Preview: Houston vs. Baylor

Game Houston Cougars vs. Baylor Bears
Date: April 3rd, 2021 5:14 PM
TV: CBS
Spread: BAY -5
Total: 135 Open: 135.5

Preview

Houston Offense vs. Baylor Defense

Houston checks in at 5th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Cougars shoot 49.9 percent on twos and 34.9 percent on threes for a 50.9 effective field goal percentage.

Baylor is ranked 35th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Baylor opponents make 48.3 percent of their twos and 33.2 percent of their threes for a 48.9 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
  • Baylor’s defense has been struggling over the last month. The Bears are ranked 82nd in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 35th for the season.
  • Houston plays at a deliberate pace. The Cougars average 65 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball.
  • You can trust Houston at the line in a close game. The Cougars shoot 74 percent at the line for the season.
Extra Possessions
  • Houston does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Cougars only turn it over on 16.3 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a Baylor defense that forces giveaways on 24.8 percent of possessions.
  • Houston does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Cougars score 17.0 points points per game off of turnovers.
  • The Cougars are fantastic on the offensive glass and rebound 40.2 percent of their missed shots. Baylor is just okay on the defensive glass, grabbing 69.7 percent of opponent misses, which means the rebounding battle could swing this game in either direction.
  • Second chance points are crucial to Houston’s offense. The Cougars score 14.6 points off of second chances and only allow 8.7 points per game, outscoring teams by 5.9 points per game just on second chance opportunities. Baylor has also been great on the glass this year, outscoring opponents by 4.4 points per game on second chances.
Shot Profile
  • Houston’s offensive attack is perimeter-oriented. The Cougars attempt 42 percent of their shots from 3-point range. The Cougars also make a lot of those attempts, shooting 35 percent from outside the arc.
  • Baylor does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, BAY contests 57 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Houston excels at creating open jumpers. Only 41 percent of the Cougars’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • Houston is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Cougars shoot 62 percent at the rim and Baylor allows 60 percent shooting inside of five feet.
  • Houston’s offense is heavy on mid-range jumpers. The Cougars attempt 27 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 37 percent clip.
  • Baylor’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Bears opponents attempt 27 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 31 percent clip. Houston’s offense shoots 37 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Houston trusts its players to create in one-on-one situations and scores 8.2 points per game out of iso actions at 0.83 points per play. Baylor’s defense excels at defending one-on-one, allowing just 0.68 points per isolation play.

Baylor Offense vs. Houston Defense

The Bears are ranked 3rd nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Baylor shoots 53.7 percent on twos and 40.8 percent on threes for a 56.6 effective field goal percentage.

Houston’s defense is ranked 8th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 42.6 percent on twos and 29 percent on threes for a 42.9 effective field goal percentage against the Cougars.

Basics
  • Houston’s defense needs to get back on track in the NCAA Tournament. Over the last 30 days, the Cougars are ranked 41st in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to 8th overall.
  • According to KenPom, Baylor is one of the “luckier” teams in the field, ranked 69th nationally in luck, meaning that they’ve won more games than their adjusted efficiency margin stats would indicate.
  • Houston can get into trouble given its tendency to commit fouls. The Cougars send their opponents to the free-throw line 42 times per 100 shot attempts. That’s one of the worst rates in the country and Baylor gets to the stripe 27 times per 100 field goal attempts.
Extra Possessions
  • Baylor does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Bears only turn it over on 16.8 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a Houston defense that forces giveaways on 21.6 percent of possessions.
  • Baylor does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Bears score 21.4 points points per game off of turnovers. Houston avoids turnovers for touchdowns, allowing only 10.1 points per game off of giveaways.
  • Baylor is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Bears grab 36.8 percent of their missed shots. Houston is average on the defensive glass, grabbing 71.8 percent of opponent misses, and that matchup on the boards will be a key swing stat on Saturday.
  • Second chance points are crucial to Baylor’s offense. The Bears score 14.4 points off of second chances and only allow 10.0 points per game, outscoring teams by 4.4 points per game just on second chance opportunities. Houston has also been great on the glass this year, outscoring opponents by 5.9 points per game on second chances.
Shot Profile
  • Baylor dominates the paint. The Bears score 35.7 points and allow 29.3 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 6.4 points per game. Houston has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 5.6 points per game in the paint.
  • Baylor is difficult to guard because it has 5 players on the roster shooting at least 38 percent from 3-point range on over 50 perimeter attempts.
  • Houston’s defense excels around the bucket, allowing 51 percent shooting within five-feet of the rim. Baylor is generally a great finishing team, making 62 percent of its shots at the bucket — setting up a key battle inside.
  • Houston’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Cougars opponents attempt 25 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 29 percent clip. Baylor’s offense shoots 38 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Baylor has an elite transition offense and scores 14.3 points per game in transition, while Houston’s transition defense has been run of the mill and allows 10.9 points per game in transition.
  • Modern basketball is a ball screen game and Baylor’s offense is no exception. The Bears score 27.2 points per game out of ball screens and average 0.96 points per ball screen play. Houston’s defense excels at defending ball screens, allowing just 0.75 points per play which should set up a key strength-on-strength matchup.
  • Baylor runs more isolation sets than the average Division I team. The Bears score 8.0 points per game out of ioslations at 0.93 points per play. Houston’s defense excels at defending one-on-one, allowing just 0.63 points per isolation play.

Bottom Line

According to Bart Torvik, Houston is a 71-70 favorite with a 55 percent chance of advancing.

HOU Personnel

#24 Quentin Grimes

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 205 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Transition Scorer Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Go-To Guy Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
18 6 1.8 117.9 25.8% 52.7%

#0 Marcus Sasser

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 190 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Off the Dribble Shooter Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
13.2 2.5 2.2 114.1 20.5% 48.9%

#3 DeJon Jarreau

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 185 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
11.2 5.6 4.4 111.6 23.5% 50.4%

#4 Justin Gorham

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 225 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Stretch Big Man Offensive Rebounder Smart Shot Selection Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.6 8.8 1.2 131.6 15.8% 55.3%

#12 Tramon Mark

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 180 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8 3.1 1.8 105.0 23.0% 42.5%

BAY Personnel

#12 Jared Butler

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 195 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Go-To Guy Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
16.6 3.3 4.7 115.2 27.3% 56.9%

#31 MaCio Teague

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 195 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
15.6 4.1 1.6 125.2 20.3% 56.1%

#45 Davion Mitchell

Role: Domineering Ball Handler
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 205 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
14.2 2.6 5.3 122.3 20.9% 63.1%

#10 Adam Flagler

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 180 lbs

Transition Scorer Corner 3-Point Specialist Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9 2.4 1.4 127.4 17.4% 57.5%

#24 Matthew Mayer

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 225 lbs

Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Defensive Rebounder Go-To Guy Efficient Shooter Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.2 3.8 1 112.6 25.0% 56.8%

ATS

Baylor ATS Performance

This Season

Baylor is 18-10-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 17 of 28 Baylor games (60.7%) this season.

Baylor is 6-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 6 of Baylor’s 9 games on neutral floors (66.7%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/28/2020 vs. Louisiana W, 112-82 -20 W 10 147.5 OVER 46.5
11/29/2020 vs. Washington W, 86-52 -11 W 23 149.5 UNDER -11.5
12/2/2020 vs. Illinois W, 82-69 -5.5 W 7.5 144.5 OVER 6.5
12/9/2020 Stephen F. Austin W, 83-52 -23.5 W 7.5 151.5 UNDER -16.5
12/19/2020 at Kansas State W, 100-69 -20.5 W 10.5 136.5 OVER 32.5
12/21/2020 Arkansas-Pine Bluff W, 99-42 -42.5 W 14.5 142 UNDER -1
12/29/2020 Central Arkansas W, 93-56 -33.5 W 3.5 155.5 UNDER -6.5
12/30/2020 Alcorn State W, 105-76 -44 L -15 148 OVER 33
1/2/2021 at Iowa State W, 76-65 -15.5 L -4.5 148.5 UNDER -7.5
1/6/2021 Oklahoma W, 76-61 -11.5 W 3.5 151 UNDER -14
1/9/2021 at TCU W, 67-49 -12.5 W 5.5 144 UNDER -28
1/16/2021 at Texas Tech W, 68-60 -5 W 3 138.5 UNDER -10.5
1/18/2021 Kansas W, 77-69 -9 L -1 139.5 OVER 6.5
1/23/2021 at Oklahoma State W, 81-66 -9 W 6 145.5 OVER 1.5
1/27/2021 Kansas State W, 107-59 -24.5 W 23.5 136.5 OVER 29.5
1/30/2021 Auburn W, 84-72 -14.5 L -2.5 154 OVER 2
2/2/2021 at Texas W, 83-69 -6 W 8 144.5 OVER 7.5
2/23/2021 Iowa State W, 77-72 -24 L -19 147.5 OVER 1.5
2/27/2021 at Kansas L, 58-71 -5 L -18 142 UNDER -13
3/2/2021 at West Virginia W, 94-89 -4.5 W 0.5 149.5 OVER 33.5
3/4/2021 Oklahoma State W, 81-70 -12 L -1 149.5 OVER 1.5
3/7/2021 Texas Tech W, 88-73 -8.5 W 6.5 137.5 OVER 23.5
3/11/2021 vs. Kansas State W, 74-68 -20 L -14 137 OVER 5
3/12/2021 vs. Oklahoma State L, 74-83 -9.5 L -18.5 151 OVER 6
3/19/2021 vs. Hartford W, 79-55 -26 L -2 140.5 UNDER -6.5
3/21/2021 vs. Wisconsin W, 76-63 -6.5 W 6.5 137 OVER 2
3/27/2021 vs. Villanova W, 62-51 -7.5 W 3.5 142.5 UNDER -29.5
3/29/2021 vs. Arkansas W, 81-72 -7 W 2 149 OVER 4

Head to Head

We don’t have any head-to-head games on file between these two teams.

Houston ATS Performance

This Season

Houston is 20-10-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 14 of 30 Houston games (46.7%) this season.

Houston is 5-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 3 of Houston’s 8 games on neutral floors (37.5%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 Lamar W, 89-45 -21.5 W 22.5 138.5 UNDER -4.5
11/27/2020 Boise State W, 68-58 -11.5 L -1.5 144.5 UNDER -18.5
11/29/2020 vs. Texas Tech W, 64-53 2.5 W 13.5 129.5 UNDER -12.5
12/5/2020 South Carolina W, 77-67 -9.5 W 0.5 140.5 OVER 3.5
12/20/2020 Alcorn State W, 88-55 -34.5 L -1.5 142 OVER 1
12/22/2020 Temple W, 76-50 -16.5 W 9.5 134.5 UNDER -8.5
12/26/2020 at UCF W, 63-54 -7.5 W 1.5 134.5 UNDER -17.5
12/29/2020 at Tulsa L, 64-65 -7.5 L -8.5 128.5 OVER 0.5
1/3/2021 at SMU W, 74-60 -1.5 W 12.5 134 UNDER 0
1/6/2021 Wichita State W, 70-63 -11.5 L -4.5 136 UNDER -3
1/9/2021 Tulane W, 71-50 -19 W 2 128.5 UNDER -7.5
1/17/2021 UCF W, 75-58 -13.5 W 3.5 129.5 OVER 3.5
1/20/2021 Tulsa W, 86-59 -12 W 15 124.5 OVER 20.5
1/23/2021 at Temple W, 68-51 -11.5 W 5.5 131 UNDER -12
1/28/2021 at Tulane W, 83-60 -17.5 W 5.5 127.5 OVER 15.5
1/31/2021 SMU W, 70-48 -10.5 W 11.5 139.5 UNDER -21.5
2/3/2021 at East Carolina L, 73-82 -16.5 L -25.5 132.5 OVER 22.5
2/10/2021 at South Florida W, 82-65 -11.5 W 5.5 128.5 OVER 18.5
2/18/2021 at Wichita State L, 63-68 -8 L -13 137.5 UNDER -6.5
2/21/2021 Cincinnati W, 90-52 -12.5 W 25.5 135.5 OVER 6.5
2/25/2021 Western Kentucky W, 81-57 -11.5 W 12.5 136 OVER 2
2/28/2021 South Florida W, 98-52 -18.5 W 27.5 132 OVER 18
3/7/2021 Memphis W, 67-64 -10 L -7 134.5 UNDER -3.5
3/12/2021 vs. Tulane W, 77-52 -17.5 W 7.5 132 UNDER -3
3/13/2021 vs. Memphis W, 76-74 -7.5 L -5.5 132.5 OVER 17.5
3/14/2021 vs. Cincinnati W, 91-54 -13.5 W 23.5 136.5 OVER 8.5
3/19/2021 vs. Cleveland State W, 87-56 -20 W 11 135 OVER 8
3/21/2021 vs. Rutgers W, 63-60 -8 L -5 131.5 UNDER -8.5
3/27/2021 vs. Syracuse W, 62-46 -6.5 W 9.5 140 UNDER -32
3/29/2021 vs. Oregon State W, 67-61 -8 L -2 130.5 UNDER -2.5

Head to Head

We don’t have any head-to-head games on file between these two teams.

Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Justin Gorham (03/28): Gorham had 13 points (4-6 FG, 5-6 FT), 10 rebounds and two assists in 28 minutes during Saturday's 62-46 win over Syracuse.
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/28): Jarreau had nine points (3-8 FG, 0-3 3Pt, 3-6 FT), eight rebounds, eight assists, a steal and a block in 34 minutes during Saturday's 62-46 win over Syracuse in the Sweet 16.
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/27): Jarreau (hip) is starting Saturday's NCAA Tournament game against Syracuse, Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle reports.
  • Adam Flagler (03/27): Flagler posted a team-high 16 points (4-6 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 6-6 FT), three rebounds, one assist, and a steal in the win over Villanova on Saturday.
  • Davion Mitchell (03/27): Mitchell had 14 points (7-13 FG, 0-3 3Pt), two assists, two steals, one rebound, and a block in the Sweet Sixteen win over Villanova on Saturday
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/22): Jarreau finished the game with 17 points (6-12 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 3-4 FT, five rebounds and two assists across 32 minutes in Sunday's 63-60 victory over Rutgers.
  • Quentin Grimes (03/21): Grimes had a game-high 22 points (7-15 FG, 5-9 3Pt, 3-6 FT), nine rebounds and two steals across 40 minutes in Sunday's 63-60 victory over Rutgers.
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/21): Jarreau (hip) returned to action Sunday against Rutgers following a hip problem.
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/20): Jarreau (hip) will practice Saturday, though it's unclear to what extent he'll participate, Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle reports.
  • J'wan Roberts (03/19): Roberts (thumb) was held scoreless with one rebound over two minutes in Friday's 87-56 win over Cleveland State.
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/19): Jarreau (hip) is unlikely to play in Sunday's game, Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle reports.
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/19): Jarreau suffered a hip injury during the first half of Friday's game against Cleveland State and is questionable to return, Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle reports.
  • J'wan Roberts (03/19): Roberts (thumb) is a game-time decision for Friday's NCAA Tournament matchup with Cleveland State, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • J'wan Roberts (03/17): Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson said Roberts (thumb) returned to practice Tuesday, leaving the door open for the freshman forward to play Friday in the Cougars' matchup with Cleveland State in the opening round of the NCAA tournament, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • DeJon Jarreau (03/13): Jarreau had 15 points (5-10 FG, 0-3 3Pt, 5-5 FT), 10 rebounds and 10 assists across 34 minutes in Friday's 77-52 victory over Tulane.
  • Brison Gresham (03/12): Gresham will come off the bench for Friday's AAC Tournament game against Tulane, Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle reports.
  • Reggie Chaney (03/12): Chaney is in the starting lineup for Friday's game against Tulane, Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle reports.
  • J'wan Roberts (03/12): Roberts (thumb) will remain out for Friday's AAC Tournament game against Tulane, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Davion Mitchell (03/09): Mitchell was named the 2020-21 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year on Monday.
  • MaCio Teague (03/08): Teague had 35 points (11-16 FG, 10-12 3Pt, 3-4 FT), three rebounds, an assist and a steal across 36 minutes in Sunday's 88-73 victory over Texas Tech.
  • J'wan Roberts (03/07): Roberts injured his right thumb during practice this past week and is unavailable for Sunday's game against Memphis, Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle reports.
  • Reggie Chaney (03/07): Chaney is not in the starting lineup for Sunday's game against Memphis.
  • Brison Gresham (03/07): Gresham is in the starting lineup for Sunday's game against Memphis.
  • MaCio Teague (03/03): Teague notched 11 points (5-11 FG, 1-7 3Pt), four rebounds, and two assists in the win over West Virginia on Tuesday.
  • Matthew Mayer (03/03): Mayer came off the bench and provided 18 points (7-12 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 1-1 FT), five rebounds, and four steals in the win over West Virginia on Tuesday.