Preview: Colorado vs. Florida State

Game Colorado Buffaloes vs. Florida State Seminoles
Date: March 22nd, 2021 7:45 PM
TV: TBS
Spread: FSU -1
Total: 141.5 Open 139

Preview

Colorado Offense vs. Florida State Defense

Colorado checks in at 13th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Buffaloes shoot 50.4 percent on twos and 37.3 percent on threes for a 52.4 effective field goal percentage.

Florida State is ranked 25th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Florida State opponents make 44.5 percent of their twos and 32.4 percent of their threes for a 46.1 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
  • Colorado is underseeded according to efficiency metrics. The 5th seeded Buffaloes are ranked 8th nationally per Bart Torvik. Their computer numbers suggest they should be closer to a 2 or 3 seed.
  • Colorado is one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, averaging 2.3 years of experience weighted by minutes played, per KenPom.com.
  • Colorado plays at a deliberate pace. The Buffaloes average 66 possessions per game which is one of the slower tempos in college basketball. Florida State prefers to play fast and averages 70 possessions per game meaning this should be a game of contrasting tempo.
  • You can trust Colorado at the line in a close game. The Buffaloes shoot 82 percent at the line for the season.
Extra Possessions
Shot Profile
  • Florida State allows opponents to attempt 40 percent of their shots from 3-point range. The Seminoles have gotten a bit lucky so far this season as opponents only make 32 percent of their threes. On the year, Colorado is shooting 37 from outside and attempts 36 percent of its shots from long distance.
  • Colorado is difficult to guard because it has 3 players on the roster shooting at least 38 percent from 3-point range on over 50 perimeter attempts.
  • Florida State is one of the best teams in the country at defending around the basket. Seminoles opponents are shooting just 50 percent at the rim. Colorado is usually very good at creating quality looks around the basket — finishing 58 percent of its shots withing five-feet — which sets up an interesting battle inside.
  • Colorado’s offense is heavy on mid-range jumpers. The Buffaloes attempt 32 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 42 percent clip.
Style

Florida State Offense vs. Colorado Defense

The Seminoles are ranked 14th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Florida State shoots 52.6 percent on twos and 37.6 percent on threes for a 54 effective field goal percentage.

Colorado’s defense is ranked 22nd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 46.8 percent on twos and 33.3 percent on threes for a 47.9 effective field goal percentage against the Buffaloes.

Basics
  • Florida State’s offense enters the tournament on a cold streak. Over the last 30 days, the Seminoles are ranked 112th in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to 14th for the year.
  • Colorado’s defense needs to get back on track in the NCAA Tournament. Over the last 30 days, the Buffaloes are ranked 74th in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to 22nd overall.
  • Florida State is underseeded according to efficiency metrics. The 4th seeded Seminoles are ranked 10th nationally per Bart Torvik. Their computer numbers suggest they should be closer to a 2 or 3 seed.
  • The Seminoles are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 79.57 inches according to KenPom.com.
  • Florida State plays as fast as any team in the country. The Seminoles average 70 possessions per game. On the other side, Colorado prefers to control the game and does a good job of that. Buffaloes games only average 66 possessions per game
  • Florida State makes 74 percent of its free throws which should come in handy in a close game.
Extra Possessions
  • The game should be fairly turnover neutral on this side of the ball. Florida State turns it over on 20.2 percent of possessions and Colorado forces giveaways on 19.7 percent of possessions.
  • Florida State is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Seminoles grab 34.6 percent of their missed shots. Colorado matches up well with Florida State’s offensive rebounding prowess. The Buffaloes rebound 74.4 percent of their opponents’ misses this season.
  • Florida State is unique because its guards are aggressive on the offensive glass. Perimeter players account for 23.4 percent of the Seminoles’ offensive boards. That should put extra pressure on Colorado’s perimeter players to clean up the glass.
Shot Profile
  • Colorado does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, COLO contests 60 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Florida State’s offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 56 percent of the Seminoles’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • Florida State dominates the paint. The Seminoles score 34.5 points and allow 26.3 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 8.3 points per game.
  • Florida State is difficult to guard because it has 3 players on the roster shooting at least 38 percent from 3-point range on over 50 perimeter attempts.
  • Florida State is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Seminoles shoot 61 percent at the rim and Colorado allows 57 percent shooting inside of five feet.
  • Colorado’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Buffaloes opponents attempt 31 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 36 percent clip. Florida State’s offense shoots 36 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Florida State loves to push the ball in transition. An impressive 20 percent of FSU’s offensive plays are in transition and those transition plays create 16.3 points per game. Colorado’s defense does a great job of limiting transition opportunities and only allows 7.5 points per game in transition.
  • Colorado’s defense excels at preventing assisted field goals and forcing one-on-one play with a style of “no help” defense popularized by Luke Yaklich. The Buffaloes only allow their opponents to record assists on 48.4 percent of made baskets.
  • Florida State’s offense is built around the ball screen and averages 27.5 points per game out of ball screens at 0.86 points per ball screen play. Colorado’s defense is fairly average containing ball screen looks, allowing 0.81 points per ball screen play.

Bottom Line

Will we see an upset? Bart Torvik gives Florida State a 48 percent chance of advancing and predicts a 72-71 final score.

COLO Personnel

#25 McKinley Wright

Role: Domineering Ball Handler
Height: 6'0" | Weight: 196 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Off the Dribble Shooter Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Go-To Guy Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
15.3 4.4 5.9 119.7 26.1% 52.4%

#41 Jeriah Horne

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 220 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Defensive Rebounder Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
11.1 5.8 0.9 117.8 20.7% 56.5%

#21 Evan Battey

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 262 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Mid-Range Specialist Non Shooter Gets to the Line Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10 5.3 1 111.4 21.1% 49.8%

#5 D'Shawn Schwartz

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 232 lbs

Corner 3-Point Specialist Poor Finisher
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.2 4 1.2 102.6 18.5% 49.8%

#12 Jabari Walker

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 200 lbs

Catch and Shoot Offensive Rebounder Defensive Rebounder Smart Shot Selection Go-To Guy Foul Prone Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
7.9 4.4 0.5 118.8 26.1% 63.7%

FSU Personnel

#1 Raiquan Gray

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 260 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Isolation Scorer Defensive Rebounder Gets to the Line
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12 6.4 2.2 112.0 23.1% 54.7%

#23 M.J. Walker

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 213 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Transition Scorer Corner 3-Point Specialist Turnover Prone Catch and Shoot Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.4 2.5 2.5 104.8 22.4% 53.5%

#4 Scottie Barnes

Role: Tall Ball Handler
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 227 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Go-To Guy Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10.5 4.1 4 107.0 25.6% 52.6%

#5 Balsa Koprivica

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 7'1" | Weight: 260 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Finisher Rim Protector Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Gets to the Line
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.3 5.9 0.7 117.0 21.9% 59.7%

#2 Anthony Polite

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 215 lbs

Corner 3-Point Specialist Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Smart Shot Selection Efficient Shooter Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.5 4.4 1.6 118.8 16.7% 59.4%

ATS

Florida State ATS Performance

This Season

Florida State is 13-11-1 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 14 of 25 Florida State games (56%) this season.

Florida State is 2-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 1 of Florida State’s 5 games on neutral floors (20%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
12/2/2020 North Florida W, 86-58 -25.5 W 2.5 149.5 UNDER -5.5
12/9/2020 Indiana W, 69-67 -2.5 L -0.5 140.5 UNDER -4.5
12/12/2020 Florida W, 83-71 -1.5 W 10.5 135.5 OVER 18.5
12/15/2020 Georgia Tech W, 74-61 -8.5 W 4.5 141.5 UNDER -6.5
12/19/2020 UCF L, 74-86 -12.5 L -24.5 134.5 OVER 25.5
12/21/2020 Gardner-Webb W, 72-59 -20 L -7 143 UNDER -12
12/29/2020 at Clemson L, 67-77 2.5 L -7.5 131.5 OVER 12.5
1/13/2021 NC State W, 105-73 -3.5 W 28.5 142.5 OVER 35.5
1/16/2021 North Carolina W, 82-75 -4.5 W 2.5 143.5 OVER 13.5
1/18/2021 at Louisville W, 78-65 2.5 W 15.5 140.5 OVER 2.5
1/23/2021 Clemson W, 80-61 -6.5 W 12.5 135 OVER 6
1/27/2021 Miami W, 81-59 -11.5 W 10.5 141.5 UNDER -1.5
1/30/2021 at Georgia Tech L, 65-76 -4.5 L -15.5 143.5 UNDER -2.5
2/13/2021 Wake Forest W, 92-85 -13.5 L -6.5 142.5 OVER 34.5
2/15/2021 Virginia W, 81-60 -1.5 W 19.5 127.5 OVER 13.5
2/20/2021 at Pittsburgh W, 79-72 -7 P 0 146 OVER 5
2/24/2021 at Miami W, 88-71 -11.5 W 5.5 143 OVER 16
2/27/2021 at North Carolina L, 70-78 -3 L -11 152 UNDER -4
3/3/2021 Boston College W, 93-64 -18.5 W 10.5 155.5 OVER 1.5
3/6/2021 at Notre Dame L, 73-83 -7 L -17 152.5 OVER 3.5
3/12/2021 vs. North Carolina W, 69-66 -2.5 W 0.5 150.5 UNDER -15.5
3/13/2021 vs. Georgia Tech L, 75-80 -4.5 L -9.5 147.5 OVER 7.5
3/20/2021 vs. UNC Greensboro W, 64-54 -10.5 L -0.5 145.5 UNDER -27.5
3/22/2021 vs. Colorado W, 71-53 -1 W 17 139 UNDER -15
3/28/2021 vs. Michigan L, 58-76 2 L -16 143 UNDER -9

Head to Head

Florida State is 1-0-0 against the spread when it plays against Colorado in recorded games since 2021. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/22/2021 vs. Colorado W, 71-53 -1 W 17 139 UNDER -15

Colorado ATS Performance

This Season

Colorado is 18-14-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 15 of 32 Colorado games (46.9%) this season.

Colorado is 4-4-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 5 of Colorado’s 8 games on neutral floors (62.5%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 vs. South Dakota W, 84-61 -14.5 W 8.5 144.5 OVER 0.5
11/27/2020 at Kansas State W, 76-58 -6 W 12 133.5 OVER 0.5
12/8/2020 at Tennessee L, 47-56 4.5 L -4.5 136.5 UNDER -33.5
12/14/2020 Northern Colorado W, 81-45 -14.5 W 21.5 136.5 UNDER -10.5
12/16/2020 Omaha W, 91-49 -23.5 W 18.5 138.5 OVER 1.5
12/20/2020 vs. Washington W, 92-69 10 W 33 133.5 OVER 27.5
12/22/2020 vs. Grand Canyon W, 74-64 -12.5 L -2.5 140 UNDER -2
12/28/2020 at Arizona L, 74-88 1.5 L -12.5 138.5 OVER 23.5
12/31/2020 at USC W, 72-62 2 W 12 139.5 UNDER -5.5
1/2/2021 at UCLA L, 62-65 2 L -1 137.5 UNDER -10.5
1/7/2021 Oregon W, 79-72 -2.5 W 4.5 140.5 OVER 10.5
1/11/2021 at Utah W, 65-58 -3 W 4 136.5 UNDER -13.5
1/14/2021 California W, 89-60 -15 W 14 135 OVER 14
1/16/2021 Stanford W, 77-64 -7.5 W 5.5 140.5 OVER 0.5
1/20/2021 at Washington L, 80-84 -13 L -17 142 OVER 22
1/23/2021 at Washington State W, 70-59 -10 W 1 134.5 UNDER -5.5
1/27/2021 Washington State W, 70-58 -15 L -3 135.5 UNDER -7.5
1/30/2021 Utah L, 74-77 -8.5 L -11.5 137.5 OVER 13.5
2/6/2021 Arizona W, 82-79 -5.5 L -2.5 142 OVER 19
2/8/2021 Oregon State W, 78-49 -12.5 W 16.5 138.5 UNDER -11.5
2/11/2021 at Stanford W, 69-51 -1 W 17 138.5 UNDER -18.5
2/13/2021 at California L, 62-71 -10.5 L -19.5 134.5 UNDER -1.5
2/18/2021 at Oregon L, 56-60 1.5 L -2.5 141 UNDER -25
2/20/2021 at Oregon State W, 61-57 -6.5 L -2.5 137 UNDER -19
2/25/2021 USC W, 80-62 -3 W 15 136.5 OVER 5.5
2/27/2021 UCLA W, 70-61 -6.5 W 2.5 136.5 UNDER -5.5
3/4/2021 Arizona State W, 75-61 -10 W 4 147 UNDER -11
3/11/2021 vs. California W, 61-58 -16 L -13 133 UNDER -14
3/12/2021 vs. USC W, 72-70 -1.5 W 0.5 134 OVER 8
3/13/2021 vs. Oregon State L, 68-70 -8.5 L -10.5 132 OVER 6
3/20/2021 vs. Georgetown W, 96-73 -6.5 W 16.5 138 OVER 31
3/22/2021 vs. Florida State L, 53-71 1 L -17 139 UNDER -15

Head to Head

Colorado is 0-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Florida State in recorded games since 2021. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/22/2021 vs. Florida State L, 53-71 1 L -17 139 UNDER -15
Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Malik Osborne (03/23): Osborne had 11 points (4-8 FG, 1-4 3Pt, 2-3 FT), five rebounds and a steal across 20 minutes off the bench in Monday's win over Colorado.
  • Anthony Polite (03/23): Polite notched a career-high 22 points (8-12 FG, 4-7 3Pt, 2-2 FT) while adding five rebounds, four assists and four steals in Monday's win over Colorado.
  • Jeriah Horne (03/22): Horne posted three points (1-9 FG, 1-6 3Pt, 0-0 FT), eight rebounds and zero assists in 23 minutes during Monday's 71-53 loss to Florida St.
  • D'Shawn Schwartz (03/22): Schwartz tallied 13 points (5-9 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 0-0 FT), six rebounds and two assists across 28 minutes in Monday's 71-53 loss to Florida St.
  • McKinley Wright (03/21): Wright tallied 12 points (4-8 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 3-3 FT), five rebounds and 13 assists across 29 minutes in Saturday's 96-73 win over Georgetown.
  • Jabari Walker (03/21): Walker recorded 24 points (9-10 FG, 5-5 3Pt, 1-1 FT), three rebounds and zero assists in 20 minutes during Saturday's 96-73 win over Georgetown.
  • Balsa Koprivica (03/20): Koprivica finished with 13 points (6-9 FG, 1-2 FT), nine rebounds, two blocks and an assist across 24 minutes in Saturday's win over UNC Greensboro.
  • Raiquan Gray (03/20): Gray delivered 17 points (8-13 FG, 0-2 3Pt, 1-4 FT), seven rebounds, three assists and a block across 31 minutes in Saturday's win over UNC Greensboro.
  • Anthony Polite (03/20): Polite had 12 points (5-8 FG, 0-2 3Pt, 2-2 FT), four rebounds, two assists and a steal across 30 minutes in Saturday's win over UNC Greensboro.
  • Scottie Barnes (03/14): Barnes registered 21 points (8-10 FG, 2-2 3Pt, 3-3 FT), four rebounds and three assists across 29 minutes in Saturday's 80-75 loss against Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship.
  • Balsa Koprivica (03/14): Koprivica had 11 points (4-9 FG, 3-4 FT), 10 rebounds and two blocks across 26 minutes in Saturday's 80-75 loss against Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship.
  • McKinley Wright (03/14): Wright recorded 18 points (6-13 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 5-8 FT), six rebounds and seven assists in 37 minutes during Saturday's 70-68 loss to Oregon St.
  • Balsa Koprivica (03/13): Koprivica had 17 points (7-11 FG, 3-5 FT), 11 rebounds, four blocks and two assists across 28 minutes in Friday's win over North Carolina.
  • Scottie Barnes (03/13): Barnes had 11 points (4-7 FG, 0-1 3Pt, 3-3 FT), five rebounds, four assists and two steals across 25 minutes off the bench in Friday's win over North Carolina.
  • D'Shawn Schwartz (03/13): Schwartz posted nine points (3-6 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 1-2 FT), four rebounds and one assist across 33 minutes in Friday's 72-70 victory over USC.
  • McKinley Wright (03/13): Wright (head) has returned to Friday's game against USC, Pat Rooney of the Boulder Daily Camera reports.
  • Evan Battey (03/12): Battey recorded 15 points (5-7 FG, 0-1 3Pt, 5-7 FT), five rebounds and one assist in 26 minutes during Thursday's 61-58 win over California.
  • Raiquan Gray (03/11): Gray and Florida State won't play Duke on Thursday after the Blue Devils withdrew from the ACC tournament due to a positive COVID-19 test within their program, Jeff Goodman of WatchStadium.com reports.
  • Scottie Barnes (03/11): Barnes and Florida State won't play Duke on Thursday after the Blue Devils withdrew from the ACC tournament due to a positive COVID-19 test within their program, Jeff Goodman of WatchStadium.com reports.
  • M.J. Walker (03/11): Walker and Florida State won't play Duke on Thursday after the Blue Devils withdrew from the ACC tournament due to a positive COVID-19 test within their program, Jeff Goodman of WatchStadium.com reports.
  • Scottie Barnes (03/09): Barnes was named both the 2020-21 ACC Freshman of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year on Monday.
  • Raiquan Gray (03/07): Gray notched 15 points (4-9 FG, 7-7 FT), 10 rebounds, two assists and two steals across 35 minutes Saturday as the Seminoles were upset by Notre Dame.
  • Malik Osborne (03/07): Osborne (ankle) did not attempt a field goal but had a rebound and a steal in eight minutes of action during Saturday's 83-73 loss to Notre Dame.
  • Anthony Polite (03/06): Polite is in the starting lineup for Saturday's game against Notre Dame.
  • D'Shawn Schwartz (03/05): Schwartz tallied 11 points (3-7 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 4-4 FT), four rebounds and one assist in 30 minutes during Thursday's 75-61 win over Arizona St.