Preview: LSU vs. Michigan

Game LSU Tigers vs. Michigan Wolverines
Date: March 22nd, 2021 7:10 PM
TV: CBS
Spread: MICH -4.5 Open -5
Total: 147.5 Open: 148.5

Preview

LSU Offense vs. Michigan Defense

The Tigers are ranked 5th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. LSU shoots 52.4 percent on twos and 34.7 percent on threes for a 52.3 effective field goal percentage.

Michigan’s defense is ranked 13th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 42.6 percent on twos and 32.4 percent on threes for a 44.5 effective field goal percentage against the Wolverines.

Basics
  • LSU is underseeded according to efficiency metrics. The 8th seeded Tigers are ranked 22nd nationally per Bart Torvik. Their computer numbers suggest they should be closer to a 5 or 6 seed.
  • The Tigers are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 77.59 inches according to KenPom.com. Michigan should match up well against the Tigers’ size, with an average height of 77.93 inches.
  • The Tigers have a size advantage on the perimeter as their guards rank in the 89th percentile size wise compared to Michigan’s guards which rank in the 28th percentile.
  • LSU plays as fast as any team in the country. The Tigers average 73 possessions per game.
  • LSU makes 75 percent of its free throws which should come in handy in a close game.
Extra Possessions
  • LSU does a great job of valuing the basketball, turnovers on just 15.6 percent of possessions, and Michigan’s defense doesn’t prioritize forcing giveaways. The Wolverines only force giveaways on 14.8 percent of opponent possessions, so expect a low turnover performance by LSU’s offense.
Shot Profile
  • Michigan does a great job running its opponents off the 3-point line. MICH opponents attempt 32 percent of their shots from 3-point range and are shooting 33 percent from 3-point range while LSU is shooting 35 percent from outside and attempts 37 percent of its shots from long distance.
  • Michigan does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, MICH contests 62 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, LSU’s offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 51 percent of the Tigers’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • LSU is a tough scout because its bigs can stretch the floor. The Tigers have one big with at least 75 3-point attempts including Darius Days.
  • Michigan’s defense excels around the bucket, allowing 50 percent shooting within five-feet of the rim. LSU is generally a great finishing team, making 60 percent of its shots at the bucket — setting up a key battle inside.
  • Michigan’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Wolverines opponents attempt 30 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 33 percent clip. LSU’s offense shoots 40 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • LSU loves to push the ball in transition. An impressive 20.5 percent of LSU’s offensive plays are in transition and those transition plays create 17.0 points per game. Michigan’s defense does a great job of limiting transition opportunities and only allows 9.3 points per game in transition.
  • Michigan’s defense excels at preventing assisted field goals and forcing one-on-one play with a style of “no help” defense popularized by Luke Yaklich. The Wolverines only allow their opponents to record assists on 41.5 percent of made baskets.
  • LSU runs a lot of isolation actions. The Tigers score 10.8 points per game out of isolation at 0.86 points per play. Michigan’s defense is fairly average defending isolations. Opponents score 0.74 points per isolation action (including pass-outs) against the Wolverines.

Michigan Offense vs. LSU Defense

Michigan checks in at 8th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Wolverines shoot 53.9 percent on twos and 38.3 percent on threes for a 55.1 effective field goal percentage.

LSU is ranked 117th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, LSU opponents make 51.3 percent of their twos and 30 percent of their threes for a 48.5 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
  • Michigan’s offense has been struggling over the last month. The Wolverines are ranked 30th in adjusted offensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 8th for the season.
  • LSU’s defense has been playing very well over the last month. The Tigers are ranked 84th in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 117th for the season.
  • Michigan is one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, averaging 2.14 years of experience weighted by minutes played, per KenPom.com.
  • LSU plays zone defense on 13.9 percent of their defensive plays, per Synergy, and allow 0.91 points per play when they go with the zone look. Michigan averages 0.94 points per play against zone defenses, making this a fairly neutral matchup.
  • Michigan does a great job attacking full-court pressure defenses, scoring 0.96 points per play. LSU’s applies full court pressure on 10.8 percent of possessions which should allow the Wolverines to create an offensive advantage.
  • You can trust Michigan at the line in a close game. The Wolverines shoot 77 percent at the line for the season.
Extra Possessions
  • Second chance points are crucial to Michigan’s offense. The Wolverines score 11.0 points off of second chances and only allow 8.4 points per game, outscoring teams by 2.6 points per game just on second chance opportunities.
Shot Profile
  • LSU allows opponents to attempt 44 percent of their shots from 3-point range. The Tigers have gotten a bit lucky so far this season as opponents only make 30 percent of their threes. On the year, Michigan is shooting 38 from outside and attempts 34 percent of its shots from long distance.
  • Michigan dominates the paint. The Wolverines score 34.9 points and allow 27.6 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 7.3 points per game.
  • Michigan is difficult to guard because it has 4 players on the roster shooting at least 38 percent from 3-point range on over 50 perimeter attempts.
  • Michigan is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Wolverines shoot 63 percent at the rim and LSU allows 59 percent shooting inside of five feet.
Style
  • Michigan is one of the better passing teams in the country and 57.4 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season.
  • Michigan is reliant on ball screen screen offense. The Wolverines score 26.6 points per game out of ball screen actions at 0.94 points per play. LSU’s defense excels at defending ball screens, allowing just 0.75 points per play which should set up a key strength-on-strength matchup.
  • Michigan relies on post-up offense to score. The Wolverines average 13.6 points per game out of post-up actions. LSU’s defense does a terrific job of guarding post-up scorers. On the year, the Tigers allow just 0.8 points per post-up play.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik projects a 79-74 Michigan win over LSU and gives the Wolverines a 70 percent chance at picking up the victory.

LSU Personnel

#24 Cameron Thomas

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 210 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Off Screen Shooter Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Mega Usage Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
23 3.4 1.4 114.0 29.3% 47.4%

#2 Trendon Watford

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 240 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Go-To Guy Gets to the Line Minutes Logger
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
16.3 7.4 2.9 105.3 24.9% 50.6%

#1 Javonte Smart

Role: Domineering Ball Handler
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 205 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Transition Scorer Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Minutes Logger Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
16 3.7 4 112.6 21.6% 56%

#4 Darius Days

Role: Pick and Pop Big
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 245 lbs

Stretch Big Man Pick and Pop Catch and Shoot Offensive Rebounder Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
11.6 7.8 0.6 128.3 17.6% 62.9%

#15 Aundre Hyatt

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 225 lbs

Low Usage Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
4.2 3.1 0.5 118.8 13.0% 50.6%

MICH Personnel

#1 Hunter Dickinson

Role: Post Up Big
Height: 7'1" | Weight: 255 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Finisher Roll Man Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Defensive Rebounder Go-To Guy Gets to the Line Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
14.2 7.6 0.9 112.8 26.6% 60.2%

#21 Franz Wagner

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 220 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.8 6.5 3 122.0 19.3% 56.2%

#2 Isaiah Livers

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 230 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
13.1 6 2 122.7 18.9% 57%
❄️❄️❄️: Livers is averaging 8.2 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 4.9 points below his season average.

#12 Mike Smith

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 5'11" | Weight: 185 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Turnover Prone Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.3 2.7 5.4 110.0 19.1% 50%

#55 Eli Brooks

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 185 lbs

Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.5 3.1 3.1 118.4 16.1% 52.2%
🔥🔥🔥: Brooks is averaging 13.2 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 3.7 points above his season average.

ATS

Michigan ATS Performance

This Season

Michigan is 18-8-1 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 12 of 27 Michigan games (44.4%) this season.

Michigan is 3-2-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 3 of Michigan’s 5 games on neutral floors (60%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 Bowling Green W, 96-82 -14 P 0 149 OVER 29
11/29/2020 Oakland W, 81-71 -31 L -21 145.5 OVER 6.5
12/2/2020 Ball State W, 84-65 -15.5 W 3.5 142 OVER 7
12/6/2020 UCF W, 80-58 -11.5 W 10.5 141.5 UNDER -3.5
12/9/2020 Toledo W, 91-71 -13.5 W 6.5 145.5 OVER 16.5
12/13/2020 Penn State W, 62-58 -7 L -3 152 UNDER -32
12/25/2020 at Nebraska W, 80-69 -8 W 3 148.5 OVER 0.5
12/31/2020 at Maryland W, 84-73 -2 W 9 142.5 OVER 14.5
1/3/2021 Northwestern W, 85-66 -9 W 10 144.5 OVER 6.5
1/6/2021 Minnesota W, 82-57 -7.5 W 17.5 152 UNDER -13
1/12/2021 Wisconsin W, 77-54 -3.5 W 19.5 134 UNDER -3
1/16/2021 at Minnesota L, 57-75 -6 L -24 147.5 UNDER -15.5
1/19/2021 Maryland W, 87-63 -10 W 14 140.5 OVER 9.5
1/22/2021 at Purdue W, 70-53 -3.5 W 13.5 138 UNDER -15
2/14/2021 at Wisconsin W, 67-59 0 W 8 133.5 UNDER -7.5
2/18/2021 Rutgers W, 71-64 -10 L -3 136.5 UNDER -1.5
2/21/2021 at Ohio State W, 92-87 -1.5 W 3.5 144.5 OVER 34.5
2/25/2021 Iowa W, 79-57 -5 W 17 155.5 UNDER -19.5
2/27/2021 at Indiana W, 73-57 -8 W 8 138.5 UNDER -8.5
3/2/2021 Illinois L, 53-76 -8 L -31 146.5 UNDER -17.5
3/4/2021 Michigan State W, 69-50 -12 W 7 140 UNDER -21
3/7/2021 at Michigan State L, 64-70 -8 L -14 138 UNDER -4
3/12/2021 vs. Maryland W, 79-66 -8 W 5 133.5 OVER 11.5
3/13/2021 vs. Ohio State L, 67-68 -6.5 L -7.5 144.5 UNDER -9.5
3/20/2021 vs. Texas Southern W, 82-66 -26 L -10 142 OVER 6
3/22/2021 vs. LSU W, 86-78 -5 W 3 149 OVER 15
3/28/2021 vs. Florida State W, 76-58 -2 W 16 143 UNDER -9

Head to Head

Michigan is 1-1-0 against the spread when it plays against LSU in recorded games since 2017. The over has hit in 2 out of 2 recorded head-to-head games (100%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/20/2017 vs. LSU L, 75-77 -6 L -8 148 OVER 4
3/22/2021 vs. LSU W, 86-78 -5 W 3 149 OVER 15

LSU ATS Performance

This Season

LSU is 15-14-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 17 of 29 LSU games (58.6%) this season.

LSU is 4-2-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 4 of LSU’s 6 games on neutral floors (66.7%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/26/2020 vs. SIU-Edwardsville W, 94-81 -29.5 L -16.5 154 OVER 21
11/28/2020 at Saint Louis L, 81-85 3.5 L -0.5 146.5 OVER 19.5
11/30/2020 SE Louisiana W, 96-43 -26.5 W 26.5 156 UNDER -17
12/6/2020 Louisiana Tech W, 86-55 -10 W 21 152.5 UNDER -11.5
12/14/2020 Sam Houston State W, 88-66 -25.5 L -3.5 154.5 UNDER -0.5
12/26/2020 Nicholls W, 86-80 -22 L -16 150 OVER 16
12/29/2020 Texas A&M W, 77-54 -7.5 W 15.5 142.5 UNDER -11.5
1/2/2021 at Florida L, 79-83 1 L -3 152.5 OVER 9.5
1/6/2021 Georgia W, 94-92 -9.5 L -7.5 156.5 OVER 29.5
1/9/2021 at Ole Miss W, 75-61 1.5 W 15.5 149 UNDER -13
1/13/2021 Arkansas W, 92-76 -2.5 W 13.5 156.5 OVER 11.5
1/16/2021 South Carolina W, 85-80 -8.5 L -3.5 154.5 OVER 10.5
1/19/2021 Alabama L, 75-105 -1 L -31 163.5 OVER 16.5
1/23/2021 at Kentucky L, 69-82 1.5 L -11.5 147 OVER 4
1/26/2021 at Texas A&M W, 78-66 -5 W 7 141 OVER 3
1/30/2021 Texas Tech L, 71-76 3.5 L -1.5 150.5 UNDER -3.5
2/3/2021 at Alabama L, 60-78 8.5 L -9.5 164 UNDER -26
2/10/2021 at Mississippi State W, 94-80 1.5 W 15.5 145.5 OVER 28.5
2/13/2021 Tennessee W, 78-65 3 W 16 145.5 UNDER -2.5
2/20/2021 Auburn W, 104-80 -4.5 W 19.5 166 OVER 18
2/23/2021 at Georgia L, 78-91 -4.5 L -17.5 166.5 OVER 2.5
2/27/2021 at Arkansas L, 75-83 5.5 L -2.5 162.5 UNDER -4.5
3/2/2021 Vanderbilt W, 83-68 -11.5 W 3.5 159.5 UNDER -8.5
3/6/2021 at Missouri W, 86-80 3.5 W 9.5 156.5 OVER 9.5
3/12/2021 vs. Ole Miss W, 76-73 -1.5 W 1.5 144 OVER 5
3/13/2021 vs. Arkansas W, 78-71 3.5 W 10.5 162.5 UNDER -13.5
3/14/2021 vs. Alabama L, 79-80 6.5 W 5.5 157.5 OVER 1.5
3/20/2021 vs. St. Bonaventure W, 76-61 -1.5 W 13.5 144.5 UNDER -7.5
3/22/2021 vs. Michigan L, 78-86 5 L -3 149 OVER 15

Head to Head

LSU is 1-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Michigan in recorded games since 2017. The over has hit in 2 out of 2 recorded head-to-head games (100%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/20/2017 vs. Michigan W, 77-75 6 W 8 148 OVER 4
3/22/2021 vs. Michigan L, 78-86 5 L -3 149 OVER 15
Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Isaiah Livers (03/28): Livers (foot) will miss the remainder of the NCAA Tournament, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Javonte Smart (03/23): Smart added 27 points (10-23 FG, 2-10 3Pt, 5-5 FT), nine rebounds, six assists and one steal during Monday's NCAA Tournament loss to Michigan.
  • Cameron Thomas (03/23): Thomas posted 30 points (10-23 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 7-7 FT), three rebounds, one steal and one block during Monday's NCAA Tournament loss to Michigan.
  • Hunter Dickinson (03/23): Dickinson compiled 12 points (4-7 FG, 4-5 FT), 11 rebounds, three assists and one block over 31 minutes in Monday's 86-78 win over LSU.
  • Eli Brooks (03/23): Brooks tallied 21 points (7-11 FG, 5-9 3Pt, 2-2 FT), seven assists and four rebounds over 32 minutes in Monday's 86-78 win over LSU.
  • Mike Smith (03/21): Smith posted 18 points (6-12 FG, 2-6 3Pt, 4-4 FT), five assists, four rebounds and one steal over 37 minutes in Saturday's 82-66 win over Texas Southern.
  • Isaiah Livers (03/20): Per the CBS broadcast, Livers (foot) is looking at a 6-to-8 week timetable to return, Ethan Sears of The Michigan Daily reports.
  • Cameron Thomas (03/15): Thomas tallied 18 points (6-18 FG, 4-10 3Pt, 2-2 FT), three rebounds, three steals, two assists and one block during Sunday's SEC Tournament Championship loss to Alabama.
  • Javonte Smart (03/15): Smart registered 21 points (7-17 FG, 5-11 3Pt, 2-2 FT), seven rebounds, five assists and one block during Sunday's SEC Tournament Championship loss to Alabama.
  • Trendon Watford (03/15): Watford tallied 30 points (13-23 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 3-7 FT), eight rebounds, two assists and two steals during Sunday's SEC Tournament Championship loss to Alabama.
  • Hunter Dickinson (03/14): Dickinson recorded 21 points (9-14 FG, 3-3 FT), eight rebounds, one steal and one block over 30 minutes in Saturday's 68-67 loss to Ohio State.
  • Brandon Johns (03/13): Johns is in the starting lineup for Saturday's game against Ohio State.
  • Isaiah Livers (03/13): Livers is out indefinitely due to a foot injury, according to Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports.
  • Franz Wagner (03/13): Wagner compiled 16 points (7-12 FG, 2-5 3Pt), four rebounds, two assists and one steal over 39 minutes in Friday's 79-66 win over Maryland.
  • Mike Smith (03/12): Smith opened the Big Ten Tournament versus Maryland on Friday with a season-best 18 points (6-14 FG, 2-2 3PT, 4-4 FT), a season-best 15 assists, five boards and two steals.
  • Eli Brooks (03/12): Brooks (ankle) will start Friday's Big Ten Tournament opener versus Maryland.
  • Hunter Dickinson (03/09): Dickinson was named the 2020-21 Big Ten Freshman of the Year on Tuesday.
  • Eli Brooks (03/07): Brooks will not return to Sunday's game against Michigan State after suffering an ankle injury earlier in the first half, Brendan F. Quinn of The Athletic reports.
  • Franz Wagner (03/05): Wagner posted 19 points (6-12 FG, 4-6 3Pt, 3-4 FT), six rebounds and one steal over 35 minutes in Thursday's 69-50 win over Michigan State.
  • Isaiah Livers (03/05): Livers tallied nine points (3-7 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 2-3 FT), seven rebounds, two steals and one assist over 35 minutes in Thursday's 69-50 win over Michigan State.
  • Isaiah Livers (03/04): Livers (ankle) will start Thursday's game against Michigan State.
  • Isaiah Livers (03/03): Livers suffered an ankle injury in the second half of Tuesday's loss to Illinois, and while he was able to play through it at the time, the senior still intends to have it evaluated, Austin Fox of Rivals reports.
  • Eli Brooks (03/03): Brooks totaled 11 points (3-8 FG, 0-1 3Pt, 5-5 FT), two assists, two steals and one rebound over 31 minutes in Tuesday's 76-53 loss to Illinois.
  • Javonte Smart (03/01): Smart dropped 15 points (6-14 FG, 3-3 3Pt, 0-1 FT), five rebounds and four assists during Saturday's loss to Arkansas.
  • Cameron Thomas (03/01): Thomas had 25 points (11-19 FG, 1-5 3Pt, 2-4 FT), seven rebounds, one assist and one block during Saturday's loss to Arkansas.