Preview: Oklahoma vs. Gonzaga

Game Oklahoma Sooners vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Date: March 22nd, 2021 2:40 PM
TV: CBS
Spread: GONZ -15.5 Open -14
Total: 156 Open 154

Preview

Oklahoma Offense vs. Gonzaga Defense

The Sooners are ranked 34th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Oklahoma shoots 50.7 percent on twos and 34 percent on threes for a 50.8 effective field goal percentage.

Gonzaga’s defense is ranked 4th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 46.6 percent on twos and 32.2 percent on threes for a 47.2 effective field goal percentage against the Bulldogs.

Basics
  • Oklahoma is overseeded according to efficiency metrics. The 8th seeded Sooners are ranked 41st nationally, per Bart Torvik, and their computer numbers suggest they are more like a 9 or 10 seed.
  • Oklahoma is one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, averaging 2.1 years of experience weighted by minutes played, per KenPom.com.
  • Oklahoma makes 74 percent of its free throws which should come in handy in a close game.
Extra Possessions
Shot Profile
  • Oklahoma’s offense can be somewhat one-dimensional because there’s only one player (Gibson) on the roster who shoots 38% or better from 3-point range on 50+ attempts.
  • Oklahoma is a tough scout because its bigs can stretch the floor. The Sooners have one big with at least 75 3-point attempts including Brady Manek.
  • Oklahoma is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Sooners shoot 62 percent at the rim and Gonzaga allows 53 percent shooting inside of five feet.
  • Oklahoma’s offense is heavy on mid-range jumpers. The Sooners attempt 27 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 35 percent clip.
  • Gonzaga’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Bulldogs opponents attempt 29 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 37 percent clip. Oklahoma’s offense shoots 35 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Gonzaga’s defense excels at preventing assisted field goals and forcing one-on-one play with a style of “no help” defense popularized by Luke Yaklich. The Bulldogs only allow their opponents to record assists on 43.4 percent of made baskets.
  • Modern basketball is a ball screen game and Oklahoma’s offense is no exception. The Sooners score 30.3 points per game out of ball screens and average 0.88 points per ball screen play. Gonzaga’s defense excels at defending ball screens, allowing just 0.78 points per play which should set up a key strength-on-strength matchup.
  • Oklahoma runs a lot of isolation actions. The Sooners score 6.3 points per game out of isolation at 0.95 points per play. Gonzaga’s defense is fairly average defending isolations. Opponents score 0.85 points per isolation action (including pass-outs) against the Bulldogs.

Gonzaga Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense

Gonzaga checks in at 1st nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Bulldogs shoot 63.6 percent on twos and 37.4 percent on threes for a 61.1 effective field goal percentage.

Oklahoma is ranked 57th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Oklahoma opponents make 46.4 percent of their twos and 35.7 percent of their threes for a 49.1 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
  • Oklahoma’s defense has been struggling over the last month. The Sooners are ranked 156th in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 57th for the season.
  • The Bulldogs are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 78.13 inches according to KenPom.com.
  • Gonzaga plays as fast as any team in the country. The Bulldogs average 75 possessions per game.
  • You can trust Gonzaga at the line in a close game. The Bulldogs shoot 74 percent at the line for the season.
Extra Possessions
  • Gonzaga does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Bulldogs score 19.4 points points per game off of turnovers. Oklahoma avoids turnovers for touchdowns, allowing only 11.4 points per game off of giveaways.
  • Gonzaga is unique because its guards are aggressive on the offensive glass. Perimeter players account for 34.8 percent of the Bulldogs’ offensive boards. That should put extra pressure on Oklahoma’s perimeter players to clean up the glass.
Shot Profile
  • Oklahoma allows opponents to attempt 39 percent of their shots from 3-point range. OKLA opponents are shooting 35 percent from 3-point range while Gonzaga is shooting 37 percent from outside and attempts 33 percent of its shots from long distance.
  • Gonzaga dominates the paint. The Bulldogs score 49.5 points and allow 30.3 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 19.2 points per game.
  • Gonzaga is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Bulldogs shoot 71 percent at the rim and Oklahoma allows 54 percent shooting inside of five feet.
Style
  • Gonzaga loves to push the ball in transition. An impressive 22 percent of GONZ’s offensive plays are in transition and those transition plays create 18.5 points per game. Oklahoma’s defense does a great job of limiting transition opportunities and only allows 9.8 points per game in transition.
  • Oklahoma’s defense is unique for its ability to prevent assists. Only 47.5 percent of made baskets are assisted against the Sooners.
  • Gonzaga is reliant on ball screen screen offense. The Bulldogs score 28.8 points per game out of ball screen actions at 1.03 points per play. Oklahoma’s defense is fairly average containing ball screen looks. Opponents score 0.83 points per ball screen action (including pass-outs) against the Sooners.
  • Gonzaga relies on post-up offense to score. The Bulldogs average 11.1 points per game out of post-up actions. Oklahoma is fairly average defending the post, allowing 0.93 points per play.

Bottom Line

According to Bart Torvik, Gonzaga is a 86-71 favorite with a 90 percent chance of advancing.

OKLA Personnel

#12 Austin Reaves

Role: Domineering Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 202 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Go-To Guy Gets to the Line Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
18.4 5.5 4.6 111.2 28.3% 49.7%

#11 De'Vion Harmon

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 201 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Transition Scorer Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.8 3.4 2 107.0 20.0% 53.7%

#35 Brady Manek

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 231 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Stretch Big Man Pick and Pop Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10.8 5 0.8 109.5 20.6% 52.3%

#2 Umoja Gibson

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 168 lbs

Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.2 3.1 1.2 111.6 16.1% 53.3%
❄️❄️❄️: Gibson is averaging 2.8 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 6.4 points below his season average.

#24 Elijah Harkless

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 195 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Pick Pocket Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.1 5.4 2.3 93.6 18.6% 47.5%
🔥🔥🔥: Harkless is averaging 11.4 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 3.3 points above his season average.

GONZ Personnel

#24 Corey Kispert

Role: Runaround Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 220 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Off Screen Shooter Transition Scorer Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
19 4.9 1.7 134.5 20.7% 66.7%

#2 Drew Timme

Role: Post Up Big
Height: 6'10" | Weight: 235 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Finisher Roll Man Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Go-To Guy Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
18.9 7.2 2.3 129.8 26.7% 66.7%

#1 Jalen Suggs

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 205 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Go-To Guy Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
13.8 5.3 4.4 108.8 25.5% 54.8%

#11 Joel Ayayi

Role: Reluctant Shooter
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 180 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Transition Scorer Off the Dribble Shooter Smart Shot Selection Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12 7.1 2.8 128.8 16.4% 63.7%

#3 Andrew Nembhard

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 193 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.2 2.4 4.3 124.2 15.3% 56.1%

ATS

Gonzaga ATS Performance

This Season

Gonzaga is 14-13-1 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 15 of 28 Gonzaga games (53.6%) this season.

Gonzaga is 8-2-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 6 of Gonzaga’s 10 games on neutral floors (60%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/26/2020 vs. Kansas W, 102-90 -2.5 W 9.5 147.5 OVER 44.5
11/27/2020 vs. Auburn W, 90-67 14.5 W 37.5 158.5 UNDER -1.5
12/2/2020 vs. West Virginia W, 87-82 -7.5 L -2.5 154 OVER 15
12/19/2020 vs. Iowa W, 99-88 -3.5 W 7.5 173.5 OVER 13.5
12/21/2020 Northwestern State W, 95-57 -38.5 L -0.5 168 UNDER -16
12/22/2020 Northwestern State W, 95-78 -40.5 L -23.5 171.5 OVER 1.5
12/26/2020 vs. Virginia W, 98-75 -7 W 16 139.5 OVER 33.5
12/28/2020 Northern Arizona W, 88-58 -38.5 L -8.5 156.5 UNDER -10.5
1/2/2021 San Francisco W, 85-62 -19.5 W 3.5 162.5 UNDER -15.5
1/7/2021 BYU W, 86-69 -18.5 L -1.5 163.5 UNDER -8.5
1/9/2021 at Portland W, 116-88 -32.5 L -4.5 162.5 OVER 41.5
1/14/2021 Pepperdine W, 95-70 -25.5 L -0.5 163.5 OVER 1.5
1/16/2021 at Saint Mary's W, 73-59 -15.5 L -1.5 146 UNDER -14
1/23/2021 Pacific W, 95-49 -26 W 20 149.5 UNDER -5.5
1/28/2021 at San Diego W, 90-62 -27.5 W 0.5 156 UNDER -4
1/30/2021 at Pepperdine W, 97-75 -22 P 0 163 OVER 9
2/4/2021 at Pacific W, 76-58 -23.5 L -5.5 151.5 UNDER -17.5
2/8/2021 at BYU W, 82-71 -11.5 L -0.5 155.5 UNDER -2.5
2/13/2021 at San Francisco W, 100-61 -16.5 W 22.5 156.5 OVER 4.5
2/18/2021 Saint Mary's W, 87-65 -21 W 1 142.5 OVER 9.5
2/20/2021 San Diego W, 106-69 -32.5 W 4.5 153.5 OVER 21.5
2/25/2021 Santa Clara W, 89-75 -30.5 L -16.5 155 OVER 9
2/27/2021 Loyola Marymount W, 86-69 -25 L -8 153.5 OVER 1.5
3/8/2021 vs. Saint Mary's W, 78-55 -18.5 W 4.5 141.5 UNDER -8.5
3/9/2021 vs. BYU W, 88-78 -14 L -4 154.5 OVER 11.5
3/20/2021 vs. Norfolk State W, 98-55 -34 W 9 154.5 UNDER -1.5
3/22/2021 vs. Oklahoma W, 87-71 -14 W 2 154 OVER 4
3/28/2021 vs. Creighton W, 83-65 -13 W 5 159 UNDER -11

Head to Head

Gonzaga is 1-0-0 against the spread when it plays against Oklahoma in recorded games since 2021. The over has hit in 1 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (100%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/22/2021 vs. Oklahoma W, 87-71 -14 W 2 154 OVER 4

Oklahoma ATS Performance

This Season

Oklahoma is 13-14-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 14 of 27 Oklahoma games (51.9%) this season.

Oklahoma is 1-2-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 3 of Oklahoma’s 3 games on neutral floors (100%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
12/3/2020 UTSA W, 105-66 -15 W 24 158.5 OVER 12.5
12/6/2020 at TCU W, 82-78 -3 W 1 134.5 OVER 25.5
12/9/2020 at Xavier L, 77-99 1.5 L -20.5 147.5 OVER 28.5
12/12/2020 Florida A&M W, 85-54 -26.5 W 4.5 148.5 UNDER -9.5
12/16/2020 Oral Roberts W, 79-65 -16.5 L -2.5 159.5 UNDER -15.5
12/19/2020 Houston Baptist W, 84-65 -32.5 L -13.5 162 UNDER -13
12/22/2020 Texas Tech L, 67-69 1.5 L -0.5 135.5 OVER 0.5
1/2/2021 West Virginia W, 75-71 -1 W 3 143.5 OVER 2.5
1/6/2021 at Baylor L, 61-76 11.5 L -3.5 151 UNDER -14
1/9/2021 at Kansas L, 59-63 7 W 3 144.5 UNDER -22.5
1/12/2021 TCU W, 82-46 -8 W 28 139 UNDER -11
1/19/2021 Kansas State W, 76-50 -14 W 12 137 UNDER -11
1/23/2021 Kansas W, 75-68 1 W 8 142.5 OVER 0.5
1/26/2021 at Texas W, 80-79 4.5 W 5.5 143 OVER 16
1/30/2021 Alabama W, 66-61 1.5 W 6.5 154.5 UNDER -27.5
2/1/2021 at Texas Tech L, 52-57 6.5 W 1.5 138.5 UNDER -29.5
2/6/2021 Iowa State W, 79-72 -14.5 L -7.5 140.5 OVER 10.5
2/13/2021 at West Virginia W, 91-90 3 W 4 145.5 OVER 35.5
2/20/2021 at Iowa State W, 66-56 -11.5 L -1.5 144.5 UNDER -22.5
2/23/2021 at Kansas State L, 57-62 -10.5 L -15.5 131 UNDER -12
2/27/2021 Oklahoma State L, 90-94 -5 L -9 139.5 OVER 44.5
3/1/2021 at Oklahoma State L, 75-79 0 L -4 141.5 OVER 12.5
3/4/2021 Texas L, 65-69 -2 L -6 142.5 UNDER -8.5
3/10/2021 vs. Iowa State W, 79-73 -11.5 L -5.5 140.5 OVER 11.5
3/11/2021 at Kansas L, 62-69 3.5 L -3.5 137 UNDER -6
3/20/2021 vs. Missouri W, 72-68 -1 W 3 139.5 OVER 0.5
3/22/2021 vs. Gonzaga L, 71-87 14 L -2 154 OVER 4

Head to Head

Oklahoma is 0-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Gonzaga in recorded games since 2021. The over has hit in 1 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (100%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/22/2021 vs. Gonzaga L, 71-87 14 L -2 154 OVER 4
Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Drew Timme (03/28): Timme recorded 22 points (10-14 FG, 0-1 3Pt, 2-3 FT), six rebounds and four assists in 27 minutes during Sunday's 83-65 win over Creighton.
  • Andrew Nembhard (03/28): Nembhard posted 17 points (7-9 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 0-0 FT), four rebounds and eight assists across 36 minutes in Sunday's 83-65 victory over Creighton.
  • De'Vion Harmon (03/26): Harmon has declared for the 2021 NBA Draft, per his personal Twitter profile.
  • Trey Phipps (03/25): Phipps placed his name in the transfer portal Thursday and is expected to leave Oklahoma, VerbalCommits.com reports.
  • Corey Kispert (03/23): Kispert posted 16 points (5-11 FG, 4-8 3Pt, 2-2 FT), three rebounds and zero assists in 30 minutes during Monday's 87-71 win over Oklahoma.
  • Drew Timme (03/23): Timme tallied 30 points (9-12 FG, 0-0 3Pt, 12-14 FT), 13 rebounds and four assists across 34 minutes in Monday's 87-71 victory over Oklahoma.
  • Elijah Harkless (03/21): Harkless notched a double-double with 16 points (6-10 FG, 1-1 3Pt, 3-4 FT), 10 rebounds, two steals, and an assist in the win over Missouri on Saturday.
  • Brady Manek (03/21): Manek put up 19 points (6-13 FG, 5-9 3Pt, 2-2 FT), three rebounds, and one steal in the win over Missouri on Saturday.
  • Austin Reaves (03/21): Reaves dropped a game-high 23 points (6-16 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 10-12 FT), six assists, and four rebounds, in Saturday's win over Missouri.
  • Anton Watson (03/21): Watson posted 17 points (7-7 FG, 1-1 3Pt, 2-2 FT), seven rebounds and four assists in 24 minutes during Saturday's 98-55 victory over Norfolk St.
  • Joel Ayayi (03/21): Ayayi posted 15 points (6-12 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 2-2 FT), nine rebounds and two assists across 28 minutes in Saturday's 98-55 victory over Norfolk St.
  • Jalen Hill (03/20): Hill will start Saturday's NCAA Tournament game against Missouri, Dave Matter of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
  • De'Vion Harmon (03/17): Harmon won't play in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament after testing positive for COVID-19, Ryan Aber of The Oklahoman reports.
  • Austin Reaves (03/11): Reaves had 21 points (5-11 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 7-8 FT), five rebounds and three assists across 33 minutes in Wednesday's 79-73 victory over Iowa State.
  • Jalen Suggs (03/09): Suggs recorded 23 points (7-15 FG, 4-7 3Pt, 5-8 FT), five rebounds and five assists in 33 minutes during Tuesday's 88-78 victory over BYU.
  • Joel Ayayi (03/09): Ayayi posted 16 points (7-9 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 0-0 FT), eight rebounds and one assist in 28 minutes during Monday's 78-55 win over Saint Mary's.
  • Andrew Nembhard (03/02): Nembhard was named the West Coast Conference Sixth Man of the Year on Tuesday.
  • Jalen Suggs (03/02): Suggs was named the West Coast Conference Newcomer of the Year on Tuesday.
  • Corey Kispert (03/02): Kispert was named the West Coast Conference Player of the Year on Tuesday.
  • Drew Timme (02/28): Timme tallied 16 points (5-9 FG, 0-1 3Pt, 6-11 FT), seven rebounds and four assists in 29 minutes during Saturday's 86-69 win over Loyola Marymount.
  • Austin Reaves (02/27): Reaves put up 22 points (7-18 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 7-9 FT), eight assists, six rebounds, two steals, and a block in the loss to Oklahoma State on Saturday.
  • De'Vion Harmon (02/27): Harmon had a team-high 23 points (9-13 FG, 3-6 3Pt, 2-2 FT), four rebounds, and two assists in the loss to Oklahoma State on Saturday.
  • Elijah Harkless (02/27): Harkless won't start Saturday's game against Oklahoma State, Cody Nagel of 247Sports.com reports.
  • Jalen Hill (02/27): Hill will start Saturday's game against Oklahoma State, Cody Nagel of 247Sports.com reports.
  • Corey Kispert (02/26): Kispert tallied 25 points (10-17 FG, 3-8 3Pt, 2-2 FT), seven rebounds and zero assists across 39 minutes in Thursday's 89-75 win over Santa Clara.