Preview: Baylor vs. Gonzaga

Game Baylor Bears vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Date: April 5th, 2021 9:20 PM
TV: CBS
Spread: GONZ -4.5
Total: 159.5 Open: 160

Preview

Baylor Offense vs. Gonzaga Defense

The Bears are ranked 2nd nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Baylor shoots 53.7 percent on twos and 40.8 percent on threes for a 56.6 effective field goal percentage.

Gonzaga’s defense is ranked 6th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 46.6 percent on twos and 32.2 percent on threes for a 47.2 effective field goal percentage against the Bulldogs.

Basics
  • Gonzaga’s defense needs to get back on track in the NCAA Tournament. Over the last 30 days, the Bulldogs are ranked 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to 6th overall.
  • According to KenPom, Baylor is one of the “luckier” teams in the field, ranked 69th nationally in luck, meaning that they’ve won more games than their adjusted efficiency margin stats would indicate.
Extra Possessions
  • Baylor does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Bears score 21.1 points points per game off of turnovers. Gonzaga avoids turnovers for touchdowns, allowing only 10.2 points per game off of giveaways.
  • Baylor is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Bears grab 36.8 percent of their missed shots. Gonzaga matches up well with Baylor’s offensive rebounding prowess. The Bulldogs rebound 76.6 percent of their opponents’ misses this season.
  • Second chance points are crucial to Baylor’s offense. The Bears score 14.4 points off of second chances and only allow 10.2 points per game, outscoring teams by 4.1 points per game just on second chance opportunities. Gonzaga has also been great on the glass this year, outscoring opponents by 2.6 points per game on second chances.
Shot Profile
  • Baylor dominates the paint. The Bears score 35.3 points and allow 29.0 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 6.3 points per game. Gonzaga has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 19.4 points per game in the paint.
  • Baylor is difficult to guard because it has 5 players on the roster shooting at least 38 percent from 3-point range on over 50 perimeter attempts.
  • Baylor is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Bears shoot 62 percent at the rim and Gonzaga allows 53 percent shooting inside of five feet.
  • Gonzaga’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Bulldogs opponents attempt 29 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 37 percent clip. Baylor’s offense shoots 38 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Baylor has an elite transition offense and scores 14.3 points per game in transition, while Gonzaga’s transition defense has been run of the mill and allows 10.5 points per game in transition.
  • Gonzaga’s defense excels at preventing assisted field goals and forcing one-on-one play with a style of “no help” defense popularized by Luke Yaklich. The Bulldogs only allow their opponents to record assists on 43.4 percent of made baskets.
  • Modern basketball is a ball screen game and Baylor’s offense is no exception. The Bears score 27.2 points per game out of ball screens and average 0.96 points per ball screen play. Gonzaga’s defense excels at defending ball screens, allowing just 0.78 points per play which should set up a key strength-on-strength matchup.
  • Baylor runs a lot of isolation actions. The Bears score 8.0 points per game out of isolation at 0.93 points per play. Gonzaga’s defense is fairly average defending isolations. Opponents score 0.85 points per isolation action (including pass-outs) against the Bulldogs.

Gonzaga Offense vs. Baylor Defense

Gonzaga checks in at 1st nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Bulldogs shoot 63.6 percent on twos and 37.4 percent on threes for a 61.1 effective field goal percentage.

Baylor is ranked 29th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Baylor opponents make 48.3 percent of their twos and 33.2 percent of their threes for a 48.9 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
  • The Bulldogs are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 78.13 inches according to KenPom.com.
  • The Bulldogs have a notable size advantage on the inside, their power forwards and centers rank in the 78th percentile in height compared to Baylor’s bigs which rank in the 28th percentile.
  • Gonzaga plays as fast as any team in the country. The Bulldogs average 75 possessions per game.
  • You can trust Gonzaga at the line in a close game. The Bulldogs shoot 74 percent at the line for the season.
Extra Possessions
  • Gonzaga does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Bulldogs only turn it over on 16.5 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a Baylor defense that forces giveaways on 24.8 percent of possessions.
  • Gonzaga does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Bulldogs score 18.9 points points per game off of turnovers. Baylor avoids turnovers for touchdowns, allowing only 11.8 points per game off of giveaways.
  • Second chance points are crucial to Gonzaga’s offense. The Bulldogs score 11.0 points off of second chances and only allow 8.4 points per game, outscoring teams by 2.6 points per game just on second chance opportunities. Baylor has also been great on the glass this year, outscoring opponents by 4.1 points per game on second chances.
  • Gonzaga is unique because its guards are aggressive on the offensive glass. Perimeter players account for 34.8 percent of the Bulldogs’ offensive boards. That should put extra pressure on Baylor’s perimeter players to clean up the glass.
Shot Profile
  • Baylor does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, BAY contests 57 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Gonzaga excels at creating open jumpers. Only 29 percent of the Bulldogs’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • Gonzaga dominates the paint. The Bulldogs score 49.6 points and allow 30.2 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 19.4 points per game. Baylor has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 6.3 points per game in the paint.
  • Gonzaga is one of the best teams in the country at finishing around the basket. The Bulldogs shoot 71 percent at the rim and Baylor allows 60 percent shooting inside of five feet.
  • Baylor’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Bears opponents attempt 27 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 31 percent clip. Gonzaga’s offense shoots 42 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Gonzaga has an elite transition offense and scores 18.5 points per game in transition, while Baylor’s transition defense has been run of the mill and allows 11.3 points per game in transition.
  • Gonzaga is reliant on ball screen screen offense. The Bulldogs score 28.8 points per game out of ball screen actions at 1.03 points per play. Baylor’s defense excels at defending ball screens, allowing just 0.80 points per play which should set up a key strength-on-strength matchup.
  • Gonzaga relies on post-up offense to score. The Bulldogs average 11.1 points per game out of post-up actions. Baylor is fairly average defending the post, allowing 0.93 points per play.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik projects a 85-80 Gonzaga victory over Baylor and gives the Bulldogs a 66 percent chance at picking up the win.

BAY Personnel

#12 Jared Butler

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 195 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Go-To Guy Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
16.5 3.2 4.8 115.1 27.2% 56.5%

#31 MaCio Teague

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 195 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
15.9 4.1 1.6 125.4 20.4% 56%

#45 Davion Mitchell

Role: Domineering Ball Handler
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 205 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
14.1 2.6 5.3 122.0 21.0% 62.7%

#10 Adam Flagler

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 180 lbs

Transition Scorer Corner 3-Point Specialist Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9 2.3 1.4 127.6 17.4% 57.2%

#24 Matthew Mayer

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 225 lbs

Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Defensive Rebounder Go-To Guy Efficient Shooter Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.2 3.8 1 112.1 24.7% 56.8%

GONZ Personnel

#2 Drew Timme

Role: Post Up Big
Height: 6'10" | Weight: 235 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Finisher Roll Man Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Go-To Guy Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
19 7.2 2.3 129.7 26.9% 65.9%

#24 Corey Kispert

Role: Runaround Wing
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 220 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Off Screen Shooter Transition Scorer Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
18.9 5 1.7 132.6 21.0% 65.3%

#1 Jalen Suggs

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 205 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Go-To Guy Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
14 5.5 4.5 110.2 25.3% 55.5%

#11 Joel Ayayi

Role: Reluctant Shooter
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 180 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Transition Scorer Off the Dribble Shooter Smart Shot Selection Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
11.9 7.1 2.8 128.8 16.4% 64%

#3 Andrew Nembhard

Role: Primary Ball Handler
Height: 6'5" | Weight: 193 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9.1 2.4 4.3 123.4 15.1% 55.6%

ATS

Gonzaga ATS Performance

This Season

Gonzaga is 15-14-1 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 16 of 30 Gonzaga games (53.3%) this season.

Gonzaga is 9-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 7 of Gonzaga’s 12 games on neutral floors (58.3%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/26/2020 vs. Kansas W, 102-90 -2.5 W 9.5 147.5 OVER 44.5
11/27/2020 vs. Auburn W, 90-67 14.5 W 37.5 158.5 UNDER -1.5
12/2/2020 vs. West Virginia W, 87-82 -7.5 L -2.5 154 OVER 15
12/19/2020 vs. Iowa W, 99-88 -3.5 W 7.5 173.5 OVER 13.5
12/21/2020 Northwestern State W, 95-57 -38.5 L -0.5 168 UNDER -16
12/22/2020 Northwestern State W, 95-78 -40.5 L -23.5 171.5 OVER 1.5
12/26/2020 vs. Virginia W, 98-75 -7 W 16 139.5 OVER 33.5
12/28/2020 Northern Arizona W, 88-58 -38.5 L -8.5 156.5 UNDER -10.5
1/2/2021 San Francisco W, 85-62 -19.5 W 3.5 162.5 UNDER -15.5
1/7/2021 BYU W, 86-69 -18.5 L -1.5 163.5 UNDER -8.5
1/9/2021 at Portland W, 116-88 -32.5 L -4.5 162.5 OVER 41.5
1/14/2021 Pepperdine W, 95-70 -25.5 L -0.5 163.5 OVER 1.5
1/16/2021 at Saint Mary's W, 73-59 -15.5 L -1.5 146 UNDER -14
1/23/2021 Pacific W, 95-49 -26 W 20 149.5 UNDER -5.5
1/28/2021 at San Diego W, 90-62 -27.5 W 0.5 156 UNDER -4
1/30/2021 at Pepperdine W, 97-75 -22 P 0 163 OVER 9
2/4/2021 at Pacific W, 76-58 -23.5 L -5.5 151.5 UNDER -17.5
2/8/2021 at BYU W, 82-71 -11.5 L -0.5 155.5 UNDER -2.5
2/13/2021 at San Francisco W, 100-61 -16.5 W 22.5 156.5 OVER 4.5
2/18/2021 Saint Mary's W, 87-65 -21 W 1 142.5 OVER 9.5
2/20/2021 San Diego W, 106-69 -32.5 W 4.5 153.5 OVER 21.5
2/25/2021 Santa Clara W, 89-75 -30.5 L -16.5 155 OVER 9
2/27/2021 Loyola Marymount W, 86-69 -25 L -8 153.5 OVER 1.5
3/8/2021 vs. Saint Mary's W, 78-55 -18.5 W 4.5 141.5 UNDER -8.5
3/9/2021 vs. BYU W, 88-78 -14 L -4 154.5 OVER 11.5
3/20/2021 vs. Norfolk State W, 98-55 -34 W 9 154.5 UNDER -1.5
3/22/2021 vs. Oklahoma W, 87-71 -14 W 2 154 OVER 4
3/28/2021 vs. Creighton W, 83-65 -13 W 5 159 UNDER -11
3/30/2021 vs. USC W, 85-66 -9.5 W 9.5 155 UNDER -4
4/3/2021 vs. UCLA W, 93-90 -14 L -11 145.5 OVER 37.5

Head to Head

Gonzaga is 0-1-0 against the spread when it plays against Baylor in recorded games since 2019. The over has hit in 1 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (100%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/23/2019 vs. Baylor W, 83-71 -14 L -2 147.5 OVER 6.5

Baylor ATS Performance

This Season

Baylor is 19-10-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 18 of 29 Baylor games (62.1%) this season.

Baylor is 7-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 7 of Baylor’s 10 games on neutral floors (70%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/28/2020 vs. Louisiana W, 112-82 -20 W 10 147.5 OVER 46.5
11/29/2020 vs. Washington W, 86-52 -11 W 23 149.5 UNDER -11.5
12/2/2020 vs. Illinois W, 82-69 -5.5 W 7.5 144.5 OVER 6.5
12/9/2020 Stephen F. Austin W, 83-52 -23.5 W 7.5 151.5 UNDER -16.5
12/19/2020 at Kansas State W, 100-69 -20.5 W 10.5 136.5 OVER 32.5
12/21/2020 Arkansas-Pine Bluff W, 99-42 -42.5 W 14.5 142 UNDER -1
12/29/2020 Central Arkansas W, 93-56 -33.5 W 3.5 155.5 UNDER -6.5
12/30/2020 Alcorn State W, 105-76 -44 L -15 148 OVER 33
1/2/2021 at Iowa State W, 76-65 -15.5 L -4.5 148.5 UNDER -7.5
1/6/2021 Oklahoma W, 76-61 -11.5 W 3.5 151 UNDER -14
1/9/2021 at TCU W, 67-49 -12.5 W 5.5 144 UNDER -28
1/16/2021 at Texas Tech W, 68-60 -5 W 3 138.5 UNDER -10.5
1/18/2021 Kansas W, 77-69 -9 L -1 139.5 OVER 6.5
1/23/2021 at Oklahoma State W, 81-66 -9 W 6 145.5 OVER 1.5
1/27/2021 Kansas State W, 107-59 -24.5 W 23.5 136.5 OVER 29.5
1/30/2021 Auburn W, 84-72 -14.5 L -2.5 154 OVER 2
2/2/2021 at Texas W, 83-69 -6 W 8 144.5 OVER 7.5
2/23/2021 Iowa State W, 77-72 -24 L -19 147.5 OVER 1.5
2/27/2021 at Kansas L, 58-71 -5 L -18 142 UNDER -13
3/2/2021 at West Virginia W, 94-89 -4.5 W 0.5 149.5 OVER 33.5
3/4/2021 Oklahoma State W, 81-70 -12 L -1 149.5 OVER 1.5
3/7/2021 Texas Tech W, 88-73 -8.5 W 6.5 137.5 OVER 23.5
3/11/2021 vs. Kansas State W, 74-68 -20 L -14 137 OVER 5
3/12/2021 vs. Oklahoma State L, 74-83 -9.5 L -18.5 151 OVER 6
3/19/2021 vs. Hartford W, 79-55 -26 L -2 140.5 UNDER -6.5
3/21/2021 vs. Wisconsin W, 76-63 -6.5 W 6.5 137 OVER 2
3/27/2021 vs. Villanova W, 62-51 -7.5 W 3.5 142.5 UNDER -29.5
3/29/2021 vs. Arkansas W, 81-72 -7 W 2 149 OVER 4
4/3/2021 vs. Houston W, 78-59 -5 W 14 134.5 OVER 2.5

Head to Head

Baylor is 1-0-0 against the spread when it plays against Gonzaga in recorded games since 2019. The over has hit in 1 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (100%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/23/2019 vs. Gonzaga L, 71-83 14 W 2 147.5 OVER 6.5
Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Joel Ayayi (04/04): Ayayi recorded 22 points (9-12 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 2-3 FT), six rebounds and two assists in 42 minutes during Saturday's 93-90 overtime win over UCLA.
  • Jalen Suggs (04/04): Suggs posted 16 points (6-12 FG, 2-5 3Pt, 2-2 FT), five rebounds and six assists across 40 minutes in Saturday's 93-90 overtime victory over UCLA.
  • Drew Timme (03/30): Timme tallied 23 points (10-19 FG, 0-1 3Pt, 3-4 FT), five rebounds and four assists across 31 minutes in Tuesday's 85-66 win over USC.
  • Jalen Suggs (03/30): Suggs recorded 18 points (7-11 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 2-2 FT), 10 rebounds and eight assists in 35 minutes during Tuesday's 85-66 victory over USC.
  • Drew Timme (03/28): Timme recorded 22 points (10-14 FG, 0-1 3Pt, 2-3 FT), six rebounds and four assists in 27 minutes during Sunday's 83-65 win over Creighton.
  • Andrew Nembhard (03/28): Nembhard posted 17 points (7-9 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 0-0 FT), four rebounds and eight assists across 36 minutes in Sunday's 83-65 victory over Creighton.
  • Adam Flagler (03/27): Flagler posted a team-high 16 points (4-6 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 6-6 FT), three rebounds, one assist, and a steal in the win over Villanova on Saturday.
  • Davion Mitchell (03/27): Mitchell had 14 points (7-13 FG, 0-3 3Pt), two assists, two steals, one rebound, and a block in the Sweet Sixteen win over Villanova on Saturday
  • Corey Kispert (03/23): Kispert posted 16 points (5-11 FG, 4-8 3Pt, 2-2 FT), three rebounds and zero assists in 30 minutes during Monday's 87-71 win over Oklahoma.
  • Drew Timme (03/23): Timme tallied 30 points (9-12 FG, 0-0 3Pt, 12-14 FT), 13 rebounds and four assists across 34 minutes in Monday's 87-71 victory over Oklahoma.
  • Anton Watson (03/21): Watson posted 17 points (7-7 FG, 1-1 3Pt, 2-2 FT), seven rebounds and four assists in 24 minutes during Saturday's 98-55 victory over Norfolk St.
  • Joel Ayayi (03/21): Ayayi posted 15 points (6-12 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 2-2 FT), nine rebounds and two assists across 28 minutes in Saturday's 98-55 victory over Norfolk St.
  • Jalen Suggs (03/09): Suggs recorded 23 points (7-15 FG, 4-7 3Pt, 5-8 FT), five rebounds and five assists in 33 minutes during Tuesday's 88-78 victory over BYU.
  • Davion Mitchell (03/09): Mitchell was named the 2020-21 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year on Monday.
  • Joel Ayayi (03/09): Ayayi posted 16 points (7-9 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 0-0 FT), eight rebounds and one assist in 28 minutes during Monday's 78-55 win over Saint Mary's.
  • MaCio Teague (03/08): Teague had 35 points (11-16 FG, 10-12 3Pt, 3-4 FT), three rebounds, an assist and a steal across 36 minutes in Sunday's 88-73 victory over Texas Tech.
  • MaCio Teague (03/03): Teague notched 11 points (5-11 FG, 1-7 3Pt), four rebounds, and two assists in the win over West Virginia on Tuesday.
  • Matthew Mayer (03/03): Mayer came off the bench and provided 18 points (7-12 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 1-1 FT), five rebounds, and four steals in the win over West Virginia on Tuesday.
  • Davion Mitchell (03/03): Mitchell put up 20 points (7-14 FG, 4-7 3Pt, 2-2 FT), five assists, and three rebounds in the win over West Virginia on Tuesday.
  • Jared Butler (03/03): Butler dropped a team-high 25 points (10-21 FG, 5-11 3Pt, 0-1 FT), six assists, three rebounds, and a block in the win over West Virginia on Tuesday.
  • Andrew Nembhard (03/02): Nembhard was named the West Coast Conference Sixth Man of the Year on Tuesday.
  • Jalen Suggs (03/02): Suggs was named the West Coast Conference Newcomer of the Year on Tuesday.
  • Corey Kispert (03/02): Kispert was named the West Coast Conference Player of the Year on Tuesday.
  • Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (02/28): Tchamwa Tchatchoua had two points (1-3 FG) and two personal fouls across 11 minutes off the bench in Saturday's 71-58 loss to Kansas.
  • Drew Timme (02/28): Timme tallied 16 points (5-9 FG, 0-1 3Pt, 6-11 FT), seven rebounds and four assists in 29 minutes during Saturday's 86-69 win over Loyola Marymount.