Preview: Florida State vs. Michigan

Game Florida State Seminoles vs. Michigan Wolverines
Date: March 28th, 2021 5:00 PM
TV: CBS
Spread: MICH -1.5 Open -3
Total: 140.5 Open: 146

Preview

Florida State Offense vs. Michigan Defense

Florida State checks in at 14th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Seminoles shoot 52.6 percent on twos and 37.6 percent on threes for a 54 effective field goal percentage.

Michigan is ranked 13th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Michigan opponents make 42.6 percent of their twos and 32.4 percent of their threes for a 44.5 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
  • Florida State’s offense has been struggling over the last month. The Seminoles are ranked 112th in adjusted offensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 14th for the season.
  • Florida State is underseeded according to efficiency metrics. The 4th seeded Seminoles are ranked 10th nationally per Bart Torvik. Their computer numbers suggest they should be closer to a 2 or 3 seed.
  • The Seminoles are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 79.57 inches according to KenPom.com. Michigan should match up well against the Seminoles’ size, with an average height of 77.93 inches.
  • The Seminoles have a size advantage on the perimeter as their guards rank in the 100th percentile size wise compared to Michigan’s guards which rank in the 28th percentile.
  • Florida State plays as fast as any team in the country. The Seminoles average 70 possessions per game.
  • You can trust Florida State at the line in a close game. The Seminoles shoot 74 percent at the line for the season.
Extra Possessions
  • The game should be fairly turnover neutral on this side of the ball. Florida State turns it over on 20.2 percent of possessions and Michigan forces giveaways on 14.8 percent of possessions.
  • The Seminoles are fantastic on the offensive glass and rebound 34.6 percent of their missed shots. Michigan is one of the better defensive rebounding teams in the field, grabbing 75 percent of opponent misses, which should negate this advantage.
  • Florida State is unique because its guards are aggressive on the offensive glass. Perimeter players account for 23.4 percent of the Seminoles’ offensive boards. That should put extra pressure on Michigan’s perimeter players to clean up the glass.
Shot Profile
  • Michigan does a great job running its opponents off the 3-point line. MICH opponents attempt 32 percent of their shots from 3-point range and are shooting 33 percent from 3-point range while Florida State is shooting 37 percent from outside and attempts 35 percent of its shots from long distance.
  • Michigan does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, MICH contests 62 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Florida State’s offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 55 percent of the Seminoles’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • Florida State dominates the paint. The Seminoles score 34.5 points and allow 26.3 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 8.3 points per game. Michigan has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 7.3 points per game in the paint.
  • Florida State is difficult to guard because it has 3 players on the roster shooting at least 38 percent from 3-point range on over 50 perimeter attempts.
  • Michigan is one of the best teams in the country at defending around the basket. Wolverines opponents are shooting just 50 percent at the rim. Florida State is usually very good at creating quality looks around the basket — finishing 61 percent of its shots withing five-feet — which sets up an interesting battle inside.
  • Michigan’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Wolverines opponents attempt 30 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 33 percent clip. Florida State’s offense shoots 36 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Florida State loves to push the ball in transition. An impressive 20 percent of FSU’s offensive plays are in transition and those transition plays create 16.3 points per game. Michigan’s defense does a great job of limiting transition opportunities and only allows 9.3 points per game in transition.
  • Michigan’s defense is unique for its ability to prevent assists. Only 41.5 percent of made baskets are assisted against the Wolverines.
  • Florida State is reliant on ball screen screen offense. The Seminoles score 27.5 points per game out of ball screen actions at 0.86 points per play. Michigan’s defense is fairly average containing ball screen looks. Opponents score 0.85 points per ball screen action (including pass-outs) against the Wolverines.

Michigan Offense vs. Florida State Defense

The Wolverines are ranked 8th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Michigan shoots 53.9 percent on twos and 38.3 percent on threes for a 55.1 effective field goal percentage.

Florida State’s defense is ranked 25th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 44.5 percent on twos and 32.4 percent on threes for a 46.1 effective field goal percentage against the Seminoles.

Basics
  • Michigan’s offense enters the tournament on a cold streak. Over the last 30 days, the Wolverines are ranked 30th in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to 8th for the year.
  • Michigan is one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, averaging 2.14 years of experience weighted by minutes played, per KenPom.com.
  • Michigan does a great job attacking full-court pressure defenses, scoring 0.96 points per play. Florida State’s applies full court pressure on 31.7 percent of possessions which should allow the Wolverines to create an offensive advantage.
  • Michigan makes 77 percent of its free throws which should come in handy in a close game.
Extra Possessions
  • Second chance points are crucial to Michigan’s offense. The Wolverines score 11.0 points off of second chances and only allow 8.4 points per game, outscoring teams by 2.6 points per game just on second chance opportunities.
Shot Profile
  • Florida State allows opponents to attempt 40 percent of their shots from 3-point range. The Seminoles have gotten a bit lucky so far this season as opponents only make 32 percent of their threes. On the year, Michigan is shooting 38 from outside and attempts 34 percent of its shots from long distance.
  • Michigan dominates the paint. The Wolverines score 34.9 points and allow 27.6 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 7.3 points per game. Florida State has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 8.3 points per game in the paint.
  • Michigan is difficult to guard because it has 4 players on the roster shooting at least 38 percent from 3-point range on over 50 perimeter attempts.
  • Florida State’s defense excels around the bucket, allowing 50 percent shooting within five-feet of the rim. Michigan is generally a great finishing team, making 63 percent of its shots at the bucket — setting up a key battle inside.
Style
  • Michigan is one of the better passing teams in the country and 57.4 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season.
  • Modern basketball is a ball screen game and Michigan’s offense is no exception. The Wolverines score 26.6 points per game out of ball screens and average 0.94 points per ball screen play. Florida State’s defense excels at defending ball screens, allowing just 0.78 points per play which should set up a key strength-on-strength matchup.
  • Michigan has one of the most dominant post-up offenses in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 13.6 points per game on 1.11 points per post-up play. That should be a mismatch against a Florida State team that allows 1.01 points per post-up play.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik lists Michigan as a 73-70 favorite, giving the Wolverines a 61 percent chance of advancing.

FSU Personnel

#1 Raiquan Gray

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 260 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Isolation Scorer Defensive Rebounder Gets to the Line
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12 6.4 2.2 112.0 23.1% 54.7%

#23 M.J. Walker

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 213 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Transition Scorer Corner 3-Point Specialist Turnover Prone Catch and Shoot Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.4 2.5 2.5 104.8 22.4% 53.5%

#4 Scottie Barnes

Role: Tall Ball Handler
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 227 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Go-To Guy Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10.5 4.1 4 107.0 25.6% 52.6%

#5 Balsa Koprivica

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 7'1" | Weight: 260 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Finisher Rim Protector Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Gets to the Line
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.3 5.9 0.7 117.0 21.9% 59.7%

#2 Anthony Polite

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 215 lbs

Corner 3-Point Specialist Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Smart Shot Selection Efficient Shooter Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.5 4.4 1.6 118.8 16.7% 59.4%

MICH Personnel

#1 Hunter Dickinson

Role: Post Up Big
Height: 7'1" | Weight: 255 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Finisher Roll Man Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Defensive Rebounder Go-To Guy Gets to the Line Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
14.2 7.6 0.9 112.8 26.6% 60.2%

#21 Franz Wagner

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 220 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.8 6.5 3 122.0 19.3% 56.2%

#2 Isaiah Livers

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 230 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
13.1 6 2 122.7 18.9% 57%
❄️❄️❄️: Livers is averaging 8.2 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 4.9 points below his season average.

#12 Mike Smith

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 5'11" | Weight: 185 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Turnover Prone Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.3 2.7 5.4 110.0 19.1% 50%

#55 Eli Brooks

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 185 lbs

Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.5 3.1 3.1 118.4 16.1% 52.2%
🔥🔥🔥: Brooks is averaging 13.2 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 3.7 points above his season average.

ATS

Michigan ATS Performance

This Season

Michigan is 18-8-1 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 12 of 27 Michigan games (44.4%) this season.

Michigan is 3-2-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 3 of Michigan’s 5 games on neutral floors (60%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 Bowling Green W, 96-82 -14 P 0 149 OVER 29
11/29/2020 Oakland W, 81-71 -31 L -21 145.5 OVER 6.5
12/2/2020 Ball State W, 84-65 -15.5 W 3.5 142 OVER 7
12/6/2020 UCF W, 80-58 -11.5 W 10.5 141.5 UNDER -3.5
12/9/2020 Toledo W, 91-71 -13.5 W 6.5 145.5 OVER 16.5
12/13/2020 Penn State W, 62-58 -7 L -3 152 UNDER -32
12/25/2020 at Nebraska W, 80-69 -8 W 3 148.5 OVER 0.5
12/31/2020 at Maryland W, 84-73 -2 W 9 142.5 OVER 14.5
1/3/2021 Northwestern W, 85-66 -9 W 10 144.5 OVER 6.5
1/6/2021 Minnesota W, 82-57 -7.5 W 17.5 152 UNDER -13
1/12/2021 Wisconsin W, 77-54 -3.5 W 19.5 134 UNDER -3
1/16/2021 at Minnesota L, 57-75 -6 L -24 147.5 UNDER -15.5
1/19/2021 Maryland W, 87-63 -10 W 14 140.5 OVER 9.5
1/22/2021 at Purdue W, 70-53 -3.5 W 13.5 138 UNDER -15
2/14/2021 at Wisconsin W, 67-59 0 W 8 133.5 UNDER -7.5
2/18/2021 Rutgers W, 71-64 -10 L -3 136.5 UNDER -1.5
2/21/2021 at Ohio State W, 92-87 -1.5 W 3.5 144.5 OVER 34.5
2/25/2021 Iowa W, 79-57 -5 W 17 155.5 UNDER -19.5
2/27/2021 at Indiana W, 73-57 -8 W 8 138.5 UNDER -8.5
3/2/2021 Illinois L, 53-76 -8 L -31 146.5 UNDER -17.5
3/4/2021 Michigan State W, 69-50 -12 W 7 140 UNDER -21
3/7/2021 at Michigan State L, 64-70 -8 L -14 138 UNDER -4
3/12/2021 vs. Maryland W, 79-66 -8 W 5 133.5 OVER 11.5
3/13/2021 vs. Ohio State L, 67-68 -6.5 L -7.5 144.5 UNDER -9.5
3/20/2021 vs. Texas Southern W, 82-66 -26 L -10 142 OVER 6
3/22/2021 vs. LSU W, 86-78 -5 W 3 149 OVER 15
3/28/2021 vs. Florida State W, 76-58 -2 W 16 143 UNDER -9

Head to Head

Michigan is 1-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Florida State in recorded games since 2018. The over has hit in 0 out of 2 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/24/2018 vs. Florida State W, 58-54 -4.5 L -0.5 144.5 UNDER -32.5
3/28/2021 vs. Florida State W, 76-58 -2 W 16 143 UNDER -9

Florida State ATS Performance

This Season

Florida State is 13-11-1 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 14 of 25 Florida State games (56%) this season.

Florida State is 2-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 1 of Florida State’s 5 games on neutral floors (20%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
12/2/2020 North Florida W, 86-58 -25.5 W 2.5 149.5 UNDER -5.5
12/9/2020 Indiana W, 69-67 -2.5 L -0.5 140.5 UNDER -4.5
12/12/2020 Florida W, 83-71 -1.5 W 10.5 135.5 OVER 18.5
12/15/2020 Georgia Tech W, 74-61 -8.5 W 4.5 141.5 UNDER -6.5
12/19/2020 UCF L, 74-86 -12.5 L -24.5 134.5 OVER 25.5
12/21/2020 Gardner-Webb W, 72-59 -20 L -7 143 UNDER -12
12/29/2020 at Clemson L, 67-77 2.5 L -7.5 131.5 OVER 12.5
1/13/2021 NC State W, 105-73 -3.5 W 28.5 142.5 OVER 35.5
1/16/2021 North Carolina W, 82-75 -4.5 W 2.5 143.5 OVER 13.5
1/18/2021 at Louisville W, 78-65 2.5 W 15.5 140.5 OVER 2.5
1/23/2021 Clemson W, 80-61 -6.5 W 12.5 135 OVER 6
1/27/2021 Miami W, 81-59 -11.5 W 10.5 141.5 UNDER -1.5
1/30/2021 at Georgia Tech L, 65-76 -4.5 L -15.5 143.5 UNDER -2.5
2/13/2021 Wake Forest W, 92-85 -13.5 L -6.5 142.5 OVER 34.5
2/15/2021 Virginia W, 81-60 -1.5 W 19.5 127.5 OVER 13.5
2/20/2021 at Pittsburgh W, 79-72 -7 P 0 146 OVER 5
2/24/2021 at Miami W, 88-71 -11.5 W 5.5 143 OVER 16
2/27/2021 at North Carolina L, 70-78 -3 L -11 152 UNDER -4
3/3/2021 Boston College W, 93-64 -18.5 W 10.5 155.5 OVER 1.5
3/6/2021 at Notre Dame L, 73-83 -7 L -17 152.5 OVER 3.5
3/12/2021 vs. North Carolina W, 69-66 -2.5 W 0.5 150.5 UNDER -15.5
3/13/2021 vs. Georgia Tech L, 75-80 -4.5 L -9.5 147.5 OVER 7.5
3/20/2021 vs. UNC Greensboro W, 64-54 -10.5 L -0.5 145.5 UNDER -27.5
3/22/2021 vs. Colorado W, 71-53 -1 W 17 139 UNDER -15
3/28/2021 vs. Michigan L, 58-76 2 L -16 143 UNDER -9

Head to Head

Florida State is 1-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Michigan in recorded games since 2018. The over has hit in 0 out of 2 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/24/2018 vs. Michigan L, 54-58 4.5 W 0.5 144.5 UNDER -32.5
3/28/2021 vs. Michigan L, 58-76 2 L -16 143 UNDER -9
Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Isaiah Livers (03/28): Livers (foot) will miss the remainder of the NCAA Tournament, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Malik Osborne (03/23): Osborne had 11 points (4-8 FG, 1-4 3Pt, 2-3 FT), five rebounds and a steal across 20 minutes off the bench in Monday's win over Colorado.
  • Anthony Polite (03/23): Polite notched a career-high 22 points (8-12 FG, 4-7 3Pt, 2-2 FT) while adding five rebounds, four assists and four steals in Monday's win over Colorado.
  • Hunter Dickinson (03/23): Dickinson compiled 12 points (4-7 FG, 4-5 FT), 11 rebounds, three assists and one block over 31 minutes in Monday's 86-78 win over LSU.
  • Eli Brooks (03/23): Brooks tallied 21 points (7-11 FG, 5-9 3Pt, 2-2 FT), seven assists and four rebounds over 32 minutes in Monday's 86-78 win over LSU.
  • Mike Smith (03/21): Smith posted 18 points (6-12 FG, 2-6 3Pt, 4-4 FT), five assists, four rebounds and one steal over 37 minutes in Saturday's 82-66 win over Texas Southern.
  • Balsa Koprivica (03/20): Koprivica finished with 13 points (6-9 FG, 1-2 FT), nine rebounds, two blocks and an assist across 24 minutes in Saturday's win over UNC Greensboro.
  • Raiquan Gray (03/20): Gray delivered 17 points (8-13 FG, 0-2 3Pt, 1-4 FT), seven rebounds, three assists and a block across 31 minutes in Saturday's win over UNC Greensboro.
  • Anthony Polite (03/20): Polite had 12 points (5-8 FG, 0-2 3Pt, 2-2 FT), four rebounds, two assists and a steal across 30 minutes in Saturday's win over UNC Greensboro.
  • Isaiah Livers (03/20): Per the CBS broadcast, Livers (foot) is looking at a 6-to-8 week timetable to return, Ethan Sears of The Michigan Daily reports.
  • Scottie Barnes (03/14): Barnes registered 21 points (8-10 FG, 2-2 3Pt, 3-3 FT), four rebounds and three assists across 29 minutes in Saturday's 80-75 loss against Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship.
  • Balsa Koprivica (03/14): Koprivica had 11 points (4-9 FG, 3-4 FT), 10 rebounds and two blocks across 26 minutes in Saturday's 80-75 loss against Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship.
  • Hunter Dickinson (03/14): Dickinson recorded 21 points (9-14 FG, 3-3 FT), eight rebounds, one steal and one block over 30 minutes in Saturday's 68-67 loss to Ohio State.
  • Brandon Johns (03/13): Johns is in the starting lineup for Saturday's game against Ohio State.
  • Isaiah Livers (03/13): Livers is out indefinitely due to a foot injury, according to Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports.
  • Balsa Koprivica (03/13): Koprivica had 17 points (7-11 FG, 3-5 FT), 11 rebounds, four blocks and two assists across 28 minutes in Friday's win over North Carolina.
  • Scottie Barnes (03/13): Barnes had 11 points (4-7 FG, 0-1 3Pt, 3-3 FT), five rebounds, four assists and two steals across 25 minutes off the bench in Friday's win over North Carolina.
  • Franz Wagner (03/13): Wagner compiled 16 points (7-12 FG, 2-5 3Pt), four rebounds, two assists and one steal over 39 minutes in Friday's 79-66 win over Maryland.
  • Mike Smith (03/12): Smith opened the Big Ten Tournament versus Maryland on Friday with a season-best 18 points (6-14 FG, 2-2 3PT, 4-4 FT), a season-best 15 assists, five boards and two steals.
  • Eli Brooks (03/12): Brooks (ankle) will start Friday's Big Ten Tournament opener versus Maryland.
  • Raiquan Gray (03/11): Gray and Florida State won't play Duke on Thursday after the Blue Devils withdrew from the ACC tournament due to a positive COVID-19 test within their program, Jeff Goodman of WatchStadium.com reports.
  • Scottie Barnes (03/11): Barnes and Florida State won't play Duke on Thursday after the Blue Devils withdrew from the ACC tournament due to a positive COVID-19 test within their program, Jeff Goodman of WatchStadium.com reports.
  • M.J. Walker (03/11): Walker and Florida State won't play Duke on Thursday after the Blue Devils withdrew from the ACC tournament due to a positive COVID-19 test within their program, Jeff Goodman of WatchStadium.com reports.
  • Hunter Dickinson (03/09): Dickinson was named the 2020-21 Big Ten Freshman of the Year on Tuesday.
  • Scottie Barnes (03/09): Barnes was named both the 2020-21 ACC Freshman of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year on Monday.