Preview: Loyola (IL) vs. Illinois

Game Loyola (IL) Ramblers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Date: March 21st, 2021 12:10 PM
TV: CBS
Spread: ILL -7
Total: 133 Open: 133.5

Preview

Loyola (IL) Offense vs. Illinois Defense

The Ramblers are ranked 50th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Loyola (IL) shoots 57.2 percent on twos and 35.4 percent on threes for a 55.7 effective field goal percentage.

Illinois defense is ranked 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 45.1 percent on twos and 32.9 percent on threes for a 46.5 effective field goal percentage against the Fighting Illini.

Basics
  • Loyola (IL) is underseeded according to efficiency metrics. The 8th seeded Ramblers are ranked 12th nationally per Bart Torvik. Their computer numbers suggest they should be closer to a 3 or 4 seed.
  • Loyola (IL) is one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, averaging 2.27 years of experience weighted by minutes played, per KenPom.com.
  • The Ramblers’ rotation only has an average height of 76.18 inches according to KenPom.com, making them one of the shortest teams in the field.
  • Loyola (IL) plays at a deliberate pace. The Ramblers average 64 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball. Illinois prefers to play fast and averages 72 possessions per game meaning this should be a game of contrasting tempo.
  • Loyola (IL) makes 73 percent of its free throws which should come in handy in a close game.
Extra Possessions
  • The game should be fairly turnover neutral on this side of the ball. Loyola (IL) turns it over on 18.2 percent of possessions and Illinois forces giveaways on 16.1 percent of possessions.
Shot Profile
  • Loyola (IL) dominates the paint. The Ramblers score 34.5 points and allow 23.9 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 10.6 points per game. Illinois has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 11.2 points per game in the paint.
  • Illinois defense excels around the bucket, allowing 51 percent shooting within five-feet of the rim. Loyola (IL) is generally a great finishing team, making 64 percent of its shots at the bucket — setting up a key battle inside.
  • Illinois defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Fighting Illini opponents attempt 31 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 38 percent clip. Loyola (IL)’s offense shoots 38 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Loyola (IL) is one of the better passing teams in the country and 60.8 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season. On the other side, Illinois defense excels at preventing assisted field goals and forcing one-on-one play. The Fighting Illini only allow their opponents to record assists on 45.1 percent of made baskets.
  • Loyola (IL) runs a lot of off-ball actions. The Ramblers score 8.0 points per game out of off-ball screens and cuts at 1.13 points per play. Illinois defense is fairly average defending off the ball. Opponents score 0.96 points per play against the Fighting Illini.

Illinois Offense vs. Loyola (IL) Defense

Illinois checks in at 9th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Fighting Illini shoot 55.4 percent on twos and 37.2 percent on threes for a 55.6 effective field goal percentage.

Loyola (IL) is ranked 2nd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Loyola (IL) opponents make 46.3 percent of their twos and 32.5 percent of their threes for a 47.2 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
  • Illinois plays as fast as any team in the country. The Fighting Illini average 72 possessions per game. On the other side, Loyola (IL) prefers to control the game and does a good job of that. Ramblers games only average 64 possessions per game
Extra Possessions
  • Loyola (IL) is one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers. L-IL forces giveaways on 21.4 percent of offensive possessions while Illinois turns it over on 18.1 percent of its possessions this season.
  • The Fighting Illini are fantastic on the offensive glass and rebound 32.2 percent of their missed shots. Loyola (IL) is one of the better defensive rebounding teams in the field, grabbing 79 percent of opponent misses, which should negate this advantage.
  • Second chance points are crucial to Illinois offense. The Fighting Illini score 11.9 points off of second chances and only allow 8.8 points per game, outscoring teams by 3.1 points per game just on second chance opportunities.
Shot Profile
  • Illinois’s offensive attack is interior-focused. The Fighting Illini only attempt 30 percent of their shots from 3-point range. Despite not being a high volume 3-point shooting team, Illinois shoots an impressive 38 percent from outside the arc.
  • Loyola (IL) does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, L-IL contests 58 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Illinois excels at creating open jumpers. Only 39 percent of the Fighting Illini’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • Illinois dominates the paint. The Fighting Illini score 39.1 points and allow 27.9 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 11.2 points per game. Loyola (IL) has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 10.6 points per game in the paint.
  • Loyola (IL) is one of the best teams in the country at defending around the basket. Ramblers opponents are shooting just 52 percent at the rim. Illinois is usually very good at creating quality looks around the basket — finishing 63 percent of its shots withing five-feet — which sets up an interesting battle inside.
  • Loyola (IL)’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Ramblers opponents attempt 30 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 38 percent clip. Illinois offense shoots 38 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Loyola (IL)’s defense is unique for its ability to prevent assists. Only 46 percent of made baskets are assisted against the Ramblers.
  • Illinois is reliant on ball screen screen offense. The Fighting Illini score 28.8 points per game out of ball screen actions at 0.95 points per play. Loyola (IL)’s defense is fairly average containing ball screen looks. Opponents score 0.83 points per ball screen action (including pass-outs) against the Ramblers.
  • Illinois relies on post-up offense to score. The Fighting Illini average 11.8 points per game out of post-up actions. Loyola (IL) is fairly average defending the post, allowing 0.82 points per play.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik lists Illinois as a 67-64 favorite, giving the Fighting Illini a 63 percent chance of advancing.

L-IL Personnel

#25 Cameron Krutwig

Role: Post Up Big
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 255 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Distributor Finisher Roll Man Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Defensive Rebounder Mega Usage Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
15 7 3 114.4 29.4% 57.4%

#1 Lucas Williamson

Role: Runaround Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 205 lbs

Pick Pocket
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.8 3.9 2.1 111.1 17.6% 54.2%
🔥🔥🔥: Williamson is averaging 13 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 4.2 points above his season average.

#4 Braden Norris

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'0" | Weight: 180 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Poor Finisher Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.5 2.9 3.2 112.0 15.8% 58.1%
🔥🔥🔥: Norris is averaging 12.8 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 4.3 points above his season average.

#5 Keith Clemons

Role: Runaround Wing
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 180 lbs

Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
7.5 1.5 1.5 113.6 16.1% 57.5%
🔥🔥🔥: Clemons is averaging 10.4 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 2.9 points above his season average.

#30 Aher Uguak

Role: Reluctant Shooter
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 225 lbs

Finisher Smart Shot Selection Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
7.3 3.9 1.2 120.5 14.9% 65.8%

ILL Personnel

#11 Ayo Dosunmu

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 200 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Mega Usage Minutes Logger Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
20.1 6.3 5.2 110.7 29.6% 52.6%

#21 Kofi Cockburn

Role: Post Up Big
Height: 7'0" | Weight: 285 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Finisher Roll Man Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Defensive Rebounder Go-To Guy Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
17.7 9.5 0.2 117.5 27.4% 65.4%

#1 Trent Frazier

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 175 lbs

Glue Guy Transition Scorer Corner 3-Point Specialist Catch and Shoot Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10.2 2.7 2.7 111.3 15.0% 51.2%

#5 Andre Curbelo

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 175 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Turnover Prone Pick Pocket Go-To Guy
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.1 4 4.2 101.6 26.5% 50.9%

#44 Adam Miller

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 180 lbs

Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.3 2.8 0.8 101.3 15.7% 50.4%

ATS

Illinois ATS Performance

This Season

Illinois is 19-12-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 17 of 31 Illinois games (54.8%) this season.

Illinois is 3-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 3 of Illinois 6 games on neutral floors (50%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 North Carolina A&T W, 122-60 -27.5 W 34.5 145.5 OVER 36.5
11/26/2020 Chicago State W, 97-38 -42.5 W 16.5 154.5 UNDER -19.5
11/27/2020 Ohio W, 77-75 -18 L -16 146.5 OVER 5.5
12/2/2020 vs. Baylor L, 69-82 5.5 L -7.5 144.5 OVER 6.5
12/8/2020 at Duke W, 83-68 4 W 19 147 OVER 4
12/12/2020 at Missouri L, 78-81 -3 L -6 140 OVER 19
12/15/2020 Minnesota W, 92-65 -8.5 W 18.5 149.5 OVER 7.5
12/20/2020 at Rutgers L, 88-91 -3 L -6 143.5 OVER 35.5
12/23/2020 at Penn State W, 98-81 -3.5 W 13.5 149.5 OVER 29.5
12/26/2020 Indiana W, 69-60 -6 W 3 145.5 UNDER -16.5
1/2/2021 Purdue W, 66-58 -8.5 L -0.5 148.5 UNDER -24.5
1/7/2021 at Northwestern W, 81-56 -6.5 W 18.5 149.5 UNDER -12.5
1/10/2021 Maryland L, 63-66 -10 L -13 146.5 UNDER -17.5
1/16/2021 Ohio State L, 81-87 -6.5 L -12.5 146 OVER 22
1/19/2021 Penn State W, 79-65 -8.5 W 5.5 152 UNDER -8
1/29/2021 Iowa W, 80-75 -3 W 2 162 UNDER -7
2/2/2021 at Indiana W, 75-71 -2 W 2 142.5 OVER 3.5
2/6/2021 Wisconsin W, 75-60 -4 W 11 136.5 UNDER -1.5
2/12/2021 at Nebraska W, 77-72 -14.5 L -9.5 148.5 OVER 0.5
2/16/2021 Northwestern W, 73-66 -12.5 L -5.5 143.5 UNDER -4.5
2/20/2021 at Minnesota W, 94-63 -4 W 27 145.5 OVER 11.5
2/23/2021 at Michigan State L, 72-81 -7 L -16 142.5 OVER 10.5
2/25/2021 Nebraska W, 86-70 -14.5 W 1.5 145 OVER 11
2/27/2021 at Wisconsin W, 74-69 4.5 W 9.5 135.5 OVER 7.5
3/2/2021 at Michigan W, 76-53 8 W 31 146.5 UNDER -17.5
3/6/2021 at Ohio State W, 73-68 2.5 W 7.5 150.5 UNDER -9.5
3/12/2021 vs. Rutgers W, 90-68 -7.5 W 14.5 137.5 OVER 20.5
3/13/2021 vs. Iowa W, 82-71 -3.5 W 7.5 155.5 UNDER -2.5
3/14/2021 vs. Ohio State W, 91-88 -6 L -3 148 OVER 31
3/19/2021 vs. Drexel W, 78-49 -22.5 W 6.5 143.5 UNDER -16.5
3/21/2021 vs. Loyola (Chi) L, 58-71 -7.5 L -20.5 133.5 UNDER -4.5

Head to Head

Illinois is 0-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Loyola (IL) in recorded games since 2021. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/21/2021 vs. Loyola (Chi) L, 58-71 -7.5 L -20.5 133.5 UNDER -4.5

Loyola (IL) ATS Performance

This Season

Loyola (IL) is 18-11-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 13 of 29 Loyola (IL) games (44.8%) this season.

Loyola (IL) is 5-2-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 4 of Loyola (IL)’s 7 games on neutral floors (57.1%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
12/9/2020 Chicago State W, 88-51 -34.5 W 2.5 138.5 OVER 0.5
12/13/2020 at UIC W, 77-66 -9 W 2 131 OVER 12
12/15/2020 at Wisconsin L, 63-77 9.5 L -4.5 132.5 OVER 7.5
12/18/2020 vs. Richmond L, 73-75 -2.5 L -4.5 142.5 OVER 5.5
12/27/2020 Illinois State W, 90-60 -15.5 W 14.5 138.5 OVER 11.5
12/28/2020 Illinois State W, 86-55 -15.5 W 15.5 138.5 OVER 2.5
1/2/2021 North Texas W, 57-49 -7.5 W 0.5 133 UNDER -27
1/10/2021 at Indiana State L, 71-76 -7.5 L -12.5 137.5 OVER 9.5
1/11/2021 at Indiana State W, 58-48 -7.5 W 2.5 137.5 UNDER -31.5
1/16/2021 Northern Iowa W, 72-57 -10.5 W 4.5 139 UNDER -10
1/17/2021 Northern Iowa W, 88-46 -10.5 W 31.5 139.5 UNDER -5.5
1/20/2021 at Valparaiso W, 75-39 -12.5 W 23.5 132 UNDER -18
1/24/2021 at Bradley W, 69-56 -7.5 W 5.5 130 UNDER -5
1/25/2021 at Bradley W, 65-58 -7.5 L -0.5 128.5 UNDER -5.5
1/31/2021 at Missouri State W, 72-46 -6.5 W 19.5 136.5 UNDER -18.5
2/1/2021 at Missouri State W, 70-50 -5.5 W 14.5 137.5 UNDER -17.5
2/6/2021 Evansville W, 68-55 -19.5 L -6.5 120.5 OVER 2.5
2/7/2021 Evansville W, 69-58 -19.5 L -8.5 121.5 OVER 5.5
2/13/2021 at Drake W, 81-54 -3.5 W 23.5 132.5 OVER 2.5
2/14/2021 at Drake L, 50-51 -4.5 L -5.5 133 UNDER -32
2/17/2021 Valparaiso W, 54-52 -20.5 L -18.5 127 UNDER -21
2/26/2021 Southern Illinois W, 60-52 -19 L -11 125 UNDER -13
2/27/2021 Southern Illinois W, 65-58 -19 L -12 124.5 UNDER -1.5
3/5/2021 vs. Southern Illinois W, 73-49 -16.5 W 7.5 121.5 OVER 0.5
3/6/2021 vs. Indiana State W, 65-49 -11.5 W 4.5 121.5 UNDER -7.5
3/7/2021 vs. Drake W, 75-65 -8.5 W 1.5 125 OVER 15
3/19/2021 vs. Georgia Tech W, 71-60 -3.5 W 7.5 126 OVER 5
3/21/2021 vs. Illinois W, 71-58 7.5 W 20.5 133.5 UNDER -4.5
3/27/2021 vs. Oregon State L, 58-65 -7 L -14 125 UNDER -2

Head to Head

Loyola (IL) is 1-0-0 against the spread when it plays against Illinois in recorded games since 2021. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/21/2021 vs. Illinois W, 71-58 7.5 W 20.5 133.5 UNDER -4.5
Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Cameron Krutwig (03/28): Krutwig had 14 points (6-12 FG, 2-2 FT), 10 rebounds, four assists and a block in 35 minutes during Saturday's 65-58 loss to Oregon State.
  • Trent Frazier (03/22): Frazier tallied two points (1-10 FG, 0-5 3Pt) and four assists over 33 minutes in Sunday's 71-58 loss to Loyola-Chicago.
  • Jacob Grandison (03/22): Grandison recorded three points (1-1 FG, 1-1 3Pt) and four rebounds over 16 minutes in Sunday's 71-58 loss to Loyola-Chicago.
  • Adam Miller (03/22): Miller logged 10 points (4-6 FG, 2-4 3Pt), two rebounds, one assist and one steal over 26 minutes in Sunday's 71-58 loss to Loyola-Chicago.
  • Kofi Cockburn (03/22): Cockburn posted 21 points (7-12 FG, 7-8 FT), nine rebounds, two steals and two blocks over 32 minutes in Sunday's 71-58 loss to Loyola-Chicago.
  • Ayo Dosunmu (03/21): Head coach Brad Underwood confirmed after Sunday's 71-58 loss to Loyola-Chicago that Dosunmu has played his final game for the Illini and will be taking the next step in his career, Adam Zagoria of the New York Times reports.
  • Cameron Krutwig (03/21): Krutwig had a team-high 19 points (9-18 FG, 1-2 FT) to go along with 12 rebounds, five assists and three steals as Loyola-Chicago knocked off No. 1-seeded Illinois 71-58 on Sunday.
  • Ayo Dosunmu (03/20): Dosunmu recorded 17 points (8-14 FG, 0-1 3Pt, 1-1 FT), 11 rebounds, six assists and three steals over 33 minutes in Friday's 78-49 win over Drexel.
  • Trent Frazier (03/15): Frazier generated 10 points (4-7 FG, 2-5 3Pt), four rebounds, three assists and one block over 43 minutes in Sunday's 91-88 win over Ohio State.
  • Giorgi Bezhanishvili (03/15): Bezhanishvili compiled 12 points (3-4 FG, 6-6 FT), six rebounds, two assists and one steal over 17 minutes in Sunday's 91-88 win over Ohio State.
  • Ayo Dosunmu (03/14): Dosunmu totaled 18 points (7-16 FG, 0-1 3Pt, 4-5 FT), nine assists and seven rebounds over 39 minutes in Saturday's 82-71 win over Iowa.
  • Kofi Cockburn (03/13): Cockburn totaled 18 points (6-10 FG, 6-11 FT), 12 rebounds, two steals and one block over 27 minutes in Friday's 90-68 win over Rutgers.
  • Andre Curbelo (03/09): Curbelo was named the 2020-21 Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year on Tuesday.
  • Kofi Cockburn (03/07): Cockburn tallied 12 points (6-11 FG, 0-5 FT), six rebounds and one steal over 25 minutes in Saturday's 73-68 win over Ohio State.
  • Ayo Dosunmu (03/07): Dosunmu posted 19 points (7-10 FG, 5-6 FT), four rebounds and three assists over 36 minutes in Saturday's 73-68 win over Ohio State.
  • Da'Monte Williams (03/06): Williams will return to a bench role Saturday versus Ohio State.
  • Trent Frazier (03/03): Frazier compiled 22 points (7-18 FG, 2-5 3Pt, 6-7 FT), four rebounds, two steals and one block over 34 minutes in Tuesday's 76-53 win over Michigan.
  • Adam Miller (03/03): Miller logged six points (2-7 FG, 2-4 3Pt) and four rebounds over 32 minutes in Tuesday's 76-53 win over Michigan.
  • Ayo Dosunmu (03/02): Dosunmu didn't play in Tuesday's win over Michigan due to a concussion, Derek Piper of IlliniInquirer.com reports.
  • Ayo Dosunmu (03/01): Coach Brad Underwood said Monday that Dosunmu (nose) is "day-to-day," Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Kofi Cockburn (02/28): Cockburn logged 19 points (7-13 FG, 5-11 FT) and seven rebounds over 25 minutes in Saturday's 74-69 win over Wisconsin.
  • Cameron Krutwig (02/27): Krutwig (cramps) will play in Saturday's game against Southern Illinois, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Jacob Grandison (02/27): Grandison is starting Saturday's game against Wisconsin.
  • Andre Curbelo (02/26): Curbelo logged 10 points (4-8 FG, 0-1 3Pt, 202 FT), 10 rebounds, eight assists and one steal over 31 minutes in Thursday's 86-70 win over Nebraska.
  • Trent Frazier (02/26): Frazier posted seven points (1-9 FG, 1-7 3Pt, 4-4 FT), two rebounds, two assists and two steals over 36 minutes in Thursday's 86-70 win over Nebraska.