • The Razorbacks are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 78.08 inches according to KenPom.com.
  • The Razorbacks have a notable size advantage on the inside, their power forwards and centers rank in the 92nd percentile in height compared to Oral Roberts bigs which rank in the 39th percentile.
  • Arkansas plays as fast as any team in the country. The Razorbacks average 75 possessions per game. Oral Roberts also loves to play fast and averages 73 possessions per game
  • Arkansas makes 74 percent of its free throws which should come in handy in a close game.
Extra Possessions
  • Arkansas does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Razorbacks score 18.3 points points per game off of turnovers.
  • Second chance points are crucial to Arkansas offense. The Razorbacks score 13.6 points off of second chances and only allow 10.1 points per game, outscoring teams by 3.6 points per game just on second chance opportunities. Oral Roberts has struggled on the glass and has been outscored by 8.3 points per game in the paint.
  • Arkansas is unique because its guards are aggressive on the offensive glass. Perimeter players account for 30.5 percent of the Razorbacks’ offensive boards. That should put extra pressure on Oral Roberts perimeter players to clean up the glass.
Shot Profile
  • Oral Roberts does a great job running its opponents off the 3-point line. ORU opponents attempt 32 percent of their shots from 3-point range and are shooting 34 percent from 3-point range while Arkansas is shooting 34 percent from outside and attempts 34 percent of its shots from long distance.
  • Arkansas dominates the paint. The Razorbacks score 36.0 points and allow 28.6 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 7.4 points per game. Oral Roberts has struggled inside this year and has been outscored by 16.0 points per game in the paint.
  • Arkansas offense doesn’t have a single player shooting 38% or better from 3-point range with over 50 attempts.
Style
  • Arkansas has an elite transition offense and scores 17.4 points per game in transition, while Oral Roberts transition defense has been run of the mill and allows 12.5 points per game in transition.
  • Oral Roberts defense excels at preventing assisted field goals and forcing one-on-one play with a style of “no help” defense popularized by Luke Yaklich. The Golden Eagles only allow their opponents to record assists on 44.3 percent of made baskets.
  • Arkansas runs a lot of off-ball actions. The Razorbacks score 10.8 points per game out of off-ball screens and cuts at 1.05 points per play. Oral Roberts defense is fairly average defending off the ball. Opponents score 0.97 points per play against the Golden Eagles.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik projects a 85-73 Arkansas victory over Oral Roberts and gives the Razorbacks a 85 percent chance at picking up the win.

ORU Personnel

#3 Max Abmas

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 165 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Transition Scorer Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Mega Usage Minutes Logger Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
24.6 3.2 3.9 121.8 28.6% 58.5%

#0 Kevin Obanor

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 225 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Stretch Big Man Pick and Pop Roll Man Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Defensive Rebounder Go-To Guy Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
18.7 9.6 1.1 117.3 25.9% 58.2%

#2 Kareem Thompson

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 190 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Corner 3-Point Specialist Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Poor Finisher
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.6 3.7 1.9 103.7 16.5% 50.9%

#10 RJ Glasper

Role: Domineering Ball Handler
Height: 6'0" | Weight: 180 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Transition Scorer Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
11 3.1 1.9 105.5 19.2% 51.3%

#14 DeShang Weaver

Role: Pick and Pop Big
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 200 lbs

Stretch Big Man Off the Dribble Shooter Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
6 2.5 0.4 107.4 14.8% 54.2%

ARK Personnel

#5 Moses Moody

Role: Runaround Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 205 lbs

Off Screen Shooter Transition Scorer Corner 3-Point Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
17 5.8 1.6 117.1 21.5% 51.1%

#1 JD Notae

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 195 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Isolation Scorer Mega Usage
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.8 3.2 1.9 99.1 28.2% 45.4%

#0 Justin Smith

Role: Reluctant Shooter
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 230 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Finisher Transition Scorer Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
13.8 7.3 1.7 113.1 20.8% 55.5%
🔥🔥🔥: Smith is averaging 19.6 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 5.8 points above his season average.

#11 Jalen Tate

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 175 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Turnover Prone Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10.9 3.8 3.9 105.3 20.1% 53%

#4 Davonte Davis

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 180 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Non Shooter Takes Tough Shots
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.3 4.4 2.1 101.2 19.2% 48.1%
🔥🔥🔥: Davis is averaging 12 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 3.7 points above his season average.

ATS

Arkansas ATS Performance

This Season

Arkansas is 19-11-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 15 of 30 Arkansas games (50%) this season.

Arkansas is 3-2-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 0 of Arkansas 5 games on neutral floors (0%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 Mississippi Valley State W, 142-62 -36.5 W 43.5 153.5 OVER 50.5
11/28/2020 North Texas W, 69-54 -8.5 W 6.5 149.5 UNDER -26.5
12/2/2020 UT Arlington W, 72-60 -15.5 L -3.5 149.5 UNDER -17.5
12/5/2020 Lipscomb W, 86-50 -16.5 W 19.5 144.5 UNDER -8.5
12/12/2020 Central Arkansas W, 100-75 -23.5 W 1.5 156 OVER 19
12/20/2020 Oral Roberts W, 87-76 -19 L -8 154 OVER 9
12/22/2020 Abilene Christian W, 85-72 -13.5 L -0.5 138 OVER 19
12/30/2020 at Auburn W, 97-85 -3 W 9 145.5 OVER 36.5
1/2/2021 Missouri L, 68-81 -6.5 L -19.5 146 OVER 3
1/6/2021 at Tennessee L, 74-79 8 W 3 142.5 OVER 10.5
1/9/2021 Georgia W, 99-69 -8.5 W 21.5 158.5 OVER 9.5
1/13/2021 at LSU L, 76-92 2.5 L -13.5 156.5 OVER 11.5
1/16/2021 at Alabama L, 59-90 2 L -29 161.5 UNDER -12.5
1/20/2021 Auburn W, 75-73 -4.5 L -2.5 156 UNDER -8
1/23/2021 at Vanderbilt W, 92-71 -7.5 W 13.5 153 OVER 10
1/27/2021 Ole Miss W, 74-59 -5 W 10 142.5 UNDER -9.5
1/30/2021 at Oklahoma State L, 77-81 2 L -2 151.5 OVER 6.5
2/2/2021 Mississippi State W, 61-45 -7 W 9 144 UNDER -38
2/9/2021 at Kentucky W, 81-80 1 W 2 143 OVER 18
2/13/2021 at Missouri W, 86-81 3.5 W 8.5 150 OVER 17
2/16/2021 Florida W, 75-64 -5 W 6 150 UNDER -11
2/24/2021 Alabama W, 81-66 1.5 W 16.5 157.5 UNDER -10.5
2/27/2021 LSU W, 83-75 -5.5 W 2.5 162.5 UNDER -4.5
3/2/2021 at South Carolina W, 101-73 -6.5 W 21.5 156.5 OVER 17.5
3/6/2021 Texas A&M W, 87-80 -14.5 L -7.5 136.5 OVER 30.5
3/12/2021 vs. Missouri W, 70-64 -5 W 1 150 UNDER -16
3/13/2021 vs. LSU L, 71-78 -3.5 L -10.5 162.5 UNDER -13.5
3/19/2021 vs. Colgate W, 85-68 -8.5 W 8.5 161.5 UNDER -8.5
3/21/2021 vs. Texas Tech W, 68-66 1.5 W 3.5 141 UNDER -7
3/27/2021 vs. Oral Roberts W, 72-70 -11.5 L -9.5 157 UNDER -15

Head to Head

Arkansas is 1-2-0 against the spread when it plays against Oral Roberts in recorded games since 2017. The over has hit in 2 out of 3 recorded head-to-head games (66.7%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
12/19/2017 Oral Roberts W, 104-69 -24.5 W 10.5 154 OVER 19
12/20/2020 Oral Roberts W, 87-76 -19 L -8 154 OVER 9
3/27/2021 vs. Oral Roberts W, 72-70 -11.5 L -9.5 157 UNDER -15

Oral Roberts ATS Performance

This Season

Oral Roberts is 17-9-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 17 of 26 Oral Roberts games (65.4%) this season.

Oral Roberts is 6-0-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 3 of Oral Roberts 6 games on neutral floors (50%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 at Missouri L, 64-91 12 L -15 147.5 OVER 7.5
12/2/2020 at Wichita State L, 80-85 12 W 7 151 OVER 14
12/8/2020 at Oklahoma State L, 78-83 17.5 W 12.5 153.5 OVER 7.5
12/16/2020 at Oklahoma L, 65-79 16.5 W 2.5 159.5 UNDER -15.5
12/20/2020 at Arkansas L, 76-87 19 W 8 154 OVER 9
1/2/2021 at Omaha W, 95-83 -2 W 10 152.5 OVER 25.5
1/3/2021 at Omaha W, 86-75 -1.5 W 9.5 152.5 OVER 8.5
1/8/2021 North Dakota L, 71-72 -10.5 L -11.5 145.5 UNDER -2.5
1/9/2021 North Dakota W, 74-57 -10.5 W 6.5 146.5 UNDER -15.5
1/15/2021 at Denver W, 88-84 -11.5 L -7.5 154.5 OVER 17.5
1/16/2021 at Denver W, 91-82 -11.5 L -2.5 154.5 OVER 18.5
1/23/2021 UMKC W, 60-58 -6.5 L -4.5 140 UNDER -22
1/24/2021 UMKC L, 76-81 -6.5 L -11.5 139.5 OVER 17.5
2/5/2021 at North Dakota State L, 54-61 5 L -2 142 UNDER -27
2/6/2021 at North Dakota State W, 80-74 4 W 10 139 OVER 15
2/13/2021 South Dakota State W, 103-86 3.5 W 20.5 159.5 OVER 29.5
2/14/2021 South Dakota State L, 80-95 3.5 L -11.5 157.5 OVER 17.5
2/20/2021 at South Dakota L, 84-86 3.5 W 1.5 158.5 OVER 11.5
2/27/2021 Western Illinois W, 85-81 -10 L -6 163 OVER 3
2/28/2021 Western Illinois W, 95-59 -9.5 W 26.5 163 UNDER -9
3/7/2021 vs. North Dakota W, 76-65 -7.5 W 3.5 153.5 UNDER -12.5
3/8/2021 vs. South Dakota State W, 90-88 4 W 6 162.5 OVER 15.5
3/9/2021 vs. North Dakota State W, 75-72 1 W 4 145.5 OVER 1.5
3/19/2021 vs. Ohio State W, 75-72 16.5 W 19.5 157.5 UNDER -10.5
3/21/2021 vs. Florida W, 81-78 8.5 W 11.5 148 OVER 11
3/27/2021 vs. Arkansas L, 70-72 11.5 W 9.5 157 UNDER -15

Head to Head

Oral Roberts is 2-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Arkansas in recorded games since 2017. The over has hit in 2 out of 3 recorded head-to-head games (66.7%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
12/19/2017 at Arkansas L, 69-104 24.5 L -10.5 154 OVER 19
12/20/2020 at Arkansas L, 76-87 19 W 8 154 OVER 9
3/27/2021 vs. Arkansas L, 70-72 11.5 W 9.5 157 UNDER -15
Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Justin Smith (03/23): Smith recorded 20 points (9-11 FG, 2-3 FT), six rebounds, two assists and one block during Sunday's NCAA Tournament win against Texas Tech.
  • Max Abmas (03/21): Abmas had 26 points (6-14 FG, 2-7 3Pt, 12-12 FT), seven assists, two rebounds and two steals across 40 minutes in Sunday's 81-78 victory over Florida.
  • Jaylin Williams (03/21): Williams is in the starting lineup for Sunday's game against Texas Tech, according to Scottie Bordelon of Arkansas Online.
  • Kevin Obanor (03/21): Obanor had 30 points (9-21 FG, 5-12 3pt, 7-7 FT) and 11 rebounds across 45 minutes in Friday's 75-72 OT victory over Ohio State.
  • Jaylin Williams (03/20): Williams failed to score (0-1 FG) while recording three rebounds over six minutes during Friday's 85-68 win over Colgate.
  • Moses Moody (03/15): Moody recorded 28 points (8-16 FG, 4-10 3Pt, 8-12 FT), nine rebounds, two steals and one assist during Saturday's SEC Tournament loss to LSU.
  • Jaylin Williams (03/14): Head coach Eric Musselman confirmed after Saturday's 78-71 loss to LSU that Williams (COVID-19 protocol) will be back for the NCAA Tournament, Kyle Deckelbaum of KATV reports.
  • Jaylin Williams (03/13): Williams (COVID protocol) isn't available for Saturday's game against LSU, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Jaylin Williams (03/12): Williams (COVID-19 protocol) isn't expected to play in Friday's game against Missouri, Scottie Bordelon of the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette reports.
  • Max Abmas (03/10): Abmas had 23 points (7-17 FG, 1-6 3Pt, 8-10 FT), seven assists and four rebounds across 40 minutes in Tuesday's 75-72 victory over North Dakota State.
  • Kevin Obanor (03/10): Obanor had 21 points (8-13 FG, 3-4 3Pt, 2-3 FT), nine rebounds, an assist and a block across 28 minutes in Tuesday's 75-72 victory over North Dakota State.
  • JD Notae (03/09): Notae was named the 2020-21 SEC Sixth Man of the Year on Tuesday.
  • Moses Moody (03/09): Moody was named the 2020-21 SEC Freshman of the Year on Tuesday.
  • Jalen Tate (03/08): Tate tallied 22 points (9-17 FG, 2-6 3Pt, 2-2 FT), seven rebounds and four assists during Saturday's win over Texas A&;M.
  • Jaylin Williams (03/06): Williams (not injury related) will not be available for Saturday's game against Texas A&;M, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Jaylin Williams (03/02): Williams will miss Tuesday's game against South Carolina due to COVID-19 protocol, Nikki Chavanelle of Rivals.com reports.
  • Justin Smith (03/01): Smith provided 19 points (8-12 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 2-2 FT), 10 rebounds, one assist, one block and one steal in Saturday's win over LSU.
  • Moses Moody (03/01): Moody tallied 18 points (3-14 FG, 1-5 3Pt, 11-14 FT), eight rebounds and five assists during Saturday's win over LSU.
  • Moses Moody (02/19): Moody and the Razorbacks won't play Saturday against Texas A&;M due to COVID-19 concerns, Jeff Borzello of ESPN.com reports.
  • Connor Vanover (02/15): Vanover recorded 12 points (5-7 FG, 2-4 3Pt), four rebounds, two assists and two blocks in Saturday's win over Missouri.
  • Justin Smith (02/15): Smith had 19 points (6-10 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 6-7 FT), six rebounds, three assists and two steals during Saturday's overtime win over Missouri.
  • Davonte Davis (02/15): Davis had eight points (3-10 FG, 2-2 FT), four rebounds and three assists during Saturday's overtime win against Missouri.
  • Jalen Tate (02/15): Tate added 14 points (5-9 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 3-4 FT), four rebounds, four assists, one steal and one block during Saturday's overtime win against Missouri.
  • Moses Moody (02/15): Moody managed 16 points (4-7 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 6-6 FT), five rebounds, two steals, two blocks and one assist during Saturday's overtime win at Missouri.
  • Max Abmas (02/15): Abmas had 30 points (9-23 FG, 6-11 3Pt, 6-6 FT), four assists, three rebounds and two steals across 40 minutes in Sunday's loss to South Dakota State.