Preview: Arkansas vs. Baylor

Game Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Baylor Bears
Date: March 29th, 2021 9:57 PM
TV: CBS
Spread: BAY -7.5 Open -6.5
Total: 148 Open: 149.5

Preview

Arkansas Offense vs. Baylor Defense

Arkansas checks in at 51st nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Razorbacks shoot 51.2 percent on twos and 33.3 percent on threes for a 50.7 effective field goal percentage.

Baylor is ranked 34th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Baylor opponents make 48.3 percent of their twos and 33.2 percent of their threes for a 48.9 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
  • Arkansas offense has been struggling over the last month. The Razorbacks are ranked 121st in adjusted offensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 51st for the season.
  • Baylor’s defense has been struggling over the last month. The Bears are ranked 87th in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last 30 days compared to 34th for the season.
  • Arkansas is overseeded according to efficiency metrics. The 3rd seeded Razorbacks are ranked 23rd nationally, per Bart Torvik, and their computer numbers suggest they are more like a 4 or 5 seed.
  • According to KenPom, Arkansas is one of the “luckier” teams in the field, ranked 57th nationally in luck, meaning that they’ve won more games than their adjusted efficiency margin stats would indicate.
  • The Razorbacks are one of the biggest teams in the NCAA Tournament with an average height of 78.08 inches according to KenPom.com.
  • The Razorbacks have a notable size advantage on the inside, their power forwards and centers rank in the 92nd percentile in height compared to Baylor’s bigs which rank in the 28th percentile.
  • Arkansas plays as fast as any team in the country. The Razorbacks average 75 possessions per game.
  • You can trust Arkansas at the line in a close game. The Razorbacks shoot 74 percent at the line for the season.
Extra Possessions
  • Arkansas does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Razorbacks only turn it over on 17 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a Baylor defense that forces giveaways on 24.8 percent of possessions.
  • Arkansas does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Razorbacks score 18.3 points points per game off of turnovers.
  • Second chance points are crucial to Arkansas offense. The Razorbacks score 13.6 points off of second chances and only allow 10.1 points per game, outscoring teams by 3.6 points per game just on second chance opportunities. Baylor has also been great on the glass this year, outscoring opponents by 4.7 points per game on second chances.
  • Arkansas is unique because its guards are aggressive on the offensive glass. Perimeter players account for 30.5 percent of the Razorbacks’ offensive boards. That should put extra pressure on Baylor’s perimeter players to clean up the glass.
Shot Profile
  • Baylor does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, BAY contests 57 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Arkansas offense is fairly average at generating clean catch-and-shoot opportunities, 50 percent of the Razorbacks’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • Arkansas dominates the paint. The Razorbacks score 36.0 points and allow 28.6 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 7.4 points per game. Baylor has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 6.8 points per game in the paint.
  • Arkansas offense doesn’t have a single player shooting 38% or better from 3-point range with over 50 attempts.
  • Baylor’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Bears opponents attempt 27 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 31 percent clip. Arkansas offense shoots 39 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Arkansas has an elite transition offense and scores 17.4 points per game in transition, while Baylor’s transition defense has been run of the mill and allows 11.3 points per game in transition.
  • Arkansas offense is overweight on off-ball screens and cuts compared to the rest of the field and should test Baylor’s defensive discipline off the ball. The Razorbacks average 10.8 points per game via cuts and off-ball screens, scoring 1.05 points per play on those actions. Baylor’s defense excels at defending off-ball sets, allowing just 0.85 points per play.

Baylor Offense vs. Arkansas Defense

Baylor checks in at 3rd nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Bears shoot 53.7 percent on twos and 40.8 percent on threes for a 56.6 effective field goal percentage.

Arkansas is ranked 12th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the season, Arkansas opponents make 46.3 percent of their twos and 33.2 percent of their threes for a 47.6 effective field goal percentage.

Basics
  • According to KenPom, Baylor is one of the “luckier” teams in the field, ranked 69th nationally in luck, meaning that they’ve won more games than their adjusted efficiency margin stats would indicate.
Extra Possessions
  • Baylor does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Bears only turn it over on 16.8 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a Arkansas defense that forces giveaways on 20.3 percent of possessions.
  • Baylor does a terrific job turning defense into offense. The Bears score 21.4 points points per game off of turnovers.
  • The Bears are fantastic on the offensive glass and rebound 36.8 percent of their missed shots. Arkansas is one of the better defensive rebounding teams in the field, grabbing 73.7 percent of opponent misses, which should negate this advantage.
  • Second chance points are crucial to Baylor’s offense. The Bears score 14.6 points off of second chances and only allow 9.9 points per game, outscoring teams by 4.7 points per game just on second chance opportunities. Arkansas has also been great on the glass this year, outscoring opponents by 3.6 points per game on second chances.
Shot Profile
  • Arkansas allows opponents to attempt 38 percent of their shots from 3-point range. ARK opponents are shooting 33 percent from 3-point range while Baylor is shooting 41 percent from outside and attempts 39 percent of its shots from long distance.
  • Baylor dominates the paint. The Bears score 35.7 points and allow 28.9 points per game in the paint, outscoring teams by 6.8 points per game. Arkansas has also been great inside this year, outscoring opponents by 7.4 points per game in the paint.
  • Baylor is difficult to guard because it has 5 players on the roster shooting at least 38 percent from 3-point range on over 50 perimeter attempts.
  • Arkansas is one of the best teams in the country at defending around the basket. Razorbacks opponents are shooting just 52 percent at the rim. Baylor is usually very good at creating quality looks around the basket — finishing 62 percent of its shots withing five-feet — which sets up an interesting battle inside.
Style
  • Baylor has an elite transition offense which should create a significant advantage against Arkansas. The Bears score 14.3 points per game in transition, while Arkansas transition defense has been poor this year, allowing 16.1 points per game.
  • Arkansas defense is unique for its ability to prevent assists. Only 48 percent of made baskets are assisted against the Razorbacks.
  • Baylor’s offense is overweight on off-ball screens and cuts compared to the rest of the field and should test Arkansas defensive discipline off the ball. The Bears average 8.6 points per game via cuts and off-ball screens, scoring 1.04 points per play on those actions. Arkansas defense excels at defending off-ball sets, allowing just 0.84 points per play.
  • Baylor trusts its players to create in one-on-one situations and scores 8.0 points per game out of iso actions and average 0.93 points per isolation play.

Bottom Line

Bart Torvik projects a 79-73 Baylor win over Arkansas and gives the Bears a 71 percent chance at picking up the victory.

ARK Personnel

#5 Moses Moody

Role: Runaround Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 205 lbs

Off Screen Shooter Transition Scorer Corner 3-Point Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
17 5.8 1.6 117.1 21.5% 51.1%

#1 JD Notae

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 195 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Isolation Scorer Mega Usage
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
12.8 3.2 1.9 99.1 28.2% 45.4%

#0 Justin Smith

Role: Reluctant Shooter
Height: 6'7" | Weight: 230 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Finisher Transition Scorer Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
13.8 7.3 1.7 113.1 20.8% 55.5%
🔥🔥🔥: Smith is averaging 19.6 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 5.8 points above his season average.

#11 Jalen Tate

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 175 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Turnover Prone Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10.9 3.8 3.9 105.3 20.1% 53%

#4 Davonte Davis

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 180 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Non Shooter Takes Tough Shots
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.3 4.4 2.1 101.2 19.2% 48.1%
🔥🔥🔥: Davis is averaging 12 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 3.7 points above his season average.

BAY Personnel

#12 Jared Butler

Role: Secondary Ball Handler
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 195 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Go-To Guy Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
16.6 3.3 4.7 115.2 27.3% 56.9%

#31 MaCio Teague

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 195 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Mid-Range Specialist Transition Scorer Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
15.6 4.1 1.6 125.2 20.3% 56.1%

#45 Davion Mitchell

Role: Domineering Ball Handler
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 205 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Transition Scorer Pick Pocket Off the Dribble Shooter Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
14.2 2.6 5.3 122.3 20.9% 63.1%

#10 Adam Flagler

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 180 lbs

Transition Scorer Corner 3-Point Specialist Catch and Shoot Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
9 2.4 1.4 127.4 17.4% 57.5%

#24 Matthew Mayer

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 225 lbs

Pick Pocket Catch and Shoot Defensive Rebounder Go-To Guy Efficient Shooter Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.2 3.8 1 112.6 25.0% 56.8%

ATS

Baylor ATS Performance

This Season

Baylor is 17-10-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 16 of 27 Baylor games (59.3%) this season.

Baylor is 5-3-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 5 of Baylor’s 8 games on neutral floors (62.5%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/28/2020 vs. Louisiana W, 112-82 -20 W 10 147.5 OVER 46.5
11/29/2020 vs. Washington W, 86-52 -11 W 23 149.5 UNDER -11.5
12/2/2020 vs. Illinois W, 82-69 -5.5 W 7.5 144.5 OVER 6.5
12/9/2020 Stephen F. Austin W, 83-52 -23.5 W 7.5 151.5 UNDER -16.5
12/19/2020 at Kansas State W, 100-69 -20.5 W 10.5 136.5 OVER 32.5
12/21/2020 Arkansas-Pine Bluff W, 99-42 -42.5 W 14.5 142 UNDER -1
12/29/2020 Central Arkansas W, 93-56 -33.5 W 3.5 155.5 UNDER -6.5
12/30/2020 Alcorn State W, 105-76 -44 L -15 148 OVER 33
1/2/2021 at Iowa State W, 76-65 -15.5 L -4.5 148.5 UNDER -7.5
1/6/2021 Oklahoma W, 76-61 -11.5 W 3.5 151 UNDER -14
1/9/2021 at TCU W, 67-49 -12.5 W 5.5 144 UNDER -28
1/16/2021 at Texas Tech W, 68-60 -5 W 3 138.5 UNDER -10.5
1/18/2021 Kansas W, 77-69 -9 L -1 139.5 OVER 6.5
1/23/2021 at Oklahoma State W, 81-66 -9 W 6 145.5 OVER 1.5
1/27/2021 Kansas State W, 107-59 -24.5 W 23.5 136.5 OVER 29.5
1/30/2021 Auburn W, 84-72 -14.5 L -2.5 154 OVER 2
2/2/2021 at Texas W, 83-69 -6 W 8 144.5 OVER 7.5
2/23/2021 Iowa State W, 77-72 -24 L -19 147.5 OVER 1.5
2/27/2021 at Kansas L, 58-71 -5 L -18 142 UNDER -13
3/2/2021 at West Virginia W, 94-89 -4.5 W 0.5 149.5 OVER 33.5
3/4/2021 Oklahoma State W, 81-70 -12 L -1 149.5 OVER 1.5
3/7/2021 Texas Tech W, 88-73 -8.5 W 6.5 137.5 OVER 23.5
3/11/2021 vs. Kansas State W, 74-68 -20 L -14 137 OVER 5
3/12/2021 vs. Oklahoma State L, 74-83 -9.5 L -18.5 151 OVER 6
3/19/2021 vs. Hartford W, 79-55 -26 L -2 140.5 UNDER -6.5
3/21/2021 vs. Wisconsin W, 76-63 -6.5 W 6.5 137 OVER 2
3/27/2021 vs. Villanova W, 62-51 -7.5 W 3.5 142.5 UNDER -29.5

Head to Head

We don’t have any head-to-head games on file between these two teams.

Arkansas ATS Performance

This Season

Arkansas is 19-11-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 15 of 30 Arkansas games (50%) this season.

Arkansas is 3-2-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 0 of Arkansas 5 games on neutral floors (0%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 Mississippi Valley State W, 142-62 -36.5 W 43.5 153.5 OVER 50.5
11/28/2020 North Texas W, 69-54 -8.5 W 6.5 149.5 UNDER -26.5
12/2/2020 UT Arlington W, 72-60 -15.5 L -3.5 149.5 UNDER -17.5
12/5/2020 Lipscomb W, 86-50 -16.5 W 19.5 144.5 UNDER -8.5
12/12/2020 Central Arkansas W, 100-75 -23.5 W 1.5 156 OVER 19
12/20/2020 Oral Roberts W, 87-76 -19 L -8 154 OVER 9
12/22/2020 Abilene Christian W, 85-72 -13.5 L -0.5 138 OVER 19
12/30/2020 at Auburn W, 97-85 -3 W 9 145.5 OVER 36.5
1/2/2021 Missouri L, 68-81 -6.5 L -19.5 146 OVER 3
1/6/2021 at Tennessee L, 74-79 8 W 3 142.5 OVER 10.5
1/9/2021 Georgia W, 99-69 -8.5 W 21.5 158.5 OVER 9.5
1/13/2021 at LSU L, 76-92 2.5 L -13.5 156.5 OVER 11.5
1/16/2021 at Alabama L, 59-90 2 L -29 161.5 UNDER -12.5
1/20/2021 Auburn W, 75-73 -4.5 L -2.5 156 UNDER -8
1/23/2021 at Vanderbilt W, 92-71 -7.5 W 13.5 153 OVER 10
1/27/2021 Ole Miss W, 74-59 -5 W 10 142.5 UNDER -9.5
1/30/2021 at Oklahoma State L, 77-81 2 L -2 151.5 OVER 6.5
2/2/2021 Mississippi State W, 61-45 -7 W 9 144 UNDER -38
2/9/2021 at Kentucky W, 81-80 1 W 2 143 OVER 18
2/13/2021 at Missouri W, 86-81 3.5 W 8.5 150 OVER 17
2/16/2021 Florida W, 75-64 -5 W 6 150 UNDER -11
2/24/2021 Alabama W, 81-66 1.5 W 16.5 157.5 UNDER -10.5
2/27/2021 LSU W, 83-75 -5.5 W 2.5 162.5 UNDER -4.5
3/2/2021 at South Carolina W, 101-73 -6.5 W 21.5 156.5 OVER 17.5
3/6/2021 Texas A&M W, 87-80 -14.5 L -7.5 136.5 OVER 30.5
3/12/2021 vs. Missouri W, 70-64 -5 W 1 150 UNDER -16
3/13/2021 vs. LSU L, 71-78 -3.5 L -10.5 162.5 UNDER -13.5
3/19/2021 vs. Colgate W, 85-68 -8.5 W 8.5 161.5 UNDER -8.5
3/21/2021 vs. Texas Tech W, 68-66 1.5 W 3.5 141 UNDER -7
3/27/2021 vs. Oral Roberts W, 72-70 -11.5 L -9.5 157 UNDER -15

Head to Head

We don’t have any head-to-head games on file between these two teams.

Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Adam Flagler (03/27): Flagler posted a team-high 16 points (4-6 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 6-6 FT), three rebounds, one assist, and a steal in the win over Villanova on Saturday.
  • Davion Mitchell (03/27): Mitchell had 14 points (7-13 FG, 0-3 3Pt), two assists, two steals, one rebound, and a block in the Sweet Sixteen win over Villanova on Saturday
  • Justin Smith (03/23): Smith recorded 20 points (9-11 FG, 2-3 FT), six rebounds, two assists and one block during Sunday's NCAA Tournament win against Texas Tech.
  • Jaylin Williams (03/21): Williams is in the starting lineup for Sunday's game against Texas Tech, according to Scottie Bordelon of Arkansas Online.
  • Jaylin Williams (03/20): Williams failed to score (0-1 FG) while recording three rebounds over six minutes during Friday's 85-68 win over Colgate.
  • Moses Moody (03/15): Moody recorded 28 points (8-16 FG, 4-10 3Pt, 8-12 FT), nine rebounds, two steals and one assist during Saturday's SEC Tournament loss to LSU.
  • Jaylin Williams (03/14): Head coach Eric Musselman confirmed after Saturday's 78-71 loss to LSU that Williams (COVID-19 protocol) will be back for the NCAA Tournament, Kyle Deckelbaum of KATV reports.
  • Jaylin Williams (03/13): Williams (COVID protocol) isn't available for Saturday's game against LSU, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Jaylin Williams (03/12): Williams (COVID-19 protocol) isn't expected to play in Friday's game against Missouri, Scottie Bordelon of the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette reports.
  • JD Notae (03/09): Notae was named the 2020-21 SEC Sixth Man of the Year on Tuesday.
  • Moses Moody (03/09): Moody was named the 2020-21 SEC Freshman of the Year on Tuesday.
  • Davion Mitchell (03/09): Mitchell was named the 2020-21 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year on Monday.
  • Jalen Tate (03/08): Tate tallied 22 points (9-17 FG, 2-6 3Pt, 2-2 FT), seven rebounds and four assists during Saturday's win over Texas A&;M.
  • MaCio Teague (03/08): Teague had 35 points (11-16 FG, 10-12 3Pt, 3-4 FT), three rebounds, an assist and a steal across 36 minutes in Sunday's 88-73 victory over Texas Tech.
  • Jaylin Williams (03/06): Williams (not injury related) will not be available for Saturday's game against Texas A&;M, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • MaCio Teague (03/03): Teague notched 11 points (5-11 FG, 1-7 3Pt), four rebounds, and two assists in the win over West Virginia on Tuesday.
  • Matthew Mayer (03/03): Mayer came off the bench and provided 18 points (7-12 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 1-1 FT), five rebounds, and four steals in the win over West Virginia on Tuesday.
  • Davion Mitchell (03/03): Mitchell put up 20 points (7-14 FG, 4-7 3Pt, 2-2 FT), five assists, and three rebounds in the win over West Virginia on Tuesday.
  • Jared Butler (03/03): Butler dropped a team-high 25 points (10-21 FG, 5-11 3Pt, 0-1 FT), six assists, three rebounds, and a block in the win over West Virginia on Tuesday.
  • Jaylin Williams (03/02): Williams will miss Tuesday's game against South Carolina due to COVID-19 protocol, Nikki Chavanelle of Rivals.com reports.
  • Justin Smith (03/01): Smith provided 19 points (8-12 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 2-2 FT), 10 rebounds, one assist, one block and one steal in Saturday's win over LSU.
  • Moses Moody (03/01): Moody tallied 18 points (3-14 FG, 1-5 3Pt, 11-14 FT), eight rebounds and five assists during Saturday's win over LSU.
  • Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (02/28): Tchamwa Tchatchoua had two points (1-3 FG) and two personal fouls across 11 minutes off the bench in Saturday's 71-58 loss to Kansas.
  • Jared Butler (02/24): Butler had 18 points (5-10 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 5-8 FT), three rebounds, three steals and two assists across 31 minutes in Tuesday's 77-72 victory over Iowa State.
  • Adam Flagler (02/24): Flagler had 22 points (7-15 FG, 4-10 3Pt, 4-4 FT), two rebounds and a steal across 28 minutes off the bench in Tuesday's 77-72 victory over Iowa State.