Preview: North Texas vs. Villanova

Game North Texas Mean Green vs. Villanova Wildcats
Date: March 21st, 2021 9:00 PM
TV: TNT
Spread: VILL -6 Open -6.5
Total: 125.5 Open: 126.5

Preview

North Texas Offense vs. Villanova Defense

The Mean Green are ranked 107th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. North Texas shoots 52.7 percent on twos and 37.2 percent on threes for a 53.8 effective field goal percentage.

Villanova’s defense is ranked 71st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 50.7 percent on twos and 34.3 percent on threes for a 51 effective field goal percentage against the Wildcats.

Basics
  • North Texas is one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, averaging 2.36 years of experience weighted by minutes played, per KenPom.com.
  • According to KenPom, North Texas ranked 260th nationally in luck, meaning that their adjusted efficiency margin stats indicate they should have a better record and have come up short in close games.
  • North Texas plays at a deliberate pace. The Mean Green average 65 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball. Villanova also prefers to play alow and Wildcats games only average 66 possessions per game. Expect this to be a grinding low-possession game.
  • North Texas makes 75 percent of its free throws which should come in handy in a close game.
Extra Possessions
  • The game should be fairly turnover neutral on this side of the ball. North Texas turns it over on 19.9 percent of possessions and Villanova forces giveaways on 18.4 percent of possessions.
Shot Profile
  • Villanova allows opponents to attempt 40 percent of their shots from 3-point range. VILL opponents are shooting 34 percent from 3-point range while North Texas is shooting 37 percent from outside and attempts 38 percent of its shots from long distance.
  • Villanova does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, VILL contests 57 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, North Texas excels at creating open jumpers. Only 37 percent of the Mean Green’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • North Texas is a tough scout because its bigs can stretch the floor. The Mean Green have one big with at least 75 3-point attempts including Thomas Bell.
  • North Texas is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Mean Green shoot 59 percent at the rim and Villanova allows 57 percent shooting inside of five feet.
Style
  • Villanova’s defense excels at preventing assisted field goals and forcing one-on-one play with a style of “no help” defense popularized by Luke Yaklich. The Wildcats only allow their opponents to record assists on 48.9 percent of made baskets.

Villanova Offense vs. North Texas Defense

The Wildcats are ranked 7th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Villanova shoots 53.4 percent on twos and 35.3 percent on threes for a 53.2 effective field goal percentage.

North Texas defense is ranked 58th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 45.1 percent on twos and 32.6 percent on threes for a 46.4 effective field goal percentage against the Mean Green.

Basics
  • Villanova’s offense enters the tournament on a cold streak. Over the last 30 days, the Wildcats are ranked 41st in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to 7th for the year.
  • North Texas defense needs to get back on track in the NCAA Tournament. Over the last 30 days, the Mean Green are ranked 142nd in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to 58th overall.
  • Villanova is underseeded according to efficiency metrics. The 5th seeded Wildcats are ranked 14th nationally per Bart Torvik. Their computer numbers suggest they should be closer to a 3 or 4 seed.
  • The Wildcats are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 77.95 inches according to KenPom.com.
  • Villanova plays at a deliberate pace. The Wildcats average 66 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball. North Texas also prefers to play alow and Mean Green games only average 65 possessions per game. Expect this to be a grinding low-possession game.
  • Villanova makes 76 percent of its free throws which should come in handy in a close game.
Extra Possessions
  • Villanova does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Wildcats only turn it over on 13.7 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a North Texas defense that forces giveaways on 20.9 percent of possessions.
  • Second chance points are crucial to Villanova’s offense. The Wildcats score 10.6 points off of second chances and only allow 7.4 points per game, outscoring teams by 3.2 points per game just on second chance opportunities. North Texas has struggled on the glass and has been outscored by 2.8 points per game in the paint.
Shot Profile
  • Villanova’s offensive attack is perimeter-oriented. The Wildcats attempt 44 percent of their shots from 3-point range. The Wildcats also make a lot of those attempts, shooting 36 percent from outside the arc.
  • Villanova is a tough scout because its bigs can stretch the floor. The Wildcats have one big with at least 75 3-point attempts including Jeremiah Robinson-Earl.
  • Villanova is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Wildcats shoot 62 percent at the rim and North Texas allows 55 percent shooting inside of five feet.
  • North Texas defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Mean Green opponents attempt 28 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 31 percent clip. Villanova’s offense shoots 37 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Villanova is one of the better passing teams in the country and 57.1 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season. On the other side, North Texas defense excels at preventing assisted field goals and forcing one-on-one play. The Mean Green only allow their opponents to record assists on 44.3 percent of made baskets.
  • Villanova has one of the most dominant post-up offenses in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 11.5 points per game on 1.02 points per post-up play. North Texas defense should be up to the challenge, allowing 0.82 points per post-up play.
  • Villanova runs a lot of isolation actions. The Wildcats score 6.5 points per game out of isolation at 0.85 points per play. North Texas defense is fairly average defending isolations. Opponents score 0.76 points per isolation action (including pass-outs) against the Mean Green.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik projects a 66-59 Villanova victory over North Texas and gives the Wildcats a 77 percent chance at picking up the win.

UNT Personnel

#3 Javion Hamlet

Role: Domineering Ball Handler
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 193 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Go-To Guy Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
15.6 3.8 4.5 109.4 28.2% 47.6%
🔥🔥🔥: Hamlet is averaging 20.4 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 4.8 points above his season average.

#0 James Reese

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 167 lbs

Pick Pocket Off the Dribble Shooter Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10.9 4.2 1.4 107.2 18.2% 52.4%

#13 Thomas Bell

Role: Pick and Pop Big
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 190 lbs

Stretch Big Man Catch and Shoot Smart Shot Selection Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10.4 5.9 1 110.8 19.6% 60.5%

#24 Zachary Simmons

Role: Post Up Big
Height: 6'10" | Weight: 249 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Finisher Turnover Prone Non Shooter Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10 6 1.9 107.9 21.8% 64.5%

#1 Mardrez McBride

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 178 lbs

Corner 3-Point Specialist Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
7.9 2.4 1.3 116.6 15.5% 58.5%
🔥🔥🔥: McBride is averaging 13 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 5.1 points above his season average.

VILL Personnel

#24 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 230 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Stretch Big Man Pick and Pop Roll Man Mid-Range Specialist Isolation Scorer Defensive Rebounder Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
15.7 8.5 2.2 114.0 24.2% 53.4%

#5 Justin Moore

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 210 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Isolation Scorer Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.9 4.1 3 108.5 21.3% 51.5%

#23 Jermaine Samuels

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 230 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12 6.4 2.5 124.8 20.8% 54.4%
🔥🔥🔥: Samuels is averaging 16.6 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 4.6 points above his season average.

#2 Collin Gillespie

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 190 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Ball Screen Creator Distributor Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
14 3.2 4.6 119.0 22.1% 52.6%

#14 Caleb Daniels

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 210 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Corner 3-Point Specialist Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.6 2.2 1.2 101.4 20.0% 52.9%

ATS

Villanova ATS Performance

This Season

Villanova is 14-11-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 14 of 25 Villanova games (56%) this season.

Villanova is 4-4-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 5 of Villanova’s 8 games on neutral floors (62.5%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 vs. Boston College W, 76-67 -14.5 L -5.5 141.5 OVER 1.5
11/26/2020 vs. Arizona State W, 83-74 -6 W 3 157 UNDER 0
11/28/2020 vs. Virginia Tech L, 73-81 -8.5 L -16.5 137.5 OVER 16.5
12/1/2020 vs. Hartford W, 87-53 -26.5 W 7.5 138.5 OVER 1.5
12/6/2020 at Texas W, 68-64 1.5 W 5.5 133 UNDER -1
12/11/2020 at Georgetown W, 76-63 -11.5 W 1.5 142.5 UNDER -3.5
12/16/2020 Butler W, 85-66 -13.5 W 5.5 131.5 OVER 19.5
12/19/2020 Saint Joseph's W, 88-68 -21.5 L -1.5 153.5 OVER 2.5
12/23/2020 at Marquette W, 85-68 -4 W 13 141 OVER 12
1/19/2021 Seton Hall W, 76-74 -9.5 L -7.5 140 OVER 10
1/23/2021 Providence W, 71-56 -11 W 4 138.5 UNDER -11.5
1/30/2021 at Seton Hall W, 80-72 -5.5 W 2.5 142.5 OVER 9.5
2/3/2021 at St. John's L, 59-70 -10 L -21 151 UNDER -22
2/7/2021 Georgetown W, 84-74 -13.5 L -3.5 145 OVER 13
2/10/2021 Marquette W, 96-64 -10.5 W 21.5 139.5 OVER 20.5
2/13/2021 at Creighton L, 70-86 -2.5 L -18.5 144.5 OVER 11.5
2/20/2021 UConn W, 68-60 -7.5 W 0.5 137 UNDER -9
2/23/2021 St. John's W, 81-58 -11 W 12 152.5 UNDER -13.5
2/28/2021 at Butler L, 61-73 -12 L -24 131.5 OVER 2.5
3/3/2021 Creighton W, 72-60 -4.5 W 7.5 147 UNDER -15
3/6/2021 at Providence L, 52-54 -4.5 L -6.5 138.5 UNDER -32.5
3/11/2021 vs. Georgetown L, 71-72 -8.5 L -9.5 140.5 OVER 2.5
3/19/2021 vs. Winthrop W, 73-63 -6.5 W 3.5 143 UNDER -7
3/21/2021 vs. North Texas W, 84-61 -5.5 W 17.5 127 OVER 18
3/27/2021 vs. Baylor L, 51-62 7.5 L -3.5 142.5 UNDER -29.5

Head to Head

Villanova is 1-0-0 against the spread when it plays against North Texas in recorded games since 2021. The over has hit in 1 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (100%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/21/2021 vs. North Texas W, 84-61 -5.5 W 17.5 127 OVER 18

North Texas ATS Performance

This Season

North Texas is 17-10-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 12 of 27 North Texas games (44.4%) this season.

North Texas is 5-1-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 3 of North Texas 6 games on neutral floors (50%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/26/2020 Mississippi Valley State W, 116-62 -38 W 16 155.5 OVER 22.5
11/28/2020 at Arkansas L, 54-69 8.5 L -6.5 149.5 UNDER -26.5
12/4/2020 at Mississippi State L, 63-69 3 L -3 134.5 UNDER -2.5
12/11/2020 at West Virginia L, 50-62 14.5 W 2.5 138.5 UNDER -26.5
12/15/2020 Arkansas-Pine Bluff W, 81-56 -22.5 W 2.5 131 OVER 6
12/17/2020 Houston Baptist W, 85-55 -23.5 W 6.5 152.5 UNDER -12.5
1/2/2021 at Loyola (Chi) L, 49-57 7.5 L -0.5 133 UNDER -27
1/8/2021 at UTSA W, 77-70 -6.5 W 0.5 144 OVER 3
1/9/2021 at UTSA L, 69-77 -6.5 L -14.5 144.5 OVER 1.5
1/15/2021 UTEP W, 63-33 -5.5 W 24.5 132.5 UNDER -36.5
1/16/2021 UTEP W, 74-65 -5.5 W 3.5 132.5 OVER 6.5
1/29/2021 at Rice W, 79-74 -7.5 L -2.5 137.5 OVER 15.5
1/31/2021 Rice W, 79-53 -11.5 W 14.5 139.5 UNDER -7.5
2/5/2021 Louisiana Tech L, 63-68 -4.5 L -9.5 131 UNDER 0
2/6/2021 Louisiana Tech W, 57-55 -4 L -2 130.5 UNDER -18.5
2/12/2021 at Southern Miss W, 65-49 -8.5 W 7.5 126.5 UNDER -12.5
2/13/2021 at Southern Miss W, 68-56 -8.5 W 3.5 125.5 UNDER -1.5
2/26/2021 at Marshall W, 77-65 4 W 16 140.5 OVER 1.5
2/27/2021 at Marshall L, 72-73 4 W 3 142.5 OVER 2.5
3/5/2021 UAB L, 51-65 -5 L -19 127 UNDER -11
3/6/2021 UAB L, 61-65 -4.5 L -8.5 125 OVER 1
3/10/2021 vs. Middle Tennessee W, 76-56 -15 W 5 127.5 OVER 4.5
3/11/2021 vs. Old Dominion W, 61-55 -4 W 2 127.5 UNDER -11.5
3/12/2021 vs. Louisiana Tech W, 54-48 1 W 7 127.5 UNDER -25.5
3/13/2021 vs. Western Kentucky W, 61-57 -1 W 3 126.5 UNDER -8.5
3/19/2021 vs. Purdue W, 78-69 7.5 W 16.5 126.5 OVER 20.5
3/21/2021 vs. Villanova L, 61-84 5.5 L -17.5 127 OVER 18

Head to Head

North Texas is 0-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Villanova in recorded games since 2021. The over has hit in 1 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (100%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/21/2021 vs. Villanova L, 61-84 5.5 L -17.5 127 OVER 18
Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Brandon Slater (03/28): Slater (ankle) ended up checking back into Saturday's 62-51 loss to Baylor with just over a minute remaining after he injured his left ankle earlier in the second half, Joe Juliano of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
  • James Reese (03/24): Rees has moved into the transfer portal, VerbalCommits.com reports.
  • Jalen Jackson (03/24): Jackson is in the transfer portal, VerbalCommits.com reports.
  • Rubin Jones (03/22): Jones (ankle) didn't play in Sunday's 84-61 loss to Villanova.
  • Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (03/22): Robinson-Earl recorded 18 points (8-14 FG, 2-5 3Pt), six rebounds, six assists, one steal and one block during 36 minutes in the 84-61 win against North Texas on Sunday.
  • Jermaine Samuels (03/22): Samuels finished with 15 points (5-9 FG, 1-4 3Pt, 4-4 FT), nine rebounds and four assists through 30 minutes in the 84-61 win over North Texas on Sunday.
  • Justin Moore (03/19): Moore is in the starting lineup for Friday's game against Winthrop, C.J. Holmes of The Athletic reports.
  • Brandon Slater (03/19): Slater isn't starting Friday's game against Winthrop, C.J. Holmes of The Athletic reports.
  • Rubin Jones (03/17): Jones (ankle) won't be available for Friday's NCAA Tournament game versus Purdue, Brett Vito of the Denton Record-Chronicle reports.
  • Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (03/11): Robinson-Earl recorded 26 points (9-13 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 7-13 FT), six rebounds and two assists through 36 minutes in the 72-71 Quarterfinal upset loss to Georgetown on Thursday.
  • Justin Moore (03/11): Moore (ankle) had 10 points (4-7 FG, 2-5 3Pt), two assists and one rebounds across 27 minutes before fouling out of Thursday's 72-71 loss to Georgetown.
  • Jermaine Samuels (03/11): Samuels had 20 points (7-17 FG, 4-11 3Pt, 2-2 FT), seven rebounds and four assists across 31 minutes in Thursday's 72-71 loss to Georgetown.
  • Javion Hamlet (03/11): Hamlet compiled 21 points (9-16 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 2-5 FT), 11 assists, seven rebounds and one steal across 38 minutes Wednesday in North Texas' 76-56 win over Middle Tennessee State in the second round of the Conference USA tournament.
  • Cole Swider (03/11): Swider isn't among the starters for Thursday's Big East Tournament opener versus Georgetown.
  • Brandon Slater (03/11): Slater will start the Big East Tournament opener Thursday versus Georgetown.
  • Rubin Jones (03/10): Jones (ankle) will miss the entire Conference USA tournament, Brett Vito of the Denton Record-Chronicle reports.
  • Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (03/10): Robinson-Earl was one of three players named 2020-21 Big East Player of the Year on Wednesday, joining teammate Collin Gillespie and Seton Hall's Sandro Mamukelashvili.
  • Collin Gillespie (03/10): Gillespie (knee) was one of three players named 2020-21 Big East Player of the Year on Wednesday, joining teammate Jeremiah Robinson-Early and Seton Hall's Sandro Mamukelashvili.
  • Justin Moore (03/08): Moore (ankle) is doubtful to play in this week's Big East Tournament, coach Jay Wright tweeted Monday.
  • Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (03/08): Robinson-Earl recorded 11 points (5-15 FG, 0-3 3Pt, 1-2 FT), 13 rebounds, one assist, one steal and one block during 36 minutes in the 54-52 loss to Providence on Saturday.
  • Jermaine Samuels (03/08): Samuels finished with 21 points (7-11 FG, 7-8 FT), eight rebounds and one assist through 34 minutes during the 54-52 loss to Providence on Saturday.
  • Collin Gillespie (03/07): Gillespie said after Villanova's 54-52 loss to Providence on Saturday that he'll undergo surgery this week to address a torn MCL in his left knee, ESPN.com reports.
  • Rubin Jones (03/06): Jones suffered an apparent ankle injury midway through the first half in Saturday's game against UAB and appeared to be in a lot of pain as he made his way off the court, Brett Vito of the Denton Record-Chronicle reports.
  • Cole Swider (03/06): Swider is in the starting lineup for Saturday's game against Providence, Bill Koch of The Providence Journal reports.
  • Collin Gillespie (03/03): Head coach Jay Wright said Wednesday he believes Gillespie's knee injury is "serious," Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.