Preview: Indiana vs. Saint Mary’s

Game Indiana Hoosiers vs. Saint Mary's Gaels
Date: March 17th, 2022 7:30 PM
TV: TBS
Spread: SMC -2.5
Total: 124.5 Open: 126.5

Preview

Indiana Offense vs. Saint Mary's Defense

Indiana checks in at 79th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Hoosiers shoot 51.4 percent on twos and 33.9 percent on threes for a 51.3 effective field goal percentage.

Saint Mary's is ranked 10th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Saint Mary's opponents make 47 percent of their twos and 34.4 percent of their threes for a 48.3 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
  • According to KenPom, Indiana ranked 282nd nationally in luck, meaning that their adjusted efficiency margin stats indicate they should have a better record and have come up short in close games.
  • The Hoosiers are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 78.05 inches according to KenPom.com. Saint Mary's should match up well against the Hoosiers’ size, with an average height of 77.83 inches.
  • Indiana does a great job of getting to the free-throw line. The Hoosiers attempt 34 free throws per 100 field goal attempts. This should be an advantage for Saint Mary's, which only allows 24 free throws per 100 shot attempts.
Extra Possessions
  • The game should be fairly turnover neutral on this side of the ball. Indiana turns it over on 17.3 percent of possessions and Saint Mary's forces giveaways on 19.5 percent of possessions.
Shot Profile
  • Saint Mary's does a great job running its opponents off the 3-point line. SMC opponents attempt 29 percent of their shots from 3-point range and are shooting 34 percent from 3-point range while Indiana is shooting 34 percent from outside and attempts 32 percent of its shots from long distance.
  • Saint Mary's does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, SMC contests 61 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Indiana excels at creating open jumpers. Only 37 percent of the Hoosiers’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • Saint Mary's is one of the best teams in the country at defending around the basket. Gaels opponents are shooting just 53 percent at the rim. Indiana is usually very good at creating quality looks around the basket — finishing 60 percent of its shots withing five-feet — which sets up an interesting battle inside.
  • Saint Mary's defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Gaels opponents attempt 30 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 39 percent clip. Indiana’s offense shoots 36 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Indiana is a terrific passing team that records assists on 57.4 percent of its made baskets. Saint Mary's defense is designed to minimize help and prevent assisted baskets. On the season, Saint Mary's opponents log assists on 35.9 percent of makes.
  • Indiana’s offense is overweight on off-ball screens and cuts compared to the rest of the field and should test Saint Mary's defensive discipline off the ball. The Hoosiers average 9.2 points per game via cuts and off-ball screens, scoring 1.00 points per play on those actions. Saint Mary's defense excels at defending off-ball sets, allowing just 0.89 points per play.
  • Indiana relies on post-up offense to score. The Hoosiers average 16.2 points per game out of post-up actions. Saint Mary's is fairly average defending the post, allowing 0.78 points per play.

Saint Mary's Offense vs. Indiana Defense

Saint Mary's checks in at 46th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Gaels shoot 52.6 percent on twos and 35.1 percent on threes for a 52.6 effective field goal percentage.

Indiana is ranked 14th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Indiana opponents make 43.4 percent of their twos and 32.6 percent of their threes for a 45.7 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
  • Indiana’s defense has been struggling over the last month. The Hoosiers are ranked 55th in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 14th for the season.
  • Saint Mary's is one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, averaging 2.28 years of experience weighted by minutes played, per KenPom.com.
  • Saint Mary's plays at a deliberate pace. The Gaels average 66 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball.
  • You can trust Saint Mary's at the line in a close game. The Gaels shoot 77 percent at the line for the season.
Extra Possessions
Shot Profile
  • Indiana allows opponents to attempt 40 percent of their shots from 3-point range. IND opponents are shooting 32 percent from 3-point range while Saint Mary's is shooting 35 percent from outside and attempts 36 percent of its shots from long distance.
  • Saint Mary's is difficult to guard because it has 3 players on the roster shooting at least 38 percent from 3-point range on over 50 perimeter attempts.
  • Indiana is one of the best teams in the country at defending around the basket. Hoosiers opponents are shooting just 49 percent at the rim. Saint Mary's makes 56 percent of its shots withing five-feet which is right around Division I average.
Style
  • Saint Mary's is reliant on ball screen screen offense. The Gaels score 30.2 points per game out of ball screen actions at 0.91 points per play. Indiana’s defense is fairly average containing ball screen looks. Opponents score 0.77 points per ball screen action (including pass-outs) against the Hoosiers.
  • Saint Mary's relies on post-up offense to score. The Gaels average 13 points per game out of post-up actions. Indiana is fairly average defending the post, allowing 0.8 points per play.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik lists Saint Mary's as a 63-60 favorite, giving the Gaels a 62 percent chance of advancing.

IND Personnel

#23 Trayce Jackson-Davis

Role: Post Up Big
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 245 lbs

Finisher Roll Man Rim Protector Non Shooter Defensive Rebounder Go-To Guy Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers Cut and Finish
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
18.1 8.2 1.9 117.0 26.3% 58.8%

#0 Xavier Johnson

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 200 lbs

Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Go-To Guy Gets to the Line
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.2 3.8 5 103.3 27.7% 47%
🔥🔥🔥: Johnson is averaging 16.2 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 3.9 points above his season average.

#25 Race Thompson

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 228 lbs

Defensive Rebounder Avoids Turnovers Cut and Finish Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
11.5 7.6 1.5 114.1 19.5% 58.1%

#12 Miller Kopp

Role: Runaround Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 215 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Corner 3-Point Specialist Takes Tough Shots Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
6.3 2.6 1.1 98.0 14.0% 47.1%

#45 Parker Stewart

Role: Runaround Wing
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 200 lbs

Off Screen Shooter Corner 3-Point Specialist Catch and Shoot Poor Finisher Low Usage Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
6.4 2.1 1 102.6 13.2% 52.5%

SMC Personnel

#11 Matthias Tass

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'10" | Weight: 245 lbs

Roll Man Non Shooter Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.6 6 2 117.1 23.1% 55.7%

#12 Tommy Kuhse

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 185 lbs

Distributor Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12 3.8 3.5 111.7 22.3% 57.8%
🔥🔥🔥: Kuhse is averaging 18.2 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 6.2 points above his season average.

#0 Logan Johnson

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 170 lbs

Pick Pocket
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
11.5 4 2.7 99.6 22.3% 47%
🔥🔥🔥: Johnson is averaging 15.2 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 3.7 points above his season average.

#44 Alex Ducas

Role: Runaround Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 215 lbs

Corner 3-Point Specialist Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10.2 3.7 0.9 105.8 17.7% 52%

#42 Dan Fotu

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 225 lbs

Stretch Big Man Defensive Rebounder Go-To Guy Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
6.5 3 0.5 106.6 24.4% 54.2%

ATS

Saint Mary's ATS Performance

This Season

Saint Mary's is 20-11-1 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 16 of 32 Saint Mary's games (50%) this season.

Saint Mary's is 4-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 3 of Saint Mary's 7 games on neutral floors (42.9%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/9/2021 Prairie View A&M W, 87-68 -18 W 1 135.5 OVER 19.5
11/12/2021 Texas Southern W, 67-58 -18.5 L -9.5 136 UNDER -11
11/15/2021 Southern Utah W, 70-51 -11 W 8 139.5 UNDER -18.5
11/17/2021 Bellarmine W, 73-64 -17 L -8 133 OVER 4
11/22/2021 vs. Notre Dame W, 62-59 1.5 W 4.5 132 UNDER -11
11/23/2021 vs. Oregon W, 62-50 2 W 14 131.5 UNDER -19.5
11/24/2021 vs. Wisconsin L, 55-61 1 L -5 120 UNDER -4
11/29/2021 UC Riverside W, 67-50 -11 W 6 118.5 UNDER -1.5
12/2/2021 at Utah State W, 60-58 2.5 W 4.5 128.5 UNDER -10.5
12/4/2021 at Colorado State L, 58-74 4 L -12 137 UNDER -5
12/11/2021 UC Santa Barbara W, 80-59 -9 W 12 128.5 OVER 10.5
12/17/2021 vs. San Diego State L, 53-63 2.5 L -7.5 119.5 UNDER -3.5
12/22/2021 Missouri State W, 75-58 -6 W 11 130 OVER 3
12/28/2021 Yale W, 87-60 -12.5 W 14.5 130 OVER 17
1/8/2022 at BYU L, 43-52 3.5 L -5.5 132.5 UNDER -37.5
1/13/2022 at Pepperdine W, 77-62 -12.5 W 2.5 135 OVER 4
1/20/2022 Santa Clara W, 73-65 -9 L -1 138.5 UNDER -0.5
1/22/2022 at Loyola Marymount W, 83-51 -7 W 25 127.5 OVER 6.5
1/27/2022 at San Francisco W, 72-70 3.5 W 5.5 129.5 OVER 12.5
1/29/2022 Pepperdine W, 81-57 -21.5 W 2.5 132.5 OVER 5.5
2/3/2022 at Portland W, 75-54 -13.5 W 7.5 131 UNDER -2
2/5/2022 Loyola Marymount W, 71-60 -16 L -5 129.5 OVER 1.5
2/8/2022 at Santa Clara L, 72-77 -3 L -8 140 OVER 9
2/10/2022 San Diego W, 86-57 -15.5 W 13.5 127 OVER 16
2/12/2022 at Gonzaga L, 58-74 16 P 0 147.5 UNDER -15.5
2/17/2022 San Francisco W, 69-64 -3 W 2 132 OVER 1
2/19/2022 BYU W, 69-64 -6 L -1 134.5 UNDER -1.5
2/24/2022 at San Diego W, 60-46 -11.5 W 2.5 126.5 UNDER -20.5
2/26/2022 Gonzaga W, 67-57 11 W 21 144 UNDER -20
3/7/2022 vs. Santa Clara W, 75-72 -5 L -2 140.5 OVER 6.5
3/8/2022 vs. Gonzaga L, 69-82 13.5 W 0.5 143 OVER 8
3/17/2022 vs. Indiana W, 82-53 -3 W 26 126.5 OVER 8.5

Head to Head

Saint Mary's is 1-0-0 against the spread when it plays against Indiana in recorded games since 2022. The over has hit in 1 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (100%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/17/2022 vs. Indiana W, 82-53 -3 W 26 126.5 OVER 8.5

Indiana ATS Performance

This Season

Indiana is 19-16-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 18 of 35 Indiana games (51.4%) this season.

Indiana is 5-1-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 3 of Indiana’s 6 games on neutral floors (50%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/9/2021 Eastern Michigan W, 68-62 -23.5 L -17.5 140.5 UNDER -10.5
11/12/2021 Northern Illinois W, 85-49 -22.5 W 13.5 138.5 UNDER -4.5
11/17/2021 St. John's W, 76-74 -6 L -4 148.5 OVER 1.5
11/21/2021 Louisiana W, 76-44 -12 W 20 142.5 UNDER -22.5
11/23/2021 Jackson State W, 70-35 -22.5 W 12.5 128 UNDER -23
11/27/2021 Marshall W, 90-79 -11.5 L -0.5 148.5 OVER 20.5
11/30/2021 at Syracuse L, 110-112 1 L -1 144.5 OVER 77.5
12/4/2021 Nebraska W, 68-55 -11.5 W 1.5 142.5 UNDER -19.5
12/8/2021 at Wisconsin L, 59-64 3.5 L -1.5 132.5 UNDER -9.5
12/12/2021 Merrimack W, 81-49 -19.5 W 12.5 123.5 OVER 6.5
12/18/2021 vs. Notre Dame W, 64-56 -4 W 4 138 UNDER -18
12/22/2021 Northern Kentucky W, 79-61 -17 W 1 134.5 OVER 5.5
1/2/2022 at Penn State L, 58-61 -2.5 L -5.5 128 UNDER -9
1/6/2022 Ohio State W, 67-51 -1 W 15 137 UNDER -19
1/9/2022 Minnesota W, 73-60 -11 W 2 131.5 OVER 1.5
1/13/2022 at Iowa L, 74-83 4 L -5 150 OVER 7
1/17/2022 at Nebraska W, 78-71 -9 L -2 144.5 OVER 4.5
1/20/2022 Purdue W, 68-65 3.5 W 6.5 143.5 UNDER -10.5
1/23/2022 Michigan L, 62-80 -4 L -22 133.5 OVER 8.5
1/26/2022 Penn State W, 74-57 -8.5 W 8.5 128 OVER 3
1/29/2022 at Maryland W, 68-55 -1.5 W 11.5 135.5 UNDER -12.5
2/5/2022 Illinois L, 57-74 -1.5 L -18.5 137.5 UNDER -6.5
2/8/2022 at Northwestern L, 51-59 1 L -7 136.5 UNDER -26.5
2/12/2022 at Michigan State L, 61-76 4 L -11 133.5 OVER 3.5
2/15/2022 Wisconsin L, 69-74 -2.5 L -7.5 131 OVER 12
2/21/2022 at Ohio State L, 69-80 7 L -4 135.5 OVER 13.5
2/24/2022 Maryland W, 74-64 -6 W 4 135.5 OVER 2.5
2/27/2022 at Minnesota W, 84-79 -2.5 W 2.5 131.5 OVER 31.5
3/2/2022 Rutgers L, 63-66 -4.5 L -7.5 132.5 UNDER -3.5
3/5/2022 at Purdue L, 67-69 10 W 8 141 UNDER -5
3/10/2022 vs. Michigan W, 74-69 1 W 6 137 OVER 6
3/11/2022 vs. Illinois W, 65-63 3.5 W 5.5 136 UNDER -8
3/12/2022 vs. Iowa L, 77-80 6 W 3 144 OVER 13
3/15/2022 vs. Wyoming W, 66-58 -3.5 W 4.5 133 UNDER -9
3/17/2022 vs. Saint Mary's L, 53-82 3 L -26 126.5 OVER 8.5

Head to Head

Indiana is 0-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Saint Mary's in recorded games since 2022. The over has hit in 1 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (100%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/17/2022 vs. Saint Mary's L, 53-82 3 L -26 126.5 OVER 8.5
Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Jordan Geronimo (03/16): Geronimo closed with 15 points (7-11 FG, 1-4 3Pt, 0-2 FT), seven rebounds, one assist and one block across 19 minutes during Tuesday's 66-58 win over Wyoming.
  • Trayce Jackson-Davis (03/16): Jackson-Davis ended with 29 points (10-16 FG, 9-11 FT), nine rebounds and one block over 36 minutes during Tuesday's 66-58 win over Wyoming.
  • Jordan Geronimo (03/15): Geronimo (knee) is participating in warmups ahead of Tuesday's First Four game against Wyoming and appears set to play, Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star reports.
  • Trey Galloway (03/14): Galloway (groin) is expected to be available for Indiana on Tuesday as they take on Wyoming, Jeff Rabjohns of 247 Sports reports.
  • Miller Kopp (03/13): Kopp had eight points (2-11 FG, 2-7 3Pt, 2-2 FT), three rebounds, one assist, one block and one steal over 33 minutes during Saturday's 80-77 loss to Iowa.
  • Jordan Geronimo (03/12): Geronimo (knee) appears to be sitting out of warmups and will likely not play in the game versus Iowa, Mike Schumann of the Daily Hoosier reports.
  • Trayce Jackson-Davis (03/11): Jackson-Davis racked up 21 points (9-13 FG, 3-4 FT), seven rebounds, three assists and one block over 36 minutes during Friday's 65-63 win over Illinois.
  • Trey Galloway (03/11): Galloway (groin) ended Thursday's 74-69 win over Michigan with four points (2-6 FG), one rebound, five assists and three steals across 28 minutes.
  • Xavier Johnson (03/11): Johnson ended Thursday's 74-69 win over Michigan with 17 points (5-10 FG, 3-4 3Pt, 4-4 FT), eight rebounds, seven assists and one steal in 27 minutes.
  • Logan Johnson (03/09): Johnson finished Tuesday's 82-69 loss to Gonzaga with 21 points (9-14 FG, 3-4 FT), three rebounds, two assists, one block and one steal in 36 minutes.
  • Augustas Marciulionis (03/09): Marciulionis had two assists in four minutes during Tuesday's 82-69 loss to Gonzaga in the WCC tournament final.
  • Tommy Kuhse (03/08): Kuhse totaled 27 points (11-18 FG, 3-3 3Pt, 2-2 FT), five rebounds, four assists and one steal over 40 minutes during Monday's 75-72 win over Santa Clara.
  • Race Thompson (03/06): Thompson accumulated nine points (4-8 FG, 1-4 3Pt), 10 rebounds and one steal over 27 minutes during Saturday's 69-67 loss to Purdue.
  • Trey Galloway (03/05): Galloway (groin) remains out Saturday versus Purdue, Alec Lasley of Rivals.com reports.
  • Khristian Lander (03/05): Lander (leg) is out Saturday against Purdue, Alec Lasley of Rivals.com reports.
  • Trayce Jackson-Davis (03/03): Jackson-Davis accumulated 19 points (7-11 FG, 5-6 FT), nine rebounds, one assist, one block and one steal across 32 minutes during Wednesday's 66-63 loss to Rutgers.
  • Khristian Lander (03/02): Lander (leg) will not be available for Wednesday's game against Rutgers, Alec Lasley of Hooiser.com reports.
  • Trey Galloway (03/01): Galloway continues to deal with a pulled groin and has no clear timetable for a return, Kevin Brockway of The Anderson Herald Bulletin reports.
  • Rob Phinisee (02/28): Phinisee provided eight points (3-6 FG, 2-4 3Pt) and one rebound in nine minutes during Sunday's 84-79 victory over Minnesota.
  • Xavier Johnson (02/28): Johnson totaled 24 points (7-16 FG, 4-6 3Pt, 6-9 FT), six rebounds and eight assists in 31 minutes during Sunday's 84-79 win over Minnesota.
  • Miller Kopp (02/28): Kopp notched 10 points (3-6 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 2-3 FT) and one rebound over 32 minutes during Sunday's 84-79 victory over Minnesota.
  • Khristian Lander (02/27): Lander (undisclosed) isn't expected to play Sunday against Minnesota, Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star reports.
  • Trey Galloway (02/27): Galloway (lower body) is unavailable for Sunday's game at Minnesota, Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star reports.
  • Alex Ducas (02/27): Ducas ended Saturday's 67-57 win over Gonzaga with 10 points (3-7 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 2-2 FT), three rebounds and two steals across 33 minutes.
  • Augustas Marciulionis (02/27): Marciulionis (undisclosed) didn't play Saturday against Gonzaga.