Preview: Miami (FL) vs. USC

Game Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs. USC Trojans
Date: March 18th, 2022 3:10 PM
TV: truTV
Spread: USC -2.5 Open -1.5
Total: 139.5

Preview

Miami (FL) Offense vs. USC Defense

The Hurricanes are ranked 17th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Miami (FL) shoots 54.9 percent on twos and 35.3 percent on threes for a 54.2 effective field goal percentage.

USC’s defense is ranked 68th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 41.9 percent on twos and 34 percent on threes for a 45.1 effective field goal percentage against the Trojans.

Basics
  • USC’s defense needs to get back on track in the NCAA Tournament. Over the last 30 days, the Trojans are ranked 103rd in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to 68th overall.
  • According to KenPom, Miami (FL) is one of the “luckier” teams in the field, ranked 50th nationally in luck, meaning that they’ve won more games than their adjusted efficiency margin stats would indicate.
  • USC plays a notable amount of zone defense. The Trojans utilize zone defense on 7.7 percent of their defensive plays, per Synergy. That’s more than most Division I teams and they allow 0.89 points per play in zone defense. Miami (FL) has been fairly average against zone defenses this year, scoring just 0.9 points per play.
  • Miami (FL) makes 74 percent of its free throws which should come in handy in a close game.
Extra Possessions
  • Miami (FL) does a great job of valuing the basketball, turnovers on just 14.2 percent of possessions, and USC’s defense doesn’t prioritize forcing giveaways. The Trojans only force giveaways on 14.8 percent of opponent possessions, so expect a low turnover performance by Miami (FL)’s offense.
Shot Profile
  • USC does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, USC contests 68 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Miami (FL)’s offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 53 percent of the Hurricanes’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • Miami (FL)’s offense can be somewhat one-dimensional because there’s only one player (Waardenburg) on the roster who shoots 38% or better from 3-point range on 50+ attempts.
  • Miami (FL) is a tough scout because its bigs can stretch the floor. The Hurricanes have one big with at least 75 3-point attempts including Sam Waardenburg.
  • USC’s defense excels around the bucket, allowing 49 percent shooting within five-feet of the rim. Miami (FL) is generally a great finishing team, making 65 percent of its shots at the bucket — setting up a key battle inside.
  • USC’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Trojans opponents attempt 30 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 33 percent clip. Miami (FL)’s offense shoots 39 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style

USC Offense vs. Miami (FL) Defense

USC checks in at 55th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Trojans shoot 49.6 percent on twos and 35.3 percent on threes for a 50.7 effective field goal percentage.

Miami (FL) is ranked 140th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Miami (FL) opponents make 53.9 percent of their twos and 35.1 percent of their threes for a 53.4 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
  • USC’s offense has been struggling over the last month. The Trojans are ranked 92nd in adjusted offensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 55th for the season.
  • Miami (FL)’s defense has been playing very well over the last month. The Hurricanes are ranked 107th in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 140th for the season.
  • According to KenPom, USC is one of the “luckier” teams in the field, ranked 34th nationally in luck, meaning that they’ve won more games than their adjusted efficiency margin stats would indicate.
  • The Trojans are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 79.09 inches according to KenPom.com.
  • The Trojans have a size advantage on the perimeter as their guards rank in the 90th percentile size wise compared to Miami (FL)’s guards which rank in the 21st percentile.
  • USC has struggled at the free-throw line all season, shooting just 67 percent at the stripe this year.
Extra Possessions
  • Miami (FL) is one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers. MIA forces giveaways on 20.3 percent of offensive possessions while USC turns it over on 17.9 percent of its possessions this season.
  • The Trojans are fantastic on the offensive glass and rebound 34 percent of their missed shots. Miami (FL) is just okay on the defensive glass, grabbing 69.5 percent of opponent misses, which means the rebounding battle could swing this game in either direction.
Shot Profile
  • Miami (FL) allows opponents to attempt 39 percent of their shots from 3-point range. MIA opponents are shooting 35 percent from 3-point range while USC is shooting 35 percent from outside and attempts 32 percent of its shots from long distance.
  • USC’s offense can be somewhat one-dimensional because there’s only one player (Peterson) on the roster who shoots 38% or better from 3-point range on 50+ attempts.
  • USC is a tough scout because its bigs can stretch the floor. The Trojans have one big with at least 75 3-point attempts including Isaiah Mobley.
  • USC’s offense is heavy on mid-range jumpers. The Trojans attempt 28 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 39 percent clip.
Style
  • USC has an elite transition offense and scores 13.2 points per game in transition, while Miami (FL)’s transition defense has been run of the mill and allows 10.1 points per game in transition.
  • Miami (FL)’s defense gives up assists on 56.6 percent of made baskets which is a sign that they help too aggressively.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik lists Miami (FL) as a 72-71 favorite, giving the Hurricanes a 52 percent chance of advancing.

MIA Personnel

#23 Kameron McGusty

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 190 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Pick Pocket Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Go-To Guy Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
17.5 4.8 2.5 112.6 25.7% 54.6%

#2 Isaiah Wong

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 180 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
15.2 4.3 2 107.1 23.2% 51%

#3 Charlie Moore

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 5'11" | Weight: 175 lbs

Distributor Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.6 2.5 4.5 108.0 22.7% 53.4%

#11 Jordan Miller

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 195 lbs

Finisher Pick Pocket Smart Shot Selection Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10.2 6.2 1.1 124.4 16.1% 60%
🔥🔥🔥: Miller is averaging 15.8 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 5.6 points above his season average.

#21 Sam Waardenburg

Role: Pick and Pop Big
Height: 6'10" | Weight: 225 lbs

Stretch Big Man Pick and Pop Roll Man Catch and Shoot Smart Shot Selection Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.6 4.2 2.1 122.8 14.4% 63.3%

USC Personnel

#3 Isaiah Mobley

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'10" | Weight: 235 lbs

Stretch Big Man Pick and Pop Roll Man Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
14.3 8.5 3.2 112.9 22.5% 50.9%

#0 Boogie Ellis

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 180 lbs

Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.8 3.3 2.5 108.6 21.6% 50.3%

#13 Drew Peterson

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 185 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.3 6.2 3.3 108.3 20.6% 54.3%

#1 Chevez Goodwin

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 225 lbs

Finisher Roll Man Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Cut and Finish Efficient Shooter Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
11 6.5 0.6 106.3 23.4% 57%
❄️❄️❄️: Goodwin is averaging 6.6 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 4.4 points below his season average.

#23 Max Agbonkpolo

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 190 lbs

Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
7.8 3.4 0.7 102.5 18.6% 51.4%

ATS

USC ATS Performance

This Season

USC is 15-18-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 15 of 33 USC games (45.5%) this season.

USC is 2-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 0 of USC’s 5 games on neutral floors (0%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/9/2021 CSU Northridge W, 89-49 -24.5 W 15.5 146.5 UNDER -8.5
11/13/2021 at Temple W, 76-71 -6 L -1 136.5 OVER 10.5
11/16/2021 at Florida Gulf Coast W, 78-61 -12.5 W 4.5 141.5 UNDER -2.5
11/22/2021 Dixie State W, 98-71 -26 W 1 147.5 OVER 21.5
11/25/2021 vs. Saint Joseph's W, 70-55 -18 L -3 147.5 UNDER -22.5
11/26/2021 vs. San Diego State W, 58-43 -3 W 12 131.5 UNDER -30.5
12/1/2021 Utah W, 93-73 -7.5 W 12.5 136.5 OVER 29.5
12/4/2021 at Washington State W, 63-61 1 W 3 139.5 UNDER -15.5
12/7/2021 Eastern Kentucky W, 80-68 -18 L -6 151 UNDER -3
12/12/2021 Long Beach State W, 73-62 -27.5 L -16.5 145 UNDER -10
12/15/2021 UC Irvine W, 66-61 -12 L -7 129.5 UNDER -2.5
12/18/2021 vs. Georgia Tech W, 67-53 8 W 22 134.5 UNDER -14.5
1/6/2022 at California W, 77-63 -5.5 W 8.5 125 OVER 15
1/11/2022 at Stanford L, 69-75 -4.5 L -10.5 137.5 OVER 6.5
1/13/2022 Oregon State W, 81-71 -15.5 L -5.5 141 OVER 11
1/15/2022 Oregon L, 69-79 -6.5 L -16.5 141.5 OVER 6.5
1/20/2022 at Colorado W, 61-58 -2 W 1 137 UNDER -18
1/22/2022 at Utah W, 79-67 -6 W 6 138.5 OVER 7.5
1/24/2022 Arizona State W, 78-56 -13 W 9 134 UNDER 0
1/27/2022 Stanford L, 61-64 -11 L -14 140 UNDER -15
1/29/2022 California W, 79-72 -12 L -5 129 OVER 22
2/3/2022 at Arizona State W, 58-53 -6 L -1 132 UNDER -21
2/5/2022 at Arizona L, 63-72 11 W 2 150 UNDER -15
2/8/2022 Pacific W, 74-68 -20 L -14 135 OVER 7
2/12/2022 UCLA W, 67-64 2 W 5 137 UNDER -6
2/17/2022 Washington W, 79-69 -10.5 L -0.5 139.5 OVER 8.5
2/20/2022 Washington State W, 62-60 -5.5 L -3.5 132.5 UNDER -10.5
2/24/2022 at Oregon State W, 94-91 -11 L -8 140 OVER 45
2/26/2022 at Oregon W, 70-69 3.5 W 4.5 138.5 OVER 0.5
3/1/2022 Arizona L, 71-91 4.5 L -15.5 150.5 OVER 11.5
3/5/2022 at UCLA L, 68-75 8 W 1 137 OVER 6
3/10/2022 vs. Washington W, 65-61 -5 L -1 141.5 UNDER -15.5
3/11/2022 vs. UCLA L, 59-69 6 L -4 134.5 UNDER -6.5

Head to Head

We don’t have any head-to-head games on file between these two teams.

Miami (FL) ATS Performance

This Season

Miami (FL) is 19-13-1 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 18 of 33 Miami (FL) games (54.5%) this season.

Miami (FL) is 3-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 4 of Miami (FL)’s 6 games on neutral floors (66.7%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/9/2021 Canisius W, 77-67 -15 L -5 149 UNDER -5
11/13/2021 UCF L, 89-95 -3 L -9 140 OVER 44
11/16/2021 at Florida Atlantic W, 68-66 -7 L -5 145 UNDER -11
11/21/2021 Florida A&M W, 86-59 -16.5 W 10.5 136.5 OVER 8.5
11/25/2021 vs. Dayton L, 60-76 -5.5 L -21.5 136.5 UNDER -0.5
11/26/2021 vs. North Texas W, 69-63 -1 W 5 129.5 OVER 2.5
11/28/2021 vs. Alabama L, 64-96 10.5 L -21.5 153 OVER 7
12/1/2021 at Penn State W, 63-58 4.5 W 9.5 137.5 UNDER -16.5
12/4/2021 Clemson W, 80-75 -2.5 W 2.5 134.5 OVER 20.5
12/8/2021 Lipscomb W, 76-59 -13.5 W 3.5 151.5 UNDER -16.5
12/12/2021 vs. Fordham W, 72-66 7.5 W 13.5 139 UNDER -1
12/20/2021 Stetson W, 82-72 -14.5 L -4.5 137 OVER 17
12/29/2021 NC State W, 91-83 -4 W 4 146 OVER 28
1/1/2022 Wake Forest W, 92-84 -1.5 W 6.5 150.5 OVER 25.5
1/5/2022 Syracuse W, 88-87 -2 L -1 156.5 OVER 18.5
1/8/2022 at Duke W, 76-74 15 W 17 153 UNDER -3
1/11/2022 at Florida State L, 64-65 6 W 5 151 UNDER -22
1/18/2022 North Carolina W, 85-57 2.5 W 30.5 158 UNDER -16
1/22/2022 Florida State L, 60-61 -3 L -4 146.5 UNDER -25.5
1/26/2022 at Virginia Tech W, 78-75 6 W 9 138 OVER 15
1/29/2022 at Georgia Tech W, 73-62 -2.5 W 8.5 145 UNDER -10
2/2/2022 Notre Dame L, 64-68 -5 L -9 144 UNDER -12
2/5/2022 at Virginia L, 58-71 4 L -9 128 OVER 1
2/9/2022 Georgia Tech W, 79-70 -9 P 0 140.5 OVER 8.5
2/12/2022 at Wake Forest W, 76-72 7.5 W 11.5 150.5 UNDER -2.5
2/16/2022 at Louisville W, 70-63 -1.5 W 5.5 141 UNDER -8
2/19/2022 Virginia L, 71-74 -2 L -5 129.5 OVER 15.5
2/22/2022 at Pittsburgh W, 85-64 -4 W 17 136.5 OVER 12.5
2/26/2022 Virginia Tech L, 70-71 -1.5 L -2.5 140 OVER 1
3/2/2022 at Boston College W, 81-70 -5 W 6 141.5 OVER 9.5
3/5/2022 at Syracuse W, 75-72 1.5 W 4.5 153.5 UNDER -6.5
3/10/2022 vs. Boston College W, 71-69 -7.5 L -5.5 138.5 OVER 1.5
3/11/2022 vs. Duke L, 76-80 9 W 5 148.5 OVER 7.5

Head to Head

We don’t have any head-to-head games on file between these two teams.

Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Isaiah White (03/14): White was held out of Monday's practice due to a wrist injury, Adam Grosbard of The Orange County Register reports.
  • Reese Dixon-Waters (03/14): Waters didn't practice Monday due to a groin injury, Adam Grosbard of The Orange County Register reports.
  • Charlie Moore (03/12): Moore had 15 points (6-12 FG, 3-6 3Pt), one rebound, eight assists and one steal over 39 minutes during Friday's 80-76 loss to Duke.
  • Jordan Miller (03/12): Miller produced 17 points (8-15 FG, 1-2 FT), 13 rebounds, one assist and three steals over 37 minutes during Friday's 80-76 loss to Duke.
  • Isaiah Mobley (03/12): Mobley ended Friday's 69-59 loss to UCLA with nine points (4-11 FG, 0-4 3Pt, 1-2 FT), seven rebounds, one assist and one steal in 38 minutes.
  • Isaiah White (03/12): White (wrist) finished with zero points (0-2 FG) and three rebounds across two minutes during Friday's 69-59 loss to UCLA.
  • Reese Dixon-Waters (03/12): Waters did not suit up for Friday's 69-59 loss to UCLA for an undisclosed reason, Adam Grosbard of The Orange County Register reports.
  • Kameron McGusty (03/11): McGusty accumulated 16 points (6-12 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 2-4 FT), three rebounds, one assist and two steals across 43 minutes during Thursday's 71-69 OT win over Boston College.
  • Boogie Ellis (03/11): Ellis finished Thursday's 65-61 victory over Washington with 17 points (6-10 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 2-3 FT), four rebounds, one assist and one block over 29 minutes.
  • Chevez Goodwin (03/07): Goodwin closed with five points (2-4 FG, 1-2 FT), two rebounds and two assists over 24 minutes during Saturday's 75-68 loss to UCLA.
  • Jordan Miller (03/07): Miller had 25 points (10-13 FG, 5-5 FT), 13 rebounds, one assist, one block and two steals over 34 minutes during Saturday's 75-72 victory over Syracuse.
  • Max Agbonkpolo (03/05): Agbonkpolo is in the starting lineup for Saturday's game against UCLA.
  • Isaiah White (03/05): White (wrist) will not play in the game against UCLA on Saturday, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Isaiah White (03/04): White (wrist) is a game-time decision for Saturday's game against UCLA, Ryan Kartje of the Los Angeles Times reports.
  • Isaiah Wong (03/03): Wong racked up 27 points (9-16 FG, 5-9 3Pt, 4-4 FT), seven rebounds, one assist and two steals in 34 minutes during Wednesday's 81-70 win over Boston College.
  • Isaiah Mobley (03/02): Mobley totaled nine points (3-12 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 2-2 FT), 11 rebounds, one assist, one block and one steal in 34 minutes during Tuesday's 91-71 loss to Arizona.
  • Ethan Anderson (03/01): Daily Trojan SportsAnderson is listed in the Trojans starting lineup for Tuesday's contest with Arizona, Daily Trojan Sports reports.
  • Max Agbonkpolo (03/01): Agbonkpolo is not starting Tuesday's game against Arizona, the Daily Trojan Sports reports.
  • Isaiah White (03/01): White (wrist) is officially ruled out for Tuesday's game against Arizona, Marc Kulkin reports.
  • Isaiah White (02/28): White missed his second consecutive game Saturday against Oregon due to a right wrist strain.
  • Drew Peterson (02/27): Peterson ended with 20 points (9-17 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 0-1 FT), eight rebounds and two assists across 36 minutes during Saturday's 70-69 victory over Oregon.
  • Boogie Ellis (02/27): Ellis (lower body) scored eight points (3-10 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 0-1 FT) while adding one assist and one steal across 24 minutes in Saturday's win over Oregon.
  • Jordan Miller (02/26): Miller has been dropped to a bench role for Saturday's Senior Day clash versus Virginia Tech.
  • Isaiah Wong (02/26): Wong will come off the bench on Saturday as Miami rolls out a special lineup for Senior day against Virginia Tech.
  • Max Agbonkpolo (02/25): Agbonkpolo totaled 16 points (6-12 FG, 1-5 3Pt, 3-4 FT), six rebounds, two blocks and one steal across 41 minutes during Thursday's 94-91 2OT win over Oregon State.