Preview: Abilene Christian vs. UCLA

Game Abilene Christian Wildcats vs. UCLA Bruins
Date: March 22nd, 2021 5:15 PM
TV: TBS
Spread: UCLA -5.5 Open -5
Total: 132 Open: 133

Preview

Abilene Christian Offense vs. UCLA Defense

The Wildcats are ranked 203rd nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Abilene Christian shoots 49.3 percent on twos and 36.4 percent on threes for a 51.2 effective field goal percentage.

UCLA’s defense is ranked 61st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 49.8 percent on twos and 33.8 percent on threes for a 50.1 effective field goal percentage against the Bruins.

Basics
  • Abilene Christian is one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, averaging 2.28 years of experience weighted by minutes played, per KenPom.com.
  • The Wildcats’ rotation only has an average height of 75.12 inches according to KenPom.com, making them one of the shortest teams in the field.
  • Abilene Christian plays as fast as any team in the country. The Wildcats average 71 possessions per game.
Extra Possessions
  • The game should be fairly turnover neutral on this side of the ball. Abilene Christian turns it over on 19.2 percent of possessions and UCLA forces giveaways on 17.4 percent of possessions.
Shot Profile
  • UCLA allows opponents to attempt 39 percent of their shots from 3-point range. UCLA opponents are shooting 33 percent from 3-point range while Abilene Christian is shooting 34 percent from outside and attempts 37 percent of its shots from long distance.
  • UCLA does a fantastic job of contesting jump shots. On the season, UCLA contests 63 percent of if its opponents catch and shoot attempts. Conversely, Abilene Christian excels at creating open jumpers. Only 40 percent of the Wildcats’ catch and shoot attempts have been contested this season.
  • Abilene Christian’s offense can be somewhat one-dimensional because there’s only one player (Mason) on the roster who shoots 38% or better from 3-point range on 50+ attempts.
  • UCLA’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Bruins opponents attempt 26 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 42 percent clip. Abilene Christian’s offense shoots 33 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • Abilene Christian is one of the better passing teams in the country and 66.5 percent of its made field goals are assisted this season. On the other side, UCLA’s defense excels at preventing assisted field goals and forcing one-on-one play. The Bruins only allow their opponents to record assists on 48.4 percent of made baskets.
  • Abilene Christian runs more off-ball sets than the average Division I team. The Wildcats score 12.5 points per game out of off-ball screens and cuts at 1.01 points per play. UCLA’s defense struggles to defend off-ball actions. Opponents score 1.09 points per play against the Bruins.
  • Abilene Christian has one of the most dominant post-up offenses in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 17.3 points per game on 0.96 points per post-up play. UCLA’s defense should be up to the challenge, allowing 0.83 points per post-up play.

UCLA Offense vs. Abilene Christian Defense

The Bruins are ranked 12th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. UCLA shoots 50.1 percent on twos and 37.2 percent on threes for a 51.9 effective field goal percentage.

Abilene Christian’s defense is ranked 32nd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot 46.8 percent on twos and 29.7 percent on threes for a 46 effective field goal percentage against the Wildcats.

Basics
  • Abilene Christian can get into trouble given its tendency to commit fouls. The Wildcats send their opponents to the free-throw line 41 times per 100 shot attempts. That’s one of the worst rates in the country and UCLA gets to the stripe 32 times per 100 field goal attempts.
Extra Possessions
  • UCLA does a great job of maximizing its offensive possessions and valuing the basketball. The Bruins only turn it over on 15.9 percent of their offensive possessions. That sets up a strength on strength battle against a Abilene Christian defense that forces giveaways on 26.5 percent of possessions.
  • UCLA is unique because its guards are aggressive on the offensive glass. Perimeter players account for 27.9 percent of the Bruins’ offensive boards. That should put extra pressure on Abilene Christian’s perimeter players to clean up the glass.
Shot Profile
  • UCLA is difficult to guard because it has 3 players on the roster shooting at least 38 percent from 3-point range on over 50 perimeter attempts.
  • Abilene Christian controls the area around the hoop, allowing 53 percent shooting inside of five-feet. UCLA makes 55 percent of its interior shots which is about average in college basketball. .
  • UCLA’s offense is heavy on mid-range jumpers. The Bruins attempt 35 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 45 percent clip.
  • Abilene Christian’s defense does a terrific job of funneling offensive players into pull-up 2-point attempts. Wildcats opponents attempt 28 percent of their shots from the mid-range and connect at a 35 percent clip. UCLA’s offense shoots 45 percent on its mid-range attempts.
Style
  • UCLA runs more isolation sets than the average Division I team. The Bruins score 7.7 points per game out of ioslations at 0.92 points per play. Abilene Christian’s defense excels at defending one-on-one, allowing just 0.65 points per isolation play.

Bottom Line

According to Bart Torvik, UCLA is a 69-61 favorite with a 79 percent chance of advancing.

AC Personnel

#34 Kolton Kohl

Role: Post Up Big
Height: 7'0" | Weight: 240 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Rim Protector Non Shooter Offensive Rebounder Mega Usage Gets to the Line Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
11.9 4.8 1.4 113.5 28.6% 54.8%

#32 Joe Pleasant

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'8" | Weight: 220 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Offensive Rebounder Avoids Turnovers Below 65% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10.5 5.5 1.2 103.6 23.1% 50%

#20 Coryon Mason

Role: Runaround Wing
Height: 6'0" | Weight: 190 lbs

Off Screen Shooter Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Avoids Turnovers
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10.6 2.2 2.4 109.6 19.2% 52.4%

#42 Clay Gayman

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 220 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Pick Pocket Go-To Guy Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
8.2 3.3 1.2 103.8 25.5% 49.7%
❄️❄️❄️: Gayman is averaging 4.8 points per game over the last 5 games. That’s 3.4 points below his season average.

#12 Makhi Morris

Role: Runaround Wing
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 184 lbs

Pick Pocket
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
6.6 1.9 1.2 101.2 18.0% 53.7%

UCLA Personnel

#3 Johnny Juzang

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 210 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Mid-Range Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Go-To Guy Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter Above 80% FT
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
14.7 4.1 1.6 108.4 25.6% 49.5%

#4 Jaime Jaquez

Role: Tall Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 220 lbs

Glue Guy Off the Dribble Shooter Isolation Scorer Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
11.9 6.2 1.5 116.0 18.8% 55.1%

#1 Jules Bernard

Role: Spot Up Wing
Height: 6'6" | Weight: 205 lbs

Mid-Range Specialist Catch and Shoot Isolation Scorer Takes Tough Shots Avoids Turnovers Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10.7 4.9 1.6 112.8 20.5% 52.4%

#10 Tyger Campbell

Role: Domineering Ball Handler
Height: 5'11" | Weight: 180 lbs

Ball Screen Creator Distributor Mid-Range Specialist Off the Dribble Shooter Isolation Scorer Poor Finisher Takes Tough Shots
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10.3 2.2 5.5 106.8 21.2% 45.2%

#2 Cody Riley

Role: Versatile Big
Height: 6'9" | Weight: 255 lbs

Post-Up Scorer Mid-Range Specialist Catch and Shoot Non Shooter Defensive Rebounder Takes Tough Shots Go-To Guy Gets to the Line Efficient Shooter
Pts Reb Ast ORtg Usage eFG%
10 5.4 1.1 102.1 26.5% 55.1%

ATS

UCLA ATS Performance

This Season

UCLA is 16-14-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 17 of 30 UCLA games (56.7%) this season.

UCLA is 5-2-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 5 of UCLA’s 7 games on neutral floors (71.4%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 at San Diego State L, 58-73 -3.5 L -18.5 134 UNDER -3
11/27/2020 vs. Pepperdine W, 107-98 7.5 W 16.5 143.5 OVER 61.5
12/3/2020 Seattle W, 78-52 -20 W 6 136.5 UNDER -6.5
12/6/2020 California W, 76-56 -10.5 W 9.5 130.5 OVER 1.5
12/9/2020 San Diego W, 83-56 -17.5 W 9.5 137 OVER 2
12/11/2020 Marquette W, 69-60 -4.5 W 4.5 140.5 UNDER -11.5
12/19/2020 vs. Ohio State L, 70-77 1.5 L -5.5 135.5 OVER 11.5
12/31/2020 Utah W, 72-70 -7.5 L -5.5 136 OVER 6
1/2/2021 Colorado W, 65-62 -2 W 1 137.5 UNDER -10.5
1/7/2021 at Arizona State W, 81-75 -1.5 W 4.5 150.5 OVER 5.5
1/9/2021 at Arizona W, 81-76 3 W 8 139.5 OVER 17.5
1/14/2021 Washington State W, 91-61 -9.5 W 20.5 131.5 OVER 20.5
1/16/2021 Washington W, 81-76 -14.5 L -9.5 141 OVER 16
1/21/2021 at California W, 61-57 -9 L -5 136.5 UNDER -18.5
1/23/2021 at Stanford L, 72-73 -4.5 L -5.5 138.5 OVER 6.5
1/30/2021 Oregon State W, 57-52 -11.5 L -6.5 135 UNDER -26
2/6/2021 at USC L, 48-66 3.5 L -14.5 135.5 UNDER -21.5
2/11/2021 at Washington State L, 73-81 -4 L -12 130 OVER 24
2/13/2021 at Washington W, 64-61 -9.5 L -6.5 141.5 UNDER -16.5
2/18/2021 Arizona W, 74-60 -1.5 W 12.5 140 UNDER -6
2/20/2021 Arizona State W, 80-79 -7.5 L -6.5 145.5 OVER 13.5
2/25/2021 at Utah W, 76-61 -1.5 W 13.5 136 OVER 1
2/27/2021 at Colorado L, 61-70 6.5 L -2.5 136.5 UNDER -5.5
3/3/2021 at Oregon L, 74-82 4 L -4 134 OVER 22
3/6/2021 USC L, 63-64 2.5 W 1.5 135.5 UNDER -8.5
3/11/2021 vs. Oregon State L, 79-83 -5 L -9 133.5 OVER 28.5
3/18/2021 vs. Michigan State W, 86-80 2 W 8 135.5 OVER 30.5
3/20/2021 vs. BYU W, 73-62 3.5 W 14.5 138.5 UNDER -3.5
3/22/2021 vs. Abilene Christian W, 67-47 -4.5 W 15.5 133 UNDER -19
3/28/2021 vs. Alabama W, 88-78 6.5 W 16.5 145 OVER 21

Head to Head

UCLA is 1-0-0 against the spread when it plays against Abilene Christian in recorded games since 2021. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/22/2021 vs. Abilene Christian W, 67-47 -4.5 W 15.5 133 UNDER -19

Abilene Christian ATS Performance

This Season

Abilene Christian is 18-6-0 against the spread this year. The over has hit in 14 of 24 Abilene Christian games (58.3%) this season.

Abilene Christian is 6-1-0 against the spread at neutral sites this year. The over has hit in 2 of Abilene Christian’s 7 games on neutral floors (28.6%) this season.

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
11/25/2020 vs. East Tennessee State W, 70-47 -1.5 W 21.5 136.5 UNDER -19.5
11/27/2020 vs. Austin Peay W, 80-72 2 W 10 144 OVER 8
11/28/2020 vs. Omaha W, 70-58 7.5 W 19.5 143 UNDER -15
12/9/2020 at Texas Tech L, 44-51 15.5 W 8.5 131.5 UNDER -36.5
12/22/2020 at Arkansas L, 72-85 13.5 W 0.5 138 OVER 19
1/2/2021 Lamar W, 83-65 -13.5 W 4.5 134.5 OVER 13.5
1/6/2021 at Houston Baptist W, 66-63 -16 L -13 148.5 UNDER -19.5
1/16/2021 SE Louisiana W, 76-42 -15.5 W 18.5 133 UNDER -15
1/20/2021 at Sam Houston State L, 57-64 -3.5 L -10.5 140.5 UNDER -19.5
1/23/2021 Central Arkansas W, 93-58 -13 W 22 142.5 OVER 8.5
1/27/2021 Stephen F. Austin W, 82-62 -4 W 16 137 OVER 7
1/30/2021 at Incarnate Word W, 75-67 -15.5 L -7.5 130 OVER 12
2/6/2021 at Lamar W, 77-62 -13 W 2 137.5 OVER 1.5
2/8/2021 at Texas A&M-CC W, 82-69 -16 L -3 131 OVER 20
2/10/2021 Houston Baptist W, 88-59 -20 W 9 144 OVER 3
2/13/2021 Texas A&M-CC W, 83-55 -19.5 W 8.5 132.5 OVER 5.5
2/24/2021 Sam Houston State W, 86-72 -7.5 W 6.5 140.5 OVER 17.5
2/27/2021 at Central Arkansas L, 82-84 -17 L -19 145.5 OVER 20.5
3/3/2021 at Stephen F. Austin W, 63-61 1 W 3 144 UNDER -20
3/6/2021 Incarnate Word W, 85-60 -20.5 W 4.5 131.5 OVER 13.5
3/12/2021 vs. Lamar W, 93-71 -13 W 9 132 OVER 32
3/13/2021 vs. Nicholls W, 79-45 -6.5 W 27.5 143.5 UNDER -19.5
3/20/2021 vs. Texas W, 53-52 9 W 10 140 UNDER -35
3/22/2021 vs. UCLA L, 47-67 4.5 L -15.5 133 UNDER -19

Head to Head

Abilene Christian is 0-1-0 against the spread when it plays against UCLA in recorded games since 2021. The over has hit in 0 out of 1 recorded head-to-head games (0%).

Date Opp Result Spread Cover By Total Over By
3/22/2021 vs. UCLA L, 47-67 4.5 L -15.5 133 UNDER -19
Note: Our ATS data dates back to the 2017-18 season.

News

News Updates

News updates via RotoWire.
  • Jaime Jaquez (03/28): Jaquez posted 17 points (6-13 FG, 2-6 3Pt, 3-4 FT), eight rebounds and three assists in 45 minutes during Sunday's 88-78 overtime win over Alabama.
  • David Singleton (03/28): Singleton tallied 15 points (4-5 FG, 3-4 3Pt, 4-5 FT), three rebounds and zero assists across 20 minutes in Sunday's 88-78 overtime victory over Alabama.
  • Cody Riley (03/23): Riley tallied 12 points (5-7 FG, 0-0 3Pt, 2-6 FT), 12 rebounds and one assist in 31 minutes during Monday's 67-47 victory over Abilene Christian.
  • Johnny Juzang (03/23): Juzang recorded 17 points (7-15 FG, 3-7 3Pt, 0-0 FT), three rebounds and one assist across 27 minutes in Monday's 67-47 win over Abilene Christian.
  • Cody Riley (03/21): Riley posted three points (1-1 FG, 0-0 3Pt, 1-2 FT), three rebounds and one assist across 18 minutes in Saturday's 73-62 victory over BYU.
  • Johnny Juzang (03/21): Juzang posted 27 points (10-16 FG, 3-7 3Pt, 4-5 FT), five rebounds and zero assists across 38 minutes in Saturday's 73-62 victory over BYU.
  • Johnny Juzang (03/20): Juzang is in the starting lineup for Saturday's game against BYU.
  • Johnny Juzang (03/19): Coach Mick Cronin hopes to have Juzang (ankle) available for Saturday's NCAA Tournament clash with BYU, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports.
  • Johnny Juzang (03/19): Juzang suffered a right ankle sprain during Thursday's overtime win over Michigan State, Ben Bolch of the Los Angeles Times reports.
  • Tyger Campbell (03/19): Campbell tallied seven points (2-6 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 2-2 FT), zero rebounds and four assists across 34 minutes in Wednesday's 86-80 overtime victory over Michigan St.
  • Jules Bernard (03/19): Bernard recorded 11 points (4-8 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 2-4 FT), eight rebounds and two assists in 38 minutes during Wednesday's 86-80 overtime win over Michigan St.
  • Jaime Jaquez (03/19): Jaquez posted 27 points (11-20 FG, 3-4 3Pt, 2-4 FT), four rebounds and two assists across 45 minutes in Wednesday's 86-80 overtime victory over Michigan St.
  • Jalen Hill (03/18): Hill (personal) won't play in Thursday's game against Michigan State, Ben Bolch of the Los Angeles Times reports.
  • Cody Riley (03/12): Riley recorded seven points (2-7 FG, 0-0 3Pt, 3-4 FT), six rebounds and one assist in 27 minutes during Thursday's 83-79 overtime loss to Oregon St.
  • Johnny Juzang (03/12): Juzang posted 12 points (5-10 FG, 1-6 3Pt, 1-2 FT), two rebounds and one assist in 24 minutes during Thursday's 83-79 overtime loss to Oregon St.
  • Mac Etienne (03/11): Etienne will return to the bench for Thursday's game against Oregon State.
  • Johnny Juzang (03/11): Juzang (ankle) is among the starters for Thursday's game against Oregon State.
  • Johnny Juzang (03/09): Coach Mick Cronin was hopeful that Juzang (ankle) would be able to play in Thursday's game against Oregon State, Ben Bolch of the Los Angeles Times reports.
  • Jaime Jaquez (03/06): Jaquez recorded 12 points (5-10 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 0-1 FT), five rebounds and one assist in 38 minutes during Saturday's 64-63 loss to USC.
  • Mac Etienne (03/06): Etienne is in the starting lineup for Saturday's game against USC.
  • Jules Bernard (03/04): Bernard posted 23 points (10-16 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 0-1 FT), three rebounds and four assists across 39 minutes in Wednesday's 82-74 loss to Oregon.
  • Johnny Juzang (02/28): Juzang tallied 25 points (7-12 FG, 3-4 3Pt, 8-8 FT), five rebounds and one assist across 37 minutes in Saturday's 70-61 loss to Colorado.
  • Jules Bernard (02/26): Bernard recorded 19 points (7-10 FG, 4-6 3Pt, 1-1 FT), four rebounds and three assists across 35 minutes in Thursday's 76-61 victory over Utah.
  • Jalen Hill (02/23): Hill (personal) still hasn't rejoined the team, 247Sports.com reports.
  • Cody Riley (02/21): Riley tallied 17 points (6-6 FG, 0-0 3Pt, 5-5 FT), four rebounds and zero assists in 19 minutes during Saturday's 80-79 win over Arizona St.